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Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nonequilibrium effects in high-gain inertial confinement fusion

Recent experimental demonstrations of ignition and target gain in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) have stimulated interest in exploring the fundamental physics of violent deuterium-tritium (DT) burn in high-gain ICF targets. A significant DT-burn fraction is a necessary condition for high energy gain and large neutron yields (>100MJ). Using classical molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations and a hybrid fluid-kinetic model, we examine how a large fraction of low-energy 𝛼 particles can kick D and T ions out of equilibrium in high-gain ICF targets. The MD results suggest that (1) temperatures of 𝑇 𝐷 and 𝑇 𝑇 can differ by as much as ∼20% of their mean temperature and (2) the deviation of the DT energy distribution from the Maxwell-Boltzmann function can exceed ∼30%. Some of these MD observations, such as the preferential heating of D ions by low-energy 𝛼 particles and the temperature separation, can be explained by a proposed hybrid fluid-kinetic model. Furthermore, the implication of such nonequilibrium effects on the DT reactivity is also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages for 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor units, wedging and leaf positions with favorable sensitivity and specificity. In part by Varian.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Results of experiments devoted to searches for 2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and for the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe with the aid of proportional counters

A brief description of two low-background setups deployed at the Baksan Neutrino Observatory (Institute for Nuclear Research, Russian Academy of Sciences) and intended for searches for two types of double-beta decay of inert-gas isotopes-2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe-is given. The two setups in question have similar structures and employ identical large high-pressure copper proportional counters as detectors. Upon a treatment of data from measurements with krypton samples differing in the content of the isotope {sup 78}Kr, the spectrum for an enriched sample revealed an excess of events at a statistical-significance level of about two standard deviations (2{sigma}). If one attributes this excess to 2K(2{nu}) capture on {sup 78}Kr, the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 1.4{sub -0.7}{sup +2.3} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 22} yr at a 90% C.L. A treatment of data from measurements with xenon samples differing in content of the isotope {sup 136}Xe led to the appearance of an excess of events in the spectrum for an enriched sample at a statistical-significance level of about 2.2{sigma}. If one assumes that this excess is due to the two-neutrino double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe, then the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 5.8{sub -1.8}{sup +4.7} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 21} yr.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS): 90 GHz Telescope Pointing, Beam Profile, Window Function, and Polarization Performance

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array that observes the cosmic microwave background (CMB) over ∼75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert, Chile, at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the large angular scale CMB polarization to constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the optical depth to last scattering. This paper presents the optical characterization of the 90 GHz telescope. Observations of the Moon establish the pointing while dedicated observations of Jupiter are used for beam calibration. The standard deviations of the pointing error in azimuth, elevation, and boresight angle are 1$^{'}_.$3, 2$^{'}_.$1, and 2$^{'}_.$0, respectively, over the first 3 yr of observations. This corresponds to a pointing uncertainty ∼7% of the beam’s full width at half-maximum (FWHM). The effective azimuthally symmetrized instrument 1D beam estimated at 90 GHz has an FWHM of 0$^°_.$620 ± 0$^°_.$003 and a solid angle of 138.7 ± 0.6(stats.) ± 1.1(sys.) μsr integrated to a radius of 4°. The corresponding beam window function drops to $b^2_ℓ$ = 0.93, 0.71, 0.14 at ℓ = 30, 100, 300, respectively. Far-sidelobes are studied using detector-centered intensity maps of the Moon and measured to be at a level of 10 −3 or below relative to the peak. The polarization angle of Tau A estimated from preliminary survey maps is 149°.6 ± 0°.2(stats.) in equatorial coordinates. The instrumental temperature-to-polarization (T → P) leakage fraction, inferred from per-detector demodulated Jupiter scan data, has a monopole component at the level of 1.7 × 10 −3 , a dipole component with an amplitude of 4.3 × 10 −3 , with no evidence of quadrupolar leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Signatures of Supersymmetry in Neutrino Telescopes

We review the prospects of probing $R$-parity violating Supersymmetry (RPV SUSY) at neutrino telescopes using some of the highest energy particles given to us by Nature. The presence of RPV interactions involving ultra-high energy neutrinos with Earth-matter can lead to resonant production of TeV-scale SUSY partners of the SM quarks and leptons (squarks and sleptons), thereby giving rise to potentially anomalous behavior in the event spectrum observed by large-volume neutrino detectors, such as IceCube, as well as balloon-borne cosmic ray experiments, such as ANITA. Using the ultra-high energy neutrino events observed recently at IceCube, with the fact that for a given power-law flux of astrophysical neutrinos, there is no statistically significant deviation in the current data from the Standard Model expectations, we derive robust upper limits on the RPV couplings as a function of the resonantly-produced squark mass, independent of the other unknown model parameters, as long as the squarks decay dominantly to two-body final states involving leptons and quarks through the RPV couplings. Also, we discuss RPV SUSY interpretations of the recent anomalous, upward-going EeV air showers observed at ANITA, in terms of long-lived charged or neutral next-to-lightest SUSY particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hints from Run 1 and prospects from Run 2 at ATLAS

The Large Hadron Collider at CERN has allowed the ATLAS experiment to collect a large amount of proton-proton collision data at 7 TeV and 8 TeV centre-of-mass energies throughout Run 1. This dataset was used to discover a Higgs boson with Standard Model-like properties at a mass of about 125 GeV. Furthermore, an impressive number of searches for deviations from the Standard Model expectations have been carried out. To date, no evidence for new physics beyond the SM has been found. However, a few hints in form of 2-3 σ deviations have been observed. After an 18-month shutdown, in which the ATLAS detector has undergone various upgrades, the LHC has again started to deliver collision data at an increased centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, providing a much improved sensitivity for various searches, in particular for high mass particles. Some representative hints at the LHC Run 1 are presented, a brief overview of ATLAS upgrades and prospects for SUSY searches with early Run 2 data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nm-scale electrical resistance imaging on CdTe by scanning spreading resistance microscopy

Local resistance imaging can provide information on nm-scale carrier distribution in semiconductor devices. Scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM), an atomic force microscopy-based nm-scale resistance mapping technique, has been developed for carrier delineation in Si microdevices. We report on the development and validation of SSRM on CdTe materials, by testing on molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) grown CdTe films. The probe/CdTe contact resistance was suppressed sufficiently below sample's spreading resistance by pressing the probe into the sample with ∼mN contact force and applying a large sample/probe forward bias voltage (V s ), which was understood by analyzing current-voltage (I-V) involving a serially connected insulating top layer with underlying spreading resistance. The carrier concentration as deduced from the resistance measurement, using a single mobility value, is consistent with Hall measurement with a standard deviation of 14% based on a set of MBE films with carrier concentrations in the range of 10 15 –10 16 /cm 3 . The doping polarity was readily identified by flipping V s polarity, where the resistance with reverse V s is orders of magnitude larger than forward V s . While focusing on the SSRM technique validation, we also show an example on an As-doped Cd(Se,Te) polycrystalline thin film of a high-performance CdTe solar cell, which illustrates the local resistance nonuniformity with up to two orders of magnitude differences, indicating if local mobility is roughly constant, local carrier concentration can have significant nonuniformity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

COMPARISON OF PIONEER 10, VOYAGER 1, AND VOYAGER 2 ULTRAVIOLET OBSERVATIONS WITH ANTI-SOLAR LYMAN-ALPHA BACKSCATTER SIMULATIONS

Observations made by ultraviolet (UV) detectors on board Pioneer 10, Voyager 1, and Voyager 2 can be used to analyze the distribution of neutral hydrogen throughout the heliosphere, including the interaction regions of the solar wind and local interstellar medium. Previous studies of the long-term trend of decreasing intensity with increasing heliocentric distance established the need for more sophisticated heliospheric models. Here we use state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) neutral models to simulate Lyman-alpha backscatter as would be seen by the three spacecrafts, exploiting a new 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code under solar minimum conditions. Both observations and simulations of the UV backscatter intensity are normalized for each spacecraft flight path at {approx}15 AU, and we focus on the slope of decreasing intensity over an increasing heliocentric distance. Comparisons of simulations with Voyager 1 Lyman-alpha data results in a very close match, while the Pioneer 10 comparison is similar due to normalization, but not considered to be in agreement. The deviations may be influenced by a low resolution of photoionization in the 3D MHD-neutral model, a lack of solar cycle activity in our simulations, and possibly issues with instrumental sensitivity. Comparing the slope of Voyager 2 and the simulated intensities yields an almost identical match. Our results predict a large increase in the Lyman-alpha intensity as the hydrogen wall is approached, which would signal an imminent crossing of the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Density matrix renormalization group description of the island of inversion isotopes F 28 – 33

Recent experiments have confirmed that the neutron-rich isotopes 28,29 F belong to the so-called island of inversion (IOI), a region of the nuclear chart around Z = 10 and N = 20 where nuclear structure deviates from the standard shell model predictions due to deformation and continuum effects. However, while the general principles leading to the IOI are relatively well understood, the details of the low-lying structure of the exotic fluorine isotopes 28–33 F are basically unknown. In this study, we perform large-scale shell model calculations including continuum states to investigate the properties of the neutron-rich isotopes 25–33 F, from a core of 24 O and using an effective two-body interaction with a small number of adjustable parameters in the central and tensor channels. We develop two models adjusted on experimentally confirmed states in 25,26 O and 25–27 F based on different assumptions concerning the positions of the neutron 0d 3/2 and 1p 3/2 shells, and solve the many-body problem using the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method for open quantum systems in an sd–fp model space. We obtain the first detailed spectroscopy of 25–33F in the continuum and show how the interplay between continuum effects and deformation explains the recent data on 28,29 F. Several deformed one- and two-neutron halo states are predicted in 29,31 F, and we provide some information about the possible structure of the heaviest fluorine isotopes. We also suggest several experimental studies of interest to constraint models and test the present predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Enhanced Frequency Support Scheme of Generic Inverter-Based Resource Models for Renewable-Dominated Power Grids

The frequency response of SG-dominated power grids is predictable ahead of an occurrence of a frequency event because the frequency response of SGs is consistent, and it can be inferred from the swing equation [1]. However, increasing the portion of IBRs in an SG-dominated power grid might make the characteristics of the conventional power grids no longer valid because this changing resource mix affects grid dynamics and controls [2]. Thus, maintaining these characteristics greatly benefits the control and operation of the power grids with high penetration of IBRs. To maintain these characteristics in IBR-dominated power grids, IBRs should have frequency response capability similar to that of an SG. The WECC modeling validation subcommittee has developed generic IBR models for large system planning [3]-[5]. These models can represent various vendors' dynamic behavior for WTG, PV, and ESS [5]. The current generic IBR models approved by WECC can provide frequency response only from droop control loops in REPC models [6], [7]. The contribution of the loops is proportional to the frequency deviation from the nominal frequency. Thus, it presents an insufficient contribution to arrest frequency variation compared to the frequency response of SGs because it allows a high ROCOF in the early stage of frequency events. This shortfall will become greater as the PL of IBRs increases in power grids. Controller enhancement for the generic IBR models is required to secure the frequency stability under high PL of IBRs as in the SG-dominated power grids. This paper proposes a control extension for the generic IBR models to enhance the frequency support capabilities and discusses the classification of frequency support for the different types of IBR considering their operating constraints. An inertial control scheme is implemented in the REPC and REEC models of the generic IBR models to achieve these objectives. The inertial control scheme includes the following stages: Control area data acquisition, inertia time constant estimation, IBR-related constraint check, IBR contribution determination, and inertial response provision. In the scheme, a REPC acquires control area data from a system operator and estimates a total inertia time constant for the control area the applicable IBR power plant belongs. Then, the estimated inertial time constant is transferred to each IBR controller—REEC—within the power plant. Each REEC checks the availability of applicable IBR for inertial response participation. If the IBR is available, the REEC amplifies the estimated inertial time constant to utilize it for inertial response provision. In this way, the proposed inertial response scheme extends the functionality of the generic IBR models to provide SG-like frequency response within their constraints. Various scenarios considering different IBR types, IBR penetration levels, and frequency control schemes were simulated and compared in an IEEE 39-bus system using PSCAD simulator to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Kim, Jinho↗

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the point-forecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

SU-E-J-263: Repeatability of SUV and Texture Parameters in Serial PET Studies

Purpose: Standardized uptake values (SUV) are standard quantitative PET measures of FDG tumor uptake used,and are used as a tool to monitor response to therapy. Textural analysis is emerging as a new tool for assessing intratumoral heterogeneity which may allow better tissue characterization and improved prediction of response and survival rate.Understanding what variations may be expected in these parameters is key in order to make decisions based on how the change throughout the course of treatment. The aim of this study was to assess repeatability in SUV measures and texture parameters,and establish criteria that differentiate changes associated with treatment rather than statistical variability. Methods: Eighty patients,167 random lesions total,were scanned in a GE Discovery STE PET/CT Scanner. One field-of-view was chosen centered on the largest lesion observed in a clinical whole-body FDG PET.Immediately following,a gated 9 min scan was acquired in list mode,without changing the patient’s position between any scans. Data was replayed into 3 time bins,3 min each,in order to insure equivalent noise characteristics in each replicate.Data was reconstructed into 128×128×47 square matrices.One VOI was drawn over each lesion for each patient and used to segment all 3 replicates. The mean.max and peak SUV were calculated for each VOI and replicate. First-order textural features were also calculated (skewness and kurtosis). Repeatability was calculated as the average standard deviation over the mean for the 3 repeated measurements for each lesion. Results: The average percent error in the SUV max,peak and mean were 3.4%(0– 12.9%),1.9% (0–7.5%),2.8% (0–12.2%),respectively.For skewness and kurtosis they were 10.9% and 17.8%. Conclusion: We have shown that there is a large variation in %error in SUV measures across patients. SUVpeak is the least variable and kurtosis and skewness parameters are less reliable thatn SUVs.Higher order textures are be.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Prospects for beyond the Standard Model physics searches at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment: DUNE Collaboration

Abstract The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will be a powerful tool for a variety of physics topics. The high-intensity proton beams provide a large neutrino flux, sampled by a near detector system consisting of a combination of capable precision detectors, and by the massive far detector system located deep underground. This configuration sets up DUNE as a machine for discovery, as it enables opportunities not only to perform precision neutrino measurements that may uncover deviations from the present three-flavor mixing paradigm, but also to discover new particles and unveil new interactions and symmetries beyond those predicted in the Standard Model (SM). Of the many potential beyond the Standard Model (BSM) topics DUNE will probe, this paper presents a selection of studies quantifying DUNE’s sensitivities to sterile neutrino mixing, heavy neutral leptons, non-standard interactions, CPT symmetry violation, Lorentz invariance violation, neutrino trident production, dark matter from both beam induced and cosmogenic sources, baryon number violation, and other new physics topics that complement those at high-energy colliders and significantly extend the present reach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimizing dietary rumen-degradable starch to rumen-degradable protein ratio improves lactation performance and nitrogen utilization efficiency in mid-lactating Holstein dairy cows

The dietary rumen-degradable starch (RDS) to rumen-degradable protein (RDP) ratio, denoted as the RDS-to-RDP ratio (SPR), has been proven to enhance in vitro rumen fermentation. However, the effects of dietary SPR in vivo remain largely unexplored. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of dietary SPR on lactation performance, nutrient digestibility, rumen fermentation patterns, blood indicators, and nitrogen (N) partitioning in mid-lactating Holstein cows. Seventy-two Holstein dairy cows were randomly assigned to three groups (24 head/group), balanced for (mean ± standard deviation) days in milk (116 ± 21.5), parity (2.1 ± 0.8), milk production (42 ± 2.1 kg/d), and body weight (705 ± 52.5 kg). The cows were fed diets with low (2.1, control), medium (2.3), or high (2.5) SPR, formulated to be isoenergetic, isonitrogenous, and iso-starch. The study consisted of a one-week adaptation phase followed by an eight-week experimental period. The results indicated that the high SPR group had a lower dry matter intake compared to the other groups ( p < 0.05). A quadratic increase in milk yield and feed efficiency was observed with increasing dietary SPR ( p < 0.05), peaking in the medium SPR group. The medium SPR group exhibited a lower milk somatic cell count and a higher blood total antioxidant capacity compared to other groups ( p < 0.05). With increasing dietary SPR, there was a quadratic improvement ( p < 0.05) in the total tract apparent digestibility of crude protein, ether extract, starch, neutral detergent fiber, and acid detergent fiber. Although no treatment effect was observed in rumen pH, the rumen total volatile fatty acids concentration and microbial crude protein synthesis increased quadratically ( p < 0.05) as dietary SPR increased. The molar proportion of propionate linearly increased ( p = 0.01), while branched-chain volatile fatty acids linearly decreased ( p = 0.01) with increasing dietary SPR. The low SPR group (control) exhibited higher concentration of milk urea N, rumen ammonia N, and blood urea N than other groups ( p < 0.05). Despite a linear decrease ( p < 0.05) in the proportion of urinary N to N intake, increasing dietary SPR led to a quadratic increase ( p = 0.01) in N utilization efficiency and a quadratic decrease ( p < 0.05) in the proportion of fecal N to N intake. In conclusion, optimizing dietary SPR has the potential to enhance lactation performance and N utilization efficiency. Based on our findings, a medium dietary SPR (with SPR = 2.3) is recommended for mid-lactating Holstein dairy cows. Nevertheless, further research on rumen microbial composition and metabolites is warranted to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the observed effects.

Chen, Panliang↗

Improved Magnetron Stability and Reduced Noise in Efficient Transmitters for Superconducting Accelerators

State of the art high-current superconducting accelerators require efficient RF sources with a fast dynamic phase and power control. This allows for compensation of the phase and amplitude deviations of the accelerating voltage in the Superconducting RF (SRF) cavities caused by microphonics, etc. Efficient magnetron transmitters with fast phase and power control are attractive RF sources for this application. They are more cost effective than traditional RF sources such as klystrons, IOTs and solid-state amplifiers used with large scale accelerator projects. However, unlike traditional RF sources, controlled magnetrons operate as forced oscillators. Study of the impact of the controlling signal on magnetron stability, noise and efficiency is therefore important. This paper discusses experiments with 2.45 GHz, 1 kW tubes and verifies our analytical model which is based on the charge drift approximation.

Kazakevich, G.↗

Distributed Aerodynamic Control using Active Trailing-Edge Flaps for Large Wind Turbines

This work presents a numerical framework to investigate distributed aerodynamic control devices for application in large wind turbines. Tool capabilities were extended to facilitate multiple aerodynamic polar tables. The airfoil aerodynamics characteristics were automatically determined, and blade-pitch, generator-torque, and trailing-edge-flap controllers were tuned in-the-loop according to a specific blade design. This automated workflow allows analysis and optimization of trailing-edge flaps, enabling codesign studies. Results targeted reductions of root-flap-bending moment derivatives. The applied trailing-edge-flap control reduced the standard deviation of root-flap-bending moments by more than 6% and benefit related parameters, e.g., reduce blade-tip deflections, by up to 8%. Because of varying thrust distributions along the blade span, different flap designs have nonlinear characteristics in terms of the control objective and show best performance when located at the radial position with maximum thrust. In general, larger flaps provide a greater influence to reduce the target control objective.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Effects of forest structural and compositional change on forest microclimates across a gradient of disturbance severity

Forest structural diversity and community composition are key in regulating forest microclimates. When disturbance affects structural diversity or composition, forest microclimates may be altered due to changes in soil temperature, soil water content, and light availability. It is unclear however which structural or compositional components, when changed or to what extent, result in microclimatic change. To address this question, we used data from a large scale, manipulative stem-girdling experiment in northern, lower Michigan—the Forest Resilience and Threshold Experiment (FoRTE). FoRTE follows a factorial design with multiple levels of disturbance severity (0, 45, 65, 85%) based on targeted reductions in gross leaf area index via stem-girdling induced mortality. These disturbance severity treatments are applied in two ways: either as top-down (largest trees are killed) or bottom-up (small to medium trees killed) treatments. We examined how multiple components of structural diversity and community composition changed as a product of disturbance severity and type, and then tested for resulting effects on forest microclimates (light availability, soil temperature, and soil water), using a multivariate, Random Forest framework. We found that measures of community composition (species richness, species evenness, and Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index) and stand structure (basal area, standard deviation of DBH, tree size diversity) declined more following disturbance than did measures of canopy cover, heterogeneity, arrangement, or height. However, when changes in each variable from pre- to post-disturbance, measured as log change, were employed in a multivariate, Random Forest regression framework, structural diversity measures of heterogeneity (rugosity, top rugosity), cover (canopy cover), and arrangement (porosity) were the most influential variables, but with differences among bottom-up and top-down treatments We found that the death of large trees from disturbance impacts soil temperature, water, and light environments more substantially and uniformly across disturbance gradients than does the death of smaller trees. Furthermore, our results have implications for both statistical and process-based modeling of forest disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗