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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

SCALE Modeling of the Sodium Cooled Fast-Spectrum Advanced Burner Test Reactor

This report documents the modeling and simulation of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) as part of a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission–sponsored project to assess the modeling and simulation capabilities for accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for advanced reactor technologies with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory code SCALE and the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) code MELCOR. Based on publicly available benchmark specifications, a fully heterogeneous 3D SCALE model of the 250 MWth Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR) was developed to demonstrate SCALE’s capabilities for full-core reactivity analysis, fuel inventory prediction, and decay heat analysis of an SFR. The benchmark specifications contain modeling details for the ABTR core at the beginning of equilibrium cycle (BOEC) at operating conditions; they were derived from a 2006 preconceptual design report produced by Argonne National Laboratory. The ABTR was designed to demonstrate reactor-based transmutation of transuranics, that is, to “burn” transuranics recovered from light-water reactor (LWR) spent fuel. The ABTR’s fuel is designed to operate in 4 month cycles using uranium/transuranic (U/TRU) metallic fuel, with a TRU content of approximately 20%, at a conversion ratio of approximately 0.6. Various reactivity calculations were performed with SCALE for the ABTR and, where possible, compared with results available in the open literature. Additionally, SCALE was used to perform a full-core depletion calculation over the 4 month cycle to obtain the nuclide inventory at the end of equilibrium cycle (EOEC). These nuclide inventories, decay heat, power profiles, and reactivity feedback coefficients at EOEC represent the initial conditions for analyzing severe accident scenarios with MELCOR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium Production in North America: A Review

This report provides a detailed literature review and preliminary life cycle inventory for producing lithium (Li) chemicals—lithium carbonate (Li 2 CO 3 ) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH)—from sedimentary clays in the North America, as was incorporated into the GREET® 2023 model release. It also updates the status and life cycle inventory of Li chemical production from low Li content brines via direct lithium extraction (DLE) from our previous work in GREET 2022. All life cycle inventory updates are based on preliminary economic assessment studies conducted by various commercial entities engaged in this industry. If produced successfully, Li chemicals from North American reserves can be significant in meeting the United States’ strategic goal of ensuring a robust and secure supply of a strategic mineral that is critical to its decarbonization initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

FY23 Drone RFID (Final Report)

The Drone RFID project successfully completed proof-of-concept testing to demonstrate the potential of a drone-based inventory system for high value remote materials at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Multiple drone platforms were procured, flight authorizations were received, and the vehicles were flown demonstrating what was initially perceived as the most difficult part of the project, successfully flying drones at the lab. Three commercial RFID inventory systems were also purchased, and ground testing performed to determine their suitability. Ultimately, one system was chosen for flight testing and successfully demonstrated the drone's ability to execute inventory with great potential for a relatively low-cost implementation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion Fuel Cycle Technology Downselection Methodology

Tritium Start-up Inventory Requirements Current consensus has full inventory coming from CANDU reactors. • Assumes continued operation through 2035, yielding ~30 kg tritium. • Produced in the form of DTO, which requires separation for tritium extraction. • ITER will take between 10-20 kg. • DEMO will require ~15 kg. • Fuel cycle design requires minimum volume to fill plumbing in system beyond inventory necessary to reach break even. • With ~45 current private ventures, need massive uptick in tritium production to meet global need.

Malone, Collin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancements in Multiphysics Microdepletion Analysis of an eVinci TM -like Microreactor Leveraging OpenMC-CRAB Workflow

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) are a class of nuclear reactor technology, characterized by reduced dimensions, modular design, and reduced power output in contrast to conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). MRs are proposed for supplying electricity and eventual process heat to remote locations, such as military installations and disaster-affected areas. Current research work sponsored by the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program (MRP) is devoted to the development of novel modeling and simulation tools to better support MR vendors and regulatory bodies. Notably, the NRC is projected to utilize the CRAB multiphysics software driver for executing both design and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. Furthermore, the NRC has been utilizing the MELCOR code to calculate mechanistic source terms during accidents. Since MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power profiles under accident conditions, which theoretically can be derived from CRAB, the goal is to establish a comprehensive CRAB-MELCOR computational framework. Past work was focused on testing and demonstrating CRAB's capability to generate results that can be used to inform mechanistic source term calculations in MELCOR. In particular, a computational workflow leveraging OpenMC-generated microscopic cross sections and CRAB was first applied to perform multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation followed by an accident scenario for a stylized microreactor problem. In fiscal year 2024, the research work has been focused on applying the OpenMC-CRAB workflow, which was first tested in fiscal year 2023, to a realistic 3D heat-pipe cooled MR problem representative of the eVinci TM design. The latter computational problem was developed with inputs from WEC to conserve selected neutronic and thermal characteristics of the eVinci TM design without releasing proprietary data. The results of this simulation, encompassing isotopic inventory, power density distribution, and kinetic parameters, will inform both MELCOR and the WEC-developed FATE code for mechanistic source terms calculations. The results from the two codes will then be compared for code verification purposes. This report contains the design characteristics of the realist heat pipe cooled microreactor developed as a use-case for the verification exercise, and the current results for the multiphysics microscopic depletion performed with the OpenMC-CRAB workflow. The results include eigenvalue as a function of time, power distribution at EOL, in addition to nuclides inventory's time evolution and spatial distribution. Finally, we report improvements to the workflow efficiency achieved through a collaboration with the NEAMS programs. Through this collaborative effort, we were able to strongly decrease the computational time for the multiphysics microdepletion calculation (i.e., from 17.4 hours to 5.7 hours on 280 processors) in addition to simplifying the interface to generate isotopics spatial distribution utilizable by FATE and MELCOR. Future work, including the improvement of the current microscopic cross-sections' library and the simulation of an accident scenario at EOL, is also discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Savannah River National Laboratory – General Fusion 2023 INFUSE Report (Rev.1)

This report describes the results from an INFUSE research project, where Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in collaboration with General Fusion (GF) used process modeling to understand and optimize commercial power plant (CPP) fuel cycle designs based on parameters provided by GF. The study primarily focused on two candidate fuel cycles with different blanket materials, one with a lead lithium eutectic (LLE) blanket and the other with a pure lithium (Li) blanket. LLE benefits from a low melting point, favorable neutronics, and lower reactivity, but liquid lithium has the potential for higher tritium breeding ratios (TBR) and does not poison the plasma as a high Z contaminant. It was found that the main differences between LLE and Li designs are the extraction technologies required to remove tritium from the blanket and the amount of tritium and its distribution within the facility. More than 80% of the in-process tritium inventory for the LLE design is contained in the isotope separation system, while for the Li design, over 60% of the in-process tritium inventory is contained within the blanket material. This is due to significant tritium retention by Li. For the Li blanket, the burden of tritium processing rests on the blanket extraction technology rather than the traditional exhaust processing route. Thus, the blanket extraction technology is a main driver of tritium inventory in the Li system and determines the subsequent interface with the tritium processing plant.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive PIE and Safety Testing of Six AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 Compacts

This study evaluates fission product retention and particle failure mechanisms in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel under high-temperature gas reactor accident-relevant conditions using high-temperature safety tests and destructive postirradiation examination. Three Capsule 2 compacts were held isothermally at 1600°C for approximately 300 hours and one compact at 1800°C for approximately 300 hours; two additional compacts were examined in the as-irradiated state. Post-test deconsolidation–leach–burn–leach (DLBL) quantified nuclide inventories in matrix and particles. Individual particles were surveyed for radioisotope inventories, and microanalytical approaches resolved microstructural evolution and fission product distributions within the coating layers. At 1600°C, no krypton was detected above the minimum detectable limit, and cesium releases were far below a single particle equivalent, indicating the absence of full TRISO failure or SiC failures. Silver releases were limited and primarily reflected depleted postirradiation inventories, consistent with prior compact-level exams indicating substantial in-pile 110mAg loss. At 1800°C, cumulative 134Cs release of approximately 2.5 particle equivalents and delayed 85Kr totaling approximately 0.53 particle equivalents were consistent with one full TRISO failure and two SiC failures. Europium and strontium releases were roughly one order of magnitude higher than at 1600°C and comparable to AGR-1/AGR-2 high-temperature tests, with sustained late-hold rates indicating diffusion through intact coatings coupled with matrix depletion. Overall, AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 UCO fuel demonstrated fission product retention during safety testing consistent with prior AGR campaigns, while distinctive in-pile 110mAg depletion and measurable 1600°C europium loss motivate targeted follow-on studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive PIE and Safety Testing of Six AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 Compacts

This study evaluates fission product retention and particle failure mechanisms in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel under high-temperature gas reactor accident-relevant conditions using high-temperature safety tests and destructive post-irradiation examination. Three Capsule 2 compacts were held isothermally at 1600°C for approximately 300 hours and one compact at 1800°C for approximately 300 hours; two additional compacts were examined in the as-irradiated state. Post-test deconsolidation–leach–burn–leach (DLBL) quantified nuclide inventories in matrix and particles. Individual particles were surveyed for radioisotope inventories, and microanalytical approaches resolved microstructural evolution and fission product distributions within the coating layers. At 1600°C, no krypton was detected above the minimum detectable limit, and cesium releases were far below a single particle equivalent, indicating the absence of full TRISO failure or SiC failures. Silver releases were limited and primarily reflected depleted post-irradiation inventories, consistent with prior compact-level exams indicating substantial in-pile 110m Ag loss. At 1800°C, cumulative 134 Cs release of approximately 2.5 particle equivalents and delayed 85 Kr totaling approximately 0.53 particle equivalents were consistent with one full TRISO failure and two SiC failures. Europium and strontium releases were roughly one order of magnitude higher than at 1600°C and comparable to AGR-1/AGR-2 high-temperature tests, with sustained late-hold rates indicating diffusion through intact coatings coupled with matrix depletion. Overall, AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 UCO fuel demonstrated fission product retention during safety testing consistent with prior AGR campaigns, while distinctive in-pile 110m Ag depletion and measurable 1600°C europium loss motivate targeted follow-on studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation Experiment Fission Product Mass Balance

This report presents the fission product mass balance for the AGR-5/6/7 TRISO fuel irradiation experiment. The fission product inventories deposited on capsule components outside of the fuel (e.g., stainless-steel shells, graphite holders, Grafoil disks, and associated hardware) were quantified as part of the post-irradiation examination (PIE) to assess the performance of this fuel. Comparisons were made between these inventories and depletion calculations, non-destructive measurements of fuel fission product inventories in the intact fuel compacts, prior AGR experiments, and results from among each of the five distinct AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The data served as estimates of the condensable fission products released from the fuel during irradiation. Excluding Capsule 1 (which experienced accidental damage during irradiation) and Capsule 3 (which was tested at very high irradiation temperatures of >1300°C), the results indicate that the AGR-5/6/7 fuel performed comparably to fuel from earlier AGR experiments. The mass balance results were also used to estimate the number of particles with in-pile SiC failures. Subject to the assumptions made in these estimates, and excluding Capsules 1 and 3, the in-pile SiC failure rates for AGR-5/6/7 are comparable to those observed in AGR-2.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimation of Fission Product Transport Parameters for Cesium in the AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Experiment

A one-dimensional (1D) finite-element model of fission product transport in the AGR-3/4 experiment has been developed using the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework and implemented in the fuel performance code, BISON. The model resolves capsule-specific geometries, materials, and temperature histories and simulates radial migration of fission products from the fuel compact through the inner ring, outer ring, and into the sink ring. Model parameters governing diffusion and sorption were estimated for key fission products – cesium (Cs), and europium (Eu) – by simultaneously fitting modeled isotopic concentration profiles and total ring inventories to a post-irradiation experimental measurement. These data include gamma scanning, liquid scintillation for Sr-90, radial deconsolidation leach-burn-leach analysis, tomographic reconstructions, and destructive physical sampling. A mortar-based interfacial sorption framework was implemented to enforce physically consistent mass transfer and flux conservation across gas gaps. Two classes of parameter sets were derived: a least-squares best-fit, and a safety-oriented conservative-fit, what applies strong penalties for underprediction of sink inventories. Across all twelve capsules, the model successfully reproduces the dominant radial transport trends for Cs, Sr, with decreasing concentrations from the compact outward through successive rings. Cs behavior is captured most consistently, while strontium predictions reveal systematic trade-offs between compact accuracy and conservative sink-ring bounding. The results demonstrate that sink ring weighted calibration provides conservative, safety relevant bounds on low temperature fission product transport, but at the cost of underpredicting compact inventories for Sr isotopes. These discrepancies highlight the need for additional physics, including fast-slow diffusion model, incorporating trapping mechanism in the transport behavior. Overall, this work establishes a robust, capsule-specific modeling framework for AGR-3/4 fission product transport and provides a defensible basis for parameter selection in source-term and fuel performance analyses for high temperature gas-cooled reactors.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Sediment Management and Monitoring Database

Overview This dataset compiles dam sediment management and monitoring information from surveys, case studies, and journal articles. Additionally, features described by the National Inventory of Dams (i.e., presence of sluice gates) are included to indicate known infrastructure features that may address sediment releases. The location and description of records from downstream monitoring gages are catalogued in order to help with tracking conditions over time (e.g., before and after management actions, as operations change, etc.). The data help address national scale understanding of challenges and solutions related to the accumulation of sediment behind a dam as well as downstream passage. Sediment trapping causes problems as it reduces storage capacity, disrupts dam and reservoir function, impedes access for recreation, alters water quality/habitat conditions, and contributes to riverbank and coastal erosion within the reservoir. Data compilation from a variety of sources is a first step towards assessing system-wide efficacy of management solutions. This dataset was developed under the Water Power Technologies Office funded effort which began as a Seedling on Reservoir Sedimentation Data, and was supported by the Reservoir Sedimentation Modeling Framework and Data Analysis project. These projects have addressed challenges in describing sediment transport, trapping, and management at dams throughout the US. Methodology An outer join on dams/reservoirs with surveys and survey reports (documented in the RESSED database, USBR or USACE databases, project websites, etc.) with the National Inventory of Dams, based on the NIDID to determine dams with documented management and/or sluice gates. Additional dams with documented management activity were identified through review of technical articles from the past 25 years in Journal of Hydrology, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Geomorphology, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Water, Journal of Cleaner Production, International Journal of Sediment Research, Nature Scientific Reports, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, and Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Individual records were created for each survey or management activity documented. To evaluate downstream sediment monitoring records, the nhdPlusTools and dataRetrieval packages in R were used to find gages within 10km of each dam in the management database. Length of record and location of matched gages were retrieved for those parameters relevant to sediment concentration or total sediment discharge.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗
DOE OSTI2023

The circular nutrient economy of terrestrial ecosystems and the consequences for rock weathering

Earth’s biosphere is thought to exert a substantial influence on regolith evolution and chemical weathering rates. However, ecosystems are also highly efficient at retaining and recycling nutrients. Thus, when the ecological demand for rock-derived nutrients (e.g., P, Ca, K) exceeds the rates of regolith supply, ecological retention and recycling strategies can minimize nutrient limitations. To evaluate the balance between nutrient recycling and new nutrient input, we combined a plant model that drives growth according to foliar P levels with a weathering model that includes regolith rejuvenation via erosion and export via chemical weathering according to water flow, regolith thickness, mineral dissolution rates, secondary minerals, and nutrient storage in organic and mineral phases. We find that plant growth is strongly dependent on the total regolith nutrient inventory, resulting in a strong correlation between plant productivity and erosion. Increased water export or decreased regolith thickness diminish the total inventory of nutrient corresponding to lower rates of recycling and lower plant growth. In contrast, purported biogenic drivers of weathering, such as enhanced mineral dissolution, only support higher growth rates at high erosion rates. At erosion rates typical of the global land surface, more rapid mineral dissolution combined with enhanced formation of secondary minerals, depletes the inventory of mineral P, resulting in no benefit for plant growth. We also find that the increased chemical weathering export does not scale directly with plant growth. For example, accelerated mineral weathering does increase chemical weathering export but not potential plant growth. Conversely, thicker regolith is associated with a small increase in weathering export, but a large increase in potential plant growth. Collectively, when plant growth is coupled to regolith weathering our calculations suggest that plant productivity is not directly correlated with silicate weathering fluxes, and that biotic drivers of silicate weathering may only be effective at high erosion rates not typical at the Earth’s surface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-resolution mapping of nitrogen oxide emissions in large US cities from TROPOMI retrievals of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide columns

Satellite-derived spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions can improve accuracy of emission inventories to better support air quality and climate research and policy studies. In this study, we develop a new method by coupling the chemical transport Model-Independent SATellite-derived Emission estimation Algorithm for Mixed-sources (MISATEAM) with a divergence method to map high-resolution NO x emissions across US cities using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) retrievals. The accuracy of the coupled method is validated through application to synthetic NO 2 observations from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for 33 large and mid-size US cities. Validation reveals excellent agreement between inferred and NU-WRF-provided emission magnitudes (R= 0.99, normalized mean bias, NMB = —0.01) and a consistent spatial pattern when comparing emissions for individual grid cells (R = 0.88 ± 0.06). We then develop a TROPOMI-based database reporting annual emissions for 39 US cities at a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° from 2018 to 2021. This database demonstrates a strong correlation (R= 0.90) with the National Emission Inventory (NEI) but reveals some bias (NMB = —0.24). There are noticeable differences in the spatial patterns of emissions in some cities. Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in TROPOMI-based emissions and potential misallocation of emissions and/or missing sources in bottom-up emission inventories both contribute to these differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global anthropogenic emissions (CAMS-GLOB-ANT) for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service simulations of air quality forecasts and reanalyses

Anthropogenic emissions are the result of many different economic sectors, including transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities, waste treatment and agricultural practices. Air quality models are used to forecast the atmospheric composition, analyze observations and reconstruct the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the previous decades. In order to drive these models, gridded emissions of all compounds need to be provided. This paper describes a new global inventory of emissions called CAMS-GLOB-ANT, developed as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS; https://doi.org/10.24380/eets-qd81, Soulie et al., 2023). The inventory provides monthly averages of the global emissions of 36 compounds, including the main air pollutants and greenhouse gases, at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° in latitude and longitude, for 17 emission sectors. The methodology to generate the emissions for the 2000–2023 period is explained, and the datasets are analyzed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions. Depending on the species and regions, good agreements as well as significant differences are highlighted, which can be further explained through an analysis of different sectors as shown in the figures in the Supplement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Abstract. Volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) from fertilizers and livestock wastes forms a significant pathway of nitrogen losses in agricultural ecosystems and constitutes the largest source of atmospheric emissions of NH 3 . This paper describes a major update to the process model FAN (Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen), which evaluates NH 3 emissions interactively within an Earth system model; in this work, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used. The updated version (FANv2) includes a more detailed treatment of both physical and agricultural processes, which allows the model to differentiate between the volatilization losses from animal housings, manure storage, grazed pastures, and the application of manure and different types of mineral fertilizers. The modeled ammonia emissions are first evaluated at a local scale against experimental data for various types of fertilizers and manure, and they are subsequently run globally to evaluate NH3 emissions for 2010–2015 based on gridded datasets of fertilizer use and livestock populations. Comparison of regional emissions shows that FANv2 agrees with previous inventories for North America and Europe and is within the range of previous inventories for China. However, due to higher NH 3 emissions in Africa, India, and Latin America, the global emissions simulated by FANv2 (48 Tg N) are 30 %–40 % higher than in the existing inventories.

Vira, Julius↗