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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
DOE OSTI2011

HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE PHOTOMETRY OF GLOBULAR CLUSTERS IN M81

We perform aperture photometry and profile fitting on 419 globular cluster (GC) candidates with m{sub V} {<=} 23 mag identified in Hubble Space Telescope/Advanced Camera for Surveys BVI imaging, and estimate the effective radii of the clusters. We identify 85 previously known spectroscopically confirmed clusters, and newly identify 136 objects as good cluster candidates within the 3{sigma} color and size ranges defined by the spectroscopically confirmed clusters, yielding a total of 221 probable GCs. The luminosity function peak for the 221 probable GCs with estimated total dereddening applied is V {approx} (20.26 {+-} 0.13) mag, corresponding to a distance of {approx}3.7 {+-} 0.3 Mpc. The blue and red GC candidates, and the metal-rich and metal-poor spectroscopically confirmed clusters, respectively, are similar in half-light radius. Red confirmed clusters are about 6% larger in median half-light radius than blue confirmed clusters, and red and blue good GC candidates are nearly identical in half-light radius. The total population of confirmed and 'good' candidates shows an increase in half-light radius as a function of galactocentric distance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Effective Mass Estimations in Pu-Metal Annuli

Determining the effective mass of 240 Pu in a plutonium metal item can be achieved through a number of destructive and non-destructive assay techniques. However, these techniques have one or more shortcomings. These include the need for large quantities of plutonium, long measurement time, or lack of sufficient accuracy. While efforts have been made to mitigate these issues by estimating 240 Pu quantities through neutron coincidence counting techniques, these estimates are subject to systematic bias, and their estimates are not well characterized when other factors of the annulus’ physical form and composition are accounted for. In this work, we expand upon these non-destructive assay techniques via the implementation of random forest machine learning models, which produce correction functions that augment and improve the effective mass estimates derived from classical leakage multiplication, singles, doubles, and triples multiplicity counting equations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

K+A GALAXIES AS THE AFTERMATH OF GAS-RICH MERGERS: SIMULATING THE EVOLUTION OF GALAXIES AS SEEN BY SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEYS

Models of poststarburst (or 'K+A') galaxies are constructed by combining fully three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy mergers with radiative transfer calculations of dust attenuation. Spectral line catalogs are generated automatically from moderate-resolution optical spectra calculated as a function of merger progress in each of a large suite of simulations. The mass, gas fraction, orbital parameters, and mass ratio of the merging galaxies are varied systematically, showing that the lifetime and properties of the K+A phase are strong functions of the merger scenario. K+A durations are generally {approx}<0.1-0.3 Gyr, significantly shorter than the commonly assumed 1 Gyr, which is obtained only in rare cases, owing to a wide variation in star formation histories resulting from different orbital and progenitor configurations. Combined with empirical merger rates, the model lifetimes predict rapidly rising K+A fractions as a function of redshift that are consistent with results of large spectroscopic surveys, resolving tension between the observed K+A abundance and that predicted when one assumes the K+A duration is the lifetime of A stars ({approx}1 Gyr). These simulated spectra are spatially resolved on scales of about 1 kpc, and indicate that a centrally concentrated starburst causes the Balmer absorption strengths to increase toward the central few kiloparsecs of the remnant. The effects of dust attenuation, viewing angle, and aperture bias on our models are analyzed. In some cases, the K+A features are longer-lived and more pronounced when active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback removes dust from the center, uncovering the young stars formed during the burst. In this picture, the K+A phase begins during or shortly after the bright starburst/AGN phase in violent mergers, and thus offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of quasar and star formation feedback on the gas reservoir and evolution of the remnant. Analytic fitting formulae are provided for the estimates of K+A incidence as a function of merger scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE LBT BOOeTES FIELD SURVEY. I. THE REST-FRAME ULTRAVIOLET AND NEAR-INFRARED LUMINOSITY FUNCTIONS AND CLUSTERING OF BRIGHT LYMAN BREAK GALAXIES AT Z {approx} 3

We present a deep LBT/LBC U{sub spec}-band imaging survey (9 deg{sup 2}) covering the NOAO Booetes field. A total of 14,485 Lyman break galaxies (LBGs) at z {approx} 3 are selected, which are used to measure the rest-frame UV luminosity function (LF). The large sample size and survey area reduce the LF uncertainties due to Poisson statistics and cosmic variance by {>=}3 compared to previous studies. At the bright end, the LF shows excess power compared to the best-fit Schechter function, which can be attributed to the contribution of z {approx} 3 quasars. We compute the rest-frame near-infrared LF and stellar mass function (SMF) of z {approx} 3 LBGs based on the R-band and [4.5 {mu}m]-band flux relation. We investigate the evolution of the UV LFs and SMFs between z {approx} 7 and z {approx} 3, which supports a rising star formation history in the LBGs. We study the spatial correlation function of two bright LBG samples and estimate their average host halo mass. We find a tight relation between the host halo mass and the galaxy star formation rate (SFR), which follows the trend predicted by the baryonic accretion rate onto the halo, suggesting that the star formation in LBGs is fueled by baryonic accretion through the cosmic web. By comparing the SFRs with the total baryonic accretion rates, we find that cosmic star formation efficiency is about 5%-20% and it does not evolve significantly with redshift, halo mass, or galaxy luminosity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Application of Differential Scanning Calorimetry to Investigate Precipitation Behavior in Nickel-Base Superalloys Under Continuous Cooling and Heating Conditions

In this study, a suite of experimental tools and fast-acting, numerical-simulation techniques was used to quantify the precipitation behavior of three nickel-base superalloys: IN-100, LSHR, and 718. Experimental methods comprised differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to establish the specific heat as a function of temperature and selected direct-resistance heating trials (using a Gleeble ® machine) to obtain samples for microstructural analysis. For the DSC experiments, each alloy was cooled at a prescribed constant rate (between 5 and 20 K/min) after an initial soak/equilibration in the high-temperature, single-phase (supersolvus) temperature regime. On-heating DSC trials beginning at ambient temperature were also performed on alloy 718 in three different starting conditions: super- δ -solvus solution treated and water quenched (denoted as ST), solution treated and aged (STA), and solution treated and overaged (STOA). DSC results, revealing the thermal signatures associated with the kinetics of precipitation of γ ' (IN-100, LSHR) or γ ' and γ " (718), were interpreted using a previously-developed fast-acting routine that treats concurrent nucleation, growth, coarsening, and dissolution. For these simulations, special attention was paid to various thermo-kinetic input parameters including equilibrium solvus-approach curves, bulk free energies of transformation, matrix-precipitate interface energies, and effective diffusivities. For the γ - γ ' superalloys (IN-100 and LSHR), estimates of precipitate volume fraction as a function of temperature from the specific-heat data revealed semi-quantitative agreement with simulation predictions. For the γ - γ '- γ " superalloy (718), simulation predictions of precipitate volume fractions were converted to specific heat as a function of temperature and showed semi-quantitative agreement with the direct measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

LUMINOSITY FUNCTIONS OF SPITZER-IDENTIFIED PROTOSTARS IN NINE NEARBY MOLECULAR CLOUDS

We identify protostars in Spitzer surveys of nine star-forming (SF) molecular clouds within 1 kpc: Serpens, Perseus, Ophiuchus, Chamaeleon, Lupus, Taurus, Orion, Cep OB3, and Mon R2, which combined host over 700 protostar candidates. These clouds encompass a variety of SF environments, including both low-mass and high-mass SF regions, as well as dense clusters and regions of sparsely distributed star formation. Our diverse cloud sample allows us to compare protostar luminosity functions in these varied environments. We combine near- and mid-infrared photometry from the Two Micron All Sky Survey and Spitzer to create 1-24 {mu}m spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Using protostars from the c2d survey with well-determined bolometric luminosities, we derive a relationship between bolometric luminosity, mid-IR luminosity (integrated from 1-24 {mu}m), and SED slope. Estimations of the bolometric luminosities for protostar candidates are combined to create luminosity functions for each cloud. Contamination due to edge-on disks, reddened Class II sources, and galaxies is estimated and removed from the luminosity functions. We find that luminosity functions for high-mass SF clouds (Orion, Mon R2, and Cep OB3) peak near 1 L{sub Sun} and show a tail extending toward luminosities above 100 L{sub Sun }. The luminosity functions of the low-mass SF clouds (Serpens, Perseus, Ophiuchus, Taurus, Lupus, and Chamaeleon) do not exhibit a common peak, however the combined luminosity function of these regions peaks below 1 L{sub Sun }. Finally, we examine the luminosity functions as a function of the local surface density of young stellar objects. In the Orion molecular clouds, we find a significant difference between the luminosity functions of protostars in regions of high and low stellar density, the former of which is biased toward more luminous sources. This may be the result of primordial mass segregation, although this interpretation is not unique. We compare our luminosity functions to those predicted by models and find that our observed luminosity functions are best matched by models that invoke competitive accretion, although we do not find strong agreement between the high-mass SF clouds and any of the models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Solving numerically nonlinear systems of balance laws by multivariate sigmoidal functions approximation

A numerical method for solving systems of nonlinear one-dimensional balance laws, based on multivariate sigmoidal functions approximation, is developed. Constructive approximation theorems are first established in both, uniform and L{sup p} norms. A priori as well as a posteriori error estimates are derived for the numerical solutions, when various kinds of sigmoidal functions, such as unit step, logistic and Gompertz functions, are chosen. The residual of the numerical method is also estimated. Numerical examples are given to test the performance of the algorithm, a comparison with the Godunov method is made concerning accuracy and computational cost. Finally, the numerical stability of the method is analyzed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimized Auxiliary Functions for Robust Mitigation of Finite-Size Errors in Periodic Hybrid Density Functional Theory

When calculating properties of periodic systems at the thermodynamic limit (TDL), the dominant source of finite size error (FSE) arises from the long-range Coulomb interaction, and can manifest as a slowly converging quadrature error when approximating an integral in the reciprocal space by a finite sum. The singularity subtraction (SS) method offers a systematic approach for reducing this quadrature error and thus the FSE. Here, in this work, we first investigate the performance of the SS method in the simplest setting, aiming at reducing the FSE in exact exchange calculations by subtracting the Coulomb contribution with a single, adjustable Gaussian auxiliary function. We demonstrate that a simple fitting method can robustly estimate the optimal Gaussian width and leads to rapid convergence toward the TDL. Furthermore, we suggest new forms of the auxiliary function, whose optimal parameters could also be determined through least-squares fitting. For a range of semiconductors and insulators, the proposed auxiliary functions achieve robust, millihartree-level accuracy in hybrid density functional theory calculations, including cases with sparse k-meshes and large basis sets.

Quiton, Stephen Jon [University of California, Ber↗
DOE OSTI2013

SELF-CONSISTENT ION CYCLOTRON ANISOTROPY-BETA RELATION FOR SOLAR WIND PROTONS

We derive a set of self-consistent marginally stable states for a system of ion-cyclotron waves propagating parallel to the large-scale magnetic field through a homogeneous proton-electron plasma. The proton distributions and the wave dispersions are related through the condition that no further ion-cyclotron resonant particle scattering or wave growth/damping may take place. The thermal anisotropy of the protons in these states therefore defines the threshold value for triggering the proton-cyclotron anisotropy instability. A number of recent papers have noted that the anisotropy of solar wind protons at 1 AU does not seem to be limited by the proton-cyclotron anisotropy threshold, even at low plasma beta. However, this puzzle seems to be due solely to the estimation of this anisotropy threshold under the assumption that the protons have a bi-Maxwellian distribution. We note that bi-Maxwellian distributions are never marginally stable to the resonant cyclotron interaction, so these estimates do not represent physically valid thresholds. The threshold anisotropies obtained from our marginally stable states are much larger, as a function of proton parallel beta, than the bi-Maxwellian estimates, and we show that the measured data remains below these more rigorous thresholds. Thus, the results of this paper resolve the apparent contradiction presented by the solar wind anisotropy observations at 1 AU: the bi-Maxwellian anisotropies are not rigorous thresholds, and so do not limit the proton distributions in the solar wind.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Machine-Learning Methods Enable Exhaustive Searches for Active Bimetallic Facets and Reveal Active Site Motifs for CO 2 Reduction

Bimetallic catalysts are promising for the most difficult thermal and electrochemical reactions, but modeling the many diverse active sites on polycrystalline samples is an open challenge. Here, we present a general framework for addressing this complexity in a systematic and predictive fashion. Active sites for every stable low-index facet of a bimetallic crystal are enumerated and cataloged, yielding hundreds of possible active sites. The activity of these sites is explored in parallel using a neural-network-based surrogate model to share information between the many density functional theory (DFT) relaxations, resulting in activity estimates with an order of magnitude fewer explicit DFT calculations. Sites with interesting activity were found and provide targets for follow-up calculations. This process was applied to the electrochemical reduction of CO 2 on nickel gallium bimetallics and indicated that most facets had similar activity to Ni surfaces, but a few exposed Ni sites with a very favorable on-top CO configuration. This motif emerged naturally from the predictive modeling and represents a class of intermetallic CO 2 reduction catalysts. These sites rationalize recent experimental reports of nickel gallium activity and why previous materials screens missed this exciting material. Most importantly these methods suggest that bimetallic catalysts will be discovered by studying facet reactivity and diversity of active sites more systematically.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Starting-point-independent quantum Monte Carlo calculations of iron oxide

Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are useful for studies of strongly correlated materials because they are many body in nature and use the physical Hamiltonian. Typical calculations assume as a starting point a wave function constructed from single-particle orbitals obtained from one-body methods, e.g., density functional theory. However, mean-field-derived wave functions can sometimes lead to systematic QMC biases if the mean-field result poorly describes the true ground state. In this study, we examine the accuracy and flexibility of QMC trial wave functions using variational and fixed-node diffusion QMC estimates of the total spin density and lattice distortion of antiferromagnetic iron oxide (FeO) in the ground state B1 crystal structure. We found that for relatively simple wave functions the predicted lattice distortion was controlled by the choice of single-particle orbitals used to construct the wave function, rather than by subsequent wave function optimization techniques within QMC. By optimizing the orbitals with QMC, we then demonstrate starting-point independence of the trial wave function with respect to the method by which the orbitals were constructed by demonstrating convergence of the energy, spin density, and predicted lattice distortion for two qualitatively different sets of orbitals. The results suggest that orbital optimization is a promising method for accurate many-body calculations of strongly correlated condensed phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2013

Cyclus fuel cycle simulation capabilities with the CYDER disposal system model

An algorithm and supporting database for rapid thermal repository loading calculation was implemented in CYDER. This algorithm employs a Specific Temperature Change (STC) method and has resulted from combining detailed spent nuclear fuel composition data with a detailed thermal repository performance analysis tool from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. By abstraction of and benchmarking against these detailed thermal models, CYDER captures the dominant physics of thermal phenomena affecting repository capacity in various geologic media and as a function of spent fuel composition. Abstraction based on detailed computational thermal repository performance calculations with the LLNL semi-analytic model has resulted in implementation of the STC estimation algorithm and a supporting reference dataset. This method is capable of rapid estimation of temperature increase near emplacement tunnels as a function of waste composition, limiting radius, waste package spacing, near field thermal conductivity and near field thermal diffusivity. The sensitivity analyses and validation efforts conducted in this work demonstrate the capability of the CYDER tool to provide repository capacity and performance metrics in the context of dynamic fuel cycle.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of solar photovoltaic energy curtailment due to volt–watt control

The widespread deployment of autonomous inverter‐based solutions for mitigating voltage and frequency excursions caused by high‐penetration photovoltaic (PV) systems has drawn increased attention due to their potential impact on PV production. It is now important to quantify the amount of solar energy curtailed as a result of the activation of inverter‐based grid support functions (GSFs). This study proposes a methodology for estimating the impact of volt–watt on customer PV energy curtailment using smart meter voltage data. This method estimates maximum possible curtailment for a given volt–watt curve based on the customer smart meter voltage during the time period of interest. This study compares the proposed methodology with field measurements using irradiance and customer inverter data from Hawaii as well as with results from a previous simulation‐driven study on the impact of advanced inverter GSF activation on PV energy curtailment. Results show that the proposed method for estimating lost PV production caused by volt–watt control aligns reasonably well with field measurements and computer simulations for hundreds of customers. The proposed method could be used to estimate customer energy curtailment, which could inform future compensation mechanisms for utilities leveraging customer‐sited resources to mitigate high voltage and defer infrastructure upgrades.

Emmanuel, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2017

Revisiting Boundary Perturbation Theory for Inhomogeneous Transport Problems

Adjoint-based first-order perturbation theory is applied again to boundary perturbation problems. Rahnema developed a perturbation estimate that gives an accurate first-order approximation of a flux or reaction rate within a radioactive system when the boundary is perturbed. When the response of interest is the flux or leakage current on the boundary, the Roussopoulos perturbation estimate has long been used. The Rahnema and Roussopoulos estimates differ in one term. Our paper shows that the Rahnema and Roussopoulos estimates can be derived consistently, using different responses, from a single variational functional (due to Gheorghiu and Rahnema), resolving any apparent contradiction. In analytic test problems, Rahnema’s estimate and the Roussopoulos estimate produce exact first derivatives of the response of interest when appropriately applied. We also present a realistic, nonanalytic test problem.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗