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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

MONet/1000 Soils metagenome pathway modelling narrative w/ auto batch import

This narrative performs metabolic modeling and flux balance analysis (FBA) using metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from the 1000 Soils samples, as described by Song et al. (2026, accepted). The set of MAGs (in FASTA format) is converted into a set of assembly objects compatible with functional annotation via RASTtk, yielding a set of genome objects that undergo metabolic modeling via OMEGGA. These genome objects are then used to conduct FBA, generating tables of metabolite uptake rates across the MAGs under investigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneous Data Type Mixture Model

This code performs estimation of a mixture model involving heterogeneous data types. The resulting model can be used to calculate likelihoods of underlying model components.

Kaplan, AlanD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photometric redshift estimation of BASS DR3 quasars by machine learning

ABSTRACT Correlating Beijing–Arizona Sky Survey (BASS) data release 3 (DR3) catalogue with the ALLWISE data base, the data from optical and infrared information are obtained. The quasars from Sloan Digital Sky Survey are taken as training and test samples while those from LAMOST are considered as external test sample. We propose two schemes to construct the redshift estimation models with XGBoost, CatBoost, and Random Forest. One scheme (namely one-step model) is to predict photometric redshifts directly based on the optimal models created by these three algorithms; the other scheme (namely two-step model) is to first classify the data into low- and high-redshift data sets, and then predict photometric redshifts of these two data sets separately. For one-step model, the performance of these three algorithms on photometric redshift estimation is compared with different training samples, and CatBoost is superior to XGBoost and Random Forest. For two-step model, the performances of these three algorithms on the classification of low and high redshift subsamples are compared, and CatBoost still shows the best performance. Therefore, CatBoost is regarded as the core algorithm of classification and regression in two-step model. In contrast to one-step model, two-step model is optimal when predicting photometric redshift of quasars, especially for high-redshift quasars. Finally, the two models are applied to predict photometric redshifts of all quasar candidates of BASS DR3. The number of high-redshift quasar candidates is 3938 (redshift ≥3.5) and 121 (redshift ≥4.5) by two-step model. The predicted result will be helpful for quasar research and follow-up observation of high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Novel Hybrid Ab Initio Model of High-Performance Structural Alloys Design for Fossil Energy Power Plants

The current project developed a novel HT-CALPHAD/DFT approach, which can quickly design new high-performance structural alloys for the application of FE power plants. The PI will mainly take charge of high-throughput DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics of the selected multicomponent alloy systems for the FE power plant applications. At the end of the project, a novel hybrid model based on high throughput CALPHAD/DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics will be developed to provide guidance on how to identify multi-component new high-performance structural alloys with much less computational effort needed. It will address the extensive computation time needed for DFT on the new alloys design. In addition, it will also address the well-known headache of DFT, i.e. how to make the accurate prediction of the high-temperature equilibria. The novel hybrid model the PI proposed will not only be applied to the design of high-performance structural alloys in FE power plants but in many different applications, such as nuclear reactors. This hybrid modeling approach includes four sections: 1) HT-CALPHAD modeling of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe system with FCC and BCC phase. In this section, 3561 non-equiatomic compositions were randomly generated in order to investigate the phase stability of single FCC and BCC phases. Meanwhile, we proposed a data screening procedure to screen out the good candidates within these compositions, considering the temperature range, average density, and melting temperature, etc. 2) Investigation of FCC-Cr lattice stability in Fe-Cr system. We systematically assessed the reliability of FCC-Cr lattice stability derived by DFT and CALPHAD approaches. Meanwhile, the Fe-Cr binary system was chosen as a case study to verify the Cr lattice stability obtained by both approaches. 3) High-throughput DFT modeling on elastic properties of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. We predicted and established the FCC quinary elastic constant database of the Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems at 0K by using special quasi-random structure (SQS) approach. The predictions will start with pure elements of Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni system and will be continued with binaries, ternaries, quaternaries, and finally the quinary compositions. 3) Modeling of temperature-dependent elastic properties in Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. In this part, we predict the thermal expansion coefficient and elastic stiffness coefficient as a function of temperature by applying quasiharmonic approximation. With this approach, the elastic properties of HEAs at elevate temperature can be estimated.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Requirements and Conceptual Design of Off-gas Systems for the Reprocessing of Metallic Fuels

An assessment has been conducted to determine how key regulations regarding volatile radionuclide emissions to the atmosphere may apply to the off-gas streams associated with electrochemical reprocessing. The scope of this assessment was based upon a generic electrochemical reprocessing scheme with a throughput rate of 200 MTIHM/y applied to metallic fuel discharged from a sodium fast reactor (SFR), but the findings are able to be translated to other advanced nuclear scenarios as merited. Air dispersion modeling was performed using the EPA CAP-88 model and evaluated the uncontrolled decontamination factors (DFs) that would be required to achieve regulatory compliance with the dose-based limits set forth by EPA regulation 40 CFR 190.10(a). These DFs were compared to those required by fuel cycle–based limits set forth by EPA regulation 40 CFR 190.10(b). Two theoretical sites with disparate climatological conditions were selected for air dispersion modeling (Idaho and Tennessee). The radionuclides modeled included 3 H, 85 Kr, 129 I, and selected alpha-emitting transuranic isotopes (referred to here as 239 Pu-TRU <1y ). It was found that the fuel cycle-based limits in 40 CFR 190.10(b) are most restrictive for 85 Kr and 239 Pu-TRU <1y , with DFs of 3 and 6.1E+09, respectively. The dose-based limit as derived from 40 CFR 190.10(a) could require mitigation of tritium in some scenarios, with an estimated DF of about 3 for the reference scenarios. The fuel cycle-based limit for 129 I resulted in a DF of about 240 for the reference scenario. The need for iodine mitigation based on dose to the public depended upon the physical form of iodine as either particulate or vapor-phase species. Emission of iodine from the facility as a vapor necessitated DFs of about 2 but emission as a particulate would require DFs >6,000 to meet thyroid dose-based limits. Effects of physical form on needed iodine mitigation are significant, but the understanding of speciation of iodine both during electrochemical reprocessing and after release to the atmosphere is limited. The electrochemical processing unit operations were evaluated to identify potential release points for the volatile radionuclides and to assess the potential for retention of the radionuclides within the process (thus decreasing the need for mitigation). Mitigation strategies for 3 H, 85 Kr, 129 I, and 239 Pu-TRU <1y were identified. In all cases, there are reasonably achievable pathways to regulatory compliance, although in some cases additional R&D is merited to verify the chemical speciation of these isotopes and to develop and demonstrate potential treatment technologies for this application. Whether or not additional off-gas controls (beyond common operations such as HEPA filtration and oxygen and moisture control) are needed for any of these regulated or volatile radionuclides depends on the (a) type of facility (NRC-regulated or DOE), (b) used fuel process rate, (c) used fuel burnup and composition, (d) speciation and retention of volatile radionuclides in the process and in the cell gas cleanup system, (e) site-specific parameters such as location, meteorology, stack height, and site boundaries, and (f) levels of conservatism and safety factors used in assessing compliance to air emissions regulations. Performance of this assessment revealed several areas where information is lacking or additional research is required in order to better determine if or what kinds of off-gas control might be needed. First, and most significantly, the understanding of the chemical speciation and physical form and partitioning of iodine during electrochemical processing operations is lacking and prevents the ability to accurately assess the potential iodine mitigation requirements. Future research in this area should be multifaceted and include thermodynamic modeling of iodine speciation in different process steps, experiments to quantify the kinetics of vapor-phase and melt-phase transitions, bench-scale experiments to determine the potential chemical and physical form of iodine emissions from the electrorefining process, and verification of iodine behavior with experiments utilizing operational facilities. Similarly, an improved understanding of iodine behavior in the environment after release from the facility stack will be required to refine dose estimations, as particulate and vapor-phase emissions result in significantly different doses to the MEI.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 early fault detection experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the next test phase once they got exposed to realworld data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of plant complex traits via integration of multi-omics data

The formation of complex traits is the consequence of genotype and activities at multiple molecular levels. However, connecting genotypes and these activities to complex traits remains challenging. Here, we investigate whether integrating genomic, transcriptomic, and methylomic data can improve prediction for six Arabidopsis traits. We find that transcriptome- and methylome-based models have performances comparable to those of genome-based models. However, models built for flowering time using different omics data identify different benchmark genes. Nine additional genes identified as important for flowering time from our models are experimentally validated as regulating flowering. Gene contributions to flowering time prediction are accession-dependent and distinct genes contribute to trait prediction in different genotypes. Models integrating multi-omics data perform best and reveal known and additional gene interactions, extending knowledge about existing regulatory networks underlying flowering time determination. These results demonstrate the feasibility of revealing molecular mechanisms underlying complex traits through multi-omics data integration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

CyDER: A Cyber Physical Co-simulation Platform for Distributed Energy Resources in Smartgrids

The CyDER project aimed at developing an open-source, modular and scalable co-simulation platform for power grids with large shares of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). The project partners are the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL), PG&E, SolarCity, and ChargePoint. The prime recipient is LBNL; SolarCity and ChargePoint were partners for the project’s first two years. Increased DER integration introduces a number of challenges in power grid operation including a more dynamic interaction between the transmission grid and distribution grids, and increased modeling complexity. Although specialized software exists to precisely model different components of the power system, it is far from trivial to integrate all various models and perform a holistic simulation. Instead of replicating all models in a common simulation program, a commonly accepted approach to tackle this model diversity is to couple third-party simulators and models through a co-simulation platform that coordinates information exchange among the various components. Following this line of research, this project’s objective was to develop a co-simulation platform based on a widely accepted industrial standard called Functional Mockup Interface (FMI). Within this process, the project developed models compliant with the FMI standard, called Functional Mockup Units (FMUs), and used them to perform various operational and planning power system analyses. Relying and building upon an industrial standard is the main differentiation of this project compared with previous or parallel efforts in the co-simulation area. Particular emphasis was put on delivering software utilities to facilitate setting up and running co-simulations by end-users. Furthermore, a strong aspect of this project is demonstrating that co-simulation techniques can be used to perform Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulations that couple software components (e.g., simulated models) with hardware components (e.g., real devices such PV systems and batteries). The long-term goal of CyDER project is to help establish FMI as a powerful standard for co-simulation and promote adoption by electric utilities and other interested stakeholders. The main accomplishments of the project include the development of several FMUs including distribution and transmission grid models, PV inverters with Volt/Var/Watt controllers, batteries, and predictive optimal controllers. Additionally, a unique software package was developed, called SimulatorToFMU, which is capable of exporting any Python-driven simulator or Python script as an FMU. This is an important contribution towards establishing FMI as one of the main co-simulation standards, because more and more third-party programs for sub-system modeling and simulation are delivered with Python APIs. The CyDER platform was used to perform PV hosting capacity analyses in real utility feeders with and without smart inverter controls, battery storage, and EV charging. Smart inverter controls include conventional Volt/Var/Watt controls for reactive power support and active power curtailment, but also predictive controls that optimize the charging and discharging profile of the battery connected on the DC side in order to minimize the customer’s economic benefit. Finally, an important result of this project is delivering an experimental setup that consists of residential-scale PV inverters with battery storage, a real-time grid simulator with an ideal voltage source as grid emulator, and micro Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). All these components and additional software modules are coupled to one another using the FMI standard and can be co-simulated with the CyDER platform.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environment-sensitivity functions for gross primary productivity in light use efficiency models

The sensitivity of photosynthesis to environmental changes is essential for understanding carbon cycle responses to global climate change and for the development of modeling approaches that explains its spatial and temporal variability. We collected a large variety of published sensitivity functions of gross primary productivity (GPP) to different forcing variables to assess the response of GPP to environmental factors. These include the responses of GPP to temperature; vapor pressure deficit, some of which include the response to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; soil water availability (W); light intensity; and cloudiness. These functions were combined in a full factorial light use efficiency (LUE) model structure, leading to a collection of 5600 distinct LUE models. Each model was optimized against daily GPP and evapotranspiration fluxes from 196 FLUXNET sites and ranked across sites based on a bootstrap approach. The GPP sensitivity to each environmental factor, including CO 2 fertilization, was shown to be significant, and that none of the previously published model structures performed as well as the best model selected. From daily and weekly to monthly scales, the best model's median Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency across sites was 0.73, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively, but poorer at annual scales (0.23), emphasizing the common limitation of current models in describing the interannual variability of GPP. Although the best global model did not match the local best model at each site, the selection was robust across ecosystem types. The contribution of light saturation and cloudiness to GPP was observed across all biomes (from 23% to 43%). Temperature and W dominates GPP and LUE but responses of GPP to temperature and W are lagged in cold and arid ecosystems, respectively. The findings of this study provide a foundation towards more robust LUE-based estimates of global GPP and may provide a benchmark for other empirical GPP products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating evapotranspiration from deciduous broadleaf forests by considering the effect of foliar litter

Forest litter cover significantly alters the ground surface resistance, which influences the water and energy transfer processes between the land surface and atmosphere. Penman-Monteith (PM) model is widely used to estimate land surface evapotranspiration (ET). However, it was shown to overestimate ET during the period when foliar litter covers the ground surface. Therefore, incorporating the effect of foliar litter on ground surface resistance can potentially improve ET estimates. Here, in this study, we proposed a foliar litter surface resistance model to describe the effect of litter cover on water vapor transport, then incorporated the litter surface resistance into the PM model (noted as PM-EL model). The performance of the PM-EL model was evaluated using observations from 18 deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) flux sites across global FLUXNET2015 datasets. Results showed that: (1) both the PM model and the PM-EL model are most sensitive to ground surface resistance among resistance parameters; (2) the proposed litter resistance model is capable of describing the seasonal dynamic of litter in DBF ; (3) the PM-EL model, has been shown to improve ET estimates with the coefficient of determination increased by 8.5 %, the mean absolute error and relative root mean square error decreased by 22.1 % and 20.9 %, respectively. The study contributes to our understanding of the effect of litter cover on ET estimation and provides insights into forest ecohydrology and land surface mass and energy transfer processes.

Deciduous Broadleaf Forest↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lattice modeling of excavation damage in argillaceous clay formations: Influence of deformation and strength anisotropy

This paper presents modeling of mechanical anisotropy in argillaceous rocks using an irregular lattice modeling approach, namely the rigid-body-spring network. To represent the mechanical anisotropy, new schemes are implemented in the modeling framework. The directionality of elastic deformation is resolved by modifying the element formulation with anisotropic elastic properties. The anisotropy of strength and failure characteristics is facilitated by adopting orientation-dependent failure criteria into the failure model. The verification of the improved modeling procedures is performed against theoretical model predictions for unconfined compression tests with various bedding orientations. Furthermore, excavation damage and fracturing processes in rock formations are simulated for different geomechanical configurations, such as rock anisotropy and tectonic heterogeneity. The simulated excavation damage characteristics are realistic and comparable with the actual field observation at a tunnel located in an argillaceous clay formation. The simulation results provide insights into the excavation damage zone phenomena with an explicit representation of fracturing processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting molecular dipole moments by combining atomic partial charges and atomic dipoles

The molecular dipole moment ( μ ) is a central quantity in chemistry. It is essential in predicting infrared and sum-frequency generation spectra as well as induction and long-range electrostatic interactions. Furthermore, it can be extracted directly—via the ground state electron density—from high-level quantum mechanical calculations, making it an ideal target for machine learning (ML). Here, we choose to represent this quantity with a physically inspired ML model that captures two distinct physical effects: local atomic polarization is captured within the symmetry-adapted Gaussian process regression framework which assigns a (vector) dipole moment to each atom, while the movement of charge across the entire molecule is captured by assigning a partial (scalar) charge to each atom. The resulting “MuML” models are fitted together to reproduce molecular μ computed using high-level coupled-cluster theory and density functional theory (DFT) on the QM7b dataset, achieving more accurate results due to the physics-based combination of these complementary terms. The combined model shows excellent transferability when applied to a showcase dataset of larger and more complex molecules, approaching the accuracy of DFT at a small fraction of the computational cost. We also demonstrate that the uncertainty in the predictions can be estimated reliably using a calibrated committee model. The ultimate performance of the models—and the optimal weighting of their combination—depends, however, on the details of the system at hand, with the scalar model being clearly superior when describing large molecules whose dipole is almost entirely generated by charge separation. These observations point to the importance of simultaneously accounting for the local and non-local effects that contribute to μ ; furthermore, they define a challenging task to benchmark future models, particularly those aimed at the description of condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗