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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of an equation‐oriented framework to formulate and estimate parameters of chemical looping reaction models

Abstract Accurate, predictive reaction models are critical for the design and optimization of chemical looping combustion (CLC) reactors. The formulation and estimation of kinetic parameters for these reaction models using a first‐principles equation‐oriented (EO) approach is particularly beneficial as large amounts of experimental data spanning process‐relevant conditions can be used to estimate parameters in a computationally tractable way. This work demonstrates the application of a novel EO framework to develop reduction reaction kinetic models of an iron‐based CLC oxygen carrier (OC). An optimization problem is formulated to estimate kinetic parameters that provide the best fit to the experimental data. The model predicts the state of the OC with mean square error values of 2.5%–4.4% across the full range of validation data, including multiple reduction cycles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Feedstock Characterization and Modeling to Facilitate Optimal Preprocessing and Deconstruction of Corn Stover (Final Report)

This project addresses the challenge of processing corn stover by fractionating this biomass feedstock to both streamline processing and generate new potential co-products. Additionally, the project developed new field-deployable analytical tools that can be coupled with empirical models that were used to predict feedstock properties and processing performance. The overall scope of this project was: (1) identify conditions for optimal corn stover fractionation using a two- stage physical fractionation, (2) assess how physical fractionation impacts properties, partitioning of biomass, and response to processing, (3) further adapt, develop, and validate several advanced characterization tools for assessing biomass properties that can be linked to processing behavior, and (4) develop and validate predictive models based on measurements that can be performed “in the field” or “at the biorefinery gate” to predict feedstock processing behavior (preprocessing and deconstruction). The first objective employed pre-separation processing (size reduction) which was next subjected to enhanced separations to yield fractions enriched or depleted in select compositional components or properties. For the second objective, fractions were screened for their response to post-separation processing (pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis). Detailed characterization profiles were developed and dynamic image analysis to assess distribution of particle size and morphology. For the final objective, we utilized these tools to develop empirical models to assess the relative abundance of tissue type in order to assess fractionation efficacy and to predict fraction performance during pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging structure-informed machine learning for fast steric zipper propensity prediction across whole proteomes

Predicting the amyloid fold and the propensity of peptide segments to adopt amyloid-like structures remain a challenge. However, recent progress has facilitated structure-based prediction of steric zipper propensity and the use of machine learning to accelerate the calculation of predictive models across many scientific areas. Leveraging these advances, we have developed a new approach for rapid proteome-wide assessment of zipper profiles that is informed by four million steric zipper predictions collected over ten years. This collection is used to build a machine learning model capable of rapidly predicting steric zipper propensity, and allowing for the assessment of zippers at both the protein and proteome level. Our predictions show enrichment for zipper forming segments in proteins involved in cell wall reorganization in yeast, highlighting a potential category of interest for experimental characterization. Overall, our predictive model allows for the exploration of amyloid formation across the tree of life and provides a tool for assessment of both novel and designed sequences for zipper density.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutrons in MINERvA and the Antineutrino Multi-Neutron Production Cross Section

Neutrinos are among a handful of particles in the Standard Model of particle physics whose properties have not yet been fully measured. Neutrino oscillations, discovered in the late 1990s, still have yet to be fully characterized. Early evidence suggests that neutrinos and antineutrinos may undergo neutrino oscillations differently. So, multiple collaborations are building and operating kTon-scale particle detectors to try to measure this CP violation in the neutrino sector of the Standard Model. Measuring neutrino and antineutrino energies is essential to characterizing oscillation phenomena. But neutrons interfere with (anti)neutrino energy measurements because they are hard to detect in (anti)neutrino detectors. Furthermore, there are very few measurements of neutrons produced by (anti)neutrinos in the energy range of interest to accelerator-based oscillation experiments. The MINERvA collaboration initially tried to fill this gap by measuring the rate of neutron-induced activity i n plastic. The data deviated significantly from leading model predictions, but it could not be determined which models needed to be tuned. MINERvA’s first neutron counting result also cannot be compared to future models because it was not suitable for unsmearing. This thesis first expands upon MINERvA’s first foray into neutron detection at higher antineutrino energy. Neutron detection efficiency is enhanced by advances in analysis algorithms. Then, an unsmeared cross section for producing two or more neutrons is measured. Existing antineutrino interaction models again over-predict the rate of neutron production by antineutrinos. Preliminary neutron production rate measurements in MINERvA’s iron and lead targets suggest that models are also over-predicting neutron production in heavier nuclei.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting discomfort from glare with pedestrian-scale lighting: A comparison of candidate models using four independent datasets

After dark, pedestrians may experience discomfort from glare caused by outdoor lighting. While several models for measuring discomfort have been proposed, there is no consensus as to which model should be used. The performances of different models were investigated using datasets from four independent studies, comparing the degree of association between model predictions and subjective ratings, and the ability of a model to distinguish between discomfort and non-discomfort situations. The models tested are those proposed by Petherbridge and Hopkinson in 1950, Schmidt-Clausen and Bindels in 1974, Bullough et al. in 2008 and Lin et al. in 2014 and 2015. They also include two quantities: direct illuminance at the eye from the glare source and average source luminance. Of the models tested, the best performance was found using either the model proposed by Bullough et al. in 2008 or by direct illuminance at the eye.

Abboushi, B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2021

C3PU:Real-Time Predictive Charge Control Software for Battery Management Systems (Code for Charge Control and Predictive Unit) [SWR-21-48]

C3PU sets up a model predictive control formulation for the optimal charging control of battery packs and can be deployed for real-time operation on an embedded microprocessor. C3PU uses electrochemical and thermal models of battery packs to predict the charging trajectories of the battery pack over a time horizon under different operating conditions. It then selects the optimal charging trajectory such that a pre-defined objective is minimized, which in the present state of the code is to minimize the charging duration of the battery pack. The optimal charging trajectory is obtained by solving an underlying mathematical problem. However, C3PU is flexible to incorporate other charging objectives. The underlying battery models can be swapped as well, as long as they follow certain mathematical properties. Mathematically, optimal control problems (in this case, optimally controlling the charging current of the battery pack) are computationally expensive. C3PU implements advanced numerical techniques, namely pseudo-spectral optimization, to reduce the computational burden of the underlying problem to solve. This allows for the problem to be solved in real-time in an embedded system. Once the optimal charging trajectory is computed over a time horizon, C3PU can package such data and send it out via appropriate communication protocols.

Mishra, Partha↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Ultrasound Image Augmentation and Ensemble Predictions to Prevent Machine-Learning Model Overfitting

Deep learning predictive models have the potential to simplify and automate medical imaging diagnostics by lowering the skill threshold for image interpretation. However, this requires predictive models that are generalized to handle subject variability as seen clinically. Here, we highlight methods to improve test accuracy of an image classifier model for shrapnel identification using tissue phantom image sets. Using a previously developed image classifier neural network—termed ShrapML—blind test accuracy was less than 70% and was variable depending on the training/test data setup, as determined by a leave one subject out (LOSO) holdout methodology. Introduction of affine transformations for image augmentation or MixUp methodologies to generate additional training sets improved model performance and overall accuracy improved to 75%. Further improvements were made by aggregating predictions across five LOSO holdouts. This was done by bagging confidences or predictions from all LOSOs or the top-3 LOSO confidence models for each image prediction. Top-3 LOSO confidence bagging performed best, with test accuracy improved to greater than 85% accuracy for two different blind tissue phantoms. This was confirmed by gradient-weighted class activation mapping to highlight that the image classifier was tracking shrapnel in the image sets. Overall, data augmentation and ensemble prediction approaches were suitable for creating more generalized predictive models for ultrasound image analysis, a critical step for real-time diagnostic deployment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The ab initio non-crystalline structure database: empowering machine learning to decode diffusivity

Non-crystalline materials exhibit unique properties that make them suitable for various applications in science and technology, ranging from optical and electronic devices and solid-state batteries to protective coatings. However, data-driven exploration and design of non-crystalline materials is hampered by the absence of a comprehensive database covering a broad chemical space. In this work, we present the largest computed non-crystalline structure database to date, generated from systematic and accurate ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) calculations. We also show how the database can be used in simple machine-learning models to connect properties to composition and structure, here specifically targeting ionic conductivity. These models predict the Li-ion diffusivity with speed and accuracy, offering a cost-effective alternative to expensive density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Furthermore, the process of computational quenching non-crystalline structures provides a unique sampling of out-of-equilibrium structures, energies, and force landscape, and we anticipate that the corresponding trajectories will inform future work in universal machine learning potentials, impacting design beyond that of non-crystalline materials. In addition, combining diffusion trajectories from our dataset with models that predict liquidus viscosity and melting temperature could be utilized to develop models for predicting glass-forming ability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating AlphaFold and deep learning for atomistic interpretation of cryo-EM maps

Abstract Interpretation of cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps requires building and fitting 3D atomic models of biological molecules. AlphaFold-predicted models generate initial 3D coordinates; however, model inaccuracy and conformational heterogeneity often necessitate labor-intensive manual model building and fitting into cryo-EM maps. In this work, we designed a protein model-building workflow, which combines a deep-learning cryo-EM map feature enhancement tool, CryoFEM (Cryo-EM Feature Enhancement Model) and AlphaFold. A benchmark test using 36 cryo-EM maps shows that CryoFEM achieves state-of-the-art performance in optimizing the Fourier Shell Correlations between the maps and the ground truth models. Furthermore, in a subset of 17 datasets where the initial AlphaFold predictions are less accurate, the workflow significantly improves their model accuracy. Our work demonstrates that the integration of modern deep learning image enhancement and AlphaFold may lead to automated model building and fitting for the atomistic interpretation of cryo-EM maps.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of global and local deformation in additively manufactured octet truss lattice structures

Additively manufactured lattice truss structures, often referred to as architected cellular materials, present significant advantages over conventional structures due to their unique characteristics such as high strength-to-weight ratios and surface area-to-volume ratios. These geometrically complex structures, however, come with concomitant challenges for qualification and inspection. In this study, compression testing interrupted with micro-computed tomography inspection was conducted to monitor the evolution of global and local deformation throughout the loading process of 304L stainless steel octet truss lattice structures. Both two- and three-dimensional image analysis techniques were leveraged to characterize geometric heterogeneities resulting from the laser powder bed fusion manufacturing process as well as track the structure throughout deformation. Variations from model-predicted behavior resulting from these heterogeneities are considered relative to the predicted and actual responses of the structures during compression to better understand, model, and predict the octet truss lattice structure compression response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗