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Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on AIMS III Scenarios

This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Status report on a natural laminar-flow nacelle flight experiment

The natural laminar flow (NLF) nacelle experiment is part of a drag reduction production program, and has the dual objectives of studying the extent of NLF on full scale nacelles in a flight environment and the effect of acoustic disturbance on the location of transition on the nacelle surface. The experiment is being conducted in two phases: (1) an NLF fairing was flown on a full scale Citation nacelle to develop the experiment technique and establish feasibility; (2) full scale, flow through, NLF nacelles located below the right wing of an experimental NASA OV-1 aircraft are evaluated. The measurements of most interest are the static pressure distribution and transition location on the nacelle surface, and the fluctuating pressure levels associated with the noise sources. Data are collected in combinations of acoustic frequencies and sound pressure levels. The results of phase 2 tests to date indicate that on shape GE2, natural laminar flow was maintained as far aft as the afterbody joint at 50 percent of the nacelle length. An aft facing step at this joint caused premature transition at this station. No change was observed in the transition pattern when the noise sources were operated.

Hastings, Earl C., Jr.↗

Language-Theoretic Data Analysis to Support ICS Protocol Baselining

Critical infrastructure stakeholders need to baseline their systems to understand expected protocol communications. Baseline behaviors may vary based on operational context. Expected operations during a maintenance window, for example, may be different from normal operations. Furthermore, constructing system baselines for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) is difficult and time-consuming. ICS processes generate artifacts expressed across heterogeneous data sources such as network traffic and device logs. This paper explores the hypothesis that such ICS artifacts form a language in the language-theoretic sense. From a theoretical perspective, the variety of implementations of ICS protocols and constrained environment of OT networks provide a rich application domain for language-theoretic approaches. We present several use cases related to the practical construction of system baselines: grammars for data fusion, language dialects for device fingerprinting, and security automata for system baselining

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric potential patterns deduced for the SUNDIAL period of September 23-26, 1986

High-latitude electric potential and ionospheric conductance patterns are presented and discussed for the Northern Hemisphere during the SUNDIAL period of September 23-26, 1986 using the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique of Richmond and Kamide (1988). Data sources used for the model are satellite and ground magnetometers, electron precipitation instruments, incoherent scatter radars, and ionospheric coherent radars. The period was characterized by many substorms, and a wide variety of instantaneous patterns of electrodynamic parameters on a hemispheric scale are derived throughout this period, of which only a few examples are displayed. The entire set of electric potentials and conductances are being made available through the NCAR CEDAR Data Base for further analysis and utilization in simulation models.

Emery, B. A.↗

MODIS Observation of Aerosols over Southern Africa During SAFARI 2000: Data, Validation, and Estimation of Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Aerosol properties, including optical thickness and size parameters, are retrieved operationally from the MODIS sensor onboard the Terra satellite launched on 18 December 1999. The predominant aerosol type over the Southern African region is smoke, which is generated from biomass burning on land and transported over the southern Atlantic Ocean. The SAFARI-2000 period experienced smoke aerosol emissions from the regular biomass burning activities as well as from the prescribed burns administered on the auspices of the experiment. The MODIS Aerosol Science Team (MAST) formulates and implements strategies for the retrieval of aerosol products from MODIS, as well as for validating and analyzing them in order to estimate aerosol effects in the radiative forcing of climate as accurately as possible. These activities are carried out not only from a global perspective, but also with a focus on specific regions identified as having interesting characteristics, such as the biomass burning phenomenon in southern Africa and the associated smoke aerosol, particulate, and trace gas emissions. Indeed, the SAFARI-2000 aerosol measurements from the ground and from aircraft, along with MODIS, provide excellent data sources for a more intensive validation and a closer study of the aerosol characteristics over Southern Africa. The SAFARI-2000 ground-based measurements of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from both the automatic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and handheld Sun photometers have been used to validate MODIS retrievals, based on a sophisticated spatio-temporal technique. The average global monthly distribution of aerosol from MODIS has been combined with other data to calculate the southern African aerosol daily averaged (24 hr) radiative forcing over the ocean for September 2000. It is estimated that on the average, for cloud free conditions over an area of 9 million square kin, this predominantly smoke aerosol exerts a forcing of -30 W/square m C lose to the terrestrial surface and -10 W/square m at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). While cooling the surface and Earth system, the difference of 20 W/square m is energy that heats the atmosphere.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Operational Limitations of the High Rate Frame Multiplexer (HRFM) Onboard the International Space Station(ISS)-and How These Limitations Affect Payload Developers (PDs) and International Partners (IPs)

The data system onboard the United States Operating Segment (USOS) of the ISS is currently used to capture, route, record and downlink high-rate science data from experiments inside the US Lab. Once NASDA's Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) and ESA's Attached Pressurized Module (APM) are launched - in the 2004 to 2005 timeframe - data from these facilities will also be routed to the ground using the USOS data system. A critical component of the USOS data system is the High Rate Frame Multiplexer (HRFM). The HRFM combines multiple data/video inputs and combines them into one data stream. This Ku-band data stream is then routed through the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) system to the ground. The Data Management Coordinator (DMC) - located at the Marshall Space Flight Center's Payload Operations Center (POC) - is responsible for commanding and controlling the HRFM. The HRFM can multiplex a maximum of eight digital data sources and four digital video sources. Thus far, this limitation has not been constraining to operations. However, once the JEM and APM are integrated, the HRFM limitations will become a major constraint to science operations onboard. The purpose of this paper is to characterize the limitations of the HRFM and to explain how these limitations can be successfully managed. With this information, Payload Developers and International Partners will be able to more effectively utilize the data systems onboard the ISS. Ultimately, more science data can be captured and downlinked to Flight Controllers and Scientists on the ground.

Mixson, Charles D.↗

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Land Form Types on West Ship Island, Mississippi

Barrier islands help protect the southern and southeastern U.S. shoreline from hurricanes and severe storms. They are important for coastal resource management and geologic research, especially in studies that involve changes in island areas and surface environments, and they display a dynamically changing and diverse mix of landform and vegetative cover habitats. Many Gulf Coast barrier islands have undergone dramatic decreases in areal extent, often due to hurricane and severe storm damage. For example, Louisiana's barrier islands have lost 55 percent of their surface area over the past 100 years. Aerial photography and Landsat data have been used to monitor changes in barrier island areal extent, although neither data source is optimal for making maps of detailed landform types at site-specific scales. High spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery, such as that obtained from the high spatial resolution Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) sensor, may enable improved mapping of landform types, which would benefit studies of the dynamics of barrier island environments. During the summers of 2000 and 2001, a study was conducted to assess low-altitude AVIRIS data for mapping the landform types of West Ship Island, a barrier island in Harrison County, Mississippi. This study area was selected because of the availability of low-altitude AVIRIS data acquired on July 22, 1999, and because of the area's accessibility to the investigating team. West Ship Island is one of the six barrier islands that belong to the Gulf Shores National Seashore, which is managed by the National Park Service. This island contains an impressive range of landform categories. Surface types include beach, dune, and sand flat environments. West Ship Island also harbors Fort Massachusetts, a historic fort used during the Civil War. Because it is located near Stennis Space Center, the island is frequently imaged by NASA's airborne and spaceborne sensors.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ILLICIT TRANSIT INTERDICTION GLOBAL ANALYSIS

This study aims to enhance the security of radioactive materials during transport by analyzing commonalities in cargo thefts conducted by non-state groups such as thieves and terrorists. This research focuses on identifying patterns and trends in the methods used to steal high-value cargo, with the goal of applying these insights to improve transport security of radioactive materials. Key questions addressed include the frequency of specific tools, techniques, and insider involvement in thefts, as well as the use of weapons, electronic jamming equipment, and specialized tools. Findings will inform security design improvements and industry practices to mitigate vulnerabilities. The study involves a comprehensive review of literature and case studies, utilizing data sources from 2018 to 2023. Articles will be selected based on their relevance to thefts of valuable cargo in transit, with a focus on incidents involving non-state actors. The methodology will include statistical and inferential analysis to identify trends, with results visualized through pie charts, frequency analyses, and terrain maps. The discussion will highlight the implications of findings and provide actionable recommendations for strengthening security measures. Limitations such as data availability and reporting inconsistencies will be acknowledged. Suggestions for future improvements will be constructed using existing case studies and expert feedback. The study’s outcomes aim to raise awareness within the industry, inform policy decisions, and enhance security protocols for radioactive material transport. Metrics for impact include the potential publication of findings, presentations at conferences to raise awareness, and the subsequent actions taken by stakeholders based on the research. By identifying trends and vulnerabilities and suggesting improvements, this research contributes to preventing the illicit use of nuclear and radiological materials.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Bolten, John D.↗

Optimized thermodynamic properties of REE aqueous species (REE 3+ and REEOH 2+ ) and experimental database for modeling the solubility of REE phosphate minerals (monazite, xenotime, and rhabdophane) from 25 to 300 °C

Rare earth elements (REE) are critical elements found in monazite, xenotime, and hydrated REE phosphates which typically form in hydrothermal mineral deposits. Accurate predictions of the solubility of these REE phosphates and the speciation of REE in aqueous fluids are both key to understanding the controls on the transport, fractionation, and deposition of REE in natural systems. Previous monazite and xenotime solubility experiments indicate the presence of large discrepancies between experimentally derived solubility constants versus calculated solubilities by combining different data sources for the thermodynamic properties of minerals and aqueous species at hydrothermal conditions. In this study, these discrepancies were resolved by using the program GEMSFITS to optimize the standard partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G° 298 ) of REE aqueous species (REE 3+ and REE hydroxyl complexes) at 298.15 K and 1 bar while keeping the thermodynamic properties fixed for the REE phosphates. A comprehensive experimental database was compiled using solubility data available between 25 and 300 °C. The latter permits conducting thermodynamic parameter optimization of Δ f G° 298 for REE aqueous species. Optimal matching of the rhabdophane solubility data between 25 and 100 °C requires modifying the Δ f G° 298 values of REE 3+ by 1–6 kJ/mol, whereas matching of the monazite solubility data between 100 and 300 °C requires modifying the Δ f G° 298 values of both REE 3+ and REEOH 2+ by ~15–31 kJ/mol and ~2–10 kJ/mol, respectively. For xenotime, adjustments of Δ f G° 298 values by 1–26 kJ/mol are only necessary for the REE 3+ species. The optimizations indicate that the solubility of monazite in acidic solutions is controlled by the light (L)REE 3+ species at <150 °C and the LREEOH 2+ species at >150 °C, whereas the solubility of xenotime is controlled by the heavy (H)REE 3+ species between 25 and 300 °C. Based on the optimization results, we conclude that the revised Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state does not reliably predict the thermodynamic properties of REE 3+ , REEOH 2+ , and likely other REE hydroxyl species at hydrothermal conditions. We therefore provide an experimental database (ThermoExp_REE) as a basic framework for future updates, extensions with other ligands, and optimizations as new experimental REE data become available. As a result, the optimized thermodynamic properties of aqueous species and minerals are available open access to accurately predict the solubility of REE phosphates in fluid-rock systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing biogeographic survey gaps in bacterial diversity knowledge: A global synthesis of freshwaters

Freshwaters account for 0.8% of Earth's surface area, yet support >10% of known plant and animal species making them disproportionately biodiverse. Modern molecular techniques have begun to reveal microbial diversity, but application of these approaches to address global microbial biogeography is relatively unknown in freshwaters. Our aim was to identify gaps in microbial data coverage along climatic and landscape disturbance gradients and among terrestrial biomes and hydrographic regions for all freshwater ecosystems and three freshwater habitat types: lakes and reservoirs (lentic); streams and rivers (lotic); and wetlands. We reviewed literature on microbial diversity in freshwaters surveyed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing which identify microbial taxa. We georeferenced survey locations and used a geographic information system to identify and map gaps in survey coverage using open-source data for climate, landscape disturbance, terrestrial biomes, and freshwater ecoregions. In our study, we compiled 3,425 georeferenced survey locations reported from 963 studies. Streams were surveyed most frequently (60.8% of survey locations), followed by lakes (33.5%) and wetlands (5.6%). Surveys were concentrated in North America, central and western Europe, and Southeast Asia; 35% of freshwater ecoregions were surveyed at least once across freshwater habitat types, whereas 23%, 23%, and 12% were surveyed at least once for lentic, lotic, and wetland habitat types, respectively. The climatic gap analysis indicated coverage is high for temperate regions but lacking in the tropics and Arctic, particularly for wetland ecosystems. Our assessment revealed high climatic coverage of freshwater microbial diversity knowledge, but expansive ecoregional gaps attributable to biased sampling near research institutions in North America, western Europe, and China. Future surveys should target ecoregions in Africa, South America, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. An essential next step will be to curate and disseminate sequencing efforts to facilitate the study of processes driving global diversity patterns.

16S rRNA↗

Do Citizen Science Intense Observation Periods Increase Data Usability? A Deep Dive of the NASA GLOBE Clouds Data Set With Satellite Comparisons

The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science program has recently conducted a series of month-long intensive observation periods (IOPs), asking the public to submit daily reports on cloud and sky conditions from all regions of Earth. This provides a wealth of crowdsourced observations from the ground, which complements other conventional scientific cloud data. In addition, the GLOBE reports are matched in space and time with geostationary and low Earth orbit satellites, which allows for a straightforward comparison of cloud properties, and minimizes the biases associated with mismatched sampling between participants and satellites. The matched GLOBE dataset is used to calculate the mean observed cloud cover by atmospheric level both worldwide and by region. The overall magnitudes of cloud cover between the GLOBE participants and the matched satellites agree within 10%, which is notable given the distinctly different natures of the data sources. The mean vertical cloud profiles show GLOBE reporting more low-level clouds and fewer high-level clouds than satellites. The low cloud disagreement is likely related to satellites missing low clouds when high clouds block their view. Conversely, the high cloud disagreement is related primarily to cloud opacity, as satellites may miss some optically thin clouds. Monte Carlo testing shows the results to be robust, and the tripled amount of IOP data reduces uncertainty by half. These findings also highlight ways in which citizen science IOP data may be used to support scientific research while accounting for their unique properties. Plain Language Summary: Citizen science is becoming an increasingly prominent aspect of scientific research, and so it important to study how citizen science data can be used effectively. For example, The GLOBE Program has recently conducted a series of special data-collecting events, or “challenges”, which gathered large numbers of reports on cloud and sky conditions. Because NASA GLOBE Clouds matches the participant reports with cloud observations from satellites, we can use these data to get a combined view of clouds from above and below. When looking at the average cloud cover for different atmospheric levels across Earth, we find that the GLOBE participants and the satellites agree quite closely. This is a surprising and fascinating find, given how different in nature volunteer ground reports are to satellite measurements. However, there are some small but notable disagreements between GLOBE participants and satellites about the distribution of cloud cover at different levels. In addition, by testing the data for uncertainty, we show that the results from the GLOBE data are reliable, and that more public participation improves the reliability. So, by carefully designing the analysis methodology, and by testing for the uncertainty of the data, citizen science can make a meaningful contribution to scientific research.

J. Brant Dodson↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Channel Entity Alignment via Name Uniqueness Estimation

When searching for adversarial activity within multiple networks, one of the greatest challenges is how to accurately align entities across different channels of information. This task becomes increasingly difficult when minimal additional information is known about each individual besides a name. Within this study, we analyze name rarity and how it can be used to align people on three distinct data channels: Venmo financial transactions, Reddit online discussions, and a bibliographic data source of academic writings. We explore how the uniqueness of a name can be used to decide if a person is likely the same as another across networks, in the absence of any additional ground truth. While 100 percent confidence cannot be gained, we can use this information to clarify when a possible alignment is more or less likely to be the same individual, increasing our confidence of accurately detecting adversarial behavioral patterns. From the data collected, we found that 0.1% of people had the same name across data sets, and 22.5% of those names are considered rare by our threshold. In our study, we also examine the accuracy of our method and show how real names can be extracted from account usernames, and compared in a similar manner.

Orren, Miquette J.↗