Analysis of Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) Data Using Artificial Intelligence Tech
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Terry, Jeff↗
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Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications
Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.
Oncology↗
Rapid Construction of Validated Chemistry Models for Advanced Biofuels (Co-Optima Final Report)
Computer methods were developed and demonstrated that make it possible to predict the combustion and pyrolysis chemistry of proposed biofuels, even before the biofuels are ever manufactured or experimentally tested. The methods are based on first-principles calculations of reaction rates and equilibria. A large number of complicated calculations are required, so we developed a computer workflow that automates many of the steps. With the chemical structure of the biofuel and the system conditions (temperature, pressure, compositions, etc.) as the input, the computer methods can construct a detailed kinetic model with refined parameters without intense human intervention. The automation of model construction makes it practical for a single engineer to make the predictions in a reasonable time period. The accuracy of the computer predictions was tested by measuring the time-profiles of various reaction intermediates (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, water, formaldehyde, methane, and ethylene) formed as the biofuels pyrolyze or ignite using sophisticated laser shock tube methods. Several biofuels, including methyl propyl ether, cyclopentanone, butyl acetate isomers, etc., were carefully studied to demonstrate the validity of the proposed computational and experimental methodology. This research project opens up the possibility for assessing some proposed biofuels on the computer without expensive experimental campaigns. The new computer methods are open source and well-documented, allowing a knowledgeable modeler to easily access the developed methods and implement them in their work routine. Moreover, they are also convenient and powerful, promising for developing the fuel chemistry models needed for use in engine simulators, facilitating co-optimization of new engine designs with new fuels.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Moore Machine Motion Controls Refurbishment Statement of Work and Specification
Diamond Turning Machines known as “Moore” machines are used in the production of Potassium diHydrogen Phosphate (KDP) optics required for the National Ignition Facility (NIF). These machines are owned by the Department of Energy, as provided by Lawrence Livermore National Security LLC (LLNS). Moore Machines 1 and 2 are located at the Gooch & Housego (G&H) facility in Highland Heights, OH. The existing Aerotech motion controllers, motor drivers/amplifiers, input/output (I/O) hardware, control computer, software user interface, human machine interface (HMI), cabling, and encoders are beyond service life and require replacement. This Statement of Work (SoW) defines the motion control system refurbishment requirements for the Moore diamond turning machines designated Moore 1 and Moore 2. The motion controls system design shall include a motion control computer, control software, motor drive amplifiers and controllers, linear scale encoders, rotary encoders, HMI, power distribution, emergency stop (E-Stop) and interlocks, cabling, switches, solenoids, transducers, sensors, actuators, ancillary system interfaces, and related components necessary for a complete machine tool control system. The Subcontractor shall include effort to standardize systems between the two machines if reasonably possible.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Chemical controls on the propagation and healing of subcritical fractures
Human activities involving subsurface reservoirs—resource extraction, carbon and nuclear waste storage—alter thermal, mechanical, and chemical steady-state conditions in these systems. Because these systems exist at lithostatic pressures, even minor chemical changes can cause chemically assisted deformation. Therefore, understanding how chemical effects control geomechanical properties is critical to optimizing engineering activities. The grand challenge in predicting the effect of chemical processes on mechanical properties lays in the fact that these phenomena take place at molecular scales, while they manifest all the way to reservoir scales. To address this fundamental challenge, we investigated chemical effects on deformation in model and real systems spanning molecular- to centimeter scales. We used theory, experiment, molecular dynamics simulation, and statistical analysis to (1) identify the effect of simple reactions, such as hydrolysis, on molecular structures in interfacial regions of stressed geomaterials; (2) quantify chemical effects on the bulk mechanical properties, fracture and displacement for granular rocks and single crystals; (3) develop initial understanding of universal scaling for individual displacement events in layered geomaterials; and (4) develop analytic approximations for the single-chain mechanical response utilizing asymptotically correct statistical thermodynamic theory. Taken together, these findings advance the challenging field of chemo-mechanics.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Beneficial Use of Harvested Ponded Fly Ash and Landfilled FGD Materials for High-Volume Surface Mine Reclamation
The overall motivation of this project was to demonstrate at laboratory, bench-scale, and full-scale demonstration levels that (a) coal ash surface impoundments can go through closure by removal as per USEPA and state regulations so that the material can be used as is (other than draining free water using CCRs piles) in high-volume beneficial applications, (b) FGD material from closed out FGD facilities can be excavated and recompacted for coal mine reclamation, and (c) harvested CCRs can be beneficially utilized (providing a net environmental gain) in large-volumes for reclamation at abandoned coal mine sites across the US, especially in the Eastern and Midwest coal mining regions. The objectives of this project were to: 1) promote the safe and cost-effective closure by removal of coal ash impoundments, 2) harvest landfilled FGD, and 3) promote the high-volume beneficial use of these harvested CCRs in the reclamation of abandoned surface coal mine sites across the eastern and midwestern coal mining regions of the United States. The major tasks carried out for this project are summarized below: 1) Conesville Full-Scale Demonstration Project: About 2 million tons of harvested CCR materials from the closure by removal of an inactive fly ash pond and an adjacent old FGD landfill were used for the full-scale demonstration project to fully reclaim a nearby partially completed abandoned surface coal mine. Site monitoring for the project duration was carried out and results are discussed. 2) Laboratory Testing: Geotechnical and environmental testing of harvested ponded fly ash and landfilled FGD material at the former Conesville power plant were carried out. Completing the laboratory testing allowed for QA/QC for the full-scale site construction and informed the formulation of the risk analysis. 3) Risk Analysis: We developed a reliable computational model for fate and transport. We used these models and the rich set of monitored data for the Conesville site to analyze risks to human health and ecological risks associated with high-volume surface mine reclamation using harvested CCRs. 4) GIS Siting Study: A Geographic Information System (GIS) study was carried out for three states in the Eastern coal mining region and two states in the Midwest coal region. This effort provided site specific GIS information for five states and allowed us to establish protocols that other states can follow in implementing their own state specific GIS study.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations
The future of the grid will be powered by AI—or undermined by it. Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping grid operations, improving fault detection, forecasting accuracy, and real-time optimization. As AI systems move closer to operational decision loops, however, they introduce new consequence pathways: expanded attack surfaces, model integrity risks, regulatory exposure, and human-automation challenges. This talk presents a consequence-driven framework for deploying AI responsibly in the electric grid. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen resilience, boost reliability, and deploy AI securely — ensuring the grid of the future is not only smarter but safer.
25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
"Safety First: Though on the Other Hand, Time is Critical”
This talk describes the deployment of research-quality software and hardware for open-road driving experiments by fleets of vehicles. Technological advancements in single-vehicle autonomy have expanded beyond the academic community, and are driven largely by industry stakeholders and manufacturers. However, as the penetration rate of cars with advanced driver assistance features increases, the impact on emergent behavior in traffic is still unknown. Compelling reasons to experiment within open-road conditions must be considered alongside the technical and human factor safety issues in deploying experimental controllers. This is even more challenging when it is necessary to deploy experimental fleets at scale. The talk will describe approaches for co-design of a research testbed for societal-scale systems. Discussion is devoted to the research-quality data gathering and control layers and their technical implementation, the different interfaces for experts in other fields to use these testbeds for research without violating safety requirements, and process and management considerations when deploying the platforms at scale when considering training time and operation complexity of human operators.
Sprinkle, Jonathan↗
The JmjC-domain protein NO66/RIOX-1 affects the balance between proliferation and maturation in acute myeloid leukemia
Highlights: • NO66/RIOX1 is not expressed in the AML cell line KG1a regarded as a “stem cell-like” model system. • NO66/RIOX1 is not expressed in primary HSC-enriched CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} cells of healthy donors. • Ectopic expression of NO66/RIOX1 in KG1a cells inhibits proliferation and rDNA transcription. • NO66/RIOX1 impacts on the transition from stem cells to progenitors by regulation of gene expression. As epigenetic regulators are frequently dysregulated in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) we determined expression levels of the JmjC-protein NO66 in AML cell lines and sub fractions of healthy human hematopoietic cells. NO66 is absent in the AML cell lines KG1/KG1a which consist of cells with the immature CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} phenotype and is regarded as a “stem cell-like” model system. Similarly, NO66 is not detectable in CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup -} cells purified from healthy donors but is clearly expressed in the more committed CD34{sup +}/CD38{sup +} cell population. Loss of NO66 expression in KG1/KG1a cells is due to hyper-methylation of its promoter and is released by DNA-methyltransferase inhibitors. In KG1a cells stably expressing exogenous wild type (KG1a66wt) or enzymatically inactive mutant (KG1a66mut) NO66, respectively, the wild type protein inhibited proliferation and rDNA transcription. Gene expression profiling revealed that the expression of NO66 induces a transcriptional program enriched for genes with roles in proliferation and maturation (e.g.EPDR1, FCER1A, CD247, MYCN, SNORD13). Genes important for the maintenance of stem cell properties are downregulated (e.g. SIRPA, Lin28B, JAML). Our results indicate that NO66 induces lineage commitment towards myeloid progenitor cell fate and suggest that NO66 contributes to loss of stem cell properties.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Ebola Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog
Ebola virus (EBOV) is high risk biological agent, classified as a Category A priority pathogen (Flaviviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), known to cause hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Ebola virus [NCBITAXON:186536] (Zaire/Makona or Zaire/Mayinga) experimental infection study. Human host samples types include peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from blood plasma ["PBMC", BTO:0001025], human hepatoma carcinoma cells ["HUH", BTO:0001950], human umbilical vein endothelial cells ["HUVEC", BTO:0001949], immortalized human hepatocyte cells ["IHH", BTO:0006147], and human histiocytic lymphoma cells ["U937", BTO:0001412].
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA’s first ground-based Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulator: Enabling a new era in space radiobiology research
With exciting new NASA plans for a sustainable return to the moon, astronauts will once again leave Earth’s protective magnetosphere only to endure higher levels of radiation from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and the possibility of a large solar particle event (SPE). Gateway, lunar landers, and surface habitats will be designed to protect crew against SPEs with vehicle optimization, storm shelter concepts, and/or active dosimetry; however, the ever penetrating GCR will continue to pose the most significant health risks especially as lunar missions increase in duration and as NASA sets its aspirations on Mars. The primary risks of concern include carcinogenesis, central nervous system (CNS) effects resulting in potential in-mission cognitive or behavioral impairment and/or late neurological disorders, degenerative tissue effects including circulatory and heart disease, as well as potential immune system decrements impacting multiple aspects of crew health. Characterization and mitigation of these risks requires a significant reduction in the large biological uncertainties of chronic (low-dose rate) heavy-ion exposures and the validation of countermeasures in a relevant space environment. Historically, most research on understanding space radiation-induced health risks has been performed using acute exposures of monoenergetic single-ion beams. However, the space radiation environment consists of a wide variety of ion species over a broad energy range. Using the fast beam switching and controls systems technology recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory, a new era in radiobiological research is possible. NASA has developed the “GCR Simulator” to generate a spectrum of ion beams that approximates the primary and secondary GCR field experienced at human organ locations within a deep-space vehicle. The majority of the dose is delivered from protons (approximately 65%–75%) and helium ions (approximately 10%–20%) with heavier ions (Z ≥ 3) contributing the remainder. The GCR simulator exposes state-of-the art cellular and animal model systems to 33 sequential beams including 4 proton energies plus degrader, 4 helium energies plus degrader, and the 5 heavy ions of C, O, Si, Ti, and Fe. A polyethylene degrader system is used with the 100 MeV/n H and He beams to provide a nearly continuous distribution of low-energy particles. A 500 mGy exposure, delivering doses from each of the 33 beams, requires approximately 75 minutes. To more closely simulate the low-dose rates found in space, sequential field exposures can be divided into daily fractions over 2 to 6 weeks, with individual beam fractions as low as 0.1 to 0.2 mGy. In the large beam configuration (60 × 60 cm 2 ), 54 special housing cages can accommodate 2 to 3 mice each for an approximately 75 min duration or 15 individually housed rats. On June 15, 2018, the NSRL made a significant achievement by completing the first operational run using the new GCR simulator. This paper discusses NASA’s innovative technology solution for a ground-based GCR simulator at the NSRL to accelerate our understanding and mitigation of health risks faced by astronauts. Ultimately, the GCR simulator will require validation across multiple radiogenic risks, endpoints, doses, and dose rates.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Influenza A Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog
Influenza A virus (IAV) is a high risk biological agent, classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Orthomyxoviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Influenza A virus [NCBITAXON:11320] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750] and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to MERS-CoV Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Coronaviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific MERS-CoV [NCBITAXON:1335626] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750], human bronchial epithelial cells ["Calu-3 clone 2B4"; BTO:0002022], primary human fibroblasts ["FB"; BTO:0000452], primary human airway epithelial cells ["HAE"; BTO:0005571], human microvascular endothelial cells ["HMVE"; BTO:0003123], and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Population Genomic Analyses Reveal Connectivity via Human-Mediated Transport across Populus Plantations in North America and an Undescribed Subpopulation of Sphaerulina musiva
Domestication of plant species has affected the evolutionary dynamics of plant pathogens in agriculture and forestry. A model system for studying the consequences of plant domestication on the evolution of an emergent plant disease is the fungal pathogen Sphaerulina musiva. This ascomycete causes leaf spot and stem canker disease of Populus spp. and their hybrids. A population genomics approach was used to determine the degree of population structure and evidence for selection on the North American population of S. musiva. In total, 122 samples of the fungus were genotyped identifying 120,016 single-nucleotide polymorphisms after quality filtering. In North America, S. musiva has low to moderate degrees of differentiation among locations. Three main genetic clusters were detected: southeastern United States, midwestern United States and Canada, and a new British Columbia cluster (BC2). Population genomics suggest that BC2 is a novel genetic cluster from central British Columbia, clearly differentiated from previously reported S. musiva from coastal British Columbia, and the product of a single migration event. Phenotypic measurements from greenhouse experiments indicate lower aggressiveness of BC2 on Populus trichocarpa. In summary, S. musiva has geographic structure across broad regions indicative of gene flow among clusters. The interconnectedness of the North American S. musiva populations across large geographic distances further supports the hypothesis of anthropogenic-facilitated transport of the pathogen.
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
SMART Mobility. Urban Science Capstone Report
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The Urban Science (US) Pillar focuses on maximum-mobility and minimum-energy opportunities associated with emerging transportation and transportation-related technologies specifically within the urban context. Such technologies, often referred to as automated, connected, efficient (or electrified), and shared (ACES), have the potential to greatly improve mobility and related quality of life in urban areas. Although all the SMART Mobility research pillars share some commonalities, Urban Science strives to model, analyze, and gain insights from the perspective of human settlements (the “city”) as a living organism. This is especially critical as the United States is one of the most urbanized countries, and as more and more of the global population migrates to urban areas.1 The urban mobility system consists of a complex network that reaches well beyond roads and vehicles and includes significant investments in public transit, private mobility services (such as taxis and transportation network companies, or TNCs), significant parking reserves, and curb management practices, not to mention the abundance of emerging on-demand micromobility services for the movement of people and goods such as e-bikes and scooters, which make the urban space a dynamic laboratory for mobility. Urban spaces also concentrate employment, markets, services, and attractions, which are the destinations for most trips. The concentration of human activities and ensuing density also creates the need and emphasis for space efficiency in urban environments, which is often less of a constraint in suburban or rural contexts. This mixture of transportation and mobility infrastructure and practice, combined with global urbanization trends, make urban spaces a critical focus of research for developing energy-efficient mobility systems (EEMS).
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Development of a compact fast-neutron spectrometer for nuclear emergency response applications
We have developed a Compact Fast Neutron Spectrometer (CFNS) for passive assay of special nuclear material (SNM) through the observation of fast neutrons. The CFNS consists of eight organic glass scintillators (OGS) coupled to silicon photomultipliers and a waveform digitizer, which are integrated within a human-portable box. The CFNS determines the neutron energy profile by spectrum unfolding using the Maximum-Likelihood Expectation Maximization method. The detector acquisition system was optimized to have a dynamic range of up to 10 MeV neutron energy. Bulk special nuclear material (SNM) measurements from the National Criticality Experiments Research Center were analyzed for SNM validation/examination. Additionally, the results show that the CFNS can be used to distinguish between fission and (α, n) neutron emitters, regardless of intervening material type (Cu and polyethylene) and thickness, by taking the ratio of neutron counts at different regions in the unfolded energy spectrum. Additionally, by fitting an exponential curve to the unfolded energy spectrum of PuO 2 and Pu neutron emitters, the CFNS showed the ability of distinguishing between pure Pu oxide, pure Pu metal and mixed oxide-metal configurations.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
The evolution of the GAL actose utilization pathway in budding yeasts
The Leloir galactose utilization or GAL pathway of budding yeasts, including that of the baker’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and the opportunistic human pathogen Candida albicans, breaks down the sugar galactose for energy and biomass production. Here, the GAL pathway has long served as a model system for understanding how eukaryotic metabolic pathways, including their modes of regulation, evolve. More recently, the physical linkage of the structural genes GAL1, GAL7, and GAL10 in diverse budding yeast genomes has been used as a model for understanding the evolution of gene clustering. In this review, we summarize exciting recent work on three different aspects of this iconic pathway’s evolution: gene cluster organization, GAL gene regulation, and the population genetics of the GAL pathway.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300
The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗