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Predictive Modeling to Assess and Address Challenges and Limitations Associated with Clinical Care and Decision Support in Deep Space
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for assessing and integrating the risk of failure in a multivariate system. While it is often applied by engineers designing complex machines, it could also be applied to humans to assess the probability of a health “failure” treating diseases as the multiple “variables” and the human as the “complex machine.” The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was developed to apply PRA to assess medical risk for exploration spaceflight and inform the design of medical systems for space flight. The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault tree probabilistic techniques to classify risk in the space flight environment by leveraging the inherent knowledge of complex space flight system design and testing to quantify risk. However, in harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of “How do we balance astronaut health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on exploration space missions?” remains a profoundly challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the Human Research Program’s efforts to represent space fight human health and performance risks quantitatively.
Computational Model Prediction and Biological Validation Using Simplified Mixed Field Exposures for the Development of a GCR Reference Field
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Predictive Modeling to Assess and Address Challenges and Limitations Associated with Clinical Care and Decision Support in Deep Space
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NAIRAS Model Predictions of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Surface to Low-Earth Orbit
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Evaluation of the spaceflight cardiovascular risk using the clinical prediction model Astro-CHARM and the NASA Radiation Risk Model
- Exposure to space radiation may pose a risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight. - The CVD risk should be quantified to plan future long-duration space missions such as the manned flight to Mars. - Assessing CVD risk is complicated by its multifactorial nature, where an individual’s risk is strongly influenced by risk factors such as family history, blood pressure, and lipid profiles. - In the NASA Space Radiation Risk Model, the metrics of radiation exposure-induced cases (REIC) and radiation exposure-induced death (REID) are used to quantify the risk attributable to radiation over a lifetime after exposure.
Evaluation of the Spaceflight Cardiovascular Disease Risk Using the Clinical Prediction Model Astro-CHARM and the NASA Radiation Risk Model
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Comparison of IMPACT Model Predictions of Medical Events to Observed Medical Events from ISS and STS Missions
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Toward Predictive Models of Launch Ascent Depressurization and Induced Particle Redistribution
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Forecasting Tomorrow(T): Exploring Cutting-Edge Weather Prediction Models and AI Architectures
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Predictive Models for Radiation Heat Transfer Through Fibrous Insulations
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Test Particle Model Predictions of SEP Electron Transport and Precipitation at Mars
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Improved Aura/OMI Solar Spectral Irradiances: Comparisons With Independent Data Sets and Model Predictions
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The Encounter of the Parker Solar Probe and a Comet-like Object Near the Sun: Model Predictions and Measurements
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Recovery Act. Development and Validation of an Advanced Stimulation Prediction Model for Enhanced Geothermal Systems
This research project aims to develop and validate an advanced computer model that can be used in the planning and design of stimulation techniques to create engineered reservoirs for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. The specific objectives of the proposal are to; Develop a true three-dimensional hydro-thermal fracturing simulator that is particularly suited for EGS reservoir creation; Perform laboratory scale model tests of hydraulic fracturing and proppant flow/transport using a polyaxial loading device, and use the laboratory results to test and validate the 3D simulator; Perform discrete element/particulate modeling of proppant transport in hydraulic fractures, and use the results to improve understand of proppant flow and transport; Test and validate the 3D hydro-thermal fracturing simulator against case histories of EGS energy production; and Develop a plan to commercialize the 3D fracturing and proppant flow/transport simulator. The project is expected to yield several specific results and benefits. Major technical products from the proposal include; A true-3D hydro-thermal fracturing computer code that is particularly suited to EGS; Documented results of scale model tests on hydro-thermal fracturing and fracture propping in an analogue crystalline rock; Documented procedures and results of discrete element/particulate modeling of flow and transport of proppants for EGS applications; and Database of monitoring data, with focus of Acoustic Emissions (AE) from lab scale modeling and field case histories of EGS reservoir creation.