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DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ground-based laser DIAL system for long-term measurements of stratospheric ozone

A ground-based differential absorption lidar system has been implemented to make long-term, precise measurements of stratospheric ozone concentration profiles from about 20 to 50 km altitude. This lidar is located at an elevation of 2300 m in the San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California, and has been in operation since January 1988. A high power (100-W) excimer laser system and a 90-cm diam telescope are used to achieve the desired performance levels. This paper describes the implementation of the system and its operation including the procedures for data analysis. Examples of ozone profiles measured, and intercomparisons with measurements made by other instruments, are presented which show that the lidar, in its present configuration, is capable of producing high quality ozone measurements from 20 km up to at least 45 km.

Mcdermid, Stuart I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Navigation accuracies for GPS demonstration on Topex/Poseidon

When Topex/Poseidon, is launched in June 1992, the joint United States/French oceanographic satellite mission will carry a developmental Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on board to support the planned GPS demonstration experiment. The navigation operations aspect of the demonstration will develop software and operational procedures for the GPS Data Processing Facility (GDPF) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This paper presents simulations and covariance analysis of operational scenarios in support of the GDPF. Multi-orbit filter techniques using GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudo-range are studied both to tune the filter parameters and to determine feasible arc lengths for use in operations. In addition, a baseline operational scenario is presented with performance results given in terms of end-to-end processing times and computational loading based on a prototype version of the operational software.

Williams, B. G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluating Flight Crew Operator Manual Documentation

Aviation and cognitive science researchers have identified situations in which the pilot s expectations for the behavior of the avionics are not matched by the actual behavior of the avionics. Researchers have attributed these "automation surprises" to the complexity of the avionics mode logic, the absence of complete training, limitations in cockpit displays, and ad-hoc conceptual models of the avionics. Complete canonical rule-based descriptions of the behavior of the autopilot provide the basis for understanding the perceived complexity of the autopilots, the differences between the pilot s and autopilot s conceptual models, and the limitations in training materials and cockpit displays. This paper compares the behavior of the autopilot Vertical Speed/Flight Path Angle (VS-FPA) mode as described in the Flight Crew Operators Manual (FCOM) and the actual behavior of the VS-FPA mode defined in the autopilot software. This example demonstrates the use of the Operational Procedure Model (OPM) as a method for using the requirements specification for the design of the software logic as information requirements for training.

Sherry, Lance↗

NASA NTRS2014

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using a Global 5000 Test Aircraft - Part I

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory-prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. A small-jet field trial was conducted at Denver in the fall of 2010 with the objective of measuring trajectory prediction accuracy and quantifying the primary sources of error. This paper uses data collected onboard a Bombardier Global 5000 test aircraft to quantify the size and sources of trajectory prediction error. Error sources were quantified for the 44 runs by incrementally replacing predicted data with data collected onboard the aircraft and measuring the effect on time error. Results for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 60-120 nmi downstream, indicate that the aircraft arrived an average 15 seconds earlier than predicted, with a standard deviation of 10 seconds. Target Mach and CAS deceleration were found to be the two largest error sources. If CAS deceleration error was reduced using a typical, more predictable level flight deceleration then the arrival time prediction error in 2010 would be on par with a 2009 flight trial of Airbus and Boeing revenue flights. Four of the error sources, tracker jumps, CAS deceleration, target Mach, and path distance, lend themselves to significant reductions with modest to no changes to ATC automation andor procedures. Wind error and its impact on arrival time error was significantly reduced in 2010 compared to a 1994 flight test using NASAs Boeing 737 test aircraft.

Trajectory Prediction Error↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Technology Concepts for Traffic Data Management and Relevant Audio for Datalink in Commercial Airline Flight Decks

Datalink is currently operational for departure clearances and in oceanic environments and is currently being tested in high altitude domestic enroute airspace. Interaction with even simple datalink clearances may create more workload for flight crews than the voice system they replace if not carefully designed. Datalink may also introduce additional complexity for flight crews with hundreds of uplink messages now defined for use. Finally, flight crews may lose airspace awareness and operationally relevant information that they normally pickup from Air Traffic Control (ATC) voice communications with other aircraft (i.e., “party-line” transmissions). Once again, automation may be poised to increase workload on the flight deck for incremental benefit. Datalink implementation to support future air traffic management concepts needs to be carefully considered, understanding human communication norms and especially, the change from voice- to text-based communications modality and its effect on pilot workload and situation awareness. Increasingly autonomous systems, where autonomy is designed to support human-autonomy teaming, may be suited to solve these issues. NASA is conducting research and development of increasingly autonomous systems, utilizing machine-learning algorithms seamlessly integrated with humans whereby task performance of the combined system is significantly greater than the individual components. Increasingly autonomous systems offer the potential for significantly improved levels of performance and safety that are superior to either human or automation alone. Two increasingly autonomous systems concepts - a traffic data manager and a conversational co-pilot - were developed to intelligently address the datalink issues in a complex, future state environment with significant levels of traffic. The system was tested for suitability of datalink usage for terminal airspace. The traffic data manager allowed for automated declutter of the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) display. The system determined relevant traffic for display based on machine learning algorithms trained by experienced human pilot behaviors. The conversational co-pilot provided relevant audio air traffic control messages based on context and proximity to ownship. Both systems made use of the connected aircraft concepts to provide intelligent context to determine relevancy above and beyond proximity to ownship. A human-in-the-loop test was conducted in NASA Langley Research Center’s Integration Flight Deck B-737-800 simulator to evaluate the traffic data manager and the conversational co-pilot. Twelve airline crews flew various normal and non-normal procedures and their actions and performance were recorded in response to the procedural events. This paper details the flight crew performance and evaluation during the events.

Etherington, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Adaptive-Importance-Sampling-Enhanced Bayesian Approach for Topology Estimation in an Unbalanced Power Distribution System

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, we, in this paper, propose a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1979

Inversion of stratospheric aerosol and gaseous constituents from spacecraft solar extinction data in the 0.38-1.0-micron wavelength region

The paper discusses a possible data retrieval technique for the spaceborne Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE). The SAGE instrument has four radiometric channels located at selected intervals in the 0.38-1.0-micron wavelength range. A data reduction procedure is described for minimization of experimental errors on the basis of a detailed simulation of the measurement sequence. An efficient and accurate inversion method is then used for the retrieval of all the constituent vertical profiles. Also, the effects of horizontally inhomogeneous distributions of the constituent vertical profiles are studied based on available data of their global distributions. A simple horizontally inhomogeneous model of stratospheric aerosol and ozone is employed to estimate the perturbation on the retrieval accuracies.

Chu, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Real-Time Method for Estimating Viscous Forebody Drag Coefficients

This paper develops a real-time method based on the law of the wake for estimating forebody skin-friction coefficients. The incompressible law-of-the-wake equations are numerically integrated across the boundary layer depth to develop an engineering model that relates longitudinally averaged skin-friction coefficients to local boundary layer thickness. Solutions applicable to smooth surfaces with pressure gradients and rough surfaces with negligible pressure gradients are presented. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing model predictions with previously measured flight data. This integral law procedure is beneficial in that skin-friction coefficients can be indirectly evaluated in real-time using a single boundary layer height measurement. In this concept a reference pitot probe is inserted into the flow, well above the anticipated maximum thickness of the local boundary layer. Another probe is servomechanism-driven and floats within the boundary layer. A controller regulates the position of the floating probe. The measured servomechanism position of this second probe provides an indirect measurement of both local and longitudinally averaged skin friction. Simulation results showing the performance of the control law for a noisy boundary layer are then presented.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Multi-Tube Pulse Detonation Engine Operation

The present paper explores some preliminary issues concerning the operational characteristics of multiple-tube pulsed detonation engines (PDEs). The study is based on a two-dimensional analysis of the first-pulse operation of two detonation tubes exhausting through a common nozzle. Computations are first performed to assess isolated tube behavior followed by results for multi-tube flow phenomena. The computations are based on an eight-species, finite-rate transient flow-field model. The results serve as an important precursor to understanding appropriate propellant fill procedures and shock wave propagation in multi-tube, multi-dimensional simulations. Differences in behavior between single and multi-tube PDE models are discussed, The influence of multi-tube geometry and the preferred times for injecting the fresh propellant mixture during multi-tube PDE operation are studied.

Ebrahimi, Houshang B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Recent Developments on Autonomous Corrosion Protection Through Encapsulation

This paper concerns recent progress in the development of a multifunctional smart coating, based on microencapsulation, for the autonomous detection and control of corrosion. Microencapsulation has been validated and optimized to incorporate desired corrosion control functionalities, such as early corrosion detection and inhibition, through corrosion-initiated release of corrosion indicators and inhibitors, as well as self-healing agent release triggered by mechanical damage. While proof-of-concept results have been previously reported, more recent research and development efforts have concentrated on improving coating compatibility and synthesis procedure scalability, with a targeted goal of obtaining easily dispersible pigment-grade type microencapsulated materials. The recent progress has resulted in the development of pH-sensitive microparticles as a corrosion-triggered delivery system for corrosion indicators and inhibitors. The synthesis and early corrosion indication results obtained with coating formulations that incorporate these microparticles are reported. The early corrosion indicating results were obtained with color changing and with fluorescent indicators.

Autonomous↗

NASA NTRS2015

Schottky Diode Derating for Survivability in a Heavy Ion Environment

In this paper, we irradiate a number of silicon power Schottky diodes from a variety of manufacturers. The tested diodes represent a wide assortment of reverse voltages and forward currents. Additionally, we review correlations between single-event failures in Schottky diodes and device electrical parameters. The spatial locations of failures in the diode are discussed, as well as a possible explanation for why the failures occur. Based on these correlations to date, we propose a derating scheme for Schottky diodes flown in a heavy ion environment and suggest screening procedures for decreasing the risks of such failures.

Radiation effects↗

DOE OSTI2019

Balancing Performance and Portability with Containers in HPC: An OpenSHMEM Example

There is a growing interest in using Linux containers to streamline software development and application deployment. A container enables the user to bundle the salient elements of the software stack from an application’s perspective. In this paper, we discuss initial experiences in using the Open MPI implementation of OpenSHMEM with containers on HPC resources. We provide a brief overview of two container runtimes, Docker & Singularity, highlighting elements that are of interest for HPC users. The Docker platform offers a rich set of services that are widely used in enterprise environments, whereas Singularity is an emerging container runtime that is specifically written for use on HPC systems. We describe our procedure for container assembly and deployment that strives to maintain the portability of the container-based application. We show performance results for the Graph500 benchmark running along the typical continuum of development testbed up to full production supercomputer (ORNL’s Titan). The results show consistent performance between the native and Singularity (container) tests. The results also showed an unexplained drop in performance when using the Cray Gemini network with Open MPI’s OpenSHMEM, which was unrelated to the container usage.

Naughton III, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Robust Damage-Mitigating Control of Aircraft for High Performance and Structural Durability

This paper presents the concept and a design methodology for robust damage-mitigating control (DMC) of aircraft. The goal of DMC is to simultaneously achieve high performance and structural durability. The controller design procedure involves consideration of damage at critical points of the structure, as well as the performance requirements of the aircraft. An aeroelastic model of the wings has been formulated and is incorporated into a nonlinear rigid-body model of aircraft flight-dynamics. Robust damage-mitigating controllers are then designed using the H(infinity)-based structured singular value (mu) synthesis method based on a linearized model of the aircraft. In addition to penalizing the error between the ideal performance and the actual performance of the aircraft, frequency-dependent weights are placed on the strain amplitude at the root of each wing. Using each controller in turn, the control system is put through an identical sequence of maneuvers, and the resulting (varying amplitude cyclic) stress profiles are analyzed using a fatigue crack growth model that incorporates the effects of stress overload. Comparisons are made to determine the impact of different weights on the resulting fatigue crack damage in the wings. The results of simulation experiments show significant savings in fatigue life of the wings while retaining the dynamic performance of the aircraft.

Caplin, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1994

Models of Human Information Requirements: "When Reasonable Aiding Systems Disagree"

Aircraft flight management and Air Traffic Control (ATC) automation are under development to maximize the economy of flight and to increase the capacity of the terminal area airspace while maintaining levels of flight safety equal to or better than current system performance. These goals are being realized by the introduction of flight management automation aiding and operations support systems on the flight deck and by new developments of ATC aiding systems that seek to optimize scheduling of aircraft while potentially reducing required separation and accounting for weather and wake vortex turbulence. Aiding systems on both the flight deck and the ground operate through algorithmic functions on models of the aircraft and of the airspace. These models may differ from each other as a result of variations in their models of the immediate environment. The resultant flight operations or ATC commands may differ in their response requirements (e.g. different preferred descent speeds or descent initiation points). The human operators in the system must then interact with the automation to reconcile differences and resolve conflicts. We have developed a model of human performance including cognitive functions (decision-making, rule-based reasoning, procedural interruption recovery and forgetting) that supports analysis of the information requirements for resolution of flight aiding and ATC conflicts. The model represents multiple individuals in the flight crew and in ATC. The model is supported in simulation on a Silicon Graphics' workstation using Allegro Lisp. Design guidelines for aviation automation aiding systems have been developed using the model's specification of information and team procedural requirements. Empirical data on flight deck operations from full-mission flight simulation are provided to support the model's predictions. The paper describes the model, its development and implementation, the simulation test of the model predictions, and the empirical validation process. The model and its supporting data provide a generalizable tool that is being expanded to include air/ground compatibility and ATC crew interactions in air traffic management.

Corker, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1997

Tetrahedral and Hexahedral Mesh Adaptation for CFD Problems

This paper presents two unstructured mesh adaptation schemes for problems in computational fluid dynamics. The procedures allow localized grid refinement and coarsening to efficiently capture aerodynamic flow features of interest. The first procedure is for purely tetrahedral grids; unfortunately, repeated anisotropic adaptation may significantly deteriorate the quality of the mesh. Hexahedral elements, on the other hand, can be subdivided anisotropically without mesh quality problems. Furthermore, hexahedral meshes yield more accurate solutions than their tetrahedral counterparts for the same number of edges. Both the tetrahedral and hexahedral mesh adaptation procedures use edge-based data structures that facilitate efficient subdivision by allowing individual edges to be marked for refinement or coarsening. However, for hexahedral adaptation, pyramids, prisms, and tetrahedra are used as buffer elements between refined and unrefined regions to eliminate hanging vertices. Computational results indicate that the hexahedral adaptation procedure is a viable alternative to adaptive tetrahedral schemes.

Biswas, Rupak↗

DOE OSTI2013

Deconstruction of Lignin Model Compounds and Biomass-Derived Lignin using Layered Double Hydroxide Catalysts

Lignin is an underutilized value stream in current biomass conversion technologies because there exist no economic and technically feasible routes for lignin depolymerization and upgrading. Base-catalyzed deconstruction (BCD) has been applied for lignin depolymerization (e.g., the Kraft process) in the pulp and paper industry for more than a century using aqueous-phase media. However, these efforts require treatment to neutralize the resulting streams, which adds significantly to the cost of lignin deconstruction. To circumvent the need for downstream treatment, here we report recent advances in the synthesis of layered double hydroxide and metal oxide catalysts to be applied to the BCD of lignin. These catalysts may prove more cost-effective than liquid-phase, non-recyclable base, and their use obviates downstream processing steps such as neutralization. Synthetic procedures for various transition-metal containing catalysts, detailed kinetics measurements using lignin model compounds, and results of the application of these catalysts to biomass-derived lignin will be presented.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗