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NASA NTRS1989

Mutants of Arabidopsis thaliana with decreased amplitude in their phototropic response

Two mutants of Arabidopsis thaliana have been identified with decreased phototropism to 450-nanometer light. Fluence-response relationships for these strains (ZR8 and ZR19) to single and multiple flashes of light show thresholds, curve shapes, and fluence for maximum curvature in first positive' phototropism which are the same as those of the wild type. Similarly, there is no alteration from the wild type in the kinetics of curvature or in the optimum dark period separating sequential flashes in a multiple flash regimen. In addition, in both strains, gravitropism is decreased compared to the wild type by an amount which is comparable to the decrease in phototropism. Based on reciprocal backcrosses, it appears that the alteration is due to a recessive nuclear mutation. It is suggested that ZR8 and ZR19 represent alterations in some step analogous to an amplifier, downstream of the photoreceptor pigment, and common to both phototropism and gravitropism.

NASA Discipline Number 29-20↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimating the NO(x) produced by lightning from GOME and NLDN data: A case study in the Gulf of Mexico

Nitrogen oxides (NO(x)=NO+NO2) play an important role in tropospheric chemistry, in particular in catalytic ozone production. Lightning provides a natural source of nitrogen oxides, dominating the production in the tropical upper troposphere, with strong impact on tropospheric ozone and the atmosphere s oxidizing capacity. Recent estimates of lightning produced NO(x) (LNO(x)) are of the order of 5 Tg [N] per year with still high uncertainties in the range of one order of magnitude. The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board the ESA-satellite ERS-2 allows the retrieval of tropospheric column densities of NO2 on a global scale. Here we present the GOME NO2 measurement directly over a large convective system over the Gulf of Mexico. Simultaneously, cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes are counted by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN(TradeMark)), and extrapolated to include intracloud (IC)+CG flashes based on a climatological IC:CG ratio derived from NASA s space-based lightning sensors. A series of 14 GOME pixels shows largely enhanced column densities over thick and high clouds, coinciding with strong lightning activity. The enhancements can not be explained by transport of anthropogenic NO(x) and must be due to fresh production of LNO(x). A quantitative analysis, accounting in particular for the visibility of LNO, from satellite, yields a LNO, production of 90 (32-240) moles of NO(x), or 1.3 (0.4-3.4) kg [N], per flash. If simply extrapolated, this corresponds to a global LNO(x) production of 1.7 (0.6-4.7) Tg [N]/yr.

Beirle, S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Countermeasure for Space Motion Sickness

Overall, the results obtained in both the U.S. and the Russian space programs indicate that most space crews will experience some symptoms of motion sickness (MS) causing significant impact on the operational objectives that must be accomplished to assure mission success. At this time the primary countermeasure for MS requires the administration of Promethazine. Promethazine is not a benign drug, and is most frequently administered just prior to the sleep cycle to prevent its side effects from further compromising mission objectives. Clearly other countermeasures for SMS must be developed. Currently the primary focus is on two different technologies: (1) developing new and different pharmacological compounds with less significant side effects, (2) preflight training. The primary problem with all of these methods for controlling MS is time. New drugs that may be beneficial are years from testing and development, and preflight training requires a significant investment of crew time during an already intensive pre-launch schedule. Granted, motion sickness symptoms can be minimized with either of the two methods detailed above, however, it may be possible to develop a countermeasure that does not require either extensive adaptation time or exposure to motion sickness. Approximately 25 years ago Professor Geoffrey Melvill Jones presented his work on adaptation of the vestibuloocular reflex (VOR) using optically reversed vision (left-right prisms) during head rotations in the horizontal plane. It was of no surprise that most subjects experienced motion sickness while wearing the optically reversing prisms. However, a serendipitous finding emerged during this research showing that the same subjects did not experience motion sickness symptoms when wearing the reversing prisms under stroboscopic illumination. The mechanism, by which this side-effect was believed to have occurred, is not clearly understood. However, the fact that no motion sickness was ever noted, suggests the possibility of producing functionally useful adaptation during space flight without the penalty of disabling motion sickness by controlling the rate of the adaptive process by means of an appropriate stroboscopically presented environment. After several recent meetings with Professor Melvill Jones, we were encouraged to repeat the motion sickness portions of his and Mandl's 1981 stroboscopic experiment. In conducting this experiment we used a randomized cross-over design where subjects were randomly assigned to either a stroboscopic flash or no strobe for their first exposure in the experimental design. Twenty subjects (19 subjects completed the study) read a short passage from Treasure Island mounted on the wall approximately 1 m from their eyes while wearing left-right reversing prisms. The strobe on time of 3 microseconds and flash frequency of 4 Hz was set to equal that used in the original study. Motion sickness was scored using a modified Miller and Graybiel scale that we constructed to include symptoms that may be elicited under conditions where reversing prisms are worn. On this scale a score of 5 represented Malaise IIa (mild motion sickness) and a score of 8 or above is approaching frank sickness. Symptoms were tracked and recorded every 5 min during the task. Testing was limited to 30 min unless the subject had reached the MIIa score, at which time the test was terminated. Performance under stroboscopic illumination was significantly better than when the subjects read under normal room illumination while wearing the left-right reversing prisms. Based on these results we developed a goggle system using LCD material that can be strobed. To evaluate the effectiveness of stroboscopic goggles we tested an additional 9 subjects in addition to retesting 10 used in the stroboscopic pilot study described above. These 19 subjects wore a pair of strobing LCD goggles that could be cycled at 4 Hz. These subjects wore the goggles while also wearing left-right reversg prisms. Results while wearing the goggles showed that none of the 19 subjects scored at the MIIa level on the motion sickness rating scale. When the goggles did not flash (no strobe), 11 of the 19 developed symptoms above the MIIa criteria. As a countermeasure the goggles seem to be effective, even with an on time of 10 msec (time the goggles are clear). We have also collected anecdotal data, from our personnel in the Neuroscience Laboratory at the Johnson Space Center, suggesting that the goggles may effective in preventing carsickness.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modification of Eccentric Gaze-Holding

Clear vision and accurate localization of objects in the environment are prerequisites for reliable performance of motor tasks. Space flight confronts the crewmember with a stimulus rearrangement that requires adaptation to function effectively with the new requirements of altered spatial orientation and motor coordination. Adaptation and motor learning driven by the effects of cerebellar disorders may share some of the same demands that face our astronauts. One measure of spatial localization shared by the astronauts and those suffering from cerebellar disorders that is easily quantified, and for which a neurobiological substrate has been identified, is the control of the angle of gaze (the "line of sight"). The disturbances of gaze control that have been documented to occur in astronauts and cosmonauts, both in-flight and postflight, can be directly related to changes in the extrinsic gravitational environment and intrinsic proprioceptive mechanisms thus, lending themselves to description by simple non-linear statistical models. Because of the necessity of developing robust normal response populations and normative populations against which abnormal responses can be evaluated, the basic models can be formulated using normal, non-astronaut test subjects and subsequently extended using centrifugation techniques to alter the gravitational and proprioceptive environment of these subjects. Further tests and extensions of the models can be made by studying abnormalities of gaze control in patients with cerebellar disease. A series of investigations were conducted in which a total of 62 subjects were tested to: (1) Define eccentric gaze-holding parameters in a normative population, and (2) explore the effects of linear acceleration on gaze-holding parameters. For these studies gaze-holding was evaluated with the subjects seated upright (the normative values), rolled 45 degrees to both the left and right, or pitched back 30 and 90 degrees. In a separate study the further effects of acceleration on gaze stability was examined during centrifugation (+2 G (sub x) and +2 G (sub z) using a total of 23 subjects. In all of our investigations eccentric gaze-holding was established by having the subjects acquire an eccentric target (+/-30 degrees horizontal, +/- 15 degrees vertical) that was flashed for 750 msec in an otherwise dark room. Subjects were instructed to hold gaze on the remembered position of the flashed target for 20 sec. Immediately following the 20 sec period, subjects were cued to return to the remembered center position and to hold gaze there for an additional 20 sec. Following this 20 sec period the center target was briefly flashed and the subject made any corrective eye movement back to the true center position. Conventionally, the ability to hold eccentric gaze is estimated by fitting the natural log of centripetal eye drifts by linear regression and calculating the time constant (G) of these slow phases of "gaze-evoked nystagmus". However, because our normative subjects sometimes showed essentially no drift (tau (sub c) = m), statistical estimation and inference on the effect of target direction was performed on values of the decay constant theta = 1/(tau (sub c)) which we found was well modeled by a gamma distribution. Subjects showed substantial variance of their eye drifts, which were centrifugal in approximately 20 % of cases, and > 40% for down gaze. Using the ensuing estimated gamma distributions, we were able to conclude that rightward and leftward gaze holding were not significantly different, but that upward gaze holding was significantly worse than downward (p<0.05). We also concluded that vertical gaze holding was significantly worse than horizontal (p<0.05). In the case of left and right roll, we found that both had a similar improvement to horizontal gaze holding (p<0.05), but didn't have a significant effect on vertical gaze holding. For pitch tilts, both tilt angles significantly decreased gaze-holding ility in all directions (p<0.05). Finally, we found that hyper-g centrifugation significantly decreased gaze holding ability in the vertical plane. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) vertical gaze-holding is less stable than horizontal, (2) gaze-holding to upward targets is less stable than to downward targets, (3) tilt affects gaze holding, and (4) hyper-g affects gaze holding. This difference between horizontal and vertical gaze-holding may be ascribed to separate components of the velocity-to-position neural integrator for eye movements, and to differences in orbital mechanics. The differences between upward and downward gaze-holding may be ascribed to an inherent vertical imbalance in the vestibular system. Because whole body tilt and hyper-g affects gaze-holding, it is implied that the otolith organs have direct connections to the neural integrator and further studies of astronaut gaze-holding are warranted. Our statistical method for representing the range of normal eccentric gaze stability can be readily applied to normals who maybe exposed to environments which may modify the central integrator and require monitoring, and to evaluate patients with gaze-evoked nystagmus by comparing to the above established normative criteria.

Reschke, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Diurnal Lightning Distributions as Observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

Data obtained from the Optical Transient Detector (April 1995 to March 2000) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (December 1997 to December 2005) satellites (70 and 35 inclination low earth orbits, respectively) are used to statistically determine the number of flashes in the annual and seasonal diurnal cycle as a function of local and universal time. The data are further subdivided by season, land versus ocean, northern versus southern hemisphere, and other spatial (e.g., continents) and temporal (e.g., time of peak diurnal amplitude) categories. The data include corrections for detection efficiency and instrument view time. Continental results display strong diurnal variation, with a lightning peak in the late afternoon and a minimum in late morning. In regions of the world dominated by large mesoscale convective systems the peak in the diurnal curve shifts toward late evening or early morning hours. The maximum diurnal flash rate occurs in June-August, corresponding to the Northern Hemisphere summer, while the minimum occurs in December-February. Summer lightning dominates over winter activity and springtime lightning dominates over autumn activity at most continental locations. This latter behavior occurs especially strongly over the Amazon region in South America in September-November. Oceanic lightning activity in winter and autumn tends to exceed that in summer and spring. Global lightning is well correlated in phase but not in amplitude with the Carnegie curve. The diurnal flash rate varies about 4-35 percent about the mean, while the Carnegie curve varies around 4-15 percent.

Bailey, Jeff C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Closer Look at the Congo and the Lightning Maximum on Earth

The global maps of maximum mean annual flash density derived from a decade of observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite show that a 0.5 degree x 0.5 degree pixel west of Bukavu, Democratic Republic of Congo (latitude 2S, longitude 28E) has the most frequent lightning activity anywhere on earth with an average value in excess of 157 fl/sq km/yr. This pixel has a flash density that is much greater than even its surrounding neighbors. By contrast the maximum mean annual flash rate for North America located in central Florida is only 33 fl/sq km/yr. Previous studies have shown that monthly-seasonal-annual lightning maxima on earth occur in regions dominated by coastal (land-sea breeze interactions) or topographic influences (elevated heat sources, enhanced convergence). Using TRMM, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, and Shuttle Imaging Radar imagery we further examine the unique features of this region situated in the deep tropics and dominated by a complex topography having numerous mountain ridges and valleys to better understand why this pixel, unlike any other, has the most active lightning on the planet.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of Vertically Integrated Ice in WRF-Based Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Previously reported methods of forecasting lightning threat using fields of graupel flux from WRF simulations are extended to include the simulated field of vertically integrated ice within storms. Although the ice integral shows less temporal variability than graupel flux, it provides more areal coverage, and can thus be used to create a lightning forecast that better matches the areal coverage of the lightning threat found in observations of flash extent density. A blended lightning forecast threat can be constructed that retains much of the desirable temporal sensitivity of the graupel flux method, while also incorporating the coverage benefits of the ice integral method. The graupel flux and ice integral fields contributing to the blended forecast are calibrated against observed lightning flash origin density data, based on Lightning Mapping Array observations from a series of case studies chosen to cover a wide range of flash rate conditions. Linear curve fits that pass through the origin are found to be statistically robust for the calibration procedures.

McCaul, E. W., jr.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The North Alabama Lightning Warning Product

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array NALMA has been collecting total lightning data on storms in the Tennessee Valley region since 2001. Forecasters from nearby National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been ingesting this data for display with other AWIPS products. The current lightning product used by the offices is the lightning source density plot. The new product provides a probabalistic, short-term, graphical forecast of the probability of lightning activity occurring at 5 min intervals over the next 30 minutes . One of the uses of the current lightning source density product by the Huntsville National Weather Service Office is to identify areas of potential for cloud-to-ground flashes based on where LMA total lightning is occurring. This product quantifies that observation. The Lightning Warning Product is derived from total lightning observations from the Washington, D.C. (DCLMA) and North Alabama Lightning Mapping Arrays and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Probability predictions are provided for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes. The gridded product can be displayed on AWIPS workstations in a manner similar to that of the lightning source density product.

Buechler, Dennis E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Lightning Behavior and its Dependence on Storm Kinematic and Precipitation Processes in Northern Alabama

Numerous case studies and recent modeling studies have found that various metrics of updraft intensity appear to be reasonably well correlated to lightning production in thunderstorms, particularly severe thunderstorms. Indeed, the relationship between updraft and lightning flash rate is hypothesized to be the physical connection between a lightning "jump" signature and manifestations of severe weather such as tornadic activity. This study further examines this connection using a combination of dual Doppler wind retrievals made with the UAH ARMOR dual polarimetric and KHTX WSR 88D Doppler radar pair, together with northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. The dual Doppler data were used to construct three dimensional wind fields and the retrieved vertical velocity fields were subsequently compared to collocated total lightning flash rates observed by the LMA. Particular attention was paid to the timing of updraft pulses relative to changes in the flash rate, with the goal of assessing impacts on warning decision lead time. Results from the analysis of severe and non severe thunderstorms in Northern Alabama will be presented including the EF 4 tornado producing supercell on 6 February 2008.

Johnson, Elsie V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Climate and Lightning: An updated TRMM-LIS Analysis

The TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has sampled global tropical and sub-tropical lightning flash densities for approximately 11 years. These data were originally processed and results presented by the authors in the 3rd AMS MALD Conference held in 2007 using both pre and post TRMM-boost lightning data. These data were normalized for the orbit boost by scaling the pre-boost data by a fixed constant based on the different swath areas for the pre and post-boost years (post-boost after 2001). Inevitably, one must question this simple approach to accounting for the orbit boost when sampling such a noisy quantity. Hence we are in the process of reprocessing the entire 11-year TRMM LIS dataset to reduce the orbit swath of the post-boost era to that of the pre-boost in order to eliminate sampling bias in the dataset. Study of the diurnal/seasonal/annual sampling suggests that those biases are already minimal and should not contribute to error in examination of annual trends. We will present new analysis of the 11-year annual trends in total lightning flash density for all latitudinal belts and select regions/regimes of the tropics as related to conventional climate signals and precipitation contents in the same period. The results should enable us to address, in some fashion, the sensitivity of the lightning flash density to subtle changes in climate.

Petersen, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 11 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-900 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) at NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 12 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. (2000) for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-800 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

First Earth-Based Detection of a Superbolide on Jupiter

Cosmic collisions can planets cause detectable optical flashes that range from terrestrial shooting stars to bright fireballs. On 2010 June 3 a bolide in Jupiter's atmosphere was simultaneously observed from the Earth by two amateur astronomers observing Jupiter in red and blue wavelengths, The bolide appeared as a flash of 2 s duration in video recording data of the planet. The analysis of the light carve of the observations results in an estimated energy of the impact of (0.9-4,0) x 10(exp 15) J which corresponds to a colliding body of 8-13 m diameter assuming a mean density of 2 g/cu cm. Images acquired a few days later by the Hubble Space Telescope and other large ground-based facilities did not show any signature of aerosol debris, temperature, or chemical composition anomaly, confirming that the body was small and destroyed in Jupiter's upper atmosphere. Several collisions of this size may happen on Jupiter on a yearly basis. A systematic study of the impact rate and size of these bolides can enable an empirical determination. of the flux of meteoroids in Jupiter with implications for the populations of small bodies in the outer solar system and may allow a better quantification of the threat of impacting bodies to Earth. The serendipitous recording of this optical flash opens a new window in the observation of Jupiter with small telescopes.

Hueso, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of TRMM-LIS Lightning and Related Microphysics Using a Cell-Scale Database

Previous studies of tropical lightning activity using Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data performed analyses of lightning behavior over mesoscale "feature" scales or over uniform grids. In order to study lightning and the governing ice microphysics intrinsic to thunderstorms at a more process-specific scale (i.e., the scale over which electrification processes and lightning occur in a "unit" thunderstorm), a new convective cell-scale database was developed by analyzing and refining the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database and retaining precipitation data parameters computed from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), microwave imager (TMI) and LIS instruments. The resulting data base was to conduct a limited four-year study of tropical continental convection occurring over the Amazon Basin, Congo, Maritime Continent and the western Pacific Ocean. The analysis reveals expected strong correlations between lightning flash counts per cell and ice proxies, such as ice water path, minimum and average 85GHz brightness temperatures, and 18dBz echo top heights above the freezing level in all regimes, as well as regime-specific relationships between lighting flash counts and PR-derived surface rainfall rates. Additionally, radar CFADs were used to partition the 3D structure of cells in each regime at different flash counts. The resulting cell-scale analyses are compared to previous mesoscale feature and gridded studies wherever possible.

Leroy, Anita↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Electric Circuit Implications of Combined Aircraft Storm Electric Current Measurements and Satellite-Based Diurnal Lightning Statistics

Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean thunderstorms is 1.7 A while the mean current for land thunderstorms is 1.0 A. The mean current for ocean ESCs 0.41 A and the mean current for land ESCs is 0.13 A. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal flash rate statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean) from thunderstorms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from ESCs, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Mean storm counts are 1100 for land thunderstorms, 530 for ocean ESCs, 390 for ocean thunderstorms, and 330 for land ESCs.

Mach, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗