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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum to classical parton evolution in the QGP

We study the time evolution of the density matrix of a high energy quark in the presence of a dense QCD background that is modeled as a stochastic Gaussian color field. At late times, we find that only the color singlet component of the quark’s reduced density matrix survives the in-medium evolution and that the density matrix becomes asymptotically diagonal in both transverse position and momentum spaces. In addition, we observe an accelerated entropy growth due to the larger phase space being explored by the quark and that the quantum and classical quark entropies converge at late times. We further observe that the quark state loses all memory of the initial condition. Combined with the fact that the reduced density matrix satisfies Boltzmann-diffusion transport, we conclude that the quark reduced density matrix can be interpreted as a classical phase space distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of switch diagnostics on the MAIZE linear transformer driver

The MAIZE Linear Transformer Driver is made of 40 capacitor-switch-capacitor `bricks' connected in parallel. When these 40 bricks are charged to 100-kV and then discharged synchronously, the MAIZE facility generates a 1-MA current pulse with a 100-ns rise time into a matched load impedance. Discharging each of the capacitors in a brick is carried out by the breakdown of a spark-gap switch, a process which results in the emission of light. Monitoring this output light with a fiber optic coupled to a photomultiplier tube (PMT) and an oscilloscope channel provides information on switch performance and timing jitter– whether a switch red early, late, or in phase with the other switches. However, monitoring each switch with a dedicated detector- oscilloscope channel can be problematic for facilities where the number of switches to be monitored (e.g., 40 on MAIZE) greatly exceeds the number of detector-oscilloscope channels available. The technique of using fibers to monitor light emission from switches can be optimized by treating a PMT as a binary digit or bit and using a combinatorial encoding scheme, where each switch is monitored by a unique combination of fiber- PMT-oscilloscope channels simultaneously. By observing the unique combination of ber-PMT-oscilloscope channels that are turned on, the pre-firing or late-firing of a single switch on MAIZE can be identified by as few as six PMT-oscilloscope channels. The number of PMT-oscilloscope channels, N , required to monitor X switches can be calculated by 2 N = X + 1, where the number '2' is selected because the PMT-oscilloscope acts as a bit. Here, we demonstrate the use of this diagnostic technique on MAIZE. In conclusion, we also present an analysis of how this technique could be scaled to monitor the tens of thousands of switches proposed for various next generation pulsed power facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-dimensional signatures of self-similarity in a high-energy-density plasma shear-driven mixing layer

A hydrodynamic shear mixing layer experiment at the National Ignition Facility had previously demonstrated Eulerian scaling of integrated, late-time quantities, including turbulent kinetic energy. In this manuscript, the experiment is repeated with new materials. In this work, using the new dataset, we demonstrate that Euler-number scalings hold not just for late time, but dynamically throughout the experiment, for measurements in all three spatial dimensions. Incorporating the dynamic scaling leads to an enhanced calculation that the heavier of the two scaled experiments has approached three generations of mergers of its primary instability's structures and a consistent observation of such a merger in action in the lighter of the two scaled experiments. Furthermore, the improved scrutiny of the time evolution of instability structures leads to sharper estimates of turbulent kinetic energy, including a demonstration of different behaviors correlating with surface roughness (quantitatively consistent with transitions between laminar and turbulent initial states), as predicted by a Reynolds-averaged turbulent model, which evidently correctly handles the differing shock-roughness interactions to drive its internal state of the model into different regimes. Altogether, a picture arises of the analytical improvements in treating these variations (of times, densities, and roughnesses) as a unified whole and of multiple ways by which deviations from the scaling could indicate an onset of non-hydrodynamic behavior. Such deviations were not expected for these experiments (which models correctly indicated would remain hydrodynamic) but could be introduced by, for example, imposing external fields or increasing drive energy to test conditions relevant to inertial confinement fusion or other high-energy-density experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalytic properties of model supported nanoparticles

Nanoparticles of late transition metals are used as catalysts and electrocatalysts for industrial chemical reactions that produce fuels, convert chemical energy to electricity and clean up pollution associated with the generation and use of these fuels. For such applications, metals are usually bonded onto the surfaces of oxide or carbon support materials. To provide the energy needed for sustained economic development, we must develop new and improved solid catalysts and electrocatalysts for a variety of reactions that take better advantage of traditional and alternate energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, etc.) and avoid serious environmental problems. Additionally, since these metals are often expensive and in limited supply (e.g., Pt), we also need to develop catalysts that do not require precious metals. As a consequence, recent years have seen a dramatic increase in research aimed at providing the basic understanding needed to develop new and improved catalysts and electrocatalysts for a variety of reactions that involve nanoparticles of late transition metals supported on oxide or carbon materials. It is therefore timely to present a special issue that focusses on Catalytic Properties of Model Supported Nanoparticles. The collection highlights some of the most exciting new directions for research in this area, and provides in depth examples of some of the most cutting-edge methods, both experimental and theoretical, for studying this class of catalysts, which provide insights into structure, mechanisms, kinetics and energetics with unprecedented accuracy and detail. Finally, as Guest Editors, we present below a few of the many excellent papers published in the collection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-code comparison of the impact of the fill tube on high yield implosions on the National Ignition Facility

Fill tubes are used to inject deuterium and tritium fuel into inertial confinement fusion capsules fielded on the National Ignition Facility. These fill tubes have been shown to have a detrimental effect on capsule performance, primarily by introducing a low-density pathway into the central fuel region that enables the jetting of ablation material into the hot spot. Due to the complexity of the highly nonlinear flow associated with the fill tube and the challenge of diagnosing the evolution of the fill tube jet late in the implosion experiments, the uncertainty in how this perturbation source evolves is great. In this work, we report on the results of a detailed code comparison performed to understand uncertainties in computational modeling of the impact of fill tubes on implosion performance. The study employed two radiation-hydrodynamics codes, HYDRA and xRAGE, which employ very different meshing strategies and hydrodynamics solvers, as well as two radiation transport methodologies, discrete ordinates and multi-group diffusion. Our results demonstrate generally good agreement between codes through most of the implosion although they indicate sensitivity to opacity averaging methods. Late in the implosion, differences arise in the distribution and amount of contaminant although these differences have a remarkably small impact on the amount of yield reduction due to the fill tube. While these results demonstrate sensitivity in fill tube modeling to algorithmic choices, the observed differences between codes are small relative to known sensitivities due to expected variations in the fill tube geometry. Finally, we have developed a methodology for performing multi-group diffusion simulations that show good agreement with the more accurate discrete ordinates method

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel, magnetically driven convergent Richtmyer–Meshkov platform

Here, we introduce a novel experimental platform for the study of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability in a cylindrically converging geometry using a magnetically driven cylindrical piston. Magnetically driven solid liner implosions are used to launch a shock into a liquid deuterium working fluid and, ultimately, into an on-axis rod with a pre-imposed perturbation. The shock front trajectory is tracked through the working fluid and up to the point of impacting the rod through the use of on axis photonic Doppler velocimetry. This configuration allows for precise characterization of the shock state as it impacts the perturbed rod interface. Monochromatic x-ray radiography is used to measure the post-shock interface evolution and rod density profile. The ALEGRA MHD model is used to simulate the dynamics of the experiment in one dimension. We show that late in time the perturbation growth becomes non-linear as evidenced by the observation of high-order harmonics, up to n = 5. Two dimensional simulations performed using a combination of the GORGON MHD code and the xRAGE radiation hydrodynamics code suggest that the late time non-linear growth is modified by convergence effects as the bubbles and spikes experience differences in the pressure of the background flow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guiding the design of oxidation-resistant Fe-based single atom alloy catalysts with insights from configurational space

The high activity and selectivity of Fe-based heterogeneous catalysts toward a variety of reactions that require the breaking of strong bonds are offset in large part by their considerable instability with respect to oxidative deactivation. While it has been shown that the stability of Fe catalysts is considerably enhanced by alloying them with precious metals (even at the single-atom limit), rational design criteria for choosing such secondary metals are still missing. Since oxidative deactivation occurs due to the strong binding of oxygen to Fe and reduction by adsorbed hydrogen mitigates the deactivation, we propose here to use the binding affinity of oxygen and hydrogen adatoms as the basis for rational design. As it would also be beneficial to use cheaper secondary metals, we have scanned over a large subset of 3d–5d mid-to late transition metal single atoms and computationally determined their effect on the oxygen and hydrogen adlayer binding as a function of chemical potential and adsorbate coverage. We further determine the underlying chemical origins that are responsible for these effects and connect them to experimentally tunable quantities. Our results reveal a reliable periodic trend wherein oxygen binding is weakened greatest as one moves right and down the periodic table. Hydrogen binding shows the same trend only at high (but relevant) coverages and otherwise tends to have its binding slightly increased in all systems. Trends with secondary metal coverage are also uncovered and connected to experimentally tunable parameters.

Hensley, Alyssa↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crystallography of Reactive Intermediates

Metal–ligand (M–L) multiply bonded complexes hold a central place in inorganic chemistry and catalysis: From fundamental and historical perspectives, these species have played a critical role in the articulation of important bonding principles (i.e. the vanadyl ion in the development of molecular orbital theory); from a practical perspective, these species are critical intermediates in a variety of chemical reactions (i.e. N 2 and O 2 reduction, H 2 O oxidation, and C–H functionalization). For many high-valent, early metal complexes, overlap of ligand-based electrons with vacant π-symmetry orbitals leads to strong M–L multiple bonds. The stability of these species enables straightforward characterization with a suite of standard spectroscopic and diffraction-based experiments. Mid- and late-transition metal complexes, with attendant higher d-electron counts, often support more reactive M–L multiply bonded fragments. The reactivity of these species simultaneously renders them attractive intermediates for catalysis but challenging synthetic targets to observe and characterize. A number of important strategies have been advanced to enable experimental characterization of mid- to late-metal–ligand multiply bonded species. Synthetic manipulation of the coordination geometry and ligand donicity, as well as introduction of sterically encumbering ligands, have each emerged as powerful methods to tame the inherent reactivity of kinetically labile M–L multiple bonds. While these efforts have resulted in families of well-characterized complexes and provided critical insights regarding structure and bonding, the synthetic derivatization required to stabilize M–L fragments of interest often obviates the substrate functionalization activity relevant to catalysis. Photochemical synthesis of reactive species provides a conceptually attractive strategy to generate reactive M–L fragments under conditions compatible with time-resolved or cryogenic steady-state characterization, and photogeneration has enabled observation of a number of reactive M–L fragments. The suite of tools available to characterize photogenerated reactive species is often more limited than typical for kinetically stabilized complexes and structural characterization is typically not possible. Recently, photocrystallographic experiments, in which reactive M–L multiply bonded intermediates are generated within single-crystal matrices, have been advanced as a strategy to interrogate the structures of reactive intermediates in C–H functionalization. Lastly, this Comment describes the historical antecedents to these experiments, highlights examples of photocrystallographic characterization of reactive intermediates, and discusses future opportunities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerating boundary analog of a Kerr black hole

An accelerated boundary correspondence (i.e. a flat spacetime accelerating mirror trajectory) is derived for the Kerr spacetime, with a general formula that ranges from the Schwarzschild limit (zero angular momentum) to the extreme maximal spin case (yielding asymptotic uniform acceleration). Here, the beta Bogoliubov coefficients reveal the particle spectrum is a Planck distribution at late times with temperature cooler than a Schwarzschild black hole, due to the 'spring constant' analog of angular momentum. The quantum stress tensor indicates a constant emission of energy flux at late times consistent with eternal thermal equilibrium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequence modeling of higher-order wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers

Higher-order gravitational wave modes from quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary-black-hole (BBH) mergers encode rich information about the nonlinear dynamics of strong-field gravity. We present a transformer-based sequence-completion surrogate that, given an early-inspiral segment, forecasts the subsequent late inspiral, merger, and ringdown. The intended applications are (i) patching or completing expensive or interrupted numerical-relativity (NR) simulations and (ii) providing late-time cross-checks and rapid hybridization studies. The training set is built from the NRHybSur3dq8 surrogate, which provides spherical-harmonic modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 (excluding (4, 0) and (4,±1), and including (5, 5)) for mass ratios q ≤ 8, dimensionless spin components s$^{z}_{1,2}$ ϵ[–0.8, 0.8], and inclination angles θ ϵ [0, π]. Waveforms are supplied on the interval t ϵ [–5000M, –100 M) and the model autoregressively generates the plus and cross polarizations (h + , h x ) on t ϵ [–100 M, 130M]. Training on the Delta supercomputer with 16 NVIDIA A100 GPUs required ~15 h on more than 14 million hybrid waveforms. Evaluation on a held-out test set of 840,000 samples yields mean and median overlaps of 0.996 and 0.997, respectively, with respect to the surrogate ground truth.

black-hole merger↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal evolution of scalar modes in Richtmyer–Meshkov instability of inclined interface using high-speed PIV and PLIF measurements at 60 kHz

Abstract The current work presents simultaneous, high-speed measurements at 60,000 fields per second of velocity and mole fraction using particle image velocimetry (PIV) and planar laser induced acetone-fluorescence in a Richtmyer–Meshkov instability of an inclined interface (Atwood number, At = 0.22). Specifically, around 2 ms of temporal evolution of the vortex structures and their associated scalar modes immediately following the interface-reshock interaction is presented. Two initial interface conditions are discussed—(a) a sharp, inclined ‘single mode’ interface and (b) a ‘multi-mode’ interface where small perturbations are imposed on the single mode case. A 2D wavelet decomposition of the scalar flow field shows a highly intermittent distribution of small-scale variance throughout the interface even at late times. These are correlated strongly with the vortex structures and local turbulence intensity, where each small-scale scalar mode is sandwiched between two co-rotating vortex structures. This indicates that the interstitial regions between the vortices are significant hotspots of entrainment, which is then dispersed by the induced, counter-flow velocity fields. The multimode case demonstrates similar organization at large scales, while the scalar field is much more homogeneous at smaller scales. These observations highlight the importance of capturing the early time vortex evolution to accurately estimate any late time intermittency, especially where deposition of intense vorticity on sharp interfaces is present.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flavor-specific interaction favors strong neutrino self-coupling in the early universe

Flavor-universal neutrino self-interaction has been shown to ease the tension between the values of the Hubble constant measured from early and late Universe data. Here, we introduce a self-interaction structure that is flavor-specific in the three active neutrino framework. This is motivated by the stringent constraints on new secret interactions among electron and muon neutrinos from several laboratory experiments. Our study indicates the presence of a strongly interaction mode which implies a late-decoupling of the neutrinos just prior to matter radiation equality. Using the degeneracy of the coupling strength with other cosmological parameters, we explain the origin of this new mode as a result of better fit to certain features in the CMB data. We find that if only one or two of the three active neutrino flavors are interacting, then the statistical significance of the strongly-interacting neutrino mode increases substantially relative to the flavor-universal scenario. However, the central value of the coupling strength for this interaction mode does not change by any appreciable amount in the flavor-specific cases. We also briefly analyze a scenario with more than three neutrino species of which only one is self-interacting. In none of the cases, we find a large enough Hubble constant that could resolve the so-called Hubble tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smallest remnants of early matter domination

The evolution of the universe prior to Big Bang Nucleosynthesis could have gone through a phase of early matter domination which enhanced the growth of small-scale dark matter structure. If this period was long enough, self-gravitating objects formed prior to reheating. Here, we study the evolution of these dense early halos through reheating. At the end of early matter domination, the early halos undergo rapid expansion and eventually eject their matter. We find that this process washes out structure on scales much larger than naively expected from the size of the original halos. We compute the density profiles of the early halo remnants and use them to construct late-time power spectra that include these non-linear effects. We evolve the resulting power spectrum to estimate the properties of microhalos that would form after matter-radiation equality. Surprisingly, cosmologies with a short period of early matter domination lead to an earlier onset of microhalo formation compared to those with a long period. In either case, dark matter structure formation begins much earlier than in the standard cosmology, with most dark matter bound in microhalos in the late universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 constraints on extended cosmological models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model, ΛCDM, and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from the Planck mission. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1. To test the dependence of our results on non-ACT data, we also explore combinations replacing Planck with WMAP and DESI with BOSS, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index dn s /d ln k = 0.0062 ± 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N eff = 2.86 ± 0.13, which combined with astrophysical measurements of primordial helium and deuterium abundances becomes N eff = 2.89 ± 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (∑m ν < 0.089 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N idr < 0.134), or for early-universe variation of fundamental constants, including the fine-structure constant (α EM /α EM,0 = 1.0043 ± 0.0017) and the electron mass (m e /m e,0 = 1.0063 ± 0.0056). Our data are consistent with standard big bang nucleosynthesis (we find Y p = 0.2312 ± 0.0092), the COBE/FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature (we find T CMB = 2.698 ± 0.016 K), a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant (w = -0.986 ± 0.025), and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity (γ = 0.663 ± 0.052). We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline ΛCDM model. In fits to models invoking early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or an arbitrary modified recombination history, we find H 0 = 69.9 +0.8 -1.5 , 69.1 ± 0.5, or 69.6 ± 1.0 km/s/Mpc, respectively; using BOSS instead of DESI BAO data reduces the central values of these constraints by 1–1.5 km/s/Mpc while only slightly increasing the error bars. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored over ΛCDM by our data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced matter power spectrum from axion kination after Big Bang nucleosynthesis

Despite stringent constraints from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations, it is still possible for well-motivated particle physics models to substantially alter the cosmic expansion history between BBN and recombination. In this work we consider two different axion models that can realize a period of first matter domination, then kination, in this epoch. We perform fits to both primordial element abundances as well as CMB data and determine that up to a decade of late axion domination is allowed by these probes of the early universe. We establish the implications of late axion domination for the matter power spectrum on the scales 1/Mpc ≲ k ≲ 10 3 /Mpc. Our 'log' model predicts a relatively modest bump-like feature together with a small suppression relative to the standard ΛCDM predictions on either side of the enhancement. Our 'two-field' model predicts a larger, plateau-like feature that realizes enhancements to the matter power spectrum of up to two orders of magnitude. These features have interesting implications for structure formation at the forefront of current detection capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗