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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transferring a Molecular Foundation Model for Polymer Property Predictions

Transformer-based large language models have remarkable potential to accelerate design optimization for applications such as drug development and material discovery. Self-supervised pretraining of transformer models requires large-scale data sets, which are often sparsely populated in topical areas such as polymer science. Further, state-of-the-art approaches for polymers conduct data augmentation to generate additional samples but unavoidably incur extra computational costs. In contrast, large-scale open-source data sets are available for small molecules and provide a potential solution to data scarcity through transfer learning. In this work, we show that using transformers pretrained on small molecules and fine-tuned on polymer properties achieves comparable accuracy to those trained on augmented polymer data sets for a series of benchmark prediction tasks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2011

A boostrap algorithm for temporal signal reconstruction in the presence of noise from its fractional Fourier transformed intensity spectra

A bootstrap algorithm for reconstructing the temporal signal from four of its fractional Fourier intensity spectra in the presence of noise is described. An optical arrangement is proposed which realises the bootstrap method for the measurement of ultrashort laser pulses. The measurement of short laser pulses which are less than 1 ps is an ongoing challenge in optical physics. One reason is that no oscilloscope exists today which can directly measure the time structure of these pulses and so it becomes necessary to invent other techniques which indirectly provide the necessary information for temporal pulse reconstruction. One method called FROG (frequency resolved optical gating) has been in use since 19911 and is one of the popular methods for recovering these types of short pulses. The idea behind FROG is the use of multiple time-correlated pulse measurements in the frequency domain for the reconstruction. Multiple data sets are required because only intensity information is recorded and not phase, and thus by collecting multiple data sets, there is enough redundant measurements to yield the original time structure, but not necessarily uniquely (or even up to an arbitrary constant phase offset). The objective of this paper is to describe another method which is simpler than FROG. Instead of collecting many auto-correlated data sets, only two spectral intensity measurements of the temporal signal are needed in the absence of noise. The first can be from the intensity components of its usual Fourier transform and the second from its FrFT (fractional Fourier transform). In the presence of noise, a minimum of four measurements are required with the same FrFT order but with two different apertures. Armed with these two or four measurements, a unique solution up to a constant phase offset can be constructed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prediction and Experimental Verification of Electrolyte Solvation Structure from an OMol25-Trained Interatomic Potential

A molecular-level understanding of electrolyte solvation structure and ion–ion correlations is critical to developing next-generation battery chemistries. Atomistic simulation capabilities with sufficient accuracy, speed, and transferability to deliver reliable structural insights while avoiding arduous system-specific reparameterization are thus highly desirable. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained on large, chemically diverse data sets are revolutionizing computational chemistry, enabling molecular dynamics simulations of battery electrolytes with near-DFT accuracy over 10,000× faster than DFT. While previous MLIP training data sets with suitable elemental coverage for electrolytes have been based on inorganic materials, the Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) data set provides large-scale molecular DFT MLIP training data with broad elemental coverage and specifically samples tens of millions of electrolyte configurations. Here, we integrate computational modeling with experimental validation to systematically assess the ability of large-scale MLIPs pretrained on materials data or on OMol25 to accurately resolve nanoscale structural organization and ion-solvation characteristics in Na-ion battery electrolytes across diverse physicochemical conditions and compositional regimes. We find that the OMol25-trained Universal Model of Atoms (UMA-OMol) predicts experimentally measured densities and X-ray structure factors in substantially better agreement compared to state-of-the-art models trained only on inorganic materials data. Using UMA-OMol, we further analyze systematic trends in solvation structure as a function of cation identity, anion chemistry, salt concentration, and solvent topology. We observe that increasing system temperature amplifies the heterogeneity within the solvation environment, perturbing cation–solvent interactions and promoting the formation of contact ion pairs (CIPs). Moreover, subtle variations in the solvent topology of glyme-based electrolytes cause pronounced changes in ion correlations and solvation structure. The experimental agreement and microscopic insights shown here position OMol25-trained MLIPs as a practical route to predictive, high-throughput electrolyte simulations beyond the limits of classical force fields and direct DFT molecular dynamics, serving as a powerful tool for accelerating the design of next-generation Na-ion battery electrolytes and beyond.

MLIPs↗

DOE OSTI2010

PARAMETRIC TENSION BETWEEN EVEN AND ODD MULTIPOLE DATA OF THE WMAP POWER SPECTRUM: UNACCOUNTED CONTAMINATION OR MISSING PARAMETERS?

There exists power contrast in even and odd multipoles of the WMAP power spectrum at low and intermediate multipole ranges. This anomaly is explicitly associated with the angular power spectrum, which is heavily used for cosmological model fitting. Having noted this, we have investigated whether even (odd) multipole data set is individually consistent with the WMAP concordance model. Our investigation shows that the WMAP concordance model does not make a good fit for even (odd) multipole data set, which indicates parametric tension between even and odd multipole data set. Noting that tension is highest in primordial power spectrum parameters, we have additionally considered a running spectral index, but found that tension increases to even a higher level. We believe these parametric tensions may be indications of unaccounted contamination or imperfection of the model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating vehicle fuel economy from overhead camera imagery and application for traffic control

In this work, we explore the ability to estimate vehicle fuel consumption using imagery from overhead fisheye lens cameras deployed as traffic sensors. We utilize this information to simulate vision-based control of a traffic intersection, with a goal of improving fuel economy with minimal impact to mobility. We introduce the ORNL Overhead Vehicle Dataset (OOVD), consisting of a data set of paired, labeled vehicle images from a ground-based camera and an overhead fisheye lens traffic camera. The data set includes segmentation masks based on Gaussian mixture models for vehicle detection. We show the dataset utility through three applications: the estimate of fuel consumption based on segmentation bounding boxes, vehicle discrimination for those vehicles with largest bounding boxes, and a fine-grained classification on a limited number of vehicle makes and models using a pre-trained set of convolutional neural network models. We compare these results with estimates based on a large open-source data set based on web-scraped imagery. Finally, we show the utility of the approach using reinforcement learning in a traffic simulator using the open source Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO) package. Our results show the feasibility of the approach for controlling traffic lights for better fuel efficiency based solely on visual vehicle estimates from commercial, fisheye lens cameras.

Karnowski, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2018

Earth Microbiome Project and Global Systems Biology

Recently, we published the first large-scale analysis of data from the Earth Microbiome Project (1, 2), a truly multidisciplinary research program involving more than 500 scientists and 27,751 samples acquired from 43 countries. These samples represent myriad specimen types and span a wide range of biotic and abiotic factors, geographic locations, and physicochemical properties. The database (https://qiita.ucsd.edu/emp/) is still growing, with over 90,000 amplicon datasets, >500 metagenomic runs, and metabolomics datasets from a similar number of samples. Importantly, the techniques, data and analytical tools are all standardized and publicly accessible, providing a framework to support research at a scale of integration that just 7 years ago seemed impossible.

Gilbert, Jack A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Stride Search v. 1.0

Stride Search provides a flexible tool for detecting storms or other extreme climate events in high-resolution climate data sets saved on uniform latitude-longitude grids in standard NetCDF format. Users provide the software a quantitative description of a meteorological event they are interested in; the software searches a data set for locations in space and time that meet the user’s description. In its first stage, Stride Search performs a spatial search of the data set at each timestep by dividing a search domain into circular sectors of constant geodesic radius. Data from a netCDF file is read into memory for each circular search sector. If the data meet or exceed a set of storm identification criteria (defined by the user), a storm is recorded to a linked list. Finally, the linked list is examined and duplicate detections of the same storm are removed and the results are written to an output file. The first stage’s output file is read by a second program that builds storm. Additional identification criteria may be applied at this stage to further classify storms. Storm tracks are the software’s ultimate output and routines are provided for formatting that output for various external software libraries for plotting and tabulating data.

Bosler, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2016

Stride Search v. 1.0

Bosler, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Main Bearing Replacement and Damage - A Field Data Study on 15 Gigawatts of Wind Energy Capacity

This study seeks to establish a comprehensive baseline of knowledge for the replacement and damage of main bearings in wind turbines. The purpose of this report is to provide a high-level summary of the data set, methodology, and results of this work. Full technical details and an extended analysis will be made available in a future publication. We collected data on main bearing replacements and reported damage from industrial partners based in Europe and the United States. In total, we obtained data for 167 wind power plants, with a combined capacity of 15.3 gigawatts (GW). Most of the data set was comprised of land-based, three-point mount, spherical roller bearings. Within this data set were 689 instances of main bearing replacement. Analysis was undertaken in two parts: first, a statistical analysis of the main bearing time-to-replacement data using survival analysis techniques; second, quantitative and qualitative analyses of the obtained damage information. Our results showed that 10% of a fixed main bearing population would be expected to have been replaced by 10.5 years. This is close to half of the 20-year design value. Fitted parametric distributions then indicated that by year 20, between 22% and 25% of main bearings are expected to have been replaced. Analysis of the damage reports revealed spalling to be the main type of damage listed. The additional presence of surface damage in the collected data indicates that at least part of the spalling cases are likely due to surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. At this stage is not clear what proportion of spalling cases result from "wear induced", surface-initiated and subsurface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. While this work provides important insights into the current state of main bearing replacements and damage, many questions remain. An ongoing and expanding data collection and analysis effort focused on wind turbine main bearings is therefore recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust verification of stochastic simulation codes

We introduce a robust verification tool for computational codes, which we call Stochastic Robust Extrapolation based Error Quantification (StREEQ). Unlike the prevalent Grid Convergence Index (GCI) [1] method, our approach is suitable for both stochastic and deterministic computational codes and is generalizable to any number of discretization variables. Building on ideas introduced in the Robust Verification [2] approach, we estimate the converged solution and orders of convergence with uncertainty using multiple fits of a discretization error model. In contrast to Robust Verification, we perform these fits to many bootstrap samples yielding a larger set of predictions with smoother statistics. Here, bootstrap resampling is performed on the lack-of-fit errors for deterministic code responses, and directly on the noisy data set for stochastic responses. This approach lends a degree of robustness to the overall results, capable of yielding precise verification results for sufficiently resolved data sets, and appropriately expanding the uncertainty when the data set does not support a precise result. For stochastic responses, a credibility assessment is also performed to give the analyst an indication of the trustworthiness of the results. Furthermore, this approach is suitable for both code and solution verification, and is particularly useful for solution verification of high-consequence simulations..

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Prediction of Fracture Toughness in Hydrogen-charged Stainless Steels

Austenitic stainless steels are structural materials utilized in tritium gas pressure boundaries since they are resistant to hydrogen isotope embrittlement [1-3]. However, exposure to tritium over long periods of time leads to tritium uptake which decays to result in helium ingrowth. This helium ingrowth results in further embrittlement effects which are synergistic with that from the hydrogen isotope [4]. Therefore, it is important for tritium facilities to understand the material limitations of stainless steel in this environment. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has available a large experimental data set of austenitic stainless steels which have been exposed to tritium environments for various lengths of time. With the availability of this data set, machine learning (ML) algorithms provide an opportunity to model the embrittlement of stainless steel due to the algorithm’s ability to identify patterns in data sets that are difficult and costly to identify in other manners [5]. Ultimately, the amount and quality of the available data is one defining force in the ability of a ML model to accurately predict the desired outputs. The models developed herein will illustrate the ability for the various algorithms to predict the change in fracture toughness in stainless steels due to hydrogen-isotope embrittlement.

Hoar, Eric T.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Enhancing materials property prediction by leveraging computational and experimental data using deep transfer learning

Abstract The current predictive modeling techniques applied to Density Functional Theory (DFT) computations have helped accelerate the process of materials discovery by providing significantly faster methods to scan materials candidates, thereby reducing the search space for future DFT computations and experiments. However, in addition to prediction error against DFT-computed properties, such predictive models also inherit the DFT-computation discrepancies against experimentally measured properties. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that using deep transfer learning, existing large DFT-computational data sets (such as the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)) can be leveraged together with other smaller DFT-computed data sets as well as available experimental observations to build robust prediction models. We build a highly accurate model for predicting formation energy of materials from their compositions; using an experimental data set of $$1,643$$ 1 , 643 observations, the proposed approach yields a mean absolute error (MAE) of $$0.07$$ 0.07 eV/atom, which is significantly better than existing machine learning (ML) prediction modeling based on DFT computations and is comparable to the MAE of DFT-computation itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), E FF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , E LUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . For year 2015 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr -1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , G ATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1 , S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1 , and S LAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1 . G ATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E FF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink ( S LAND ) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO 2 ) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from E FF and 25 % from E LUC . This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center ( doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parametric dynamic mode decomposition for reduced order modeling

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a model-order reduction approach, whereby spatial modes of fixed temporal frequencies are extracted from numerical or experimental data sets. The DMD low-rank or reduced operator is typically obtained by singular value decomposition of the temporal data sets. For parameter-dependent models, as found in many multi-query applications such as uncertainty quantification or design optimization, the only parametric DMD technique developed was a stacked approach, with data sets at multiple parameter values were aggregated together, increasing the computational work needed to devise low-rank dynamical reduced-order models. Here in this paper, we present two novel approach to carry out parametric DMD: one based on the interpolation of the reduced-order DMD eigen-pair and the other based on the interpolation of the reduced DMD (Koopman) operator. Numerical results are presented for diffusion-dominated nonlinear dynamical problems, including a multiphysics radiative transfer example. All three parametric DMD approaches are compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Graph Networks as a Universal Machine Learning Framework for Molecules and Crystals

Graph networks are a new machine learning (ML) paradigm that supports both relational reasoning and combinatorial generalization. Here, we develop universal MatErials Graph Network (MEGNet) models for accurate property prediction in both molecules and crystals. We demonstrate that the MEGNet models outperform prior ML models such as the SchNet in 11 out of 13 properties of the QM9 molecule data set. Similarly, we show that MEGNet models trained on $\sim 60,000$ crystals in the Materials Project substantially outperform prior ML models in the prediction of the formation energies, band gaps and elastic moduli of crystals, achieving better than DFT accuracy over a much larger data set. Here, we present two new strategies to address data limitations common in materials science and chemistry. First, we demonstrate a physically-intuitive approach to unify four separate molecular MEGNet models for the internal energy at 0 K and room temperature, enthalpy and Gibbs free energy into a single free energy MEGNet model by incorporating the temperature, pressure and entropy as global state inputs. Second, we show that the learned element embeddings in MEGNet models encode periodic chemical trends and can be transfer-learned from a property model trained on a larger data set (formation energies) to improve property models with smaller amounts of data (band gaps and elastic moduli).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Surrogates for Interaction of a Jet with High Explosives: Part I - Analysis with a Small Sample Size

Computer simulations, especially of complex phenomena, can be expensive, requiring high-performance computing resources. Often, to understand a phenomenon, multiple simulations are run, each with a different set of simulation input parameters. These data are then used to create an interpolant, or surrogate, relating the simulation outputs to the corresponding inputs. When the inputs and outputs are scalars, a simple machine learning model can suffice. However, when the simulation outputs are vector valued, available at locations in two or three spatial dimensions, often with a temporal component, creating a surrogate is more challenging. In this report, we use a two-dimensional problem of a jet interacting with high explosives to understand how we can build high-quality surrogates. The characteristics of our data set are unique - the vector-valued outputs from each simulation are available at over two million spatial locations; each simulation is run for a relatively small number of time steps; the size of the computational domain varies with each simulation; and resource constraints limit the number of simulations we can run. We show how we analyze these extremely large data-sets, set the parameters for the algorithms used in the analysis, and use simple ways to improve the accuracy of the spatio-temporal surrogates without substantially increasing the number of simulations required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗