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NASA NTRS1986

Molecular clouds in Orion and Monoceros

About one-eighth of a well-sampled 850 deg. sq. region of Orion and Monoceros shows CO emission coming from either local clouds (d < 1 kpc) lying as much as 25 deg. from the galactic plane or from more distant objects located within a few degrees of the plane. Local giant clouds associated with Orion A and B have enhanced temperatures and densities near their western edges possibly due to compression by a high pressure region created by approx.10 supernovae that occurred in the Orion OB association. Another giant cloud associated with Mon R2 may be related to the Orion clouds. Two filamentary clouds (one possibly 300 pc long but 10 pc wide) may represent a new class of object. An expanding ring of clouds concentric with the H II region ionized by lambda Ori probably constitute fragments of the original cloud from which lambda Ori formed; the gas pressure of the H II region and the rocket effect probably disrupted the original cloud. At a distance of 3 kpc, a large (250 x 100 pc) and massive (7-11x10 to the 5th power solar mass) cloud was found with the unusual combination of low temperatures (T sub R < 2.7 K) and wide spectral lines (approx. 7 km /sec). Most of the signs of star formation expected for such a massive cloud being absent, this may be a young cloud that has not yet started to form stars. The approx. 15 large clouds found in the outer galaxy (1 approx. 206 deg. - 220 deg.) probably lie in two spiral arms. The distribution of outer galaxy clouds and a comparison of the properties of these clouds and those of local clouds are given.

Maddalena, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue crack growth model RANDOM2 user manual, appendix 1

The FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is documented. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Included in this user manual are details regarding the theoretical background of RANDOM2, input data, instructions and a sample problem illustrating the use of RANDOM2. Appendix A gives information on the physical quantities, their symbols, FORTRAN names, and both SI and U.S. Customary units. Appendix B includes photocopies of the actual computer printout corresponding to the sample problem. Appendices C and D detail the IMSL, Ver. 10(1), subroutines and functions called by RANDOM2 and a SAS/GRAPH(2) program that can be used to plot both the probability density function (p.d.f.) and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.).

Boyce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue strength reduction model: RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 user manual, appendix 2

The FORTRAN programs RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 are documented. They are based on fatigue strength reduction, using a probabilistic constitutive model. They predict the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given fatigue strength. Included in this user manual are details regarding the theoretical backgrounds of RANDOM3 and RANDOM4. Appendix A gives information on the physical quantities, their symbols, FORTRAN names, and both SI and U.S. Customary units. Appendix B and C include photocopies of the actual computer printout corresponding to the sample problems. Appendices D and E detail the IMSL, Version 10(1), subroutines and functions called by RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 and SAS/GRAPH(2) programs that can be used to plot both the probability density functions (p.d.f.) and the cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.).

Boyce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS1988

Bayes classification of terrain cover using normalized polarimetric data

The normalized polarimetric classifier (NPC) which uses only the relative magnitudes and phases of the polarimetric data is proposed for discrimination of terrain elements. The probability density functions (PDFs) of polarimetric data are assumed to have a complex Gaussian distribution, and the marginal PDF of the normalized polarimetric data is derived by adopting the Euclidean norm as the normalization function. The general form of the distance measure for the NPC is also obtained. It is demonstrated that for polarimetric data with an arbitrary PDF, the distance measure of NPC will be independent of the normalization function selected even when the classifier is mistrained. A complex Gaussian distribution is assumed for the polarimetric data consisting of grass and tree regions. The probability of error for the NPC is compared with those of several other single-feature classifiers. The classification error of NPCs is shown to be independent of the normalization function.

Yueh, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Building a generalized distributed system model

A modeling tool for both analysis and design of distributed systems is discussed. Since many research institutions have access to networks of workstations, the researchers decided to build a tool running on top of the workstations to function as a prototype as well as a distributed simulator for a computing system. The effects of system modeling on performance prediction in distributed systems and the effect of static locking and deadlocks on the performance predictions of distributed transactions are also discussed. While the probability of deadlock is considerably small, its effects on performance could be significant.

Mukkamala, Ravi↗
NASA NTRS1992

A possible galactic association of bursts showing cyclotron lines

Fifteen KONUS bursts and one HEAO burst showing cyclotron lines have well measured positions. If these are due to strongly magnetized neutron stars then we expect them to be associated with the galactic disk with a scale height of about 500 pc as expected for old neutron stars. The simplest way to test this hypothesis would be to test for a concentration along galactic latitude /b/ = 0. We got a marginal indication of such a concentration, and the probability that the 16 events are isotropically distributed is 0.02. We also show that this result is not in conflict with the present BATSE data set.

De Jager, O. C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Climatological Study of Cloud to Ground Lightning Strikes in the Vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center

Lightning strike location and peak current are monitored operationally in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area by the Cloud to Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS). The present study compiles ten years of CGLSS data into a climatological database of all strikes recorded within a 20-mile radius of space shuttle launch platform LP39A, which serves as a convenient central point. The period of record (POR) for the database runs from January 1, 1993 to December 31, 2002. Histograms and cumulative probability curves are produced to determine the distribution of occurrence rates for the spectrum of strike intensities (given in kA). Further analysis of the database provides a description of both seasonal and interannual variations in the lightning distribution.

Burns, Lee↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Study Conducted on Sensor-Based Engine Life Calculation

Turbine engine life management is a very complicated process to ensure the safe operation of an engine subjected to complex usage. The challenge of life management is to find a reasonable compromise between the safe operation and the maximum usage of critical parts to reduce maintenance costs. The commonly used "cycle count" approach does not take the engine operation conditions into account, and it oversimplifies the calculation of the life usage. Because of the shortcomings, many engine components are regularly pulled for maintenance before their usable life is over. And, if an engine has been running regularly under more severe conditions, components might not be taken out of service before they exceed their designed risk of failure. The NASA Glenn Research Center and its industrial and academic partners have been using measurable parameters to improve engine life estimation. This study was based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 typical flights under various operating conditions. First a closed-loop engine model was developed to simulate the engine operation across the mission profile and a thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage model was used to calculate the actual damage during takeoff, where the maximum TMF accumulates. Next, a Weibull distribution was used to estimate the implied probability of failure for a given accumulated cycle count. Monte Carlo simulations were then employed to find the profiles of the TMF damage under different operating assumptions including parameter uncertainties. Finally, probabilities of failure for different operating conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the importance of a sensor-based damage calculation in order to better manage the risk of failure and on-wing life.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗
NASA NTRS2003

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗
NASA NTRS2011

Bounding Species Distribution Models

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Stohlgren, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States from 1985-2012: The Emerging Dominance of Forest Decline

Evidence of shifting dominance among major forest disturbance agent classes regionally to globally has been emerging in the literature. For example, climate-related stress and secondary stressors on forests (e.g., insect and disease, fire) have dramatically increased since the turn of the century globally, while harvest rates in the western US and elsewhere have declined. For shifts to be quantified, accurate historical forest disturbance estimates are required as a baseline for examining current trends. We report annual disturbance rates (with uncertainties) in the aggregate and by major change causal agent class for the conterminous US and five geographic subregions between 1985 and 2012. Results are based on human interpretations of Landsat time series from a probability sample of 7200 plots (30 m) distributed throughout the study area. Forest disturbance information was recorded with a Landsat time series visualization and data collection tool that incorporates ancillary high-resolution data. National rates of disturbance varied between 1.5% and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. Throughout the time series, national harvest disturbance rates varied between one and two percent, and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily forested regions of the US (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). During the first part of the time series, national disturbance rates largely reflected trends in harvest disturbance. Beginning in the mid-90s, forest decline-related disturbances associated with diminishing forest health (e.g., physiological stress leading to tree canopy cover loss, increases in tree mortality above background levels), especially in the Mountain West and Lowland West regions of the US, increased dramatically. Consequently, national disturbance rates greatly increased by 2000, and remained high for much of the decade. Decline-related disturbance rates reached as high as 8% per year in the western regions during the early-2000s. Although low compared to harvest and decline, fire disturbance rates also increased in the early- to mid-2000s. We segmented annual decline-related disturbance rates to distinguish between newly impacted areas and areas undergoing gradual but consistent decline over multiple years. We also translated Landsat reflectance change into tree canopy cover change information for greater relevance to ecosystem modelers and forest managers, who can derive better understanding of forest-climate interactions and better adapt management strategies to changing climate regimes. Similar studies could be carried out for other countries where there are sufficient Landsat data and historic temporal snapshots of high-resolution imagery.

Cohen, Warren B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SHERLOC: Results of the first 350 sols of operations

On February 18th 2021, the Perseverance rover landed in Jezero crater, Mars. This site was chosen because orbiter data analysis provides evidence that the crater hosted a stream-fed lake during the Martian Noachian period. The Octavia Butler landing site is located ~1.9 km east of the remnants of a river delta. Deltaic and lacustrine sediments can preserve biosignatures, making Jezero crater a prime target for Mars sample return science. One of the seven instruments on Perseverance’s science payload is SHERLOC –Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman and Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals. SHERLOC combines fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy with microscopic imaging to analyze surface material to better understand the history of the aqueous environments recorded in the rocks of Jezero crater and to search for potential biosignatures. SHERLOC imaging obtains high spatial resolution images of geological targets to identify grain-scale structure and texture. SHERLOC spectroscopy enables high-sensitivity detection, characterization, and spatially resolved correlation of trace organic materials. Native fluorescence emissions from aromatic organic species allow for detection and classification of aromatic organic molecules, whereas Raman scattered photons from molecules allow identification of functional groups of organics, chemicals, and minerals. In the first 300 sols, SHERLOC has analyzed 3 natural surfaces, and 5 abraded rock patches created during the Crater Floor Campaign within Jezero crater. SHERLOC has been able to identify phosphates, amorphous/microcrystalline silicate (AMS), olivine, sulfates, and carbonates in abraded patches in the green zone campaign within Jezero Crater Máaz and Séítah formations. Within these detections we have begun to tell the story of what this crater was like when it was full of liquid water over 3 billion years ago. In each of these samples we have identified fluorescence features that are likely aromatic organics native to the rock interiors. We have identified multiple unique fluorescence signatures, within each of the abraded patches. The organic signatures have either been widely distributed over an extended area, which is probably due to planetary wide dust, or have spatially resolved locations that are collocated with different mineral signatures. Note: Additional information available on attachment.

L. W. Beegle↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results

This report describes the results from Phase II of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds at the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A seven year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. A PC-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool was created to display the data quickly.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

NASA B-57B Severe Storms Flight Program

Plots of winds encountered in-flight are presented for a severe turbulence case from JAWS flight 7 (near Denver on the afternoon of July 15, 1982). During the flight the B-57B showed a 30-knot increase in airspeed over a distance of about 426 ft and then a more gradual decrease of 40 to 50 knots over a distance of about 3.2 miles. This suspected outflow feature was associated with downdraft in excess of 20 knots. The horizontal wind direction changed almost 180 deg during the pass through the feature, and the intensity of velocity differences decreased for all three components within the downdraft. Calculated probability density functions for u, v, and w showed a jagged character; and distributions for Delta-u, Delta-v, and Delta-w were distinctly non-Gaussian. Based on skewness and kurtosis values, the data could probably best be modeled by a Pearson type VII (Student's t) distribution.

Painter, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Einstein imaging observations of clusters with a bimodal mass distribution

Einstein imaging observations of four X-ray clusters of galaxies characterized by a double X-ray surface brightness and thus mass distribution are presented. The clusters A98, A115, A1750 and SC 0627-54 were found to exhibit two enhancements in their X-ray surface brightness distributions in observations made with the Einstein Imaging Proportional Counter. Calculations of the probability that the clusters represent chance superpositions indicate that the double clusters are physically associated. The radial distributions of the components are inconsistent with those of single point sources, and have been used to derive cluster luminosities which are typical of rich clusters. Masses of the subclusters are also found to be typical of bound and virialized clusters with gas contributing 10%. Within the framework of the hierarchical theory of galactic clustering, the double clusters are suggested to represent an intermediate evolutionary stage before the merger of subclusters into a relaxed Coma-type cluster.

Forman, W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A Gaussian measure of quantum phase noise

We study the width of the semiclassical phase distribution of a quantum state in its dependence on the average number of photons (m) in this state. As a measure of phase noise, we choose the width, delta phi, of the best Gaussian approximation to the dominant peak of this probability curve. For a coherent state, this width decreases with the square root of (m), whereas for a truncated phase state it decreases linearly with increasing (m). For an optimal phase state, delta phi decreases exponentially but so does the area caught underneath the peak: all the probability is stored in the broad wings of the distribution.

Schleich, Wolfgang P.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗