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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Controlling $H_{3}^{+}$ Formation From Ethane Using Shaped Ultrafast Laser Pulses

An adaptive learning algorithm coupled with 3D momentum-based feedback is used to identify intense laser pulse shapes that control $H_{3}^{+}$ formation from ethane. Specifically, we controlled the ratio of D 2 H + to $D_{3}^{+}$ produced from the D 3 C-CH 3 isotopologue of ethane, which selects between trihydrogen cations formed from atoms on one or both sides of ethane. We are able to modify the D 2 H + :$D_{3}^{+}$ ratio by a factor of up to three. In addition, two-dimensional scans of linear chirp and third-order dispersion are conducted for a few fourth-order dispersion values while the D 2 H + and $D_{3}^{+}$ production rates are monitored. The optimized pulse is observed to influence the yield, kinetic energy release, and angular distribution of the D 2 H + ions while the $D_{3}^{+}$ ion dynamics remain relatively stable. We subsequently conducted COLTRIMS experiments on C 2 D 6 to complement the velocity map imaging data obtained during the control experiments and measured the branching ratio of two-body double ionization. Two-body $D_{3}^{+}$ + $C_{2}D_{3}^{+}$ is the dominant final channel containing $D_{3}^{+}$ ions, although the three-body D + $D_{3}^{+}$ + $C_{2}D_{2}^{+}$ final state is also observed.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating polar field data for improved solar flare prediction

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun’s north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active regions on the photospheric magnetic field of the sun, the polar field data provides global information to the predictor. While such global features have been previously proposed for predicting the next solar cycle’s intensity, in this paper we propose using them to help classify individual solar flares. We conduct experiments using HMI data employing four different machine learning algorithms that can exploit polar field information. Additionally, we propose a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model that can simply and effectively incorporate polar field data and provide on-par prediction performance with state-of-the-art solar flare prediction algorithms such as the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Our experimental results indicate the usefulness of the polar field data for solar flare prediction, which can improve Heidke Skill Score (HSS2) by as much as 10.1%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Evaluation of Aircraft Icing Severity Using Machine Learning Based on XGBoost

Aircraft icing represents a serious hazard in aviation which has caused a number of fatal accidents over the years. In addition, it can lead to substantial increase in drag and weight, thus reducing the aerodynamics performance of the airplane. The process of ice accretion on a solid surface is a complex interaction of aerodynamic and environmental variables. The complex relationship makes machine learning-based methods an attractive alternative to traditional numerical simulation-based approaches. In this study, we introduce a purely data-driven approach to find the complex pattern between different flight conditions and aircraft icing severity prediction. The supervised learning algorithm Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is applied to establish the prediction framework which makes prediction based on any set of observations. The input flight conditions for the proposed prediction framework are liquid water content, droplet diameter and exposure time. The proposed approach is demonstrated in three cases: maximum ice thickness prediction, icing area prediction and icing severity level evaluation. Performance comparison studies and error analysis are also conducted to verify the effectiveness and performance of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has reasonable capability in evaluating aircraft icing severity.

Li, Sibo (ORCID:000000021705844X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comparison between Invariant and Equivariant Classical and Quantum Graph Neural Networks

Machine learning algorithms are heavily relied on to understand the vast amounts of data from high-energy particle collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The data from such collision events can naturally be represented with graph structures. Therefore, deep geometric methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), have been leveraged for various data analysis tasks in high-energy physics. One typical task is jet tagging, where jets are viewed as point clouds with distinct features and edge connections between their constituent particles. The increasing size and complexity of the LHC particle datasets, as well as the computational models used for their analysis, have greatly motivated the development of alternative fast and efficient computational paradigms such as quantum computation. In addition, to enhance the validity and robustness of deep networks, we can leverage the fundamental symmetries present in the data through the use of invariant inputs and equivariant layers. In this paper, we provide a fair and comprehensive comparison of classical graph neural networks (GNNs) and equivariant graph neural networks (EGNNs) and their quantum counterparts: quantum graph neural networks (QGNNs) and equivariant quantum graph neural networks (EQGNN). The four architectures were benchmarked on a binary classification task to classify the parton-level particle initiating the jet. Based on their area under the curve (AUC) scores, the quantum networks were found to outperform the classical networks. However, seeing the computational advantage of quantum networks in practice may have to wait for the further development of quantum technology and its associated application programming interfaces (APIs).

Forestano, Roy T. (ORCID:0000000203552076)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Representing Small Commercial Building Faults in EnergyPlus, Part I: Model Development

Small commercial buildings (those with less than approximately 1000 m2 of total floor area) often do not have access to cost-effective automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) tools for maintaining efficient building operations. AFDD tools based on machine-learning algorithms hold promise for lowering cost barriers for AFDD in small commercial buildings; however, such algorithms require access to high-quality training data that is often difficult to obtain. To fill the gap in this research area, this study covers the development (Part I) and validation (Part II) of fault models that can be used with the building energy modeling software EnergyPlus® and OpenStudio® to generate a cost-effective training data set for developing AFDD algorithms. Part I (this paper) presents a library of fault models, including detailed descriptions of each fault model structure and their implementation with EnergyPlus. This paper also discusses a case study of training data set generation, representing an actual building.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Representing Small Commercial Building Faults in EnergyPlus, Part II: Model Validation

Automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) tools based on machine-learning algorithms hold promise for lowering cost barriers for AFDD in small commercial buildings; however, access to high-quality training data for such algorithms is often difficult to obtain. To fill the gap in this research area, this study covers the development (Part I) and validation (Part II) of fault models that can be used with the building energy modeling software EnergyPlus® and OpenStudio® to generate a cost-effective training data set for developing AFDD algorithms. Part II (this paper) first presents a methodology of validating fault models with OpenStudio and then presents validation results, which are compared against measurements from a reference building. We discuss the results of our experiments with eight different faults in the reference building (a total of 39 different baseline and faulted scenarios), including our methodology for using fault models along with the reference building model to simulate the same faulted scenarios. Then, we present validation of the fault models by comparing results of simulations and experiments either quantitatively or qualitatively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Magnetoencephalographic/Encephalographic (MEG/EEG) Brain-Computer Interface Driver for Interactive iOS Mobile Videogame Applications Utilizing the Hadoop Ecosystem, MongoDB, and Cassandra NoSQL Databases

In Phase I, we collected data on five subjects yielding over 90% positive performance in Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) mid-and post-movement activity. In addition, a driver was developed that substituted the actions of the Brain Computer Interface (BCI) as mouse button presses for real-time use in visual simulations. The process was interfaced to a flight visualization demonstration utilizing left or right brainwave thought movement, the user experiences, the aircraft turning in the chosen direction, or on iOS Mobile Warfighter Videogame application. The BCI’s data analytics of a subject’s MEG brain waves and flight visualization performance videogame analytics were stored and analyzed using the Hadoop Ecosystem as a quick retrieval data warehouse. In Phase II portion of the project involves the Emotiv Encephalographic (EEG) Wireless Brain–Computer interfaces (BCIs) allow for people to establish a novel communication channel between the human brain and a machine, in this case, an iOS Mobile Application(s). The EEG BCI utilizes advanced and novel machine learning algorithms, as well as the Spark Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), Cassandra NoSQL database environment, and also the competitor NoSQL MongoDB database for housing BCI analytics of subject’s response and users’ intent illustrated for both MEG/EEG brainwave signal acquisition. The wireless EEG signals that were acquired from the OpenVibe and the Emotiv EPOC headset can be connected via Bluetooth to an iPhone utilizing a thin Client architecture. The use of NoSQL databases were chosen because of its schema-less architecture and Map Reduce computational paradigm algorithm for housing a user’s brain signals from each referencing sensor. Thus, in the near future, if multiple users are playing on an online network connection and an MEG/EEG sensor fails, or if the connection is lost from the smartphone and the webserver due to low battery power or failed data transmission, it will not nullify the NoSQL document-oriented (MongoDB) or column-oriented Cassandra databases. Additionally, NoSQL databases have fast querying and indexing methodologies, which are perfect for online game analytics and technology. In Phase II, we collected data on five MEG subjects, yielding over 90% positive performance on iOS Mobile Applications with Objective-C and C++, however on EEG signals utilized on three subjects with the Emotiv wireless headsets and (n < 10) subjects from the OpenVibe EEG database the Variational Bayesian Factor Analysis Algorithm (VBFA) yielded below 60% performance and we are currently pursuing extending the VBFA algorithm to work in the time-frequency domain referred to as VBFA-TF to enhance EEG performance in the near future. The novel usage of NoSQL databases, Cassandra and MongoDB, were the primary main enhancements of the BCI Phase II MEG/EEG brain signal data acquisition, queries, and rapid analytics, with MapReduce and Spark DAG demonstrating future implications for next generation biometric MEG/EEG NoSQL databases.

McClay, Wilbert↗
DOE OSTI2020

Protein Conformational States—A First Principles Bayesian Method

Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naïve Bayes classifier from the machine learning community for use on atom-to-atom pairwise contacts. The result is an unsupervised learning algorithm that samples a ‘distribution’ over potential classification schemes. We apply the classifier to a series of test structures and one real protein, showing that it identifies the conformational transition with >95% accuracy in most cases. A nontrivial feature of our adaptation is a new connection to information entropy that allows us to vary the level of structural detail without spoiling the categorization. This is confirmed by comparing results as the number of atoms and time-samples are varied over 1.5 orders of magnitude. Further, the method’s derivation from Bayesian analysis on the set of inter-atomic contacts makes it easy to understand and extend to more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Compressional Velocity and Bulk Density Logs in Marine Gas Hydrates Using Machine Learning

Compressional velocity (Vp) and bulk density (ρb) logs are essential for characterizing gas hydrates and near-seafloor sediments; however, it is sometimes difficult to acquire these logs due to poor borehole conditions, safety concerns, or cost-related issues. We present a machine learning approach to predict either compressional Vp or ρb logs with high accuracy and low error in near-seafloor sediments within water-saturated intervals, in intervals where hydrate fills fractures, and intervals where hydrate occupies the primary pore space. We use scientific-quality logging-while-drilling well logs, gamma ray, ρb, Vp, and resistivity to train the machine learning model to predict Vp or ρb logs. Of the six machine learning algorithms tested (multilinear regression, polynomial regression, polynomial regression with ridge regularization, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and multilayer perceptron), we find that the random forest and K nearest neighbors algorithms are best suited to predicting Vp and ρb logs based on coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 70% and mean absolute percentage errors less than 4%. Given the high accuracy and low error results for Vp and ρb prediction in both hydrate and water-saturated sediments, we argue that our model can be applied in most LWD wells to predict Vp or ρb logs in near-seafloor siliciclastic sediments on continental slopes irrespective of the presence or absence of gas hydrate.

Naim, Fawz↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low Molecular Weight Volatile Organic Compounds Indicate Grazing by the Marine Rotifer Brachionus plicatilis on the Microalgae Microchloropsis salina

Microalgae produce specific chemicals indicative of stress and/or death. The aim of this study was to perform non-destructive monitoring of algal culture systems, in the presence and absence of grazers, to identify potential biomarkers of incipient pond crashes. Here, we report ten volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are robustly generated by the marine alga, Microchloropsis salina, in the presence and/or absence of the marine grazer, Brachionus plicatilis. We cultured M. salina with and without B. plicatilis and collected in situ volatile headspace samples using thermal desorption tubes over the course of several days. Data from four experiments were aggregated, deconvoluted, and chromatographically aligned to determine VOCs with tentative identifications made via mass spectral library matching. VOCs generated by algae in the presence of actively grazing rotifers were confirmed via pure analytical standards to be pentane, 3-pentanone, 3-methylhexane, and 2-methylfuran. Six other VOCs were less specifically associated with grazing but were still commonly observed between the four replicate experiments. Through this work, we identified four biomarkers of rotifer grazing that indicate algal stress/death. This will aid machine learning algorithms to chemically define and diagnose algal mass production cultures and save algae cultures from imminent crash to make biofuel an alternative energy possibility.

headspace sampling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Acoustic vs. AI-Based Satellite Leak Detection in Aging US Water Infrastructure: A Cost and Energy Savings Analysis

The aging water distribution system in the United States, constructed mainly during the 1970s with some pipes dating back 125 years, is experiencing significant deterioration leading to substantial water losses. Along with the potential for water loss savings, improvements in the distribution system by using leak detection technologies can create net energy and cost savings. In this work, a new framework has been presented to calculate the economic level of leakage within water supply and distribution systems for two primary leak detection technologies (acoustic vs. satellite). In this work, a new framework is presented to calculate the economic level of leakage (ELL) within water supply and distribution systems to support smart infrastructure in smart cities. A case study focused using water audit data from Atlanta, Georgia, compared the costs of two leak mitigation technologies: conventional acoustic leak detection and artificial intelligence–assisted satellite leak detection technology, which employs machine learning algorithms to identify potential leak signatures from satellite imagery. The ELL results revealed that conducting one survey would be optimum for an acoustic survey, whereas the method suggested that it would be expensive to utilize satellite-based leak detection technology. However, results for cumulative financial analysis over a 3-year period for both technologies revealed both to be economically favorable with conventional acoustic leak detection technology generating higher net economic benefits of USD 2.4 million, surpassing satellite detection by 50%. A broader national analysis was conducted to explore the potential benefits of US water infrastructure mirroring the exemplary conditions of Germany and The Netherlands. Achieving similar infrastructure leakage index (ILI) values could result in annual cost savings of $\$4$–$\$4.8$ billion and primary energy savings of 1.6–1.9 TWh. These results demonstrate the value of combining economic modeling with advanced leak detection technologies to support sustainable, cost-efficient water infrastructure strategies in urban environments, contributing to more sustainable smart living outcomes.

acoustic leak detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building Stock Models for Embodied Carbon Emissions—A Review of a Nascent Field

Building stock modeling emerges as a critical tool in the strategic reduction of embodied carbon emissions, which is pivotal in reshaping the evolving construction sector. This review provides an overall view of modern methodologies in building stock modeling, homing in on the nuances of embodied carbon analysis in construction. Examining 23 seminal papers, our study delineates two primary modeling paradigms—top-down and bottom-up—each further compartmentalized into five innovative methods. This study points out the challenges of data scarcity and computational demands, advocating for methodological advancements that promise to refine the precision of building stock models. A groundbreaking trend in recent research is the incorporation of machine learning algorithms, which have demonstrated remarkable capacity, improving stock classification accuracy by 25% and urban material quantification by 40%. Furthermore, the application of remote sensing has revolutionized data acquisition, enhancing data richness by a factor of five. This review offers a critical examination of current practices and charts a course toward an environmentally prudent future. It underscores the transformative impact of building stock modeling in driving ecological stewardship in the construction industry, positioning it as a cornerstone in the quest for sustainability and its significant contribution toward the grand vision of an eco-efficient built environment.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of Sustainable Power System Resilience in the Face of Severe Weather Conditions and Climate Changes: A Comprehensive Review of Current Advances

Natural disasters pose significant threats to power distribution systems, intensified by the increasing impacts of climate changes. Resilience-enhancement strategies are crucial in mitigating the resulting social and economic damages. Hence, this review paper presents a comprehensive exploration of weather management strategies, augmented by recent advancements in machine learning algorithms, to show a sustainable resilience assessment. By addressing the unique challenges posed by diverse weather conditions, we propose flexible and intelligent solutions to navigate disaster complications effectively. This proposition emphasizes sustainable practices that not only address immediate disaster complications, but also prioritize long-term resilience and adaptability. Furthermore, the focus extends to mitigation strategies and microgrid technologies adapted to distribution systems. Through statistical analysis and mathematical formulations, we highlight the critical role of these advancements in mitigating severe weather conditions and ensuring the system reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reclassification of ASFV into 7 Biotypes Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

In 2007, an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), a deadly disease of domestic swine and wild boar caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), occurred in Georgia and has since spread globally. Historically, ASFV was classified into 25 different genotypes. However, a newly proposed system recategorized all ASFV isolates into 6 genotypes exclusively using the predicted protein sequences of p72. However, ASFV has a large genome that encodes between 150–200 genes, and classifications using a single gene are insufficient and misleading, as strains encoding an identical p72 often have significant mutations in other areas of the genome. We present here a new classification of ASFV based on comparisons performed considering the entire encoded proteome. A curated database consisting of the protein sequences predicted to be encoded by 220 reannotated ASFV genomes was analyzed for similarity between homologous protein sequences. Weights were applied to the protein identity matrices and averaged to generate a genome-genome identity matrix that was then analyzed by an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, DBSCAN, to separate the genomes into distinct clusters. We conclude that all available ASFV genomes can be classified into 7 distinct biotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

PREDICTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS

Of all the activity observed on the Sun, two of the most energetic events are flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Usually, solar active regions that produce large flares will also produce a CME, but this is not always true. Despite advances in numerical modeling, it is still unclear which circumstances will produce a CME. Therefore, it is worthwhile to empirically determine which features distinguish flares associated with CMEs from flares that are not. At this time, no extensive study has used physically meaningful features of active regions to distinguish between these two populations. As such, we attempt to do so by using features derived from (1) photospheric vector magnetic field data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory ’s Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument and (2) X-ray flux data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite’s X-ray Flux instrument. We build a catalog of active regions that either produced both a flare and a CME (the positive class) or simply a flare (the negative class). We then use machine-learning algorithms to (1) determine which features distinguish these two populations, and (2) forecast whether an active region that produces an M- or X-class flare will also produce a CME. We compute the True Skill Statistic, a forecast verification metric, and find that it is a relatively high value of ∼0.8 ± 0.2. We conclude that a combination of six parameters, which are all intensive in nature, will capture most of the relevant information contained in the photospheric magnetic field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterization of Near-Earth Asteroids Using KMTNET-SAAO

We present here VRI spectrophotometry of 39 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) observed with the Sutherland, South Africa, node of the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet). Of the 39 NEAs, 19 were targeted, but because of KMTNet’s large 2° × 2° field of view, 20 serendipitous NEAs were also captured in the observing fields. Targeted observations were performed within 44 days (median: 16 days, min: 4 days) of each NEA’s discovery date. Our broadband spectrophotometry is reliable enough to distinguish among four asteroid taxonomies and we were able to confidently categorize 31 of the 39 observed targets as either an S-, C-, X-, or D-type asteroid by means of a Machine Learning algorithm approach. Our data suggest that the ratio between “stony” S-type NEAs and “not-stony” (C+X+D)-type NEAs, with H magnitudes between 15 and 25, is roughly 1:1. Additionally, we report ∼1 hr light curve data for each NEA, and of the 39 targets, we were able to resolve the complete rotation period and amplitude for six targets and report lower limits for the remaining targets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Clustering of High-redshift (2.9 ≤ $z$ ≤ 5.1) Quasars in SDSS Stripe 82

We present a measurement of the two-point autocorrelation function of photometrically selected high-$z$ quasars over ~100 deg 2 on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 field. Selection is performed using three machine-learning algorithms in a six-dimensional optical/mid-infrared color space. Optical data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey are combined with overlapping deep mid-infrared data from the $Spitzer$ IRAC Equatorial Survey and the $Spitzer$-HETDEX Exploratory Large-Area survey. Our selection algorithms are trained on the colors of known high-$z$ quasars. The selected quasar sample consists of 1378 objects and contains both spectroscopically confirmed quasars and photometrically selected quasar candidates. These objects span a redshift range of 2.9 ≤ $z$ ≤ 5.1 and are generally fainter than $i$ = 20.2, a regime that has lacked sufficient number density to perform autocorrelation function measurements of photometrically classified quasars. We compute the angular correlation function of these data, marginally detecting quasar clustering. We fit a single power law with an index of $δ$ = 1.39 ± 0.618 and amplitude of $θ_0$ = 0$^{\prime}_{.}$71 ± 0$^{\prime}_{.}$546 . A dark matter model is fit to the angular correlation function to estimate the linear bias. At the average redshift of our survey ($\langle z\rangle =3.38$), the bias is $b$ = 6.78 ± 1.79. Using this bias, we calculate a characteristic dark matter halo mass of 1.70–9.83$\times {10}^{12}{h}^{-1}\,{M}_{\odot }$. Our bias estimate suggests that quasar feedback intermittently shuts down the accretion of gas onto the central supermassive black hole at early times. If confirmed, these results hint at a level of luminosity dependence in the clustering of quasars at high-$z$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗