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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

Synchronic Web Digital Identity: Speculations on the Art of the Possible

As search, social media, and artificial intelligence continue to reshape collective knowledge, the preservation of trust on the public infosphere has become a defining challenge of our time. Given the breadth and versatility of adversarial threats, the best—and perhaps only—defense is an equally broad and versatile infrastructure for digital identity. This document discusses the opportunities and implications of building such an infrastructure from the perspective of a national laboratory. The technical foundation for this discussion is the emergence of the Synchronic Web, a Sandia-developed infrastructure for asserting cryptographic provenance at Internet scale. As of the writing of this document, there is ongoing work to develop the underlying technology and apply it to multiple mission-specific domains within Sandia. The primary objective of this document to extend the body of existing work toward the more public-facing domain of digital identity. Our approach depends on a non-standard, but philosophically defensible notion of identity: digital identity is an unbroken sequence of states in a well-defined digital space. From this foundation, we abstractly describe the infrastructural foundations and applied configurations that we expect to underpin future notions of digital identity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties Derived from GOES over the ARM SGP Domain

Cloud macrophysical properties like fractional coverage and height Z(sub c) and microphysical parameters such as cloud liquid water path (LWP), effective droplet radius r(sub e), and cloud phase, are key factors affecting both the radiation budget and the hydrological cycle. Satellite data have been used to complement surface observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) by providing additional spatial coverage and top-of-atmosphere boundary conditions of these key parameters. Since 1994, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) has been used for deriving at each half-hour over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain: cloud amounts, altitudes, temperatures, and optical depths as well as broadband shortwave (SW) albedo and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. A new operational algorithm has been implemented to increase the number of value-added products to include cloud particle phase and effective size (r(sub e) or effective ice diameter D(sub e)) as well as LWP and ice water path. Similar analyses have been performed on the data from the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite as part of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System project. This larger suite of cloud properties will enhance our knowledge of cloud processes and further constrain the mesoscale and single column models using ARM data as a validation/initialization resource. This paper presents the results of applying this new algorithm to GOES-8 data taken during 1998 and 2000. The global VIRS results are compared to the GOES SGP results to provide appropriate context and to test consistency.

Minnis, P.↗

Physical discovery in representation learning via conditioning on prior knowledge

Recent advances in electron, scanning probe, optical, and chemical imaging and spectroscopy yield bespoke data sets containing the information of structure and functionality of complex systems. In many cases, the resulting data sets are underpinned by low-dimensional simple representations encoding the factors of variability within the data. The representation learning methods seek to discover these factors of variability, ideally further connecting them with relevant physical mechanisms. However, generally, the task of identifying the latent variables corresponding to actual physical mechanisms is extremely complex. Here, we present an empirical study of an approach based on conditioning the data on the known (continuous) physical parameters and systematically compare it with the previously introduced approach based on the invariant variational autoencoders. The conditional variational autoencoder (cVAE) approach does not rely on the existence of the invariant transforms and hence allows for much greater flexibility and applicability. Interestingly, cVAE allows for limited extrapolation outside of the original domain of the conditional variable. However, this extrapolation is limited compared to the cases when true physical mechanisms are known, and the physical factor of variability can be disentangled in full. We further show that introducing the known conditioning results in the simplification of the latent distribution if the conditioning vector is correlated with the factor of variability in the data, thus allowing us to separate relevant physical factors. We initially demonstrate this approach using 1D and 2D examples on a synthetic data set and then extend it to the analysis of experimental data on ferroelectric domain dynamics visualized via piezoresponse force microscopy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Investigating relationship between surface topography and emissivity of metallic additively manufactured parts

Due to the direct relationship between thermal history and mechanical behavior, in situ thermal monitoring is key in gauging quality of parts produced with additive manufacturing (AM). Accurate monitoring of temperatures in an AM process requires knowledge of environment and object parameters including object emissivity. The emissivity is dependent on several variables, including: wavelength, material composition, temperature, and surface topography. Researchers have been concerned with the thermal emissivity dependence on temperature since large ranges are seen in metal powder bed processes, but there is also an extensive range of surfaces produced by AM. This work focused on discovering what roughness characteristics control thermal emissivity through investigation of prototypic 316 stainless steel AM samples produced with a range of build conditions on a laser powder bed fusion machine. Through experimental measurements of emissivity using hemispherical directional reflectance (HDR), guided by simulations using a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) Maxwell solver, it was found that combinations of existing roughness parameters describing both height and slope of the surface correlate well with emissivity changes. Furthermore, these parameters work well due to their apt description of surface features encouraging internal reflection, which is the phenomenon that increases emissivity when a surface falls under the geometric optical region conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Glycosyltransferase family 47 (GT47) proteins in plants and animals

Glycosyltransferases (GTs) are carbohydrate-active enzymes that are encoded by the genomes of organisms spanning all domains of life. GTs catalyze glycosidic bond formation, transferring a sugar monomer from an activated donor to an acceptor substrate, often another saccharide. GTs from family 47 (GT47, PF03016) are involved in the synthesis of complex glycoproteins in mammals and insects and play a major role in the synthesis of almost every class of polysaccharide in plants, with the exception of cellulose, callose, and mixed linkage β-1,3/1,4-glucan. GT47 enzymes adopt a GT-B fold and catalyze the formation of glycosidic bonds through an inverting mechanism. Unlike animal genomes, which encode few GT47 enzymes, plant genomes contain 30 or more diverse GT47 coding sequences. With our current knowledge of the GT47 family across plant species brings us an interesting view, showcasing how members exhibit a great diversity in both donor and acceptor substrate specificity, even for members that are classified in the same phylogenetic clade. Thus, we discuss how plant GT47 family members represent a great case to study the relationship between substrate specificity, protein structure, and protein evolution. Most of the plant GT47 enzymes that are identified to date are involved in biosynthesis of plant cell wall polysaccharides, including xyloglucan, xylan, mannan, and pectins. This indicates unique and crucial roles of plant GT47 enzymes in cell wall formation. The aim of this review is to summarize findings about GT47 enzymes and highlight new challenges and approaches on the horizon to study this family.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation of Impedance Changes with Aging in Lithium Titanate-based Cells Using Physics-Based Dimensionless Modeling

Quantifying aging effects in lithium-ion cells with chemistries that have a flat open circuit potential is challenging. We implement a physics-based electrochemical model to track changes in the electrochemical impedance response of lithium titanate-based cells. Frequency domain equations of a pseudo two-dimensional model are made dimensionless, and the corresponding non-dimensional parameters are estimated using a Levenberg-Marquardt routine. The model weighs the relative contributions of changes in diffusion, ionic conduction within the electrolyte phase against solid phase electronic conduction towards cell aging. Solid-phase diffusion, charge transfer resistance and double layer capacitance at the solid-liquid interface are accounted for in the particle impedance. The estimation routine tracks dimensionless parameters using accelerated cycling data from full cells over 1000 cycles. The model can be deployed within a short time for state estimation using physics-based models without requiring prior knowledge of the battery chemistry, format, or capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Hybrid Procedural/Deductive Executive for Autonomous Spacecraft

The New Millennium Remote Agent (NMRA) will be the first AI system to control an actual spacecraft. The spacecraft domain places a strong premium on autonomy and requires dynamic recoveries and robust concurrent execution, all in the presence of tight real-time deadlines, changing goals, scarce resource constraints, and a wide variety of possible failures. To achieve this level of execution robustness, we have integrated a procedural executive based on generic procedures with a deductive model-based executive. A procedural executive provides sophisticated control constructs such as loops, parallel activity, locks, and synchronization which are used for robust schedule execution, hierarchical task decomposition, and routine configuration management. A deductive executive provides algorithms for sophisticated state inference and optimal failure recover), planning. The integrated executive enables designers to code knowledge via a combination of procedures and declarative models, yielding a rich modeling capability suitable to the challenges of real spacecraft control. The interface between the two executives ensures both that recovery sequences are smoothly merged into high-level schedule execution and that a high degree of reactivity is retained to effectively handle additional failures during recovery.

Pell, Barney↗

Response of vibrational properties and thermal conductivity of perovskites to pressure

We study the response of SrTiO 3 and KTaO 3 's vibrational properties and thermal conductivity to pressurization. Our goal is to improve the understanding of the relationship between crystal structure, vibrational dynamics, and thermal conductivity in perovskites. We measure the thermal conductivity of SrTiO 3 and KTaO 3 up to 28 GPa by time-domain thermoreflectance. We also perform Raman scattering and stimulated Brillouin scattering measurements of SrTiO 3 and KTaO 3 to characterize changes in vibrational dynamics with pressure. The thermal conductivity of SrTiO 3 increases under pressure with a slope comparable to that of other perovskites whose thermal conductivity has been measured versus pressure. Alternatively, the thermal conductivity of KTaO 3 has a stronger pressure dependence than that of other materials with similar crystal structure. We correlate pressure-induced changes in Raman and Brillouin spectra with pressure-induced changes in thermal conductivity. We show that pressure-induced changes in phonon lifetimes dominate the pressure dependence of thermal conductivity. This study provides benchmark knowledge of why depends on pressure and improves understanding of structure/thermal-property relationships.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward More Actionable Flood‐Risk Information

Abstract The increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage flood risks drives innovative information design. However, experts often disagree about design practices. As a result, flood‐risk estimates can diverge, leading to different conclusions for decision‐making. Using examples of household‐scale fluvial (riverine) flood‐risk information in the United States, we assess design features and risk communication approaches that may lead to more actionable information for decision‐making. We argue that increased attention to uncertainty characterization and model diagnostics is a critical intermediate step for developing simpler approaches for designing flood‐risk information. Simpler frameworks are desirable because flood risks change over time, and simpler frameworks are less costly to update. Developing frameworks for large spatial domains require collaboration grounded in principles of open science. Finally, systematically evaluating how decision‐makers access and use information can provide new insights to guide risk communication and information design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cytochromes P450 involved in bacterial RiPP biosyntheses

Abstract Ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides (RiPPs) are a large class of secondary metabolites that have garnered scientific attention due to their complex scaffolds with potential roles in medicine, agriculture, and chemical ecology. RiPPs derive from the cleavage of ribosomally synthesized proteins and additional modifications, catalyzed by various enzymes to alter the peptide backbone or side chains. Of these enzymes, cytochromes P450 (P450s) are a superfamily of heme-thiolate proteins involved in many metabolic pathways, including RiPP biosyntheses. In this review, we focus our discussion on P450 involved in RiPP pathways and the unique chemical transformations they mediate. Previous studies have revealed a wealth of P450s distributed across all domains of life. While the number of characterized P450s involved in RiPP biosyntheses is relatively small, they catalyze various enzymatic reactions such as C–C or C–N bond formation. Formation of some RiPPs is catalyzed by more than one P450, enabling structural diversity. With the continuous improvement of the bioinformatic tools for RiPP prediction and advancement in synthetic biology techniques, it is expected that further cytochrome P450-mediated RiPP biosynthetic pathways will be discovered. Summary The presence of genes encoding P450s in gene clusters for ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptides expand structural and functional diversity of these secondary metabolites, and here, we review the current state of this knowledge.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

iButton and Tinytag snow temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Snow temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula. Data were collected from October 1, 2021 to August 16, 2022 using iButton Link DS1926-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours beginning on October 1, 2021. Tinytag data collection began between October 9 and October 12, 2021 depending on sensor installation date. Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 236 iButtons and 30 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and four *.shp files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support↗

Clinical Decision Support - Overview and Update

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support system↗

Integration of domain and resource-based reasoning for real-time control in dynamic environments

A real-time software controller that successfully integrates domain-based and resource-based control reasoning to perform task execution in a dynamically changing environment is described. The design of the controller is based on the concept of partitioning the process to be controlled into a set of tasks, each of which achieves some process goal. It is assumed that, in general, there are multiple ways (tasks) to achieve a goal. The controller dynamically determines current goals and their current criticality, choosing and scheduling tasks to achieve those goals in the time available. It incorporates rule-based goal reasoning, a TMS-based criticality propagation mechanism, and a real-time scheduler. The controller has been used to build a knowledge-based situation assessment system that formed a major component of a real-time, distributed, cooperative problem solving system built under DARPA contract. It is also being employed in other applications now in progress.

Morgan, Keith↗

By Hand or Not By-Hand: A Case Study of Alternative Approaches to Parallelize CFD Applications

While parallel processing promises to speed up applications by several orders of magnitude, the performance achieved still depends upon several factors, including the multiprocessor architecture, system software, data distribution and alignment, as well as the methods used for partitioning the application and mapping its components onto the architecture. The existence of the Gorden Bell Prize given out at Supercomputing every year suggests that while good performance can be attained for real applications on general purpose multiprocessors, the large investment in man-power and time still has to be repeated for each application-machine combination. As applications and machine architectures become more complex, the cost and time-delays for obtaining performance by hand will become prohibitive. Computer users today can turn to three possible avenues for help: parallel libraries, parallel languages and compilers, interactive parallelization tools. The success of these methodologies, in turn, depends on proper application of data dependency analysis, program structure recognition and transformation, performance prediction as well as exploitation of user supplied knowledge. NASA has been developing multidisciplinary applications on highly parallel architectures under the High Performance Computing and Communications Program. Over the past six years, the transition of underlying hardware and system software have forced the scientists to spend a large effort to migrate and recede their applications. Various attempts to exploit software tools to automate the parallelization process have not produced favorable results. In this paper, we report our most recent experience with CAPTOOL, a package developed at Greenwich University. We have chosen CAPTOOL for three reasons: 1. CAPTOOL accepts a FORTRAN 77 program as input. This suggests its potential applicability to a large collection of legacy codes currently in use. 2. CAPTOOL employs domain decomposition to obtain parallelism. Although the fact that not all kinds of parallelism are handled may seem unappealing, many NASA applications in computational aerosciences as well as earth and space sciences are amenable to domain decomposition. 3. CAPTOOL generates code for a large variety of environments employed across NASA centers: MPI/PVM on network of workstations to the IBS/SP2 and CRAY/T3D.

Yan, Jerry C.↗

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

Nonlinear rescaling of control values simplifies fuzzy control

Traditional control theory is well-developed mainly for linear control situations. In non-linear cases there is no general method of generating a good control, so we have to rely on the ability of the experts (operators) to control them. If we want to automate their control, we must acquire their knowledge and translate it into a precise control strategy. The experts' knowledge is usually represented in non-numeric terms, namely, in terms of uncertain statements of the type 'if the obstacle is straight ahead, the distance to it is small, and the velocity of the car is medium, press the brakes hard'. Fuzzy control is a methodology that translates such statements into precise formulas for control. The necessary first step of this strategy consists of assigning membership functions to all the terms that the expert uses in his rules (in our sample phrase these words are 'small', 'medium', and 'hard'). The appropriate choice of a membership function can drastically improve the quality of a fuzzy control. In the simplest cases, we can take the functions whose domains have equally spaced endpoints. Because of that, many software packages for fuzzy control are based on this choice of membership functions. This choice is not very efficient in more complicated cases. Therefore, methods have been developed that use neural networks or generic algorithms to 'tune' membership functions. But this tuning takes lots of time (for example, several thousands iterations are typical for neural networks). In some cases there are evident physical reasons why equally space domains do not work: e.g., if the control variable u is always positive (i.e., if we control temperature in a reactor), then negative values (that are generated by equal spacing) simply make no sense. In this case it sounds reasonable to choose another scale u' = f(u) to represent u, so that equal spacing will work fine for u'. In the present paper we formulate the problem of finding the best rescaling function, solve this problem, and show (on a real-life example) that after an optimal rescaling, the un-tuned fuzzy control can be as good as the best state-of-art traditional non-linear controls.

Vanlangingham, H.↗