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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

Adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and runaway electron dynamics

The adjoint Fokker-Planck equation method is applied to study the runaway probability function and the expected slowing-down time for highly relativistic runaway electrons, including the loss of energy due to synchrotron radiation. In direct correspondence to Monte Carlo simulation methods, the runaway probability function has a smooth transition across the runaway separatrix, which can be attributed to effect of the pitch angle scattering term in the kinetic equation. However, for the same numerical accuracy, the adjoint method is more efficient than the Monte Carlo method. The expected slowing-down time gives a novel method to estimate the runaway current decay time in experiments. A new result from this work is that the decay rate of high energy electrons is very slow when E is close to the critical electric field. This effect contributes further to a hysteresis previously found in the runaway electron population.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evolving charge correlations in a hybrid model with both hydrodynamics and hadronic Boltzmann descriptions

Background: Correlations from charge correlation, known as charge balance functions, provide critical tests of the chemical evolution of matter in a heavy-ion collision. Comparisons of experimental balance functions with calculations from parametric descriptions of the final state suggest that the charge production in the earliest stages of a heavy-ion collision are consistent with having generated an amount of light up, down, and strange quarks that are largely consistent with expectations for creating a chemically equilibrate quark-gluon plasma. Purpose: This work describes a full simulation of the evolving correlations superimposed on a state-of-the-art microscopic description of the collision. Methods: The creation and diffusion of balancing charges is modeled on the background of a hybrid description of the evolution based on hydrodynamics, for when the matter’s temperature is above 155 MeV, and a microscopic hadronic simulation, for the breakup stage. The translation of the charge-charge correlation function, indexed by the flavors up, down, and strange, into correlations between specific hadron species is built on the assumption that differential charges enhance differential yields according to statistical equilibrium. Monte Carlo methods are implemented when applicable. Results: The charge balance functions are predicted for pairs indexed by charge alone or by whether the particle pairs are any combination of pions, kaons, or protons. We report comparisons with experiment are remarkably successful except for the proton-kaon balance functions. Conclusions: This demonstrates first that two-particle correlations from charge conservation can be calculated for a state-of-the-art model of the evolution with moderate amounts of computation. Aside from the magnitude of the proton-kaon correlations, the calculations well describe preliminary experimental results from the STAR Collaboration at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. Ignoring the one disagreement, this suggests that the matter in a heavy-ion collision comes close to maintaining chemical equilibrium during the superhadronic stage of a heavy-ion collision.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Watts Bar Unit 1 Cycle Zero Power Physics Tests Analysis with VERA-CS

The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) is developing a collection of methods and software products known as VERA, the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, including a core simulation capability called VERA-CS. A key milestone for this endeavor is to validate VERA against measurements from operating nuclear power reactors. The first step in validation against plant data is to determine the ability of VERA to accurately simulate the initial startup physics tests for Watts Bar Nuclear Power Station, Unit 1 (WBN1) cycle 1. VERA-CS calculations were performed with the Insilico code developed at ORNL using cross section processing from the SCALE system and the transport capabilities within the Denovo transport code using the SPN method. The calculations were performed with ENDF/B-VII.0 cross sections in 252 groups (collapsed to 23 groups for the 3D transport solution). The key results of the comparison of calculations with measurements include initial criticality, control rod worth critical configurations, control rod worth, differential boron worth, and isothermal temperature reactivity coefficient (ITC). The VERA results for these parameters show good agreement with measurements, with the exception of the ITC, which requires additional investigation. Results are also compared to those obtained with Monte Carlo methods and a current industry core simulator.

CASL↗

Partially Collapsed Gibbs Samplers for Linear Inverse Problems and Applications to X-ray Imaging

Deblurring is one of the most common linear inverse problems in imaging, and most methods for deblurring an image assume that the convolution kernel, the so-called point spread function (PSF), is known or attempt to reconstruct the PSF simultaneously with the image. For many experimental imaging systems, like high energy X-ray radiography systems, the PSF must be computed from calibration imagery. The associated inverse problem is large-scale, so, in order to compute meaningful uncertainties with the reconstruction, it is common to use hierarchical Bayesian models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from the posterior. Classical Gibbs samplers can suffer from long autocorrelation lengths in the Markov chain when the reconstructed quantity in the inverse problem is finely discretized, resulting in poor computational efficiency of the Markov chain. In this work we present partially collapsed Gibbs samplers for linear inverse problems that greatly decrease correlations in the Markov chain, thus increasing the computational efficiency of the algorithms, and we present the results of the enhanced samplers on the problem of reconstructing the point spread function for an X-ray imaging system at the U.S. Department of Energy's Nevada National Security Site.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Monte Carlo Perturbation Theory Estimates of Sensitivities to System Dimensions

Here, Monte Carlo methods are developed using adjoint-based perturbation theory and the differential operator method to compute the sensitivities of the k-eigenvalue, linear functions of the flux (reaction rates), and bilinear functions of the forward and adjoint flux (kinetics parameters) to system dimensions for uniform expansions or contractions. The calculation of sensitivities to system dimensions requires computing scattering and fission sources at material interfaces using collisions occurring at the interface—which is a set of events with infinitesimal probability. Kernel density estimators are used to estimate the source at interfaces using collisions occurring near the interface. The methods for computing sensitivities of linear and bilinear ratios are derived using the differential operator method and adjoint-based perturbation theory and are shown to be equivalent to methods previously developed using a collision history–based approach. The methods for determining sensitivities to system dimensions are tested on a series of fast, intermediate, and thermal critical benchmarks as well as a pressurized water reactor benchmark problem with iterated fission probability used for adjoint-weighting. The estimators are shown to agree within 5% and 3σ of reference solutions obtained using direct perturbations with central differences for the majority of test problems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Ab initio electroweak corrections to superallowed β decays and their impact on V ud

Radiative corrections are essential for an accurate determination of V ud from superallowed β decays. In view of recent progress in the single-nucleon sector, the uncertainty is dominated by the theoretical description of nucleus-dependent effects, limiting the precision that can currently be achieved for V ud . In this work, we provide a detailed account of the electroweak corrections to superallowed β decays in effective field theory (EFT), including the power counting, potential and ultrasoft contributions, and factorization in the decay rate. Here, we present a first numerical evaluation of the dominant corrections in light nuclei based on quantum Monte Carlo methods, confirming the expectations from the EFT power counting. Finally, we discuss strategies how to extract from data the low-energy constants that parametrize short-distance contributions and whose values are not predicted by the EFT. Combined with advances in ab initio nuclear-structure calculations, this EFT framework allows one to systematically address the dominant uncertainty in V ud , as illustrated in detail for the 14 O → 14 N transition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Staggered scheme for the compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics of multispecies fluid mixtures

Here, we present a numerical formulation for the solution of nonisothermal, compressible Navier-Stokes equations with thermal fluctuations to describe mesoscale transport phenomena in multispecies fluid mixtures. The novelty of our numerical method is the use of staggered grid momenta along with a finite volume discretization of the thermodynamic variables to solve the resulting stochastic partial differential equations. The key advantages of the numerical scheme are that it significantly simplifies the discretization of diffusive and stochastic momentum fluxes into a more compact form, and it provides an unambiguous prescription of boundary conditions involving pressure. The staggered grid scheme more accurately reproduces the equilibrium static structure factor of hydrodynamic fluctuations in gas mixtures compared to a collocated scheme described previously by Balakrishnan et al. [Phys. Rev. E 89, 013017 (2014)1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.89.013017]. The numerical method is tested for ideal noble gases mixtures under various nonequilibrium conditions, such as applied thermal and concentration gradients, to assess the role of cross-diffusion effects, such as Soret and Dufour, on the long-ranged correlations of hydrodynamic fluctuations, which are also more accurately reproduced compared to the collocated scheme. We numerically study giant nonequilibrium fluctuations driven by concentration gradients and fluctuation-driven Rayleigh-Taylor instability in gas mixtures. Wherever applicable, excellent agreement is observed with theory and measurements from the direct simulation Monte Carlo method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-12 Free-Jet Probe Calibration Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis thf at was performed for the Free Jet Calibration Facility (CE-12) located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for systematic uncertainty estimates in a number of fluid properties of the free jet flow are presented. Systematic uncertainty captures inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other similar sources which may introduce bias. MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation uncertainty and engineering judgment was used to quantify other systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

CE-12↗

Quantum Drude oscillators coupled with Coulomb potential as an efficient model for bonded and non-covalent interactions in atomic dimers

The quantum Drude oscillator (QDO) model has been widely used as an efficient surrogate to describe the electric response properties of matter as well as long-range interactions in molecules and materials. Most commonly, QDOs are coupled within the dipole approximation so that the Hamiltonian can be exactly diagonalized, which forms the basis for the many-body dispersion method [Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 236402 (2012)]. The dipole coupling is efficient and allows us to study non-covalent many-body effects in systems with thousands of atoms. However, there are two limitations: (i) the need to regularize the interaction at short distances with empirical damping functions and (ii) the lack of multipolar effects in the coupling potential. In this work, we convincingly address both limitations of the dipole-coupled QDO model by presenting a numerically exact solution of the Coulomb-coupled QDO model by means of quantum Monte Carlo methods. We calculate the potential-energy surfaces of homogeneous QDO dimers, analyzing their properties as a function of the three tunable parameters: frequency, reduced mass, and charge. We study the coupled-QDO model behavior at short distances and show how to parameterize this model to enable an effective description of chemical bonds, such as the covalent bond in the H2 molecule.

Chemistry↗

Assessment of the point-source method for estimating dose rates to members of the public from exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) initiated a contract with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to calculate radiation dose rates to members of the public that may result from exposure to patients recently administered iodine-131 ( 131 I) as part of medical therapy. The main purpose was to compare dose rate estimates based on a point source and target with values derived from more realistic simulations that considered the time-dependent distribution of 131 I in the patient and attenuation of emitted photons by the patient’s tissues. The external dose rate estimates were derived using Monte Carlo methods and two representations of the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs, previously developed by ORNL and the USNRC, to model the patient and a nearby member of the public. Dose rates to tissues and effective dose rates were calculated for distances ranging from 10 to 300 cm between the phantoms and compared to estimates based on the point-source method, as well as to results of previous studies that estimated exposure from 131 I patients. The point-source method overestimates dose rates to members of the public in very close proximity to an 131 I patient but is a broadly accurate method of dose rate estimation at separation distances of 300 cm or more at times closer to administration.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Uncertainty Aware Structural Topology Optimization Via a Stochastic Reduced Order Model Approach

This work presents a stochastic reduced order modeling strategy for the quantification and propagation of uncertainties in topology optimization. Uncertainty aware optimization problems can be computationally complex due to the substantial number of model evaluations that are necessary to accurately quantify and propagate uncertainties. This computational complexity is greatly magnified if a high-fidelity, physics-based numerical model is used for the topology optimization calculations. Stochastic reduced order model (SROM) methods are applied here to effectively 1) alleviate the prohibitive computational cost associated with an uncertainty aware topology optimization problem; and 2) quantify and propagate the inherent uncertainties due to design imperfections. A generic SROM framework that transforms the uncertainty aware, stochastic topology optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem that relies only on independent calls to a deterministic numerical model is presented. This approach facilitates the use of existing optimization and modeling tools to accurately solve the uncertainty aware topology optimization problems in a fraction of the computational demand required by Monte Carlo methods. Finally, an example in structural topology optimization is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty aware structural topology optimization approach.

Aguilo, Miguel A.↗

Bridging the time scale in exascale computing of chemical systems (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the work carried out with support of the United States Department of Energy under Award DE-SC0019441. The theme of this project was to develop and apply methods that allowed for the acceleration of atomistic calculations, particularly in challenging areas such as multiphase systems, electrified interfaces, uncertainty estimation, and applications requiring chemical accuracy, which tend to be applications where simulation time is severely bottlenecked by the computational time requirements. Much of the focus was on the application of emerging machine-learning methodologies, although a wide range of methodologies were employed. This report has two major sections. The first focuses on the methodological advances themselves. Within this part, we report a number of major advances, a few examples of which are described here. We report the first machine-learning scheme for the acceleration of electronically grand-canonical calculations (that is, those applicable to electrochemistry). We report new methods of performing transfer learning, in which physics-based priors can be used to provide predictions, often with uncertainty estimates, of images well outside of training sets; we also offer ways to fine-tune these transfer-learning models. We provide a new systematic means to generate and apply minimal training data sets to very large (10,000’s of atoms) systems, with only small training sets appropriate for electronic structure. We developed new methodologies to integrate surface vibrations into surface adsorption calculations. We made advances to the applicability of diffusion Monte Carlo methods to allow (learned) force prediction, finite-size error correction, and force-free means of searching for transition states. We integrated machine-learned atomistic predictions into mechanism generation codes. Additionally, we released new software including AmpTorch, a modernized version of our original atomistic machine-learning code Amp. The second part of this report focuses on the scientific applications that accompanied, and were often enabled by, the methodological advances described earlier. A few examples follow, but full details are in the individual chapters of the report. For example, we developed a general theory of phonon-induced friction on molecular adsorbates. We showed fundamentally how solvent influences the adsorption and desorption process and how it differs from the processes typically involved at the solid–gas interface, making aqueous-phase and electrocatalysis different from traditional thermocatalysis. We examined how metal–insulator and magnetic transitions can be probed, and accelerated exciton dynamics via Frenkel Hamiltonian parameters. We showed that the nearsighted force-training approach, developed within this project, can predict both the stability and reactivity of large nanoparticles, and can also lead to insights on catalyst coverage on binding energies and entropies. These applied studies, which generally integrated with our method development, allowed us to push forward the theoretical understanding of several reaction classes.

08 HYDROGEN↗

RAINIER: A simulation tool for distributions of excited nuclear states and cascade fluctuations

In this paper, a new code has been developed named RAINIER that simulates the γ-ray decay of discrete and quasi-continuum nuclear levels for a user-specified range of energy, angular momentum, and parity including a realistic treatment of level spacing and transition width fluctuations. A similar program, DICEBOX, uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate level and width fluctuations but is restricted in its initial level population algorithm. On the other hand, modern reaction codes such as TALYS and EMPIRE populate a wide range of states in the residual nucleus prior to γ-ray decay, but do not go beyond the use of deterministic functions and therefore neglect cascade fluctuations. This combination of capabilities allows RAINIER to be used to determine quasi-continuum properties through comparison with experimental data. Finally, several examples are given that demonstrate how cascade fluctuations influence experimental high-resolution γ-ray spectra from reactions that populate a wide range of initial states.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Phase diagram of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Hubbard model on a square lattice

The Hubbard and Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) Hamiltonians are iconic models for understanding the qualitative effects of electron-electron and electron-phonon interactions, respectively. In the two-dimensional square lattice Hubbard model at half filling, the on-site Coulomb repulsion U between up and down electrons induces antiferromagnetic (AFM) order and a Mott insulating phase. On the other hand, for the SSH model, there is an AFM phase when the electron-phonon coupling λ is less than a critical value λ c and a bond order wave when λ > λ c . In this Letter, we perform numerical studies on the square lattice optical Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Hubbard Hamiltonian, which combines both interactions. We use the determinant quantum Monte Carlo method which does not suffer from the fermionic sign problem at half filling. We map out the phase diagram and find that it exhibits a direct first-order transition between an antiferromagnetic phase and a bond-ordered wave as λ increases. Here, the AFM phase is characterized by two different regions. At smaller λ the behavior is similar to that of the pure Hubbard model; the other region, while maintaining long-range AFM order, exhibits larger kinetic energies and double occupancy, i.e., larger quantum fluctuations, similar to the AFM phase found in the pure SSH model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗