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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

General seismology

Seismological instrumentation, earthquake and nuclear explosion detection, and engineering construction applications

RECORDING INSTRUMENT↗

On the Derivation of Coseismic Displacement Fields Using Differential Radar Interferometry: The Landers Eartquake

We present a map of the coseismic displacement field resulting from the Landers, CA, June 28, 1992 earthquake derived using data acquired from an orbiting high resolution radar system. We achieve results more accurate than previous space studies and similar in accuracy to those obtained by conventional field survey techniques. Data from the ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar instrument acquired in April, July, and August 1992 are used to generate a high resolution, wide area map of the displacements.

Landers earthquake high resolution radar system ER↗

Using the GeoFEST Faulted Region Simulation System

GeoFEST (the Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) simulates stress evolution, fault slip and plastic/elastic processes in realistic materials, and so is suitable for earthquake cycle studies in regions such as Southern California. Many new capabilities and means of access for GeoFEST are now supported. New abilities include MPI-based cluster parallel computing using automatic PYRAMID/Parmetis-based mesh partitioning, automatic mesh generation for layered media with rectangular faults, and results visualization that is integrated with remote sensing data. The parallel GeoFEST application has been successfully run on over a half-dozen computers, including Intel Xeon clusters, Itanium II and Altix machines, and the Apple G5 cluster. It is not separately optimized for different machines, but relies on good domain partitioning for load-balance and low communication, and careful writing of the parallel diagonally preconditioned conjugate gradient solver to keep communication overhead low. Demonstrated thousand-step solutions for over a million finite elements on 64 processors require under three hours, and scaling tests show high efficiency when using more than (order of) 4000 elements per processor. The source code and documentation for GeoFEST is available at no cost from Open Channel Foundation. In addition GeoFEST may be used through a browser-based portal environment available to approved users. That environment includes semi-automated geometry creation and mesh generation tools, GeoFEST, and RIVA-based visualization tools that include the ability to generate a flyover animation showing deformations and topography. Work is in progress to support simulation of a region with several faults using 16 million elements, using a strain energy metric to adapt the mesh to faithfully represent the solution in a region of widely varying strain.

Geophyical Finite Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST↗

New Global Characterization of Landslide Exposure

Landslides triggered by intense rainfall are hazards that impact people and infrastructure across the world, but comprehensively quantifying exposure to these hazards remains challenging. Unlike earthquakes or flooding which cover large areas, landslides occur only in highly susceptible parts of a landscape affected by intense rainfall, which may not intersect human settlement or infrastructure. Existing datasets of landslides around the world generally include only those reported to have caused impacts, leading to significant biases toward areas with higher reporting capacity, limiting how our understanding of exposure to landslides in developing countries. In this study, we use an alternative approach to estimate exposure to landslides in a homogenous fashion. We have combined a global landslide hazard proxy derived from satellite data with open-source datasets on population, roads and infrastructure to consistently estimate exposure to rapid landslide hazards around the globe. These exposure models compare favorably with existing datasets of rainfall-triggered landslide fatalities, while filling in major gaps in inventory-based estimates in parts of the world with lower reporting capacity. Our findings provide a global estimate of exposure to landslides from 2001-2019 that we suggest may be useful to disaster mitigation professionals.

earthquakes↗

Coseismic Excitation of the Earth's Polar Motion

Apart from the shaking near the epicenter that is the earthquake, a seismic event creates a permanent field of dislocation in the entire Earth. This redistribution of mass changes (slightly) the Earth's interia tensor; and the Earth's rotation will change in accordance with the conservation of angular momentum.

Earth↗

(abstract) Recent Developments in Active Microwave Systems at JPL

This paper provides an overview of some of the recent developments in active microwave systems at JPL. The first section summarizes the engineering and scientific results that were obtained from the two recent flights of the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) on the Shuttle Endeavor. Specific examples of the applications of these data to various scientific disciplines will be discussed. The second section of the paper describes the recent progress in the development of an interferometric SAR system for high-resolution digital topography mapping. Examples of measurements from this technique over areas with earthquakes will be shown. The final section of the paper addresses development of meteorological radars for rain and cloud measurements. The design of an airborne rain mapping radar that was developed to support the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission is summarized. The technical design challenges for this high-frequency radar system will be described.

radar↗

Systematic Detection of Anomalous Ionospheric Perturbations Above LEOs From GNSS POD Data Including Possible Tsunami Signatures

In this article, we show the capability of a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) precise orbit determination (POD) low Earth orbit (LEO) data to detect anomalous ionospheric disturbances in the spectral range of the signals associated with earthquakes and tsunamis, applied to two of these events in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands during 2016. This is achieved thanks to the new PIES approach (POD-GNSS LEO Detrended Ionospheric Electron Content Significant Deviations). The significance of such ionospheric signals above the swarm LEOs is confirmed with different types of independent data: in situ electron density measurements provided by the Langmuir Probe (LP) onboard swarm LEOs, DORIS, and ground-based GNSS colocated measurements, as it is described in this article. In this way, we conclude the possible detection of the tsunami-related ionospheric gravity wave in PNG 2016 event, consistent with the most-recent theory, which shows that a tsunami (which is localized in space and time) excites a spectrum of gravity waves, some of which have faster horizontal phase speeds than the tsunami. We believe that this work shows as well the feasibility of a future potential monitoring system of ionospheric disturbances, to be made possible by hundreds of CubeSats with POD GNSS receivers among other appropriate sensors, and supported for real-time or near real-time confirmation and characterization by thousands of worldwide existing ground GNSS receivers.

Global Navigation Satellite System↗

Validation of (not-historical) large-event near-fault ground-motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground-motion simulations generated from physics-based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance-based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground-motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four-step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near-field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M w 7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near-field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse-like near-field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA-W2 GMPEs. Lastly, the proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground-motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Verification of numerical models for seismic fluid-structure interaction analysis of internal components in liquid-filled advanced reactors

Earthquake shaking of a liquid-filled advanced reactor induces fluid-structure interaction (FSI) between the reactor vessel (tank), its internal components, and the contained liquid. Seismic design, qualification, and risk assessment of such reactors must consider fluid-structure responses, their geometries and support conditions, and three-directional seismic inputs, all of which require numerical simulations. Numerical models used for analysis of safety-related nuclear equipment must be verified and validated. Here, this paper verifies numerical models of submerged components using analytical solutions. Seismic FSI analysis of the numerical models is performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICFD) solvers in LS-DYNA. Prior analytical solutions are reworked in this paper, and calculation errors are identified and corrected. The solutions address frequencies of two concentric cylindrical pipes filled with liquid: the inner pipe is a submerged component, and the outer pipe contains the liquid. A unitless frequency coefficient is defined and presented for pipes of different materials, filled with different liquids, and with a range of dimensions for application to advanced reactors. The numerical models are verified here by comparing the lateral frequencies of submerged components with those calculated using the corrected analytical solutions. Recommendations for verification of numerical models of internal components in advanced reactors for seismic FSI analysis are provided. Although the unitless frequency coefficients and verification procedures are developed for application to advanced nuclear reactors, they are broadly applicable to FSI analysis of submerged components in liquid-filled vessels such as storage tanks, boilers, and steam generators.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

In-situ observation of pre-, co- and post-seismic shear slip at 1.5 km depth

Understanding the initiation and arrest of earthquakes is one of the long-standing challenges of seismology. Here we report on direct observations of borehole displacement by a meter-sized shear rupture induced by pressurization of metamorphic rock at 1.5 km depth. We observed the acceleration of sliding, followed by fast co-seismic slip and transient afterslip. Total displacements were about 7, 5.5 and 9.5 micrometers, respectively for the observed pre-slip, co-seismic slip and afterslip. The observed pre-slip lasted about 0.4 seconds. Co-seismic slip was recorded by the 1 kHz displacement recording and a 12-component array of 3-C accelerometers sampled at 100 kHz. The observed afterslip is consistent with analytical models of arrest in a velocity-strengthening region and subsequent stress relaxation. < p >The observed slip vector agrees with the activation of a bedding plane within the phyllite, which is corroborated by relocated seismic events that were observed during the later stages of the injection experiment.

Schoenball, Martin↗

Quantifying modeling uncertainty in simplified beam models for building response prediction

The use of simple models for response prediction of building structures is preferred in earthquake engineering for risk evaluations at regional scales, as they make computational studies more feasible. The primary impediment in their gainful use presently is the lack of viable methods for quantifying (and reducing upon) the modeling errors/uncertainties they bear. This study presents a Bayesian calibration method wherein the modeling error is embedded into the parameters of the model. Here, the method is specifically described for coupled shear-flexural beam models here, but it can be applied to any parametric surrogate model. The major benefit the method offers is the ability to consider the modeling uncertainty in the forward prediction of any degree-of-freedom or composite response regardless of the data used in calibration. The method is extensively verified using two synthetic examples. In the first example, the beam model is calibrated to represent a similar beam model but with enforced modeling errors. In the second example, the beam model is used to represent the detailed finite element model of a 52-story building. Both examples show the capability of the proposed solution to provide realistic uncertainty estimation around the mean prediction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Increasing risk of cascading hazards in the central Himalayas

Cascading hazards are becoming more prevalent in the central Himalayas. Primary hazards (e.g., earthquakes, avalanches, and landslides) often trigger secondary hazards (e.g., landslide dam, debris flow, and flooding), compounding the risks to human settlements, infrastructures, and ecosystems. Risk management strategies are commonly tailored to a single hazard, leaving human and natural systems vulnerable to cascading hazards. In this commentary, we characterize diverse natural hazards in the central Himalayas, including their cascading mechanisms and potential impacts. A scientifically sound understanding of the cascading hazards, underlying mechanisms, and appropriate tools to account for the compounding risks are crucial to informing the design of risk management strategies. Here, we also discuss the need for an integrated modeling framework, reliable prediction and early warning system, and sustainable disaster mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗