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Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2 , H 2 O 2 , and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3 , and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simulation-based assessment of technologies to reduce heat emissions from buildings

Heat emissions from buildings are part of anthropogenic heat leading to urban overheating. This paper aims to assess how technologies (i.e., energy conservation measures - ECMs), used to decrease energy use, may also reduce heat emissions from buildings. This study employs the physics-based engine EnergyPlus to simulate the main components of heat emissions from buildings to ambient air: envelope, zone, and systems. Hourly simulations are run for IECC single- and multi-family reference models with three representative climates: Miami, Baltimore, and Chicago. The results show that the performance of ECMs varies among weather, seasons, and residential typologies. Particularly, some ECMs (i.e., cool coatings, heat pumps, additional insulation, energy-awareness occupants) show a strong decrease in heat emissions, yet they are not always correlated with proportional decreases in energy use. When all ECMs are combined, the reductions are larger on heat emissions (89%) than on site energy (65%) from the base cases. During summer in Miami, the combination of ECMs shows a decrease in heat emissions from the building surface component of 80% during daytime, 92% for the HVAC component and a counterbalanced increase in the zone component of 88%, bringing to a daily decrease in total heat emissions. The main contributions of this study are quantifying how typical ECMs influence residential building heat emissions using EnergyPlus simulations and informing urban planners and stakeholders on prioritizing measures for mitigating urban overheating problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The role of above-code labeling programs in reducing CO 2 e emissions in residential buildings

Residential buildings account for 15 % of total U.S. carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Voluntary, above-code labeling programs, such as the ENERGY STAR and Zero Energy Ready Home programs, can play a crucial role in reducing the carbon footprint of the new construction residential building sector by encouraging adoption of more energy-efficient and lower emissions building practices and technologies. It's important for the industry to understand the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) and energy cost savings potential of these programs. Here, to estimate the potential CO 2 e emissions savings for homes built to above-code labeling program levels, it is imperative to have reliable and accurate tools for estimating emissions from buildings. The open-source OpenStudio-ERI workflow employs detailed physics-based building energy modeling (BEM) to estimate energy usage and operational CO 2 e emissions. In this study we use the OpenStudio-ERI workflow and regional, time-varying emissions factors from the Cambium database to compare the CO 2 e emissions and energy costs of homes built to performance levels required by these above-code labeling programs relative to homes built to model energy codes. We present the results of our analysis and provide a range of emissions and annual energy cost savings for the above-code labeling programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Long-Term Implications of Alternative Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Primary Energy Demands

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology: with and without emissions pricing, global CO2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.

Light-duty vehicles, Transportation emissions miti↗

Energy use and CO2 emissions of China’s industrial sector from a global perspective

The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China’s final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China’s per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.

China↗

Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Aerosol emissions from water-lean solvents for post-combustion CO 2 capture

Advanced water-lean solvents (WLS) for post-combustion CO 2 capture have been gaining interest due to their ability to reduce the parasitic penalty from energy needed for solvent regeneration. Commercial implementation of these novel CO 2 capture technologies hinges on successful control of amine emissions. RTI conducted a parametric study of fundamental and operational variables influence on overall amine aerosol and vapor emissions from our water-lean solvent eCO 2 Sol™ using our 6-kW equivalent bench-scale gas absorption system. The parametric testing used a simulated flue gas with 15 % CO 2 , 2.3–4.2 % H 2 O, and 0–6 ppm sulfite (SO 3 ) to examine the impact of the presence of aerosols to the capture performance and amine emissions from the system. The SO 3 reacts with water in the flue gas to create H 2 SO 4 , which forms liquid aerosol droplets and provide nucleation sites for growth of aerosols. Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer and Aerodynamic Particle Sizer instruments monitored the aerosol particle size distribution. Parametric testing results suggested that the presence of the aerosols in the flue gas could increase the overall amine emissions by 10X compared to the baseline emissions from WLS’s vapor pressure. Principal component analysis (PCA) and projection to latent squares (PLS) developed models to predict the aerosol-based amine emissions from process data. The predictive PLS model had a correlation coefficient (Q 2 ) of 0.92 and could predict the aerosol-based emissions from the NAS process with ±15 % accuracy (average absolute deviation, AAD). The PLS regression model also identified key variables affecting aerosol-based emissions from WLS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions of magnesia refractory products: A life-cycle perspective

China is the largest producer of magnesia refractory materials and products in the world, resulting in significant energy consumption and carbon emissions. This paper analyzes measures to reduce both the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the production phase and use phase, providing a theoretical basis for a sustainable magnesia refractory industry. Results show that the total carbon emissions of carbon-containing magnesia bricks produced with fused magnesia are much higher than those of other products, and the total carbon emissions of both general magnesia brick and magnesia-carbon spray are lower than those of other products. Carbon emissions of magnesia products are mainly concentrated in the production process of magnesia. Manufacturers should select materials with lower environmental impacts and emphasize saving energy and reducing carbon emissions in the magnesia production process. Through scenario analysis we found that CO 2 capture is an effective measure to reduce carbon emissions compared with just improving energy consumption. However, a robust CO 2 market does not currently exist. Policy makers should plan on integrating CO 2 capture in the magnesia industry into a regional CO 2 capture and storage development planning in the long term. In particular, magnesia production is concentrated in a single geographical area which would and thus could take advantage of significant scale effects. Finally, in the use phase, extending the service lifetime reduces carbon emissions over the product lifetime, thus users should attempt to extend the service lifetime of a furnace as a whole. However, results show that it is not advisable to add a large number of repair refractories to extend the lifetime of existing furnaces.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Blending low-carbon hydrogen with natural gas: Impact on energy and life cycle emissions in natural gas pipelines

In this article, hydrogen (H 2 ) is considered an alternative energy carrier to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to power and heat generation. A quantitative analysis was conducted to estimate the energy intensity and GHG emissions associated with the transportation of NG/H 2 mixture in high-pressure transmission pipeline, considering blending ratios up to 100% of low-carbon H 2 . The life cycle emissions were obtained by including upstream supply chain emissions, compression and transportation emissions, and end use combustion emissions of the NG/ H 2 blend. This study accounts for global warming potential of fugitive methane and H 2 emissions associated with pipeline transportation of the blend in the life cycle analysis. A significant reduction in the overall life cycle GHG emissions can be achieved when delivering the same volume throughput but at a reduced energy flow to end users. However, to maintain the nominal energy throughput of the pipeline regardless of the H 2 mole fraction, a maximum reduction of about 6% is obtained as the H 2 mole fraction in the blend will be practically limited to approximately 30% H 2 when the pipeline operates at capacity.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Cradle-to-grave mercury emissions of light-duty gasoline and electric vehicles in China

China is actively promoting vehicle electrification, which is deemed to help achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality goal by 2060. Here we show that vehicle electrification in China leads to an increase in automotive emissions of mercury, a persistent, global hazardous pollutant regulated in the United Nations’ Minamata Convention. We found that with current technologies, life-cycle mercury emissions of battery electric vehicles of 300 miles of all-electric range are 92% higher than conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles, primarily due to the high mercury emissions from coal-based electricity generation. Notably different from greenhouse gases, mercury emissions are mainly embedded in vehicular material production and vehicle manufacturing, accounting for 50–60% for electric vehicles and ~90% for gasoline vehicles of their life-cycle mercury emissions. Even with a deeply decarbonized power grid, mercury footprints of electric vehicles would still be higher than those of gasoline vehicles, implying a potential increase in automotive mercury emissions in any countries that promote vehicle electrification. Measures including decarbonizing electric grid, implementing mercury-specific emission control through vehicle supply chain, and increasing metal recycling in electric vehicle batteries will help mitigate the unintended mercury emission increase caused by vehicle electrification.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Quantification of multiple methane emission sources at landfills using a double tracer technique

Research highlights: > Precise and reliable measurements of emissions from landfills are needed. > A tracer technique involving simultaneous release of two tracers was proven successful. > Measurements to be performed at times with low changing trends in barometric pressure. - Abstract: A double tracer technique was used successfully to quantify whole-site methane (CH{sub 4}) emissions from Fakse Landfill. Emissions from different sections of the landfill were quantified by using two different tracers. A scaled-down version of the tracer technique measuring close-by to localized sources having limited areal extent was also used to quantify emissions from on-site sources at the landfill facility, including a composting area and a sewage sludge storage pit. Three field campaigns were performed. At all three field campaigns an overall leak search showed that the CH{sub 4} emissions from the old landfill section were localized to the leachate collection wells and slope areas. The average CH{sub 4} emissions from the old landfill section were quantified to be 32.6 {+-} 7.4 kg CH{sub 4} h{sup -1}, whereas the source at the new section was quantified to be 10.3 {+-} 5.3 kg CH{sub 4} h{sup -1}. The CH{sub 4} emission from the compost area was 0.5 {+-} 0.25 kg CH{sub 4} h{sup -1}, whereas the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) flux was quantified to be in the order of 332 {+-} 166 kg CO{sub 2} h{sup -1} and 0.06 {+-} 0.03 kg N{sub 2}O h{sup -1}, respectively. The sludge pit located west of the compost material was quantified to have an emission of 2.4 {+-} 0.63 kg h{sup -1} CH{sub 4}, and 0.03 {+-} 0.01 kg h{sup -1} N{sub 2}O.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigation of methane emission from Fakse landfill using a biowindow system

Landfills are significant sources of atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}) that contributes to climate change, and therefore there is a need to reduce CH{sub 4} emissions from landfills. A promising cost efficient technology is to integrate compost into landfill covers (so-called 'biocovers') to enhance biological oxidation of CH{sub 4}. A full scale biocover system to reduce CH{sub 4} emissions was installed at Fakse landfill, Denmark using composted yard waste as active material supporting CH{sub 4} oxidation. Ten biowindows with a total area of 5000 m{sup 2} were integrated into the existing cover at the 12 ha site. To increase CH{sub 4} load to the biowindows, leachate wells were capped, and clay was added to slopes at the site. Point measurements using flux chambers suggested in most cases that almost all CH{sub 4} was oxidized, but more detailed studies on emissions from the site after installation of the biocover as well as measurements of total CH{sub 4} emissions showed that a significant portion of the emission quantified in the baseline study continued unabated from the site. Total emission measurements suggested a reduction in CH{sub 4} emission of approximately 28% at the end of the one year monitoring period. This was supported by analysis of stable carbon isotopes which showed an increase in oxidation efficiency from 16% to 41%. The project documented that integrating approaches such a whole landfill emission measurements using tracer techniques or stable carbon isotope measurements of ambient air samples are needed to document CH{sub 4} mitigation efficiencies of biocover systems. The study also revealed that there still exist several challenges to better optimize the functionality. The most important challenges are to control gas flow and evenly distribute the gas into the biocovers.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Biochar to reduce ammonia emissions in gaseous and liquid phase during composting of poultry manure with wheat straw

Highlights: • Biochar can function as an amendment for low C/N and low porosity raw materials. • Biochar reduced the gaseous emissions of ammonia during poultry manure composting. • Significant ammonia emissions [NH{sub 4}{sup +}] in the condensate were registered. • Biochar has a potential impact on N retention during composting of high N materials. •easuring [NH{sub 4}{sup +}] in condensate allows closing up the N balance during composting. - Abstract: Composting of poultry manure which is high in N and dense in structure can cause several problems including significant N losses in the form of NH{sub 3} through volatilization. Biochar due to its recalcitrance and sorption properties can be used in composting as a bulking agent and/or amendment. The addition of a bulking agent to high moisture raw materials can assure optimal moisture content and enough air-filled porosity but not necessarily the C/N ratio. Therefore, amendment of low C/N composting mixtures with biochar at low rates can have a positive effect on composting dynamics. This work aimed at evaluating the effect of selected doses of wood derived biochar amendment (0%, 5% and 10%, wet weight) to poultry manure (P) mixed with wheat straw (S) (in the ratio of 1:0.4 on wet weight) on the total ammonia emissions (including gaseous emissions of ammonia and liquid emissions of ammonium in the collected condensate and leachate) during composting. The process was performed in 165 L laboratory scale composting reactors for 42 days. The addition of 5% and 10% of biochar reduced gaseous ammonia emission by 30% and 44%, respectively. According to the obtained results, the measure of emission through the condensate would be necessary to assess the impact of the total ammonia emission during the composting process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis

Highlights: • Carbon and energy flow analysis were applied to high organic MSW treatment. • Incineration presented the best GHG reduction potential. • Biological treatment led to no significant GHG reduction. - Abstract: Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50–70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO{sub 2}-Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (−124 kgCO{sub 2}-Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O in treatment, and the further release of CH{sub 4} in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and −36 kgCO{sub 2}-Eq/t, respectively) as expected.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Emissivity measurements of shocked tin using a multi-wavelength integrating sphere

Pyrometric measurements of radiance to determine temperature have been performed on shock physics experiments for decades. However, multi-wavelength pyrometry schemes sometimes fail to provide credible temperatures in experiments, which incur unknown changes in sample emissivity, because an emissivity change also affects the spectral radiance. Hence, for shock physics experiments using pyrometry to measure temperatures, it is essential to determine the dynamic sample emissivity. The most robust way to determine the normal spectral emissivity is to measure the spectral normal-hemispherical reflectance using an integrating sphere. In this paper we describe a multi-wavelength (1.6–5.0 μm) integrating sphere system that utilizes a “reversed” scheme, which we use for shock physics experiments. The sample to be shocked is illuminated uniformly by scattering broadband light from inside a sphere onto the sample. A portion of the light reflected from the sample is detected at a point 12° from normal to the sample surface. For this experiment, we used the system to measure emissivity of shocked tin at four wavelengths for shock stress values between 17 and 33 GPa. The results indicate a large increase in effective emissivity upon shock release from tin when the shock is above 24–25 GPa, a shock stress that partially melts the sample. We also recorded an IR image of one of the shocked samples through the integrating sphere, and the emissivity inferred from the image agreed well with the integrating-sphere, pyrometer-detector data. Here, we discuss experimental data, uncertainties, and a data analysis process. We also describe unique emissivity-measurement problems arising from shock experiments and methods to overcome such problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The influence of the spectral emissivity of flat-plate calibrators on the calibration of IR thermometers

Flat Calibrators (FC) are an option for calibration of infrared thermometers (IT) with a fixed large target. FCs are neither blackbodies, nor gray-bodies; their spectral emissivity is lower than one and depends on wavelength. Nevertheless they are used as gray-bodies with a nominal emissivity value. FCs can be calibrated radiometrically using as reference a calibrated IR thermometer (RT). If an FC will be used to calibrate ITs that work in the same spectral range as the RT then its calibration is straightforward: the actual FC spectral emissivity is not required. This result is valid for any given fixed emissivity assessed to the FC. On the other hand, when the RT working spectral range does not match with that of the ITs to be calibrated with the FC then it is required to know the FC spectral emissivity as part of the calibration process. For this purpose, at CENAM, we developed an experimental setup to measure spectral emissivity in the infrared spectral range, based on a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. Not all laboratories have emissivity measurement capability in the appropriate wavelength and temperature ranges to obtain the spectral emissivity. Thus, we present an estimation of the error introduced when the spectral range of the RT used to calibrate an FC and the spectral ranges of the ITs to be calibrated with the FC do not match. Some examples are developed for the cases when RT and IT spectral ranges are [8,13] μm and [8,14] μm respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fabrication of carbon nanotube emitters on the graphite rod and their high field emission performance

Carbon nanotube (CNT) emitters with small emission area were fabricated on graphite rods using CNT films. By introducing the edge polishing process, the field emission performance of the CNT emitter was much improved, which showed a very high emission current of 6.34 mA (1.6 A/cm{sup 2}) under an applied electric field of 5.3 V/μm. It also indicates good long-term emission stability, which reveals no degradation in the emission current for 20 h. The emission patterns demonstrate uniform and well-focused electron beam spots. The enhanced field emission performance is mainly attributed to the suppressed edge emission after the edge polishing process.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

The quantum mechanics of ion-enhanced field emission and how it influences microscale gas breakdown

The presence of a positive gas ion can enhance cold electron field emission by deforming the potential barrier and increasing the tunneling probability of electrons—a process known as ion-enhanced field emission. In microscale gas discharges, ion-enhanced field emission produces additional emission from the cathode and effectively reduces the voltage required to breakdown a gaseous medium at the microscale (<10 μm). In this work, we enhance classic field emission theory by determining the impact of a gaseous ion on electron tunneling and compute the effect of ion-enhanced field emission on the breakdown voltage. We reveal that the current density for ion-enhanced field emission retains the same scaling as vacuum cold field emission and that this leads to deviations from traditional breakdown theory at microscale dimensions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗