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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

An Interdisciplinary Approach at Studying the Earth-Sun System with GPS/GNSS and GPS-like Signals

The value of Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) measurements to atmospheric science, space physics, and ocean science, is now emerging or showing a potential to play a major role in the evolving programs of NASA, NSF and NOAA. The objective of this communication is to identify and articulate the key scientific questions that are optimally, or perhaps uniquely, addressed by GPS or GPS-like observations, and discuss their relevance to existing or planned national Earth-science research programs. The GPS-based ocean reflection experiments performed to date have demonstrated the precision and spatial resolution suitable to altimetric applications that require higher spatial resolution and more frequent repeat than the current radar altimeter satellites. GPS radio occultation is promising as a climate monitoring tool because of its benchmark properties: its raw observable is based on extremely accurate timing measurements. GPS-derived temperature profiles can provide meaningful climate trend information over decadal time scales without the need for overlapping missions or mission-to-mission calibrations. By acquiring data as GPS satellites occult behind the Earth's limb, GPS also provides high vertical resolution information on the vertical structure of electron density with global coverage. New experimental techniques will create more comprehensive TEC maps by using signals reflected from the oceans and received in orbit. This communication will discuss a potential future GNSS Earth Observing System project which would deploy a constellation of satellites using GPS and GPS-like measurements, to obtain a) topography measurements based on GPS reflections with an accuracy and horizontal resolution suitable for eddy monitoring, and h) climate-records quality atmospheric temperature profiles. The constellation would also provide for measurements of ionospheric elec tron density. This is a good example of an interdisciplinary mission concept, with broad science objectives of high societal relevance, al l resting on common cost-effective technology.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)↗

The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI)

Climate change is a significant risk for agricultural production. Even under optimistic scenarios for climate mitigation action, present-day agricultural areas are likely to face significant increases in temperatures in the coming decades, in addition to changes in precipitation, cloud cover, and the frequency and duration of extreme heat, drought, and flood events (IPCC, 2013). These factors will affect the agricultural system at the global scale by impacting cultivation regimes, prices, trade, and food security (Nelson et al., 2014a). Global-scale evaluation of crop productivity is a major challenge for climate impact and adaptation assessment. Rigorous global assessments that are able to inform planning and policy will benefit from consistent use of models, input data, and assumptions across regions and time that use mutually agreed protocols designed by the modeling community. To ensure this consistency, large-scale assessments are typically performed on uniform spatial grids, with spatial resolution of typically 10 to 50 km, over specified time-periods. Many distinct crop models and model types have been applied on the global scale to assess productivity and climate impacts, often with very different results (Rosenzweig et al., 2014). These models are based to a large extent on field-scale crop process or ecosystems models and they typically require resolved data on weather, environmental, and farm management conditions that are lacking in many regions (Bondeau et al., 2007; Drewniak et al., 2013; Elliott et al., 2014b; Gueneau et al., 2012; Jones et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2007; M¨uller and Robertson, 2014; Van den Hoof et al., 2011;Waha et al., 2012; Xiong et al., 2014). Due to data limitations, the requirements of consistency, and the computational and practical limitations of running models on a large scale, a variety of simplifying assumptions must generally be made regarding prevailing management strategies on the grid scale in both the baseline and future periods. Implementation differences in these and other modeling choices contribute to significant variation among global-scale crop model assessments in addition to differences in crop model implementations that also cause large differences in site-specific crop modeling (Asseng et al., 2013; Bassu et al., 2014).

climate↗

Acoustic Measurements from Wind Tunnel Test of AMELIA - Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics

A wind tunnel test has been conducted to measure the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of an active circulation-control aircraft with leading- and trailing- edge slot blowing. The 11 Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) model was tested in the Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) National Full Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Ft wind tunnel. Forward velocities ranged from 0 to Mach 0.15 and total slot mass-flow was varied from 0 to 2.8 lbmsec. Angle-of-attack and sideslip ranges were -5 to 25 and -10 to 10, respectively.This reports summarizes acoustic measurements from the wind tunnel test and the corrections applied to the released acoustic data. The analysis focuses on measurements for the clean wing configuration (turbine propulsion simulators removed) with trailing-and leading-edge slot blowing and with trailing-edge blowing, for systematic variations in slot mass flow from nearly zero to the system maximum. The acoustic measurements from a fixed phased microphone array and seven fixed microphones were corrected for sensor directional response and atmospheric attenuation. Graphs of 13-octave spectra, narrowband spectra, and directional variations in OASPL are presented for each active lift configuration. This report is intended to document the corresponding set of corrected data that is now available for development and verification of new predictive models of the active lift source.For large slot mass flow conditions 13-octave spectral shapes were level and flat, typical of a pink noise source. Little source directivity was present in the OASPL levels for the 0 flap conditions and show only a slight downstream increase with the 60 flap configuration. For moderate to high slot mass flow conditions trailing-edge only blowing spectra were similar to leading- and trailing edge blowing cases. However for the lower mass flows variations of as much as 5 dB were observed.

CCW↗

Hidden order across online extremist movements can be disrupted by nudging collective chemistry

Disrupting the emergence and evolution of potentially violent online extremist movements is a crucial challenge. Extremism research has analyzed such movements in detail, focusing on individual- and movement-level characteristics. But are there system-level commonalities in the ways these movements emerge and grow? Here we compare the growth of the Boogaloos, a new and increasingly prominent U.S. extremist movement, to the growth of online support for ISIS, a militant, terrorist organization based in the Middle East that follows a radical version of Islam. We show that the early dynamics of these two online movements follow the same mathematical order despite their stark ideological, geographical, and cultural differences. The evolution of both movements, across scales, follows a single shockwave equation that accounts for heterogeneity in online interactions. These scientific properties suggest specific policies to address online extremism and radicalization. We show how actions by social media platforms could disrupt the onset and ‘flatten the curve’ of such online extremism by nudging its collective chemistry. Our results provide a system-level understanding of the emergence of extremist movements that yields fresh insight into their evolution and possible interventions to limit their growth.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Evaluating the Representations of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Associated Precipitation in Reanalyses With Satellite Observations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of enhanced horizontal moisture transport in the atmosphere. Due to their prominent role in the meridional moisture transport and regional weather extremes, ARs have been studied extensively in recent years. Yet, the representations of ARs and their associated precipitation on a global scale remains largely unknown. In this study, we developed an AR detection algorithm specifically for satellite observations using moisture and the geostrophic winds derived from 3D geopotential height field from the combined retrievals of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on NASA Aqua satellite. This algorithm enables us to develop the first global AR catalog based solely on satellite observations. The satellite–based AR catalog is then combined with the satellite–based precipitation (Integrated Muti–SatellitE Retrievals for GPM) to evaluate the representations of ARs and AR–induced precipitation in reanalysis products. Here our results show that the spreads in AR frequency and AR length distribution are generally small across data sets, while the spread in AR width is relatively larger. Reanalysis products are found to consistently underestimate both mean and extreme AR–related precipitation. However, all reanalyses tend to precipitate too often under AR conditions, especially over low latitude regions. This finding is consistent with the “drizzling” bias which has plagued generations of climate models. Overall, the findings of this study can help to improve the representations of ARs and associated precipitation in reanalyses and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sintering inhibition enables hierarchical porosity with extreme resistance to degradation during redox cycling of Fe-Mo foams

High-temperature (800 ºC) steam-hydrogen redox cycling, relevant to grid-scale energy storage, is studied for iron-based freeze-cast lamellar foams. In contrast to previously studied Fe, Fe-Ni, and Fe-Co foams that rapidly degrade, Fe-25Mo foams feature a much-enhanced structural damage resistance. Utilizing in-situ x-ray diffraction, microscopy, and x-ray tomography, strong sintering inhibition is observed in Fe-Mo foams, creating a hierarchically porous lamellar structure. This leads to (i) wide channels between lamellae, enabling high macroscopic porosity (~78%) which can accommodate gas flow as well as volumetric expansion without lamellar contact, and (ii) microporosity within lamellae, providing additional free volume to accommodate expansion during oxidation, limiting both swelling of the lamellae and the formation of Kirkendall pores. Finally, these combined effects enable a near-complete reversibility of the microstructure during cycling, preventing damage produced via internal lamellar buckling, cracking, contacting and sintering, with a remarkably high porosity (65%) remaining after 50 consecutive redox cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimal Dynamic Sub-Threshold Technique for Extreme Low Power Consumption for VLSI

For miniaturization of electronics systems, power consumption plays a key role in the realm of constraints. Considering the very large scale integration (VLSI) design aspect, as transistor feature size is decreased to 50 nm and below, there is sizable increase in the number of transistors as more functional building blocks are embedded in the same chip. However, the consequent increase in power consumption (dynamic and leakage) will serve as a key constraint to inhibit the advantages of transistor feature size reduction. Power consumption can be reduced by minimizing the voltage supply (for dynamic power consumption) and/or increasing threshold voltage (V(sub th), for reducing leakage power). When the feature size of the transistor is reduced, supply voltage (V(sub dd)) and threshold voltage (V(sub th)) are also reduced accordingly; then, the leakage current becomes a bigger factor of the total power consumption. To maintain low power consumption, operation of electronics at sub-threshold levels can be a potentially strong contender; however, there are two obstacles to be faced: more leakage current per transistor will cause more leakage power consumption, and slow response time when the transistor is operated in weak inversion region. To enable low power consumption and yet obtain high performance, the CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) transistor as a basic element is viewed and controlled as a four-terminal device: source, drain, gate, and body, as differentiated from the traditional approach with three terminals: i.e., source and body, drain, and gate. This technique features multiple voltage sources to supply the dynamic control, and uses dynamic control to enable low-threshold voltage when the channel (N or P) is active, for speed response enhancement and high threshold voltage, and when the transistor channel (N or P) is inactive, to reduce the leakage current for low-leakage power consumption.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

FedCSpc: A Cross-Silo Federated Learning System With Error-Bounded Lossy Parameter Compression

Cross-Silo federated learning is widely used for scaling deep neural network (DNN) training over data silos from different locations worldwide while guaranteeing data privacy. Communication has been identified as the main bottleneck when training large-scale models due to large-volume model parameters and gradient transmission across public networks with limited bandwidth. Most previous works focus on gradient compression, while limited work tries to compress parameters that can not be ignored and extremely affect communication performance during the training. Here, to bridge this gap, we propose FedCSpc: an efficient cross-silo federated learning system with an XAI-driven adaptive parameter compression strategy for large-scale model training. Our work substantially differs from existing gradient compression techniques due to the distinct data features of gradient and parameter. The key contributions of this paper are fourfold. (1) Our designed FedCSpc proposes to compress the parameter during the training using the state-of-the-art error-bounded lossy compressor – SZ3. (2) We develop an adaptive compression error bound adjustment algorithm to guarantee the model accuracy effectively. (3) We exploit an efficient approach to utilize the idle CPU resources of clients to compress the parameters. (4) We perform a comprehensive evaluation with a wide range of models and benchmarks on a GPU cluster with 65 GPUs. Results show that FedCSpc can achieve the same model accuracy as FedAvg while reducing the data volume of parameters and gradients in communication by up to 7.39× and 288×, respectively. With 32 clients on a 4 Gb size model, FedCSpc significantly outperforms FedAvg in wall-clock time in the emulated WAN environment (at the bandwidth of 1 Gbps or lower without loss of generality).

SZ3↗

Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets

The intensification of extreme precipitation under anthropogenic forcing is robustly projected by global climate models, but highly challenging to detect in the observational record. Large internal variability distorts this anthropogenic signal. Models produce diverse magnitudes of precipitation response to anthropogenic forcing, largely due to differing schemes for parameterizing subgrid-scale processes. Meanwhile, multiple global observational datasets of daily precipitation exist, developed using varying techniques and inhomogeneously sampled data in space and time. Previous attempts to detect human influence on extreme precipitation have not incorporated model uncertainty, and have been limited to specific regions and observational datasets. Using machine learning methods that can account for these uncertainties and capable of identifying the time evolution of the spatial patterns, we find a physically interpretable anthropogenic signal that is detectable in all global observational datasets. Machine learning efficiently generates multiple lines of evidence supporting detection of an anthropogenic signal in global extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗

Martian Atmospheric Modeling of Scale Factors for MarsGRAM 2005 and the MAVEN Project

For spacecraft missions to Mars, especially the navigation of Martian orbiters and landers, an extensive knowledge of the Martian atmosphere is extremely important. The generally-accepted NASA standard for modeling (MarsGRAM), which was developed at Marshall Space Flight Center. MarsGRAM is useful for task such as aerobraking, performance analysis and operations planning for aerobraking, entry descent and landing, and aerocapture. Unfortunately, the densities for the Martian atmosphere in MarsGRAM are based on table look-up and not on an analytical algorithm. Also, these values can vary drastically from the densities actually experienced by the spacecraft. This does not have much of an impact on simple integrations but drastically affects its usefulness in other applications, especially those in navigation. For example, the navigation team for the Mars Atmosphere Volatile Environment (MAVEN) Project uses MarsGRAM to target the desired atmospheric density for the orbiter's pariapse passage, its closet approach to the planet. After the satellite's passage through pariapsis the computed density is compared to the MarsGRAM model and a scale factor is assigned to the model to account for the difference. Therefore, large variations in the atmosphere from the model can cause unexpected deviations from the spacecraft's planned trajectory. In order to account for this, an analytic stochastic model of the scale factor's behavior is desired. The development of this model will allow for the MAVEN navigation team to determine the probability of various Martian atmospheric variations and their effects on the spacecraft.

Martian atmosphere↗

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and modeling for a small-scale, rapidly heated high explosives initiation time (HEIT) experiment

Most small-scale assessments of explosive sensitivity, including the popular drop-weight impact test, convolute thermal and mechanical phenomena to the extent that it has been extremely challenging to decipher how an explosive ignites and propagates reactions. For instance, an impact generates heat through a range of dissipation mechanisms, which can in turn, depending on the reaction rates of the explosive, lead to chemical decomposition. To deconvolute the various contributions to the sub-shock initiation and propagation of explosive reactions, we describe the development and modeling of the High Explosives Initiation Time (HEIT) test - a new, small-scale, high-throughput experiment designed to rapidly heat milligram quantities of energetic materials confined within small diameter steel needles. Specifically, we have modeled and designed a 250 joule pulsed power system capable of rapidly delivering electrical current to the needles, resulting in rapid heat delivery to the sample. In conclusion, the energy deposition rate into the sample is controlled by different transmission line topologies. Modeling in COMSOL is performed to understand the energy required to heat up the explosive sample.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Two newly discovered millisecond pulsars

Two millisecond pulsars have been discovered in the course of systematic surveys being made with the Arecibo radio telescope. PSR J2019 + 2425 has a 3.935 ms period and moves in a nearly circular, 76.5 day orbit around a about 0.3 solar mass companion. PSR J2322 + 2057, with a period of 4.808 ms, is an isolated object. The two pulsars have unusually small period derivatives, corresponding to spin-down time scales of 7.5 +/- 0.5 and 11 +/- 5 Gyr, respectively. Both objects show pulse time-of-arrival residuals no larger than a few microseconds over many months, lending further support to the observation that 'recycled' pulsars have extremely stable rotational behavior. The timing results also confirm that physics related to the rotational dynamics of these strongly self-gravitating stars - in particular, the value of the gravitational coupling constant G - remains essentially constant over time scales comparable to the Hubble time. Dispersion measures of the two pulsars indicate distances of 0.8-0.9 kpc.

Nice, D. J.↗

A non-linear solution to the S 8 tension – II. Analysis of DES Year 3 cosmic shear

ABSTRACT Weak galaxy lensing surveys have consistently reported low values of the S8 parameter compared to the Planck lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. Amon & Efstathiou used KiDS-1000 cosmic shear measurements to propose that this tension can be reconciled if the matter fluctuation spectrum is suppressed more strongly on non-linear scales than assumed in state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. In this paper, we investigate cosmic shear data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3. The non-linear suppression of the matter power spectrum required to resolve the S8 tension between DES and the Planck ΛCDM model is not as strong as inferred using KiDS data, but is still more extreme than predictions from recent numerical simulations. An alternative possibility is that non-standard dark matter contributes to the required suppression. We investigate the redshift and scale dependence of the suppression of the matter power spectrum. If our proposed explanation of the S8 tension is correct, the required suppression must extend into the mildly non-linear regime to wavenumbers $k\sim 0.2 \, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. In addition, all measures of S8 using linear scales should agree with the Planck ΛCDM cosmology, an expectation that will be testable to high precision in the near future.

Preston, Calvin (ORCID:0000000281136916)↗

Atomic-scale quantum sensing based on the ultrafast coherence of an H 2 molecule in an STM cavity

A scanning tunneling microscope (STM) combined with a pump-probe femtosecond terahertz (THz) laser can enable coherence measurements of single molecules. We report THz pump-probe measurements that demonstrate quantum sensing based on a hydrogen (H 2 ) molecule in the cavity created with an STM tip near a surface. Atomic-scale spatial and femtosecond temporal resolutions were obtained from this quantum coherence. The H 2 acts as a two-level system, with its coherent superposition exhibiting extreme sensitivity to the applied electric field and the underlying atomic composition of the copper nitride (Cu 2 N) monolayer islands grown on a Cu(100) surface. We acquired time-resolved images of THz rectification of H 2 over Cu 2 N islands for variable pump-probe delay times to visualize the heterogeneity of the chemical environment at sub-angstrom scale.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Comments on comet shapes and aggregation processes

An important question for a comet mission is whether comet nuclei preserve information clarifying aggregation processes of planetary matter. New observational evidence shows that Trojan asteroids, as a group, display a higher fraction of highly-elongated objects than the belt. More recently evidence has accumulated that comet nuclei, as a group, also display highly-elongated shapes at macro-scale. This evidence comes from the several comets whose nuclear lightcurves or shapes have been well studied. Trojans and comet nuclei share other properties. Both groups have extremely low albedos and reddish-to neutral-black colors typical of asteroids of spectral class D, P, and C. Both groups may have had relatively low collision frequencies. An important problem to resolve with spacecraft imaging is whether these elongated shapes are primordial, or due to evolution of the objects. Two hypotheses that might be tested by a combination of global-scale and close-up imaging from various directions are: (1) The irregular shapes are primordial and related to the fact that these bodies have had lower collision frequencies than belt asteroids; or (2) The irregular shapes may be due to volatile loss.

Hartmann, William K.↗