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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Throughput Measurements and Capacity Estimates for Quantum Connections

The throughput of conventional and quantum network connections is an important performance metric, which is typically specified by bits per second (bps) and entangled quntum bits per second (ebps), respectively. It is measured over practical quantum network connections using specialized methods, and estimated using analytical bounds for which extensive theory has been developed. For practical connections, however, these two quantities have often been hard to correlate due to the lack of measurements and estimates derived under well-characterized common conditions. They both differ significantly from the conventional network throughput of TCP which employs buffers and loss recovery mechanisms. We describe a conventional-quantum testbed that enables the comparison of these two quantities both qualitatively and quantitatively. The bps and ebps throughput is measured over fiber connections of lengths over 75 kilometers, which show that the former decreases significantly slower with distance than the latter and in a qualitatively different way. The analytic capacity estimates of ebps are derived using approximations based on light intensity measurements, and they decrease more rapidly with distance than the measured ebps throughput. These results provide qualitative insights into the conventional transport mechanisms based on buffers, and the conditions used in deriving the analytical ebps capacity estimates.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supervised Learning-Based Spatial Position Estimation with Vertical Displacement for Hovering UAV Wireless Power Transfer

This study presents a supervised learning-based spatial position estimation approach for wireless power transfer (WPT) systems supporting hovering unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) charging. Unlike stationary charging scenarios, hovering UAVs introduce continuous lateral misalignment and vertical displacement, leading to variations in magnetic coupling and reduced power transfer efficiency. To address this challenge, the proposed method estimates the relative spatial position of the receiver coil using only electrical measurements obtained at the secondary side. A supervised learning model is trained to map output voltage and current features to spatial coordinates, enabling position awareness without requiring external sensors, vision systems, or communication links. The sensing functionality is inherently integrated into the WPT system, allowing simultaneous power transfer and localization through the same magnetic interface. Experimental validation is conducted on a laboratory-scale prototype under varying lateral offsets and air-gap conditions. In addition, spline-based interpolation is employed to increase spatial data density for training. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can capture spatial variations associated with both lateral and vertical displacement, providing reliable position estimation under hovering conditions. This work establishes a hardware-efficient, sensorless solution for UAV wireless charging and serves as a baseline for advanced data-driven position estimation methods in dynamic WPT systems.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local Power-Voltage Sensitivity and Thevenin Impedance Estimation from Phasor Measurements

This paper describes how to use voltage phasor measurements to produce a sensitivity matrix that describes how real and reactive power injections at a node on a distribution network affect the local voltage magnitude and angle. Rather than estimating the sensitivity directly, the voltage phasor measurements and power commands/measurements are used to estimate the unbalanced, three-phase Thevenin impedance. The Thevenin impedance estimation is conducted using recursive least squares on temporal difference measurements. The Thevenin impedance and voltage phasor measurement are then used to build the local power-voltage sensitivity matrix with the closed form expression for the Jacobian of the power flow manifold. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations with phasor measurement units providing real phasor measurements are used to evaluate the recursive temporal difference Thevenin impedance estimation and Thevenin-based power-voltage sensitivity methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Entanglement Capacity Estimates and Throughput Measurements of Quantum Channels

The throughput is an important performance metric of entangled qubit distribution quantum networks, and may be characterized by the number of distributed entangled qubit pairs per second (ebps). It is measured over physical quantum network connections using specialized instruments, including photonic entanglement sources and single photon detectors. Extensive theory has been developed to estimate the entangled qubit capacity of quantum channels using abstractions of physical connections. These two quantities both characterize the throughput performance but in different ways, and typically have been hard to relate to each other in concrete terms, in part due to the lack of precise measurements with matching analytical models and derivations. We describe measurements on a physical testbed with fiber connections of lengths 0-75 kilometers. We obtain the normalized analytic capacity estimates using the transmissivity approximations derived using single photon coincidence measurements, and convert them to bounds on throughput (measured in ebps) using a multiplier derived from co-located detector measurements. The results indicate consistent throughput measurements upper-bounded by their analytical capacity estimates across all connections. We show that previous capacity estimates using light measurements are below ebps measurements for some connections, due to the inclusion of non-representative decrease of light levels outside C-band with distance.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single–Well Injection–Drift Test to Estimate Groundwater Velocity

A simple algebraic equation is presented here to estimate the magnitude of groundwater velocity based on data from a single-well injection-drift test thereby eliminating the time-consuming and costly extraction phase. A volume of tracer-amended water was injected by forced-gradient into a single well followed by monitoring of the conservative solute tracers under natural-gradient conditions as their upgradient portions drifted back through the well. The breakthrough curve data from the single well during the drift phase was analyzed to determine the mean travel times of the tracers. The estimated mean upgradient travel distance back through the single well and the mean travel times of the tracers were used in a simple algebraic equation to estimate groundwater velocity. The groundwater velocity based on the single-well injection-drift test was estimated to be approximately 0.64 ft per day. Two transects of observation wells were used to monitor the natural-gradient tracer transport downgradient of the injection well. The one-dimensional, or dual-well, transport of the tracer from the injection well to the nearest downgradient observation well indicated that the groundwater velocity was 0.55 ft per day. The two-dimensional, or multi-well, transport of the center of mass of the tracers indicated that the groundwater velocity was 0.60 ft per day; the dual- and multi-well results were in excellent agreement with those from the single-well and validated the simple algebraic equation. In conclusion, the new single-well method presented here is relatively simple, rapid, and does not require an extraction phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the Water Table Position in Unconfined Aquifers with MODFLOW 6

Abstract The numerical estimation of the position of the water table in unconfined aquifers is important for many practical applications. Its determination through observations or analytical methods is restricted to a few cases. Therefore, it is often estimated through numerical simulations, which may be affected by numerical artifacts and/or poor stability. We use MODFLOW to estimate the position of the water table for a seemingly simple example problem and demonstrate difficulties that can be faced when performing this kind of numerical simulation. We explain the causes for the numerical challenges that originate from the properties of the mathematical equations that must be solved. Based on the results of more than 600 steady‐state simulations, we show how the stability of the numerical solution can be affected by the values of physical parameters that define the problem (e.g., recharge rate, anisotropy ratio, and other parameters that control the numerical algorithm such as settings of the linear and nonlinear solution methods). Finally, we comment on some best practices to apply numerical simulations to estimate the water table position.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Estimating Hydrogen Fuel Tank Characteristics

The pressure vessels needed to store hydrogen for next-generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are expected to be a substantial portion of the total system mass, volume, and cost. Gravimetric capacity, volumetric capacity, and cost per kilogram of usable hydrogen are key performance metrics that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses to determine the viability of hydrogen fuel cell systems. Research and development related to hydrogen storage systems covers a wide range of potential operating conditions, from cryogenic temperatures to high temperatures (above ambient) and low pressure to high pressure. Researchers at PNNL have developed methods for estimating these key pressure vessel characteristics to support on-board hydrogen storage system design and performance evaluation and to support decision-making about DOE hydrogen storage system research investments. This article describes the pressure tank estimation methodology that has been used as a stand-alone calculation and has been incorporated into larger system evaluation tools. The methodology estimates the geometry, mass, and material cost of type I, type III, and type IV pressure vessels based on operating pressure and material strength at the system's operating temperature, using classical thin-wall and thick-wall pressure vessel stress calculations. The geometry, mass, and material cost requirements of the pressure vessel have significant impacts on the total system performance. For example, hydrogen storage materials that can separately achieve a very high hydrogen density can be deemed impractical for use in fuel cell vehicle hydrogen storage systems because the pressure tank containing them is too large, heavy, or expensive. This article describes the design philosophy and analytical process of the tank characteristic estimation methodology, which has been implemented in spreadsheet calculation tools and system-level analysis tools used by DOE researchers. Each of the three tank types (type I, type III, and type IV) uses a different analysis methodology with some common elements. This article also provides examples of implementing the methodology to perform parametric studies of all three pressure vessel types. The goal of this article is to present the methodology in sufficient detail so it can be implemented in other hydrogen fuel cell vehicle design and analysis tools.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

RESULTS OF A VIRTUAL ROUND ROBIN STUDY TO ESTIMATE PROBABILITY OF DETECTION FOR DISSIMILAR METAL WELDS

This paper presents efforts to overcome challenges with empirical probability of detection (POD) estimations in the nuclear power industry through the utilization of a novel virtual flaw method. A virtual round robin (VRR) study was conducted under the Program for Investigation Of NDE by International Collaboration (PIONIC), organized by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) utilizing data generated by the virtual flaw method. Analysis of results from the VRR was performed by teams from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Aalto University. Empirically derived POD estimations are presented, and challenges associated with obtaining these estimations are discussed. The virtual flaw method is introduced and some details of its implementation for the VRR activity are described. Results from POD analysis of the VRR data by PNNL, EPRI, and Aalto University are presented and a discussion regarding differences in analysis results is provided. Finally, potential future efforts to improve the application of the virtual flaw method and its estimation of POD are discussed.

Probability of detection, Dissimilar Metal Weld, P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast estimation of the look-elsewhere effect using Gaussian random fields

Abstract We discuss the use of Gaussian random fields to estimate the look-elsewhere effect correction. We show that Gaussian random fields can be used to model the null-hypothesis significance maps from a large set of statistical problems commonly encountered in physics, such as template matching and likelihood ratio tests. Some specific examples are searches for dark matter using pixel arrays, searches for astronomical transients, and searches for fast-radio bursts. Gaussian random fields can be sampled efficiently in the frequency domain, and the excursion probability can be fitted with these samples to extend any estimation of the look-elsewhere effect to lower p values. In addition, in cases where the Gaussian random field is stationary and the parameter space is Euclidean, the look-elsewhere effect correction can be computed analytically. We demonstrate these methods using two example template matching problems. Finally, we apply these methods to estimate the trial factor of a $$4^3$$ 4 3 accelerometer array for the detection of dark matter tracks in the Windchime project. When a global significance of $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ is required, the estimated trial factor for such an accelerometer array is $$10^{14}$$ 10 14 for a one-second search, and $$10^{22}$$ 10 22 for a 1-year search.

Qin, Juehang (ORCID:0000000182288949)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter Estimation for Electrode Degradation: Learning in the Face of Model-Experiment Discrepancies

Use of physics-based models to interpret battery degradation data over the course of cycling can provide deeper physical insight into the internal states of the system and how they evolve. We present a neural network trained on simulations generated by a previously published physics-based model for a lithium trivanadate (LVO) cathode to estimate parameters that evolve over the course of cycling. We focus on the robustness of the neural network through two case studies that probe different kinds of discrepancies between model and experiment: nonideal data and imperfect model. In the former, the experimental protocols do not meet the assumption made in the training data generated by the physics-based model, while in the latter, the physics-based model fails to describe all of the measured cathode behavior even under ideal conditions. When there is total model-experiment agreement, a neural network estimates parameters with improved accuracy compared to a maximum likelihood analysis using the same set of simulations. However, in both types of model-experiment discrepancy, the neural network returned biased parameter estimates. We introduce a data augmentation procedure into the neural network training to mitigate these effects and improve robustness, and employ it to estimate parameters for a cycling LVO cathode.

Mayilvahanan, Karthik S. (ORCID:0000000316282332)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Master State Distributed Estimator (masde)

The MSE technology provides a distributed state estimation scheme for power utilities by making it a real time dynamic system, versus the static snapshot method used today. This will allow utilities to verify power grid readings and identify false data on the communication network. The prevailing method of estimation takes all the data from the system into a single load flow equation at the utilities command center. This becomes a large algorithm that is very time consuming to solve, providing the engineers only snap shots of the system. The MFD distributes an algorithm to devises that are already installed at various locations on the power grid. This allows for much faster computer times because the algorithms contain magnitudes less data. When each distributed estimator completes its calculation, it sends the results back to the master device to check against all other distributed estimators.

Reen, DylanW.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Technique for Estimating Liquid Droplet Diameter and Liquid Water Content in Stratocumulus Clouds Using Radar and Lidar Measurements

This paper describes a technique for estimating the liquid water content (LWC) and a characteristic particle diameter in stratocumulus clouds using radar and lidar observations. The uncertainty in LWC estimate from radar and lidar measurements is significantly reduced once the characteristic particle diameter is known. The technique is independent of the drop size distribution. It is applicable for a broad range of W-band reflectivity Z between -30 and 0 dBZ and all values of lidar backscatter β observations. No partitioning of cloud or drizzle is required on the basis of an arbitrary threshold of Z as in prior studies. A method for estimating droplet diameter and LWC was derived from the electromagnetic simulations of radar and lidar observations. In situ stratocumulus cloud and drizzle probe spectra were input to the electromagnetic simulation. The retrieved droplet diameter and LWC were validated using in situ measurements from the southeastern Pacific Ocean. The retrieval method was applied to radar and lidar measurements from the northeastern Pacific. Uncertainty in the retrieved droplet diameter and LWC that are due to the measurement errors in radar and lidar backscatter measurements are 7% and 14%, respectively. The retrieved LWC was validated using the concurrent G-band radiometer estimates of the liquid water path.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Arrivals on Green at Signalized Intersections Using Stop-Bar Video Detection

Across the world, traffic congestion is increasing with alarming rapidity. Traffic signal control effectiveness, in coordinated networks, is often investigated in relation to the type of vehicle arrivals at the signalized intersections. Recently, several transportation agencies have switched from traditional loop detectors to video detection. When video cameras are accompanied by computer vision, one can extract more information about traffic “dynamics” than by using traditional inductive loop detectors. Collecting arrival times of multiple vehicles after the first arrival at the stop-bar detector might be challenging when using inductive loop detectors (since after the first arrival, detector status is always occupied). However, emerging video detection systems allow tracking of each vehicle’s entrance time in the detection zone, departure time from the detection zone, and the type of vehicle. This information can be used to estimate vehicular arrival and departure times, which then can be fed into machine learning algorithms to estimate arrivals on green (AOG). However, such research ideas have not been documented so far. Thus, this paper presents an estimation model for AOG, which was developed using multigene genetic programming. A robust experimental dataset was collected from a highly calibrated and validated microsimulation model of an 11-intersection corridor in Chattanooga, TN. The results of the model’s performance analysis showed the high accuracy of the training-, testing-, and validation datasets. The practical benefit of this model is that it can be applied to estimate arrival types at intersections where only stop-bar video detection exists.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering a modular 44 Ti/ 44 Sc generator: eluate evaluation in preclinical models and estimation of human radiation dosimetry

Background: 44 Sc/ 47 Sc is an attractive theranostic pair for targeted in vivo positron emission tomographic (PET) imaging and beta-particle treatment of cancer. The 44 Ti/ 44 Sc generator allows daily onsite production of this diagnostic isotope, which may provide an attractive alternative for PET facilities that lack in-house irradiation capabilities. Early animal and patient studies have demonstrated the utility of 44 Sc. In our current study, we built and evaluated a novel clinical-scale 44 Ti/ 44 Sc generator, explored the pharmacokinetic profiles of 44 ScCl 3 , [ 44 Sc]-citrate and [ 44 Sc]-NODAGA (1,4,7-triazacyclononane,1-glutaric acid-4,7-acetic acid) in naïve mice, and estimated the radiation burden of 44 ScCl 3 in humans. Methods: 44 Ti/ 44 Sc (101.2 MBq) in 6 M HCl solution was utilized to assemble a modular ZR resin containing generator. After assembly, 44 Sc was eluted with 0.05 M HCl for further PET imaging and biodistribution studies in female Swiss Webster mice. Based on the biodistribution data, absorbed doses of 44 / 47 ScCl 3 in human adults were calculated for 18 organs and tissues using the IDAC-Dose software. Results: 44 Ti in 6 M HCl was loaded onto the organic resin generator with a yield of 99.97%. After loading and initial stabilization, 44 ScCl 3 was eluted with 0.05 M HCl in typical yields of 82.9 ± 5.3% (N = 16), which was normalized to the estimated generator capacity. Estimated generator capacity was computed based on elution time interval and the total amount of 44 Ti loaded on the generator. Run in forward and reverse directions, the 44 Sc/ 44 Ti ratio from a primary column was significantly improved from 1038 ± 440 to 3557 ± 680 (Bq/Bq) when a secondary, replaceable, ZR resin cartridge was employed at the flow outlet. In vivo imaging and ex vivo distribution studies of the reversible modular generator for 44 ScCl 3 , [ 44 Sc]-citrate and [ 44 Sc]-NODAGA show that free 44 Sc remained in the circulation significantly longer than the chelated 44 Sc. The dose estimation of 44 ScCl 3 reveals that the radiation burden is 0.146 mSv/MBq for a 70 kg adult male and 0.179 mSv/MBq for a 57 kg adult female. Liver, spleen and heart wall will receive the highest absorbed dose: 0.524, 0.502, and 0.303 mGy/MBq, respectively, for the adult male. Conclusions: A clinical-scale 44 Ti/ 44 Sc generator system with a modular design was developed to supply 44 ScCl 3 in 0.05 M HCl, which is suitable for further radiolabeling and in vivo use. Our data demonstrated that free 44 ScCl 3 remained in the circulation for extended periods, which resulted in approximately 10 times greater radiation burden than stably chelated 44 Sc. Stable 44 Sc/ 47 Sc-complexation will be more favorable for in vivo use and for clinical utility.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constellation's best estimate alternate source term methodology overview

Safety analyses for a nuclear power plants need to consider postulated accidents that results in at risk of accidental release of radiation. The regulations require plant specific safety analysis reports to include an evaluation of the requirements of 10CFR50.67. Such a safety analysis report mandates limits such that calculated radiological consequences relative to certain dose locations do not exceed a total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) limits following a postulated release of radioactivity. Calculations are performed to estimate the radiological consequences, in terms of dose, to people and equipment to ensure the estimated doses are within the prescribed limits. Analysis should demonstrate, with reasonable assurance, that these prescribed limits are complied with. Conventional methodologies utilize conservative approaches to address lack of uncertainty quantification in the utilized approaches, methods, and/or inputs. These built-in excess conservatisms often result in compounding effects and hence overly conservative results in the estimated radiological consequences, which leads to inaccurate margin evaluation for operation and accident mitigation. Therefore, evaluating accurate dose consequences is needed for both operational and safety reasons. The research documented in this paper provides an overview of Constellation's Best Estimate Alternate Source Term (BEAST) Methodology. BEAST methodology relies upon the use of realistic yet bounding input distributions for key analysis parameters, which replaces use of conservative deterministic singular inputs that bound overall analysis domain. This approach enables evaluating a more accurate accident analysis response, while enabling a bounding licensing basis envelope via more accurate quantification of uncertainty in the application. Therefore, built-in margin for a given scenario is more accurately evaluated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool

Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗