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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Low-Noise Design of a Proprotor with the Vortex Lattice Method and Gradient-Based Optimization

This work aims to combine an aerodynamic model based on the unsteady vortex lattice method with an acoustic model provided by Farassat's formulation 1A to perform gradient-based optimizations of a proprotor with aerodynamic and acoustic constraints. The resulting combination of tools is applied to the problem of designing a single proprotor operating at a cruise condition, with and without an acoustic constraint and wing placed downstream of the proprotor rotation plane. Results are compared to a baseline design studied previously, and to similar optimizations performed with a simpler blade element momentum theory aerodynamic model. Each optimization case achieved feasibility and made significant improvements in the objective function, but the optimality criterion was not satisfied. Overall the designs the optimizer found roughly comported with our previous experience with similar problems, with some discrepancies that are discussed.

Aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gradient-Based Optimization of the Common Research Model Wing Subject to CFD-Based Gust and Flutter Constraints

The linearized frequency-domain method was recently implemented in the stabilized finite element solver in NASA’s FUN3D code. Previous work by the authors used this method for enforcing flutter constraints during gradient-based optimizations. More recently, the solver was expanded to account for continuous (also known as stochastic) gust responses. This paper expands on recent Common Research Model wing optimization work, which demonstrated gradient-based optimization with flutter and stochastic gust constraints, among others. While that work utilized FUN3D for static aeroelastic solutions but relied on doublet lattice aerodynamics for gust and flutter responses, the present work replaces these unsteady aerodynamic analyses with those of FUN3D’s linearized frequency-domain solver. With analytic derivatives available, gradient-based optimization is performed through the use of the OpenMDAO/MPhys libraries with over 700 shape, structural, and aerodynamic design variables and over 10 nonlinear constraints. Comparisons of analysis results and optimized designs are made between doublet lattice and linearized frequency-domain solutions.

aeroelasticity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerodynamic Design Optimization for Natural Laminar Flow Airfoils

Natural laminar flow technology is a passive laminar flow control (LFC) strategy that seeks to delay the onset of boundary-layer transition (BLT) through shape optimization to reduce the drag of the aerodynamic vehicle. Adjoint-based design optimization for LFC is proposed in an integrated multidisciplinary framework, which includes the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), geometry and grid deformation, and linear stability analysis (LSA) for transition prediction. In particular, the BLT location is predicted using the dual N-factor method that is based on a linear stability theory (LST) eigenvalue problem. The dual N-factor criterion accounts for the amplification of planar Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) and stationary crossflow (CF) boundary-layer instabilities to predict the transition location in three-dimensional boundary-layer flows. The adjoint-based shape optimization procedure is based on an iteratively coupled CFD and LSA methodology to converge the transition location and flow solutions, as well as to calculate the sensitivities of the aerodynamic metrics of interest with respect to the flow and shape design parameters. The RAE 2822 airfoil at 0 and 30 degrees yaw angles, an angle of attack of 0.72 degrees, and subsonic conditions (M∞ = 0.19, Rec = 5.6 × 106 ) are used as baseline configurations for design optimization. The angle of attack and the vertical displacement of free-form-deformation control points are used as design variables to reduce the drag coefficient while reaching a specified lift coefficient. The optimized unswept airfoil designs achieve a 30% drag reduction accompanied by a downstream shift of the transition locations over both suction and pressure sides of the airfoil. The initial design iterations for the swept case also show a favorable trend in the drag reduction with transition delay over both sides.

Transition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aviary: An Open-Source Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool for Modeling Aircraft with Analytic Gradients

In recent years demands on aircraft design methods have begun to require higher degrees of coupling between disciplines and optimization in order to satisfy competing objectives involving large numbers of design parameters that define unconventional configurations. These expanding requirements have amplified a need for new and improved aircraft design, analysis, and optimization codes that are capable of performing coupled design and exploiting analytic gradients to perform gradient-based optimization where possible. To address this need, a new multidisciplinary design optimization and analysis tool called Aviary is presented. This tool, built on OpenMDAO, allows for tightly coupled, simultaneous aircraft and subsystem design using analytic gradients. Aviary includes methods from two NASA developed legacy aircraft analysis tools and provides native analytically differentiated calculations for five different disciplines (weights and sizing, aerodynamics, geometry, propulsion, and mission analysis), while also allowing external discipline analysis tools to be coupled, regardless of whether those tools can provide analytic gradients. Verification and preliminary examples and modeling efforts show Aviary’s ability to effectively model novel concepts and explore large and non-intuitive design spaces. Additionally, a multi-level user interface in Aviary creates an easy entry point for users with any level of multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization experience.

optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Operation of a Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA) for Off-Road Vehicles Over Discrete Operating Decisions

Many off-highway machines including construction and agriculture equipment use hydraulics for power transmission and throttling as a means for control. Trends towards better efficiency and electrification have led to the creation of a novel Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA) which could significantly reduce energy consumption and maintain control performance, even in machines that are too large to be directly electrified. This is achieved by using a set of common pressure rails to transmit the majority of power via power dense hydraulics and modulating the power with small electric motor-drives to achieve precise control. This paper proposes a computationally efficient method for computing the optimal sequence of pressure rail selections for the HHEA over finite drive cycles. This is useful for fairly comparing the novel architecture’s energy performance to existing architectures and for use in iterative optimal design of the architecture. The optimal control technique makes use of a static model of the architecture and losses. Constraints are enforced such that the drive cycle is repeatable. The constrained optimal operation is solved using a Lagrange multiplier technique that transforms the optimization into a small set of sub-problems by considering combinations of active constraints. Each of these sub-problems can be solved efficiently because loss calculations for all time steps can be computed in parallel. A case study of an off-road construction machine demon-strates that the HHEA reduces energy consumption by 2/3 compared to the baseline load sensing architecture.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

OPTIMAL CONTROL AND ENERGY-SAVING ANALYSIS OF COMMON PRESSURE RAIL ARCHITECTURES: HHEA & STEAM

In recent years several novel hydraulic architectures have been proposed with the intention of significantly increasing system efficiency. Two of these architectures, Steigerung der Energieeffizienz in der Arbeitshydraulik mobiler Arbeitsmaschinen (STEAM), and the Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA), use a system of multiple common pressure rails (CPRs) to serve the multiple degrees-of-freedom of the machine. The key difference is that STEAM throttles hydraulic power from these rails while HHEA combines electric and hydraulic power to meet actuator demands. As a throttle-less architecture, HHEA is expected to save more energy than STEAM at the expense of added complexity. Therefore, it is useful to quantify this additional energy saving. Both systems have discrete operational choices corresponding to how the CPRs are utilized for each actuator. It is necessary to determine optimal operation for each of these architectures for analysis and fair comparison. Techniques for optimal operation of the HHEA have been developed previously from the Langrange multiplier method. Applying the same optimal control method to STEAM encountered some technical challenge leading to the optimal control algorithm not being able to satisfy certain constraints. The issue is analyzed and solved by adding noise to the optimization. Using this proposed algorithm, case studies are performed to compare the energy-saving potentials of STEAM and HHEA for two sizes of excavators and a wheel-loader performing representative duty cycles. The baseline is a standard load-sensing architecture. Results show that STEAM and HHEA can reduce energy consumption between 35-65% and 50-80% respectively

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Total variation vs L1 regularization: a comparison of compressive sensing optimization methods for chemical detection

One of the fundamental assumptions of compressive sensing (CS) is that a signal can be reconstructed from a small number of samples by solving an optimization problem with the appropriate regularization term. Two standard regularization terms are the L1 norm and the total variation (TV) norm. We present a comparison of CS reconstruction results based on these two approaches in the context of chemical detection, and we demonstrate that optimization based on the L1 norm outperforms optimization based on the TV norm. Our comparison is driven by CS sampling, reconstruction, and chemical detection in two real-world datasets: the Physical Sciences Inc. Fabry-Perot interferometer sensor multispectral dataset and the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab FTIR-based longwave infrared sensor hyperspectral dataset. Both datasets contain the release of a chemical simulant such as glacial acetic acid, triethyl phosphate, and sulfur hexafluoride. For chemical detection we use the adaptive coherence estimator (ACE) and bulk coherence, and we propose algorithmic ACE thresholds to define the presence or absence of a chemical of interest in both un-compressed data cubes and reconstructed data cubes. The un-compressed data cubes provide an approximate ground truth. We demonstrate that optimization based on either the L1 norm or TV norm results in successful chemical detection at a compression rate of 90%, but we show that L1 optimization is preferable. We present quantitative comparisons of chemical detection on reconstructions from the two methods, with an emphasis on the number of pixels with an ACE value above the threshold.

Hyperspectral imagery, L1-norm, total variation, A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Distributed Control of Smart Inverters for Network-level Optimization

The limitations of centralized optimization methods in managing electric power distribution systems operations have led to the distributed paradigm of computing and decision-making. Unfortunately, the existing distributed optimization algorithms are limited in their applicability to managing fast varying phenomena such as those resulting from highly variable Distributed Energy Resource (DER) generation patterns. They require a large number of communication rounds (in the order of 10 2 to 10 3 ) among the computing agents to solve one instance of the optimization problem. Related real-time distributed control methods are equally limited in their applications to power distribution systems with fast-changing DER generation; they require hundreds of rounds of communication and thus are slow in tracking the network-level optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed voltage controller that provides a fast-tracking of rapidly varying DER generation profiles while simultaneously converging to network-level optimal solutions within a few communication rounds. The proposed control algorithm leverages the radial topology of the system, which reduces the required communication rounds to reach the network-level optimum solution by order of magnitude. The novelty lies in carefully reducing the electrical network model from the perspective of each distributed controller and enabling appropriate data sharing among upstream and downstream nodes to achieve fast convergence. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in minimizing the feeder losses while maintaining the node voltage within the pre-specified limits.

voltage control, optimization, reactive power, inv↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Crack Detection and Pipe Shape Optimization for Enhanced Sewage System Durability

Crack detection in underground reinforced concrete pipes has been essential in determining the state of stormwater infrastructure. Detection models have been implemented for detecting cracks and other defects in pipes using CCTV footage for stormwater drainage systems. In addition, Finite element models have been used to determine optimum shapes and pipe thickness for different boundary conditions such as header pipes in power plants. The concept of shape optimization emerges as a crucial factor in power plant design and operation, with the potential to maximize performance while minimizing the use of materials. Shape optimization not only enhances efficiency but also contributes to reducing the environmental footprint. This paper discusses the integration of both topics by using the cracks detected in underground pipes as boundary conditions for shape optimization of the pipes. A machine learning model has been developed which uses limited data for training and outlines the location of detected cracks. A shape optimization methodology is proposed in which ANSYS modules are used to analyze fluid flow and then optimize the shape of the pipe. The crack detection model developed has been applied to a crack detected in lab setting and machine learning model used has an accuracy of 98% using a random forest algorithm.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Transmission-Distribution Multi-Period Switching for Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Improving Speed and Scalability with Distributed Optimization: Preprint

With increasingly severe wildfire conditions driven by climate change, utilities must manage the risk of wildfire ignitions from electric power lines. During "public safety power shutoff'" events, utilities de-energize power lines to reduce wildfire ignition risk, which may result in load shedding. Distributed energy resources provide flexibility that can help support the system to reduce load shedding when lines are de-energized. We investigate a coordinated transmission-distribution optimization problem that balances wildfire risk mitigation and load shedding. We model distribution systems that include battery energy storage systems which may support loads when transmission lines are de-energized. This multi-period integrated transmission-distribution optimal switching problem jointly optimizes line switching decisions, the generators' setpoints, load shedding, and the batteries' states of charge, resulting in significant computational challenges. To improve scalability, we decompose the problem over both space and time and apply a distributed optimization algorithm. Using a large-scale synthetic California test case with realistic distribution models and real wildfire risk data, we show that distributed optimization can solve large-scale multi-period switching problems that are otherwise intractable for centralized solvers. We also discuss challenges and future directions for improving the distributed algorithm's convergence performance as the number of time periods increases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning framework for quantum sampling of highly constrained, continuous optimization problems

In recent years, there is growing interest in using quantum computers for solving combinatorial optimization problems. In this work, we developed a generic, machine learning-based framework for mapping continuous-space inverse design problems into surrogate quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problems by employing a binary variational autoencoder and a factorization machine. The factorization machine is trained as a low-dimensional, binary surrogate model for the continuous design space and sampled using various QUBO samplers. Using the D-Wave Advantage hybrid sampler and simulated annealing, we demonstrate that by repeated resampling and retraining of the factorization machine, our framework finds designs that exhibit figures of merit exceeding those of its training set. We showcase the framework’s performance on two inverse design problems by optimizing (i) thermal emitter topologies for thermophotovoltaic applications and (ii) diffractive meta-gratings for highly efficient beam steering. This technique can be further scaled to leverage future developments in quantum optimization to solve advanced inverse design problems for science and engineering applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Optimization of Plasma Radiation Detector Configurations using Imperfect Inference Models

The configurations of instruments fielded on an experiment affect the amount of information captured and the quality of subsequent inference. Here, we investigate the problem of optimizing plasma x-ray radiation detectors in a magneto-inertial fusion experiment at Sandia National Laboratories. It is impossible to directly measure properties such as the temperature of the thermonuclear fusion plasma produced in these experiments because of the extreme environment and destructive nature of the experiment. Among other diagnostics, several detectors are placed with significant standoff from the fusion target to capture the x-rays emitted by the fusion plasma, which can be used to infer some of its properties. To optimize the configuration of these detectors, a high-fidelity model (HFM) is used for simulating outputs and a low-fidelity model (LFM) is used for inference. We develop methods based on A- and L-optimality criteria that are efficient to compute while explicitly accounting for the discrepancy between the HFM and the LFM. The method allows us to find detector configurations that perform similarly to or better than the configuration obtained using an existing sampling-based optimization method while decreasing computational time by a factor of 50. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Holistic fleet optimization incorporating system design considerations

The methodology described in this article enables a type of holistic fleet optimization that simultaneously considers the composition and activity of a fleet through time as well as the design of individual systems within the fleet. Often, real-world system design optimization and fleet-level acquisition optimization are treated separately due to the prohibitive scale and complexity of each problem. Importantly, this means that fleet-level schedules are typically limited to the inclusion of predefined system configurations and are blind to a rich spectrum of system design alternatives. Similarly, system design optimization often considers a system in isolation from the fleet and is blind to numerous, complex portfolio-level considerations. In reality, these two problems are highly interconnected. To properly address this system-fleet design interdependence, we present a general method for efficiently incorporating multi-objective system design trade-off information into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) fleet-level optimization. This work is motivated by the authors' experience with large-scale DOD acquisition portfolios. However, the methodology is general to any application where the fleet-level problem is a MILP and there exists at least one system having a design trade space in which two or more design objectives are parameters in the fleet-level MILP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Artificial Neural Network Model for Optimized Control of Condenser Water Temperature Set-Point in a Chilled Water System

Here, in this study, real-time predictive control and optimization model based on an ANN (artificial neural network) was developed to evaluate the cooling energy saving performance of the optimized control of CndWT (condenser water temperature). For this purpose, the difference in TCEC (total cooling energy consumption) between the conventional control strategy when the CndWT produced by the cooling tower is fixed and the optimized control strategy when real-time control of the CndWT through the optimal ANN model is applied was compared and analyzed. For the modeling of the building to be simulated, the co-simulation of EnergyPlus and MATLAB was built through the middleware Building Controls Virtual Test Bed. For the prediction of TCEC, an ANN model was developed through MATLAB's neural network toolbox. The model accuracy of the ANN was examined through Cv(RMSE) index and as a result, Cv(RMSE) of the optimized ANN model turned out to be approximately 25 %. More importantly, the predictive control technique was able to save TCEC by 5.6 % compared to the conventional control method constantly fixing CndWT set-point to 30 °C. These results showed that the CndWT needs to be dynamically controlled using artificial intelligence technique such as ANN model and that significant energy savings were achievable compared to the conventional fixed control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Optimization Methods for Controlling and Sizing Grid-connected Energy Storage: A Review

Purpose of Review Energy storage is capable of providing a variety of services and solving a multitude of issues in today's rapidly evolving electric power grid. This paper reviews recent research on modeling and optimization methods for optimally controlling and sizing grid-connected battery energy storage systems (BESSs). Open issues and promising research directions are discussed. Recent Findings Recent studies on BESS dispatch, evaluation, and sizing focus on advanced modeling and optimization methods to maximize stacked value streams from multiple services. BESS models have been improved to better represent operational characteristics or capture degradation effects. Different solution methods and optimization techniques have been proposed to improve the benefits and cost-effectiveness of BESSs, using deterministic approaches prevalently but with impressive progress in capturing and addressing uncertainties. Summary Recent progress in BESS scheduling and sizing better supports planning and operational decision-making in different use cases, which is highly important to advance the deployment of BESSs. Additional research is required to properly model the trade-off between short-term benefits and service life with multiple degradation effects explicitly considered in the decision-making process. Advanced methods are to be developed for effectively determining optimal BESS sizes that maximize overall benefits within a varying lifetime considering diversified system, conditions as well as uncertainties at planning and operational stages.

Wu, Di↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗