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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Method for Spatiotemporal Solar Power Profile Estimation for a Proposed U.S.–Caribbean–South America Super Grid under Hurricanes

Solar photovoltaic (PV) generation technology stands out as a scalable and cost-effective solution to enable the transition toward decarbonization. However, PV solar output, beyond the daily solar irradiance variability and unavailability during nights, is very sensitive to weather events like hurricanes. Hurricanes nucleate massive amounts of clouds around their centers, shading hundreds of kilometers in their path, reducing PV power output. This research proposes a spatiotemporal method, implemented in MATLAB R2023b coding, to estimate the shading effect of hurricanes over a wide distribution of PV solar plants connected to a high-voltage power infrastructure called the U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid. The complete interconnection of the U.S., the Caribbean, and South America results in the lowest power valley levels, i.e., an overall percentual reduction in PV power output caused by hurricane shading. The simulations assess the impact of hurricanes in 10 synthetic trajectories spanning from Texas to Florida. The Caribbean would also experience lower power valleys with expanded interconnectivity schemes. The U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid reduces Caribbean variability from 37.8% to 8.9% in the case study. The proposed spatiotemporal method for PV power profile estimation is a valuable tool for future solar power generation expansion, transmission planning, and system design considering the impact of hurricanes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Point Cloud Based Mapping of Understory Shrub Fuel Distribution, Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Relationship to Pyrolysis Gas Emissions on Experimental Prescribed Burns

Forest fires spread via production and combustion of pyrolysis gases in the understory. The goal of the present paper is to understand the spatial location, distribution, and fraction (relative to the overstory) of understory plants, in this case, sparkleberry shrub, namely its degree of understory consumption upon burn, and to search for correlations between the degree of shrub consumption to the composition of emitted pyrolysis gases. Data were collected in situ at seven small experimental prescribed burns at Ft. Jackson, an army base in South Carolina, USA. Using airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map overstory tree crowns and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize understory shrub fuel density, both pre- and postburn estimates of sparkleberry coverage were obtained. Sparkleberry clump polygons were manually digitized from a UAV-derived orthoimage of the understory and intersected with the TLS point cloud-derived rasters of pre- and postburn shrub fuel bulk density; these were compared in relation to overstory crown cover as well as to ground truth. Shrub fuel consumption was estimated from the digitized images; sparkleberry clump distributions were generally found to not correlate well to the overstory tree crowns, suggesting it is shade-tolerant. Moreover, no relationship was found between the magnitude of the fuel consumption and the chemical composition of pyrolysis gases, even though mixing ratios of 25 individual gases were measured.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution Spatio-Temporal Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange in Ice-Wedge Polygon Tundra Using In Situ Sensors and Remote Sensing Data

Land-atmosphere carbon exchange is known to be extremely heterogeneous in arctic ice-wedge polygonal tundra regions. In this study, a Kalman filter-based method was developed to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics of daytime average net ecosystem exchange (NEEday) at 0.5-m resolution over a 550 m by 700 m study site. We integrated multi-scale, multi-type datasets, including normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVIs) obtained from a novel automated mobile sensor system (or tram system) and a greenness index map obtained from airborne imagery. We took advantage of the significant correlations between NDVI and NEEday identified based on flux chamber measurements. The weighted average of the estimated NEEday within the flux-tower footprint agreed with the flux tower data in term of its seasonal dynamics. We then evaluated the spatial variability of the growing season average NEEday, as a function of polygon geomorphic classes; i.e., the combination of polygon types—which are known to present different degradation stages associated with permafrost thaw—and microtopographic features (i.e., troughs, centers and rims). Our study suggests the importance of considering microtopographic features and their spatial coverage in computing spatially aggregated carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Remote Sensing-Based Estimation of Advanced Perennial Grass Biomass Yields for Bioenergy

A sustainable bioeconomy would require growing high-yielding bioenergy crops on marginal agricultural areas with minimal inputs. To determine the cost competitiveness and environmental sustainability of such production systems, reliably estimating biomass yield is critical. However, because marginal areas are often small and spread across the landscape, yield estimation using traditional approaches is costly and time-consuming. This paper demonstrates the (1) initial investigation of optical remote sensing for predicting perennial bioenergy grass yields at harvest using a linear regression model with the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and (2) evaluation of the model’s performance using data from five U.S. Midwest field sites. The linear regression model using midsummer GNDVI predicted yields at harvest with R2 as high as 0.879 and a mean absolute error and root mean squared error as low as 0.539 Mg/ha and 0.616 Mg/ha, respectively, except for the establishment year. Perennial bioenergy grass yields may be predicted 152 days before the harvest date on average, except for the establishment year. The green spectral band showed a greater contribution for predicting yields than the red band, which is indicative of increased chlorophyll content during the early growing season. Although additional testing is warranted, this study showed a great promise for a remote sensing approach for forecasting perennial bioenergy grass yields to support critical economic and logistical decisions of bioeconomy stakeholders.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating NDVI-Based Within-Wetland Vegetation Classification in a Land Surface Model Improves Methane Emission Estimations

Earth system models (ESMs) are a common tool for estimating local and global greenhouse gas emissions under current and projected future conditions. Efforts are underway to expand the representation of wetlands in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) by resolving the simultaneous contributions to greenhouse gas fluxes from multiple, different, sub-grid-scale patch-types, representing different eco-hydrological patches within a wetland. However, for this effort to be effective, it should be coupled with the detection and mapping of within-wetland eco-hydrological patches in real-world wetlands, providing models with corresponding information about vegetation cover. In this short communication, we describe the application of a recently developed NDVI-based method for within-wetland vegetation classification on a coastal wetland in Louisiana and the use of the resulting yearly vegetation cover as input for ELM simulations. Processed Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) datasets were used to drive the sub-grid composition of simulated wetland vegetation each year, thus tracking the spatial heterogeneity of wetlands at sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions and providing necessary input for improving the estimation of methane emissions from wetlands. Our results show that including NDVI-based classification in an ELM reduced the uncertainty in predicted methane flux by decreasing the model’s RMSE when compared to Eddy Covariance measurements, while a minimal bias was introduced due to the resampling technique involved in processing HLS data. Our study shows promising results in integrating the remote sensing-based classification of within-wetland vegetation cover into earth system models, while improving their performances toward more accurate predictions of important greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the Ultraviolet Emission of M Dwarfs with Exoplanets from Ca ii and Hα

M dwarf stars are excellent candidates around which to search for exoplanets, including temperate, Earth-sized planets. To evaluate the photochemistry of the planetary atmosphere, it is essential to characterize the UV spectral energy distribution of the planet’s host star. This wavelength regime is important because molecules in the planetary atmosphere such as oxygen and ozone have highly wavelength-dependent absorption cross sections that peak in the UV (900–3200 Å). We seek to provide a broadly applicable method of estimating the UV emission of an M dwarf, without direct UV data, by identifying a relationship between noncontemporaneous optical and UV observations. Our work uses the largest sample of M dwarf star far- and near-UV observations yet assembled. We evaluate three commonly observed optical chromospheric activity indices—Hα equivalent widths and log{sub 10} L Hα /L bol , and the Mount Wilson Ca ii H&K S and R HK ' indices—using optical spectra from the HARPS, UVES, and HIRES archives and new HIRES spectra. Archival and new Hubble Space Telescope COS and STIS spectra are used to measure line fluxes for the brightest chromospheric and transition region emission lines between 1200 and 2800 Å. Our results show a correlation between UV emission-line luminosity normalized to the stellar bolometric luminosity and Ca ii R HK ' with standard deviations of 0.31–0.61 dex (factors of ~2–4) about the best-fit lines. We also find correlations between normalized UV line luminosity and Hα log 10 L Hα /L bol and the S index. These relationships allow one to estimate the average UV emission from M0 to M9 dwarfs when UV data are not available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Optical Overview of Blazars with LAMOST. I. Hunting Changing-look Blazars and New Redshift Estimates

The extragalactic γ-rays sky observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) is dominated by blazars. In the fourth release of the Fermi LAT Point Source Catalog (4FGL) are sources showing a multifrequency behavior similar to that of blazars but lacking an optical spectroscopic confirmation of their nature, known as blazar candidates of uncertain type (BCUs). We aim at confirming the blazar nature of BCUs and test if new optical spectroscopic observations can reveal spectral features, allowing us to get a redshift estimate for known BL Lac objects. We also aim to search for and discover changing-look blazars (i.e., blazars that show a different classification at different epochs). We carry out an extensive search for optical spectra available in the Large Sky Area Multi-object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) Data Release 5 (DR5) archive. We select sources out of the 4FGL catalog, the list of targets from our follow-up spectroscopic campaign of unidentified or unassociated γ-ray sources, and the multifrequency catalog of blazars: the Roma-BZCAT. We select a total of 392 spectra. We also compare some of the LAMOST spectra with those available in the literature. We classify 20 BCUs confirming their blazar-like nature. Then we obtain 15 new redshift estimates for known blazars. We discover 26 transitional (i.e., changing-look) blazars that changed their classification. Finally, we are able to confirm the blazar-like nature of six BL Lac candidates. All remaining sources analyzed agree with previous classifications. BL Lac objects are certainly the most elusive type of blazars in the γ-ray extragalactic sky.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photometric Study and Absolute Parameter Estimation of Six Totally Eclipsing Contact Binaries

High precision CCD observations of six totally eclipsing contact binaries were presented and analyzed. It is found that only one target is an A-type contact binary (V429 Cam), while the others are W-type contact ones. By analyzing the times of light minima, we discovered that two of them exhibit secular period increase while three manifest long-term period decrease. For V1033 Her, a cyclic variation superimposed on the long-term increase was discovered. By comparing the Gaia distances with those calculated by the absolute parameters of 173 contact binaries, we found that the Gaia distance can be applied to estimate the absolute parameters for most contact binaries. The absolute parameters of our six targets were estimated using their Gaia distances. The evolutionary status of contact binaries was studied, and we found that the A- and W-subtype contact binaries may have different formation channels. The relationship between the spectroscopic and photometric mass ratios for 101 contact binaries was presented. It was discovered that the photometric mass ratios are in good agreement with the spectroscopic ones for almost all of the totally eclipsing systems, which is corresponding to the results derived by Pribulla et al. and Terrell & Wilson.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Archetype-based Redshift Estimation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Survey

We present a computationally efficient galaxy archetype-based redshift estimation and spectral classification method for the Dark Energy Survey Instrument (DESI) survey. The DESI survey currently relies on a redshift fitter and spectral classifier using a linear combination of principal component analysis–derived templates, which is very efficient in processing large volumes of DESI spectra within a short time frame. However, this method occasionally yields unphysical model fits for galaxies and fails to adequately absorb calibration errors that may still be occasionally visible in the reduced spectra. Our proposed approach improves upon this existing method by refitting the spectra with carefully generated physical galaxy archetypes combined with additional terms designed to absorb data reduction defects and provide more physical models to the DESI spectra. We test our method on an extensive data set derived from the survey validation (SV) and Year 1 (Y1) data of DESI. Our findings indicate that the new method delivers marginally better redshift success for SV tiles while reducing catastrophic redshift failure by 10%–30%. At the same time, results from millions of targets from the main survey show that our model has relatively higher redshift success and purity rates (0.5%–0.8% higher) for galaxy targets while having similar success for QSOs. These improvements also demonstrate that the main DESI redshift pipeline is generally robust. Additionally, it reduces the false-positive redshift estimation by 5%–40% for sky fibers. We also discuss the generic nature of our method and how it can be extended to other large spectroscopic surveys, along with possible future improvements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bolide Infrasound Signal Morphology and Yield Estimates: A Case Study of Two Events Detected by a Dense Acoustic Sensor Network

Two bolides (2016 June 2 and 2019 April 4) were detected at multiple regional infrasound stations, with many of the locations receiving multiple detections. Analysis of the received signals was used to estimate the yield, location, and trajectory, as well as the type of shock that produced the received signal. The results from the infrasound analysis were compared with ground-truth information that was collected through other sensing modalities. This multimodal framework offers an expanded perspective on the processes governing bolide shock generation and propagation. The majority of signal features showed reasonable agreement between the infrasound-based interpretation and the other observational modalities, though the yield estimate from the 2019 bolide was significantly lower using the infrasound detections. There was also evidence suggesting that one of the detections was from a cylindrical shock that was initially propagating upward, which is unusual though not impossible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Twins Embedding of Type Ia Supernovae. II. Improving Cosmological Distance Estimates

We show how spectra of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at maximum light can be used to improve cosmological distance estimates. In a companion article, we used manifold learning to build a three-dimensional parameterization of the intrinsic diversity of SNe Ia at maximum light that we call the "Twins Embedding."In this article, we discuss how the Twins Embedding can be used to improve the standardization of SNe Ia. With a single spectrophotometrically calibrated spectrum near maximum light, we can standardize our sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.101 0.007 mag, which corresponds to 0.084 0.009 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed and to 0.073 0.008 mag if a larger reference sample were obtained. Our techniques can standardize the full range of SNe Ia, including those typically labeled as peculiar and often rejected from other analyses. We find that traditional light-curve width + color standardization such as SALT2 is not sufficient. The Twins Embedding identifies a subset of SNe Ia, including, but not limited to, 91T-like SNe Ia whose SALT2 distance estimates are biased by 0.229 0.045 mag. Standardization using the Twins Embedding also significantly decreases host-galaxy correlations. We recover a host mass step of 0.040 0.020 mag compared to 0.092 0.026 mag for SALT2 standardization on the same sample of SNe Ia. These biases in traditional standardization methods could significantly impact future cosmology analyses if not properly taken into account.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Core Mass Estimates in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: A Comparison between Masses Obtained from Detailed Lens Models, Single-halo Lens Models, and Einstein Radii

The core mass of galaxy clusters is both an important anchor of the radial mass distribution profile and probe of structure formation. With thousands of strong lensing galaxy clusters being discovered by current and upcoming surveys, timely, efficient, and accurate core mass estimates are needed. Here, we assess the results of two efficient methods to estimate the core mass of strong lensing clusters: the mass enclosed by the Einstein radius (M(<θ E ) where θ E is approximated from arc positions; Remolina González et al. 2020), and single-halo lens model (M SHM ; Remolina González et al. 2021), against measurements from publicly available detailed lens models (M DLM ) of the same clusters. We use data from the Sloan Giant Arc Survey, the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey, the Hubble Frontier Fields, and the Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble. We find a scatter of 18.2% (8.2%) with a bias of -7.1% (1.0%) between M corr (<θ arcs ) (M SHM ) and M DLM . Last, we compare the statistical uncertainties measured in this work to those from simulations. This work demonstrates the successful application of these methods to observational data. As the effort to efficiently model the mass distribution of strong lensing galaxy clusters continues, we need fast, reliable methods to advance the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Estimation of Large-scale Structure and Milky Way Dust Extinction from Galaxy Surveys

The high cosmological precision offered by the next generation of galaxy surveys hinges on improved corrections for Galactic dust extinction. We explore the possibility of estimating both the dust extinction and large-scale structure from a single photometric galaxy survey, making use of the predictable manner in which Milky Way dust affects the measured brightness and colors of galaxies in a given sky location in several redshift bins. To test our method, we use a synthetic catalog from a cosmological simulation designed to model the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. At high Galactic latitude (|b| ≳ 20°) and a resolution of 1° (7'), we predict the uncertainty in the measurement of dust extinction, E(B - V), to be 0.005 mag (0.015 mag). This is similar to the uncertainty of existing dust maps, illustrating the feasibility of our method. Simultaneous estimation of large-scale structure is predicted to recover the galaxy overdensity δ with a precision of ~0.01 (~0.05) at 1° (7') resolution. Finally, we also introduce a Bayesian formalism that combines prior information from existing dust maps with the likelihood of Galactic dust extinction determined from the excursion of observed galaxy properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the NiCu Cycle Strength and Its Impact on Type I X-Ray Bursts

Abstract Type I X-ray bursts (XRBs) are powered by thermonuclear burning on proton-rich unstable nuclides. The construction of burst models with accurate knowledge of nuclear physics is required to properly interpret burst observations. Numerous studies that have investigated the sensitivities of burst models to nuclear inputs have commonly extracted the strength of the NiCu cycle in the rp process, determined by the 59 Cu( p , α ) 56 Ni and 59 Cu( p , γ ) 60 Zn thermonuclear reaction rates, as critical in the determination of reaction flow in the burst. In this study, the strength of the cycle at the XRB temperature range was estimated based on published experimental data. The nuclear properties of the compound nucleus 60 Zn were evaluated for the 59 Cu( p , α ) 56 Ni and 59 Cu( p , γ ) 60 Zn reaction rate calculations. Monte Carlo rate calculations were conducted to include the large uncertainties of nuclear properties in the calculations. In the current work, a weak NiCu cycle is expected, whereas the rates adopted by the previous studies suggest a strong NiCu cycle. Model simulations were performed with the new rates to assess the impact on Type I XRBs. The results show that the estimated cycle strength does not strongly influence the model predictions of the burst light curve or synthesized abundances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Radius of PSR J0740+6620 from NICER with NICER Background Estimates

We report a revised analysis for the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, studied previously with joint fits to NICER and XMM-Newton data by Riley et al. (2021) and Miller et al. (2021). We perform a similar Bayesian estimation for the pulse-profile model parameters, except that instead of fitting simultaneously the XMM-Newton data, we use the best available NICER background estimates to constrain the number of photons detected from the source. This approach eliminates any potential issues in the cross-calibration between these two instruments, providing thus an independent check of the robustness of the analysis. The obtained neutron star parameter constraints are compatible with the already published results, with a slight dependence on how conservative the imposed background limits are. A tighter lower limit causes the inferred radius to increase, and a tighter upper limit causes it to decrease. We also extend the study of the inferred emission geometry to examine the degree of deviation from antipodality of the hot regions. We show that there is a significant offset to an antipodal spot configuration, mainly due to the non-half-cycle azimuthal separation of the two emitting spots. The offset angle from the antipode is inferred to be above 25° with 84% probability. This seems to exclude a centered-dipolar magnetic field in PSR J0740+6620.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BICEP/Keck. XVII. Line-of-sight Distortion Analysis: Estimates of Gravitational Lensing, Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence, Patchy Reionization, and Systematic Errors

We present estimates of line-of-sight distortion fields derived from the 95 and 150 GHz data taken by BICEP2, BICEP3, and the Keck Array up to the 2018 observing season, leading to cosmological constraints and a study of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. Cosmological constraints are derived from three of the distortion fields concerning gravitational lensing from large-scale structure, polarization rotation from magnetic fields or an axion-like field, and the screening effect of patchy reionization. We measure an amplitude of the lensing power spectrum ${A}_{L}^{\phi \phi }=0.95\pm 0.20$. We constrain polarization rotation, expressed as the coupling constant of a Chern–Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 2.6 × 10 -2 /H I , where H I is the inflationary Hubble parameter, and an amplitude of primordial magnetic fields smoothed over 1 Mpc B 1Mpc ≤ 6.6 nG at 95 GHz. We constrain the rms of optical depth fluctuations in a simple "crinkly surface" model of patchy reionization, finding A τ < 0.19 (2σ) for the coherence scale of L c = 100. We show that all of the distortion fields of the 95 and 150 GHz polarization maps are consistent with simulations including lensed ΛCDM, dust, and noise, with no evidence for instrumental systematics. In some cases, the EB and TB quadratic estimators presented here are more sensitive than our previous map-based null tests at identifying and rejecting spurious B-modes that might arise from instrumental effects. Finally, we verify that the standard deprojection filtering in the BICEP/Keck data processing is effective at removing temperature to polarization leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on the Dense Matter Equation of State and Neutron Star Properties from NICER’s Mass–Radius Estimate of PSR J0740+6620 and Multimessenger Observations

In recent years our understanding of the dense matter equation of state (EOS) of neutron stars has significantly improved by analyzing multimessenger data from radio/X-ray pulsars, gravitational wave events, and from nuclear physics constraints. Here we study the additional impact on the EOS from the jointly estimated mass and radius of PSR J0740+6620, presented in Riley et al. by analyzing a combined data set from X-ray telescopes NICER and XMM-Newton. We employ two different high-density EOS parameterizations: a piecewise-polytropic (PP) model and a model based on the speed of sound in a neutron star (CS). Here, at nuclear densities these are connected to microscopic calculations of neutron matter based on chiral effective field theory (EFT) interactions. In addition to the new NICER data for this heavy neutron star, we separately study constraints from the radio timing mass measurement of PSR J0740+6620, the gravitational wave events of binary neutron stars GW190425 and GW170817, and for the latter the associated kilonova AT2017gfo. By combining all these, and the NICER mass-radius estimate of PSR J0030+0451, we find the radius of a 1.4 M ⊙ neutron star to be constrained to the 95% credible ranges 12.33$^{+0.76}_{–0.81}$km (PP model) and 12.18$^{+0.56}_{–0.79}$km (CS model). In addition, we explore different chiral EFT calculations and show that the new NICER results provide tight constraints for the pressure of neutron star matter at around twice saturation density, which shows the power of these observations to constrain dense matter interactions at intermediate densities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗