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Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER’s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER?s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use. PowerPoint for conference that was reviewed in PRS and LRS PRS/CON-25-05379 and INL/CON-25-82946

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Atomic Oxygen Durability of Second Surface Silver Microsheet Glass Concentrators

Second surface silver microsheet glass concentrators are being developed for potential use in future solar dynamic space power systems. Traditional concentrators are aluminum honeycomb sandwich composites with either aluminum or graphite epoxy face sheets, where a reflective aluminum layer is deposited onto an organic leveling layer on the face sheet. To protect the underlying layers, a SiO2 layer is applied on top of the aluminum reflective layer. These concentrators may be vulnerable to atomic oxygen degradation due to possible atomic oxygen attack of the organic layers at defect sites in the protective and reflective coatings. A second surface microsheet glass concentrator would be inherently more atomic oxygen durable than these first surface concentrators. In addition, a second surface microsheet glass concentrator design provides a smooth optical surface and allows for silver to be used as a reflective layer, which would improve the reflectivity of the concentrator and the performance of the system. A potential threat to the performance of second surface microsheet glass concentrators is atomic oxygen attack of the underlying silver at seams and edges or at micrometeoroid and debris (MMD) impacts sites. Second surface silver microsheet glass concentrator samples were fabricated and tested for atomic oxygen durability. The samples were iteratively exposed to an atomic oxygen environment in a plasma asher. Samples were evaluated for potential degradation at fabrication seams, simulated MMD impact sites, and edges. Optical microscopy was used to evaluate atomic oxygen degradation. Reflectance was obtained for an impacted sample prior to and after atomic oxygen exposure. After an initial atomic oxygen exposure to an effective fluence of approx. 1 x 10(exp 21) atoms/cm(exp 2), oxidation of the silver at defect sites and edges was observed. Exposure to an additional approx. 1 x 10(exp 21) atoms/cm(exp 2) caused no observed increase in oxidation. Oxidation at an impact site caused negligible changes in reflectance. In all cases oxidation was found to be confined to the vicinity of the seams, impact sites, edges or defect sites. Asher to in-space atomic oxygen correlation issues will be addressed.

deGroh, Kim K.↗

Rotor Re-Design for the SSME Fuel Flowmeter

The present report describes the process of redesigning a new rotor for the SSME Fuel Flowmeter. The new design addresses the specific requirement of a lower rotor speed which would allow the SSME operation at 1 15% rated power level without reaching a blade excitation by the wakes behind the hexagonal flow straightener upstream at frequencies close to the blade natural frequency. A series of calculations combining fleet flowmeters test data, airfoil fluid dynamics and CFD simulations of flow patterns behind the flowmeter's hexagonal straightener has led to a blade twist design alpha = alpha (radius) targeting a kf constant of 0.8256. The kf constant relates the fuel volume flow to the flowmeter rotor speed, for this particular value 17685 GPM at 3650 RPM. Based on this angle distribution, two actual blade designs were developed. A first design using the same blade airfoil as the original design targeted the new kf value only. A second design using a variable blade chord length and airfoil relative thickness targeted simultaneously the new kf value and an optimum blade design destined to provide smooth and stable operation and a significant increase in the blade natural frequency associated with the first bending mode, such that a comfortable margin could be obtained at 115% RPL. The second design is a result of a concurrent engineering process, during which several iterations were made in order to achieve a targeted blade natural frequency associated with the first bending mode of 1300 Hz. Water flow tests preliminary results indicate a kf value of 0.8179 for the f-irst design, which is within 1% of the target value. The second design rotor shows a natural frequency associated with the first bending mode of 1308 Hz, and a water-flow calibration constant of kf 0.8169.

Marcu, Bogdan↗

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2007

Topics covered include: Flexible Skins Containing Integrated Sensors and Circuitry; Artificial Hair Cells for Sensing Flows; Video Guidance Sensor and Time-of-Flight Rangefinder; Optical Beam-Shear Sensors; Multiple-Agent Air/Ground Autonomous Exploration Systems; A 640 512-Pixel Portable Long-Wavelength Infrared Camera; An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications; Microstrip Antenna Arrays on Multilayer LCP Substrates; Applications for Subvocal Speech; Multiloop Rapid-Rise/Rapid Fall High-Voltage Power Supply; The PICWidget; Fusing Symbolic and Numerical Diagnostic Computations; Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning; Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current; JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK; XML Flight/Ground Data Dictionary Management; Cross-Compiler for Modeling Space-Flight Systems; Composite Elastic Skins for Shape-Changing Structures; Glass/Ceramic Composites for Sealing Solid Oxide Fuel Cells; Aligning Optical Fibers by Means of Actuated MEMS Wedges; Manufacturing Large Membrane Mirrors at Low Cost; Double-Vacuum-Bag Process for Making Resin- Matrix Composites; Surface Bacterial-Spore Assay Using Tb3+/DPA Luminescence; Simplified Microarray Technique for Identifying mRNA in Rare Samples; High-Resolution, Wide-Field-of-View Scanning Telescope; Multispectral Imager With Improved Filter Wheel and Optics; Integral Radiator and Storage Tank; Compensation for Phase Anisotropy of a Metal Reflector; Optical Characterization of Molecular Contaminant Films; Integrated Hardware and Software for No-Loss Computing; Decision-Tree Formulation With Order-1 Lateral Execution; GIS Methodology for Planning Planetary-Rover Operations; Optimal Calibration of the Spitzer Space Telescope; Automated Detection of Events of Scientific Interest; Representation-Independent Iteration of Sparse Data Arrays; Mission Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers; and More About Software for No-Loss Computing.

Source record↗

DIII-D's role as a national user facility in enabling the commercialization of fusion energy

The path to fusion in the United States requires partnership between public and private sector. While the private sector provides the vigor to take some of the major steps necessary, there is a depth of expertise and capability in the public sector that is vital to resolving feasible approaches. As an open national user facility, DIII-D provides a crucial testbed to develop the required new technologies and approaches in relevant conditions. It has unparalleled potential to meet this challenge, thanks to its extreme flexibility and world leading diagnostics. This provides a basis to rapidly develop solutions that project to future reactors with confidence. The program has thus been redeveloped to enable public and private sector engagement and testing of new concepts. A new technology program has been launched to resolve plasma interacting technologies. With modest heating upgrades, the facility can confront the crucial “Integrated Tokamak Exhaust and Performance” gap, to resolve core, exhaust and technology solutions together. The device is also being redeveloped as a training facility, with dedicated student run time, a mentorship program, and open access to all opportunity roles, part of wider efforts to diversify and open pathways through inclusion, access, and equity. This exciting agenda is enabling scientists and technology researchers to pioneer the solutions needed for a Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP) and ITER this decade. As a national user facility, DIII D has singular potential to provide the tools, teams, and insight necessary, to do its part in moving the United States rapidly toward the commercialization of fusion energy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of a framework for sequential Bayesian design of experiments: Application to a pilot-scale solvent-based CO 2 capture process

In this paper, a methodology is developed for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) for process systems and applied to a solvent-based CO 2 capture system. In this approach, the prior knowledge of the system is used to prioritize process data collection at specific operating conditions. These data are then incorporated into a Bayesian inference methodology for updating a stochastic model by refining estimations of its underlying parameters, and the updated model is then used to generate the next set of test runs. Thus, the new knowledge obtained from the data is used to guide subsequent iterations of the experimental runs, ensuring that the overall data collection is maximally informative given that most experimental campaigns, especially at pilot or higher-scale plants, are costly, time-consuming, and resource-limited. The test run objective for this work was to minimize the maximum model prediction uncertainty for key output variables, but the methodology is generic and can be readily applied to other test run objectives. This methodology is applied to an aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) pilot plant campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama, USA. The SDoE framework was utilized for two iterations, while collecting 18 sets of data representing different process conditions, and this resulted in an overall average reduction in uncertainty of approximately 50% in the prediction of CO 2 capture percentage. Moreover, 11 additional data sets were obtained with variation of absorber packing height for further model validation. This work shows the capability of the SDoE framework to maximize learning given limited resources, allowing for the reduction of model uncertainty, which is of great importance for many applications including reduction of technical risk associated with scale-up and economic analysis.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Bayesian optimization to design a novel x-ray shaping device

In radiation therapy, x-ray dose must be precisely sculpted to the tumor, while simultaneously avoiding surrounding organs at risk. This requires modulation of x-ray intensity in space and/or time. Typically, this is achieved using a multi leaf collimator (MLC) - a complex mechatronic device comprising over one hundred individually powered tungsten ‘leaves’ that move in or out of the radiation field as required. Here, an all-electronic x-ray collimation concept with no moving parts is presented, termed “SPHINX”: Scanning Pencil-beam High-speed Intensity-modulated X-ray source. SPHINX utilizes a spatially distributed bremsstrahlung target and collimator array in conjunction with magnetic scanning of a high energy electron beam to generate a plurality of small x-ray “beamlets.” A simulation framework was developed in Topas Monte Carlo incorporating a phase space electron source, transport through user defined magnetic fields, bremsstrahlung x-ray production, transport through a SPHINX collimator, and dose in water. This framework was completely parametric, meaning a simulation could be built and run for any supplied geometric parameters. This functionality was coupled with Bayesian optimization to find the best parameter set based on an objective function which included terms to maximize dose rate for a user defined beamlet width while constraining inter-channel cross talk and electron contamination. Designs for beamlet widths of 5, 7, and 10 mm 2 were generated. Each optimization was run for 300 iterations and took approximately 40 h on a 24-core computer. For the optimized 7-mm model, a simulation of all beamlets in water was carried out including a linear scanning magnet calibration simulation. Finally, a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism was developed and used to estimate dose rate under various conditions. The optimized 5–, 7–, and 10-mm models had beamlet widths of 5.1 , 7.2 , and 10.1 mm 2 and dose rates of 3574, 6351, and 10 015 Gy/C, respectively. The reduction in dose rate for smaller beamlet widths is a result of both increased collimation and source occlusion. For the simulation of all beamlets in water, the scanning magnet calibration reduced the offset between the collimator channels and beam centroids from 2.9 ±1.9 mm to 0.01 ±0.03 mm. A slight reduction in dose rate of approximately 2% per degree of scanning angle was observed. Based on a back-of-envelope dose rate formalism, SPHINX in conjunction with next-generation linear accelerators has the potential to achieve substantially higher dose rates than conventional MLC-based delivery, with delivery of an intensity modulated 100 x 100 mm 2 field achievable in 0.9 to 10.6 s depending on the beamlet widths used. Bayesian optimization was coupled with Monte Carlo modeling to generate SPHINX geometries for various beamlet widths. A complete Monte Carlo simulation for one of these designs was developed, including electron beam transport of all beamlets through scanning magnets, x-ray production and collimation, and dose in water. These results demonstrate that SPHINX is a promising candidate for sculpting radiation dose with no moving parts, and has the potential to vastly improve both the speed and robustness of radiotherapy delivery. A multi-beam SPHINX system may be a candidate for delivering magavoltage FLASH RT in humans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Overview of Multi-Layer Metal Insulation Development for Small Stirling Convertors at NASA GRC

The small Stirling convertor currently under development at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is designed to produce one watt of electrical power from eight watts of heat. Previous radioisotope power systems (RPS) made use of the General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) which produces 250 watts of heat but is unsuitable for a one-watt Stirling convertor. The only heat source available is the Light-Weight Radioisotope Heating Unit (LWRHU) which produces one watt of heat and is primarily used to provide heat to electronics and instrumentation to maintain their appropriate operating temperature. Unfortunately, the LWRHU has a heat flux of 272 W/m-squared (watts per square meter) compared to the GPHS heat flux of 6000 W/m-squared which greatly increases the demands on the insulation to ensure that enough of the heat produced is available to the convertor and not lost to the environment. An analysis was performed that showed that the insulation must have a thermal conductivity of 0.005 W/m squared -K (watts per square meter per Kelvin) or better for the system to function. A multi-layer metal insulation package was designed and a prototype was fabricated and tested to investigate the feasibility of this design. The prototype did not meet the requirements; however, the improved thermal model generated using the test data will allow for a second iteration to be developed that has a much higher confidence and meets the performance requirements.

Goodell, Daniel↗

Overview of MultiLayer Metal Insulation Development for Small Stirling Convertors at NASA Glenn Research Center

A small Stirling convertor is currently under development at the NASA Glenn Research Center to produce one watt of electrical power from eight watts of heat. Previous radioisotope power systems made use of the General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) which produces 250 watts of heat but is unsuitable for a one-watt Stirling convertor. The only other qualified heat source available is the Light-Weight Radioisotope Heating Unit (LWRHU), which produces one watt of heat and is primarily used to provide heat to electronics and instrumentation to maintain their appropriate operating temperature. Unfortunately, the LWRHU has a heat flux of 272 W/meters squared compared to the GPHS heat flux of 6000 W/m2 which greatly increases the demands on the insulation to ensure that enough of the heat produced is available to the convertor and not lost to the environment. An analysis was performed that showed that the insulation must have an effective thermal conductivity of 0.005 W/m·K or better for the system to function. A multi-layer metal insulation package was designed and a prototype was fabricated and tested to investigate the feasibility of this design. While the prototype did not meet the requirements perfectly, the lessons learned are being used to generate an improved thermal model using the test data so that a second iteration can developed that will meet the performance requirements with a much higher confidence.

Daniel D Goodell↗

Electric Sail Tether Deployment System for CubeSats

An Electric Sail (E-Sail) propulsion system consists of long, thin tethers - positively-charged wires extending radially and symmetrically outward from a spacecraft. Tethers must be biased using a high-voltage power supply to ensure that the solar wind produces thrust. While the E-Sail concept shows great promise for flying heliopause missions with higher characteristic acceleration than solar sails, there are significant technical challenges related to deploying and controlling multiple tethers. A typical full-scale design involves a hub and spoke arrangement of 10 to 100 tethers, each 20 km long. In the last 20 years, there have been multiple space mission failures due to tether deployment and control issues, and most configurations involved a single tether. This paper describes an effort to develop and test a simple yet robust single-tether deployment system for a two-6U CubeSat configuration. The project included the following: a) Tether dynamic modeling/simulation b) E-Sail single-tether prototype development and testing c) Space environmental effects testing to identify best materials for further development. These three areas of investigation were needed to provide technical rationale for an E-Sail flight demonstration mission that is expected to be proposed for the 2022 time frame. The project team used an “agile” engineering approach in which E-Sail single-tether prototype designs were iteratively developed and tested to solve problems and identify design improvements. The agile approach was ideal for this low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) project because tether deployer development involved many unknowns in prototype development that could only be discovered through iterative cycles of construction and testing. Extensive modeling and simulation were accomplished for three types of tether deployment: a) Stage 1: propulsive separation with one 6U fixed b) Stage 2: propulsive spin-up with one 6U fixed c) Stage 3: propulsive spin-up with both 6Us free Simulation results were valuable for understanding the propulsive and braking forces needed for controlled tether deployment. This paper describes the evolution, insights, and test/ performance data related to the resultant single-tether two-6U E-Sail test article which has been demonstrated in a test laboratory. The development effort suggests near-term work needed to achieve a useful flight demonstration, and provides ideas for how multiple-tether deployment systems might evolve going forward. A planned next-generation E-Sail prototype will include autonomous propulsive tether deployment while monitoring tether tension, location on the floor, distance between tether ends, acceleration, velocity, and propellant used.

Tinker, Michael↗

Distributed Energy Management for Networked Microgrids with Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation

For the cooperative operation of networked microgrids, a distributed energy management considering network operational objectives and constraints is proposed in this work. Considering various ownership and privacy requirements of microgrids, utility directly interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) and demand response, a distributed optimization is proposed for obtaining optimal network operational objectives with constraints satisfied through iteratively updated price signals. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm is utilized to solve the formulated distributed optimization. The proposed distributed energy management provides microgrids, utility-directly interfaced DERs and responsive demands the opportunity of contributing to better network operational objectives while preserving their privacy and autonomy. Results of numerical simulation using a networked microgrids system consisting of several microgrids, utility directly interfaced DERs and responsive demands validate the soundness and accuracy of the proposed distributed energy management. The proposed method is further tested on a practical two-microgrid system located in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, and the applicability of the proposed strategy is validated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulation and Analysis of Opportunistic MSPA for Multiple Cubesat Deployments

We describe a software approach for simultaneous demodulation and decoding of multiple frequency- multiplexed spacecraft across multiple ground stations. The approach involves the use of a single ground antenna with wide enough aperture to receive multiple angularly adjacent spacecraft simultaneously. This technique uses a wide-band RF signal digitizer coupled with easily and cheaply duplicated software-receiver modules to independently process the frequency-channelized downlink signals from the spacecraft. This approach relaxes the need for realizable modems at each antenna, for example in the Deep-SpaceNetwork (DSN), and can also function as a delayed data retrieval method for cubesat missions with routine science data return. Thus, we hope that this solution can enable more efficient utilization of DSN assets. We concentrate on a simulation similar to the proposed Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) mission from a geometric perspective. To that end, the simulated scenario involves ten secondary cubesats deployed and tracked for a span of four days (the modeled motion over the first four days of the mission does not include any Trajectory Correction Maneuvers (TCMs) that may be necessary as the cubesats approach the moon). Transmissions from the cubesats may be received through a combination of DSN ground sites based on visibility. The cubesats are assumed to utilize typical cubesat transmit powers and a waveform similar to that of the Iris radio. One cubesat is chosen as the “target” and is considered tracked by all ground-stations throughout the simulation (i.e., it is consistently at the center of the main lobe of each ground station antenna when the ground station is in view of the cubesat in terms of elevation angle). The simulation effort involves synthesizing a wideband signal that includes the ten cubesats across a large bandwidth due to each cubesat having its own center-frequency in X-band, near 8.4 GHz. Each signal is characterized by its own Doppler-frequency shift and free-space path-loss computed through the underlying geometry of the simulation as well as the cubesat transmit power. Finally, each cubesat signal experiences a unique antenna gain at each ground station due to the underlying antenna pattern and spacecraft-ground station geometry. We establish two interesting findings: First, the link-budget for the EM-1-like scenario is almost completely limited by the angle between the center of the antenna main beam and the cubesat, which means that the signal-to-noise ratio is wholly adequate for demodulation and decoding at the simulated bitrates unless the cubesat exits the main beam. Secondly, and fortunately due to the use of a software radio architecture, we show that it is possible to successfully receive signals from most cubesats for the entire 4-day simulation. Due to the signal-to-noise ratio being sufficient for demodulation even after the side-lobe’s 17dB reduction in SNR, the software radio can still demodulate such cubesats as long as the radio is capable of re-establishing carrier lock as the cubesats leave the main beam and enter the side-lobe. Considering that the target application utilizes offline processing, a loss of lock can be detected and lock can be re-established by iterating over the data. Extensive simulations demonstrate these results.

Abraham, Douglas S.↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Tool: Coupling an External Plant Code

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a framework to support dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA) with the aim to develop standalone software to perform the dynamic HRA calculations. Within the HRA, human actions in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are predicated by plant states, and human actions influence the plant. In other words, plant operations are necessarily recursive, and it becomes challenging to model complex human-plant interactions. Consequently, we have linked two software simulations that complement those shortcomings. RELAP5-3D—the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP; Aumiller, Tomlinson, and Bauer 2001) is the foundational thermal-hydraulic software used to model nuclear systems. Using RELAP5-3D, we have simulated the plant operations proceeding according to procedures developed to address emergent situations in NPPs. Plant operations include various actions such as the operator checking plant parameters, as well as actions that are continuously performed over time until a specific parameter reaches certain criteria. That means that HUNTER and RELAP5-3D exchange information with each other and should be carried out simultaneously over time. To simulate plant operations, which represent the actual operator checks of plant parameters and corresponding manual control actions, changes in plant status are identified through simulation and performed according to the criteria and order of the procedure. Thus, the goal of coupling HUNTER with RELAP5-3D is to facilitate synchronous coupling, where human and plant models provide iterative feedback loops that drive the course of actions. The advantage of coupling with RELAP5-3D to serve as the external environment module in HUNTER is the ability to customize the plant model and streamline for particular model applications. In this paper, we will address the key features of the coupling and the coupling structure built to perform the feedback loops.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Computational Study of Flow Interactions in Coaxial Rotors

Although the first idea of coaxial rotors appeared more than 150 years ago, most helicopters have used single main-rotor/tail-rotor combination. Since reactive moments of coaxial rotors are canceled by contra-rotation, no tail rotor is required to counter the torque generated by the main rotor. Unlike the single main rotor design that distributes power to both main and tail rotors, all of the power for coaxial rotors is used for vertical thrust. Thus, no power is wasted for anti-torque or directional control. The saved power helps coaxial rotors reach a higher hover ceiling than single rotor helicopters. Another advantage of coaxial rotors is that the overall rotor diameter can be reduced for a given vehicle gross weight because each rotor provides a maximum contribution to vertical thrust to overcome vehicle weight. However, increased mechanical complexity of the hub has been one of the challenges for manufacturing coaxial rotorcraft. Only the Kamov Design Bureau of Russia had been notably successful in production of coaxial helicopters until Sikorsky built X2, an experimental compound helicopter. Recent developments in unmanned aircraft systems and high-speed rotorcraft have renewed interest in the coaxial configuration. Multi-rotors are frequently used for small electric unmanned rotorcraft partly due to mechanical simplicity. The use of multiple motors provides redundancy as well as cost-efficiency. The multi-rotor concept has rarely been used until recently because of its inherent stability and control problems. However, advances in inexpensive electronic flight control systems have opened the floodgates for small drones using multirotors. Coaxial rotors have started to appear in some multi-rotor configurations. Small coaxial rotors have often been designed using a hundred year old approach that is "sketch, build, fly, and iterate." In that approach, there is no systematic way to explore trade-offs or determine logical next steps. It is neither possible to account for multiple real-world constraints up front in design nor possible to know what performance is possible with a given design. Since unmanned vehicles are sized and optimized for the particular mission, a modern low-fidelity conceptual design and sizing tool that has been used for the design of large helicopters can be used for design of small coaxial rotorcraft. However, unlike most helicopters with single main rotor, the interactions between the upper and lower rotors emerge as an important factor to consider in design because an increase in performance of a multi-rotor system is not proportional to the number of rotors. Interference losses and differences in thrusts between the upper and lower rotors were investigated by theoretical methods as well as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. In this work, hybrid turbulence models are used to investigate the physics of interactions between coaxial rotors and a fuselage that are not well understood. Present study covers not only small-scale drones but also large-scale coaxial rotors for heavy-lifting missions. Considering the recently proposed FAA drone rules that require the flight only in visual line-of-sight, a large multirotor might be used as an airborne carrier for launch and recovery of unmanned aircraft systems with a human operator onboard. For applications to civil operations, their aerodynamic performance and noise levels need to be assessed. Noise is one of the largest limiting factors to rotorcraft operations in urban area. Since the high-frequency noise of multi-rotors may increase the annoyance, noise may turn out to be a key issue that must be addressed for market acceptability. One of the objectives of the present work is to study the effects of inter-rotor spacing and collectives on the performance, efficiency, and acoustics of coaxial rotor systems.

Study↗

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

adaptation models↗