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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Convergence of variational Monte Carlo simulation and scale-invariant pre-training

We provide theoretical convergence bounds for the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method as applied to optimize neural network wave functions for the electronic structure problem. Here, we study both the energy minimization phase and the supervised pre-training phase that is commonly used prior to energy minimization. For the energy minimization phase, the standard algorithm is scale-invariant by design, and we provide a proof of convergence for this algorithm without modifications. The pre-training stage typically does not feature such scale-invariance. We propose using a scale-invariant loss for the pretraining phase and demonstrate empirically that it leads to faster pre-training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Method of information entropy for convergence assessment of molecular dynamics simulations

The lack of a reliable method to evaluate the convergence of molecular dynamics simulations has contributed to discrepancies in different areas of molecular dynamics. Here, the method of information entropy is introduced to molecular dynamics for stationarity assessment. The Shannon information entropy formalism is used to monitor the convergence of the atom motion to a steady state in a continuous spatial domain and is also used to assess the stationarity of calculated multidimensional fields such as the temperature field in a discrete spatial domain. It is demonstrated in this work that monitoring the information entropy of the atom position matrix provides a clear indicator of reaching steady state in radiation damage simulations, non-equilibrium molecular dynamics thermal conductivity computations, and simulations of Poiseuille and Couette flow in nanochannels. A main advantage of the present technique is that it is non-local and relies on fundamental quantities available in all molecular dynamics simulations. Unlike monitoring average temperature, the technique is applicable to simulations that conserve total energy such as reverse non-equilibrium molecular dynamics thermal conductivity computations and to simulations where energy dissipates through a boundary as in radiation damage simulations. The method is applied to simulations of iron using the Tersoff/ZBL splined potential, silicon using the Stillinger–Weber potential, and to Lennard–Jones fluid. Its applicability to both solids and fluids shows that the technique has potential for generalization to other areas in molecular dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative uranium elemental reconstruction using spectral x-ray radiography

X-ray radiography offers the ability to noninvasively inspect the internal structure and material composition of objects. Dual-energy radiography allows material discrimination but is limited in quantitative material measurements due to the broad nature of the interrogating x-ray spectrum. Spectral radiography detectors provide an observation of not just the number of x rays that are transmitted through a sample but also the spectrum. Here, experimental validations of a method to use spectral x-ray radiography to accurately quantify the uranium mass in a powder are presented. An accurate system response model was developed, which includes a model of the incident x-ray source spectrum and a pixel-wise detector response that describes how the transmitted x rays were observed. Further, a calibration to account for the effect of partial x-ray attenuation was developed. As a result, the method is demonstrated to be capable of estimating the uranium mass in a variety of uranium oxide powders to a bias of –0.01±0.62%.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges in Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Networks

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such challenges culminate to lack of convergence to the parameter posterior. Nevertheless, this paper shows that a nonconverged Markov chain, generated via MCMC sampling from the parameter space of a neural network, can yield via Bayesian marginalization a valuable posterior predictive distribution of the output of the neural network. Further, classification examples based on multilayer perceptrons showcase highly accurate posterior predictive distributions. The postulate of limited scope for MCMC developments in BNNs is partially valid; an asymptotically exact parameter posterior seems less plausible, yet an accurate posterior predictive distribution is a tenable research avenue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation for X-ray scattering analysis with Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing shift selection in multilevel Monte Carlo for disconnected diagrams in lattice QCD

The calculation of disconnected diagram contributions to physical signals is a computationally expensive task in Lattice QCD. To extract the physical signal, the trace of the inverse Lattice Dirac operator, a large sparse matrix, must be stochastically estimated. Because the variance of the stochastic estimator is typically large, variance reduction techniques must be employed. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods reduce the variance of the trace estimator by utilizing a telescoping sequence of estimators. Frequency Splitting is one such method that uses a sequence of inverses of shifted operators to estimate the trace of the inverse lattice Dirac operator, however there is no a priori way to select the shifts that minimize the cost of the multilevel trace estimation. Here we present a sampling and interpolation scheme that is able to predict the variances associated with Frequency Splitting under displacements of the underlying space time lattice. The interpolation scheme is able to predict the variances to high accuracy and therefore chooses shifts that correspond to an approximate minimum of the cost for the trace estimation. We show that Frequency Splitting with the chosen shifts displays significant speedups over multigrid deflation, and that these shifts can be used for multiple configurations within the same ensemble with no penalty to performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-Principles Statistical Mechanics Study of Magnetic Fluctuations and Order–Disorder in the Spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 Cathode

While significant magnetic interactions exist in lithium transition metal oxides, commonly used as Li-ion cathodes, the interplay between magnetic couplings, disorder, and redox processes remains poorly understood. In this work, we focus on the high-voltage spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) cathode as a model system on which to apply a computational framework that uses first principles-based statistical mechanics methods to predict the finite temperature magnetic properties of materials and provide insights into the complex interplay between magnetic and chemical degrees of freedom. Density functional theory calculations on multiple distinct Ni–Mn orderings within the LNMO system, including the ordered ground-state structure (space group P4332), reveal a preference for a ferrimagnetic arrangement of the Ni and Mn sublattices due to strong antiferromagnetic superexchange interactions between neighboring Mn 4+ and Ni 2+ ions and ferromagnetic Mn–Mn and Ni–Ni couplings, as revealed by magnetic cluster expansions. These results are consistent with qualitative predictions using the Goodenough-Kanamori-Anderson rules. Simulations of the finite temperature magnetic properties of LNMO are conducted using Metropolis Monte Carlo. We find that a “semiclassical” Monte Carlo sampling method based on the Heisenberg Hamiltonian accurately predicts experimental magnetic transition temperatures observed in magnetometry measurements. This study highlights the importance of a robust computational toolkit that accurately captures the complex chemomagnetic interactions and predicts finite temperature magnetic behavior to help analyze experimental magnetic and magnetic resonance spectroscopy data acquired ex situ and operando.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio electronic density in solids by many-body plane-wave auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo calculations

We present accurate many-body results of the electronic densities in several solid materials, including Si, NaCl, and Cu. These results are obtained using the ab initio auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) method working in a plane-wave basis with norm-conserving, multiple-projector pseudopotentials. AFQMC has been shown to be an excellent many-body total energy method. Computation of observables and correlation functions other than the ground-state energy requires back-propagation, whose adaption and implementation in the plane-wave basis AFQMC framework are discussed in the present paper. This development allows us to compute correlation functions, electronic densities, and interatomic forces, paving the way for geometry optimizations and calculations of thermodynamic properties in solids. Finite supercell size effects are considerably more subtle in the many-body framework than in independent-electron calculations. We analyze the convergence of the electronic density, and obtain best estimates for the thermodynamic limit. The densities from several typical density functionals are benchmarked against our near-exact results. The electronic densities we obtained can also be used to help construct improved density functionals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetic multilayer edges in Bernal-stacked hexagonal boron nitride

Single-layer h-BN is known to have edges with unique magnetism; however, in the commonly fabricated multilayer AA'-h-BN, edge relaxations occur that create interlayer bonds and eliminate the unpaired electrons at the edge. Recently, a robust method of growing the unconventional Bernal-stacked h-BN (AB-h-BN) has been reported. Here, we use theoretical approaches to investigate the nitrogen-terminated zigzag edges in AB-h-BN that can be formed in a controlled fashion using a high-energy electron beam. We find that these "open"edges remain intact in bilayer and multilayer AB-h-BN, enabling researchers potentially to investigate these edge states experimentally. We also investigate the thermodynamics of the spin configurations at the edge by constructing a lattice model that is based on parameters extracted from a set of first-principles calculations. We find that the edge spins in neighboring layers interact very weakly, resulting in a sequence of independent spin chains in multilayer samples. By solving this model using Monte Carlo simulations, we can determine nm-scale correlation lengths at liquid-N 2 temperatures and lower. At low temperatures, these edges may be utilized in magnetoresistance and spintronics applications.

1-dimensional spin chains↗
NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of the time constant of relaxation: insights from simulations and hemodynamic measurements

The objective of this study was to use high-fidelity animal data and numerical simulations to gain more insight into the reliability of the estimated relaxation constant derived from left ventricular pressure decays, assuming a monoexponential model with either a fixed zero or free moving pressure asymptote. Comparison of the experimental data with the results of the simulations demonstrated a trade off between the fixed zero and the free moving asymptote approach. The latter method more closely fits the pressure curves and has the advantage of producing an extra coefficient with potential diagnostic information. On the other hand, this method suffers from larger standard errors on the estimated coefficients. The method with fixed zero asymptote produces values of the time constant of isovolumetric relaxation (tau) within a narrow confidence interval. However, if the pressure curve is actually decaying to a nonzero pressure asymptote, this method results in an inferior fit of the pressure curve and a biased estimation of tau.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1959

A Numerical Method for Obtaining Monoenergetic Neutron Flux Distributions and Transmissions in Multiple-Region Slabs

This method is investigated for semi-infinite multiple-slab configurations of arbitrary width, composition, and source distribution. Isotropic scattering in the laboratory system is assumed. Isotropic scattering implies that the fraction of neutrons scattered in the i(sup th) volume element or subregion that will make their next collision in the j(sup th) volume element or subregion is the same for all collisions. These so-called "transfer probabilities" between subregions are calculated and used to obtain successive-collision densities from which the flux and transmission probabilities directly follow. For a thick slab with little or no absorption, a successive-collisions technique proves impractical because an unreasonably large number of collisions must be followed in order to obtain the flux. Here the appropriate integral equation is converted into a set of linear simultaneous algebraic equations that are solved for the average total flux in each subregion. When ordinary diffusion theory applies with satisfactory precision in a portion of the multiple-slab configuration, the problem is solved by ordinary diffusion theory, but the flux is plotted only in the region of validity. The angular distribution of neutrons entering the remaining portion is determined from the known diffusion flux and the remaining region is solved by higher order theory. Several procedures for applying the numerical method are presented and discussed. To illustrate the calculational procedure, a symmetrical slab ia vacuum is worked by the numerical, Monte Carlo, and P(sub 3) spherical harmonics methods. In addition, an unsymmetrical double-slab problem is solved by the numerical and Monte Carlo methods. The numerical approach proved faster and more accurate in these examples. Adaptation of the method to anisotropic scattering in slabs is indicated, although no example is included in this paper.

Schneider, Harold↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantum Monte Carlo study of systems with effective core potentials and node nonlinearities

In this report we study beryllium dihydride (BeH2) and acetylene (C2H2) molecules using real-space diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) method. The molecules serve as perhaps the simplest prototypes that illustrate the difficulties with biases in the fixed-node DMC calculations that might appear with the use of effective core potentials (ECPs) or other nonlocal operators. This is especially relevant for the recently introduced correlation consistent ECPs (ccECPs) for 2s2p elements. Corresponding ccECPs exhibit deeper potential functions due to higher fidelity to all-electron counterparts, which could lead to larger local energy fluctuations. We point out that the difficulties stem from issues that are straightforward to address by upgrades of basis sets, use of T-moves for nonlocal terms, inclusion of a few configurations into the trial function and similar. The resulting accuracy corresponds to the ccECP target (chemical accuracy) and it is in consistent agreement with independent correlated calculations. Further possibilities for upgrading the reliability of the DMC algorithm and considerations for better adapted and more robust Jastrow factors are discussed as well.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the benefits of kinetic Monte Carlo and microkinetic modeling for catalyst design studies in the presence of lateral interactions

Popular computational catalyst design strategies rely on the identification of reactivity descriptors, which can be used along with Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) and scaling relations as input to a microkinetic model (MKM) to make predictions for activity or selectivity trends. The main benefit of this approach is related to the inherent dimensionality reduction of the large material space to just a few catalyst descriptors. Conversely, it is well documented that a small set of descriptors is insufficient to capture the intricacies and complexities of a real catalytic system. The inclusion of coverage effects through lateral adsorbate-adsorbate interactions can narrow the gap between simplified descriptor predictions and real systems, but mean-field MKMs cannot properly account for local coverage effects. This shortcoming of the mean-field approximation can be rectified by switching to a lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) method using cluster expansion representation of adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions. Using the prototypical CO oxidation reaction as an example, we critically evaluate the benefits of kMC over MKM in terms of trend predictions and computational cost when using only a small set of input parameters. After confirming that in the absence of lateral interactions the kMC and MKM approaches yield identical trends and mechanistic information, we observed substantial differences between the two kinetic models when lateral interactions were introduced. Here, the mean-field implementation applies coverage corrections directly to the descriptors, causing an artificial overprediction of the activity of strongly binding metals. In contrast, the cluster expansion in kMC implementation can differentiate among the highly active metals but it is very sensitive to the set of included interaction parameters. Considering that computational screening relies on a minimal set of descriptors, for which MKM makes reasonable trend predictions at a ca. three orders of magnitude lower computational cost than kMC, the MKM approach does provide a better entry point for computational catalyst design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning approach to fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering spectra

Fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering ion acoustic wave features using a deep convolutional neural network model is presented. The network was trained from spectra to predict the plasma parameters, including ion velocities, population fractions, and ion and electron temperatures. A fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation was used to model a laboratory astrophysics experiment and simulate a diagnostic image of the ion acoustic wave feature. Network predictions were compared with Bayesian inference of the plasma model parameters for both the simulated and experimentally measured images. Both approaches were fairly accurate predicting the simulated image and the network predictions matched a good portion of the Bayesian results for the experimentally measured image. The Bayesian approach is more robust to noise and motivates future work to train deep learning models with realistic noise. The advantage of the deep learning model is making thousands of predictions in a few hundred milliseconds, compared to a few seconds to minutes per prediction for the optimization and Bayesian approaches presented here. The results demonstrate promising capabilities of deep learning models to analyze Thomson data orders of magnitude faster than conventional methods when using the neural network for standalone analysis. If more rigorous analysis is needed, neural network predictions can be used to quickly initialize other optimization methods and increase chances of success. This is especially useful when the dataset becomes very large or highly dimensional and manually refining initial conditions for the entire dataset are no longer tractable.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗