Earthquake induced damage estimation in structural systems using parametric physics-based Reduced-Order Models (ROMs).
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A central challenge in evaluating the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty in potential asteroid properties and entry parameters, which can vary the resulting ground damage and affected population by orders of magnitude. We are using our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to these uncertainties. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix or vary the different input parameters and compare the damage distributions produced. In this study, we consider local ground damage from blast waves or thermal radiation for impactors 50-500m in diameter. The ongoing goal of this work is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.
The NASA Advanced Composites Project is a multi-year consortium of government, industry and academia to develop and validate technology that will reduce development and certification of advanced composite materials for aircraft structures. One of its tasks is to simulate and predict composite damage progression accurately through high fidelity finite element models. It included a subtask to verify an approach based on the Virtual Crack Closure Technology (VCCT) as well as Floating Node Method (FNM). This paper discusses predicted damage onset and growth in a thin-ply buckling problem. Sensitivity of the simulations to various initial crack length is studied. The compressive load-displacement curves are plotted and the crack growth critical load is predicted. Overall, the crack progression follows simulation benchmarks well. However, the critical-load overshoot phenomenon is observed in both VCCT and FNM, suggesting further investigation may be worth pursuing.
For several years, it has been evident that cellular radiation biology is in a necessary period of consolidation and transition (Lett 1987, 1990; Lett et al. 1986, 1987). Both changes are moving apace, and have been stimulated by studies with heavy charged particles. From the standpoint of radiation chemistry, there is now a consensus of opinion that the DNA hydration shell must be distinguished from bulk water in the cell nucleus and treated as an integral part of DNA (chromatin) (Lett 1987). Concomitantly, sentiment is strengthening for the abandonment of the classical notions of "direct" and "indirect" action (Fielden and O'Neill 1991; O'Neill 1991; O'Neill et al. 1991; Schulte-Frohlinde and Bothe 1991 and references therein). A layer of water molecules outside, or in the outer edge of, the DNA (chromatin) hydration shell influences cellular radiosensitivity in ways not fully understood. Charge and energy transfer processes facilitated by, or involving, DNA hydration must be considered in rigorous theories of radiation action on cells. The induction and processing of double stand breaks (DSBs) in DNA (chromatin) seem to be the predominant determinants of the radiotoxicity of normally radioresistant mammalian cells, the survival curves of which reflect the patterns of damage induced and the damage present after processing ceases, and can be modelled in formal terms by the use of reaction (enzyme) kinetics. Incongruities such as sublethal damage are neither scientifically sound nor relevant to cellular radiation biology (Calkins 1991; Lett 1990; Lett et al. 1987a). Increases in linear energy transfer (LET infinity) up to 100-200 keV micron-1 cause increases in the extents of neighboring chemical and physical damage in DNA denoted by the general term DSB. Those changes are accompanied by decreasing abilities of cells normally radioresistant to sparsely ionizing radiations to process DSBs in DNA and chromatin and to recover from radiation exposure, so they make significant contributions to the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of a given radiation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).
A new three-dimensional finite element model of two-dimensional triaxially braided composites is presented in this paper. This meso-scale modeling technique is used to examine and predict the deformation and damage observed in tests of straight sided specimens. A unit cell based approach is used to take into account the braiding architecture as well as the mechanical properties of the fiber tows, the matrix and the fiber tow-matrix interface. A 0 deg / plus or minus 60 deg. braiding configuration has been investigated by conducting static finite element analyses. Failure initiation and progressive degradation has been simulated in the fiber tows by use of the Hashin failure criteria and a damage evolution law. The fiber tow-matrix interface was modeled by using a cohesive zone approach to capture any fiber-matrix debonding. By comparing the analytical results to those obtained experimentally, the applicability of the developed model was assessed and the failure process was investigated.
Two rectangular wing models with a hole have been designed and tested in the Duke University wind tunnel to better understand the effects of damage. A rectangular hole is used to simulate damage. The wing with a hole is modeled structurally as a thin elastic plate using the finite element method. The unsteady aerodynamics of the plate-like wing with a hole is modeled using the doublet lattice method. The aeroelastic equations of motion are derived using Lagrange's equation. The flutter boundary is found using the V-g method. The hole's location effects the wing's mass, stiffness, aerodynamics and therefore the aeroelastic behavior. Linear theoretical models were shown to be capable of predicting the critical flutter velocity and frequency as verified by wind tunnel tests.
We have developed a computer monitor of nuclear DNA in the form of chromatin fibre. The fibres are modeled as a ideal solenoid consisting of twenty helical turns with six nucleosomes per turn. The chromatin model, in combination with are Monte Carlo theory of radiation damage induces by charged particles, based on general features of tack structure and stopping power theory, has been used to evaluate the influence of DNA structure on initial damage. An interesting has emerged from our calculations. Our calculated results predict the existence of strong spatial correlations in damage sites associated with the symmetries in the solenoidal model. We have calculated spectra of short fragments of double stranded DNA produced by multiple double strand breaks induced by both high and low LET radiation. The spectra exhibit peaks at multiples of approximately 85 base pairs (the nucleosome periodicity), and approximately 1000 base pairs (solenoid periodicity). Preliminary experiments to investigate the fragment distributions from irradiated DNA, made by B. Rydberg at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, confirm the existence of short DNA fragments and are in substantial agreement with the predictions of our theory.
Tools for Engine Diagnostics is a major task in the Propulsion System Health Management area of the Single Aircraft Accident Prevention project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program. The major goal of the Aviation Safety Program is to reduce fatal aircraft accidents by 80 percent within 10 years and by 90 percent within 25 years. The goal of the Propulsion System Health Management area is to eliminate propulsion system malfunctions as a primary or contributing factor to the cause of aircraft accidents. The purpose of Tools for Engine Diagnostics, a 2-yr-old task, is to establish and improve tools for engine diagnostics and prognostics that measure the deformation and damage of rotating engine components at the ground level and that perform intermittent or continuous monitoring on the engine wing. In this work, nondestructive-evaluation- (NDE-) based technology is combined with model-dependent disk spin experimental simulation systems, like finite element modeling (FEM) and modal norms, to monitor and predict rotor damage in real time. Fracture mechanics time-dependent fatigue crack growth and damage-mechanics-based life estimation are being developed, and their potential use investigated. In addition, wireless eddy current and advanced acoustics are being developed for on-wing and just-in-time NDE engine inspection to provide deeper access and higher sensitivity to extend on-wing capabilities and improve inspection readiness. In the long run, these methods could establish a base for prognostic sensing while an engine is running, without any overt actions, like inspections. This damage-detection strategy includes experimentally acquired vibration-, eddy-current- and capacitance-based displacement measurements and analytically computed FEM-, modal norms-, and conventional rotordynamics-based models of well-defined damages and critical mass imbalances in rotating disks and rotors.
We present a novel microcrack-damage theory for brittle solids under compression. Instead of using internal variables like zeroth, second or fourth rank damage tensors, the state of material damage is represented by an internal function that encapsulates the information of direction, density and size of microcracks. Just like other internal variables, the evolution of this state function must obey the second law of thermodynamics for arbitrary loading paths. This is done by casting the model in the framework of continuous hyperplasticity and enforcing a non-negative dissipation rate functional. The proposed framework offers predictions on the continuous evolution of microcrack density and the induced material anisotropy along with the macroscopic stress-strain curves. The use of continuous damage function grants the model significantly enhanced resolution in characterizing the direction-dependent response of cracked solids compared to classical models that are based on damage tensors. Two scenarios are considered in developing the theory, one assumes frictionless cracks and the other incorporates friction between crack surfaces. The results highlight that inelasticity, pressure dependence, and loading-unloading hysteresis exhibited by brittle solids are natural consequences of frictional microcracks. The proposed theory offers a generic and versatile framework to upscale micromechanical processes operating at individual crack scale to explain the macroscopic behavior of cracked solids.
The probabilistic structural analysis program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress; Cruse et al., 1988) is applied to characterize the dynamic loading and response of the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) LOX post. The design and operation of the SSME are reviewed; the LOX post structure is described; and particular attention is given to the generation of composite load spectra, the finite-element model of the LOX post, and the steps in the NESSUS structural analysis. The results are presented in extensive tables and graphs, and it is shown that NESSUS correctly predicts the structural effects of changes in the temperature loading. The probabilistic approach also facilitates (1) damage assessments for a given failure model (based on gas temperature, heat-shield gap, and material properties) and (2) correlation of the gas temperature with operational parameters such as engine thrust.
ABSTRACT Accurate modeling of fracture nucleation and propagation in brittle and ductile materials subjected to dynamic loading is important in predicting material damage and failure under extreme conditions. Phase‐field fracture models have garnered a lot of attention in recent years due to their success in representing damage and fracture processes in a wide class of materials and under a variety of loading conditions. Second‐order phase‐field fracture models are by far the most popular among researchers (and increasingly, among practitioners), but fourth‐order models have started to gain broader acceptance since their more recent introduction. The exact solution corresponding to these high‐order phase‐field fracture models has higher regularity. Thus, numerical solutions of the model equations can achieve improved accuracy and higher spatial convergence rates. In this work, we develop a virtual element framework for the high‐order phase‐field model of dynamic fracture. The virtual element method (VEM) can be regarded as a generalization of the classical finite element method. In addition to many other desirable characteristics, the VEM allows computing on polytopal meshes. Here, we use ‐conforming virtual elements and the generalized‐ time integration method for the momentum balance equation, and adopt ‐conforming virtual elements for the high‐order phase‐field equation. We verify our virtual element framework using classical quasi‐static benchmark problems and demonstrate its capabilities with the aid of numerical simulations of dynamic fracture in brittle materials.
The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.
The fatigue damage of a space propulsion system component is computed using probabilistic structural analysis methods. The analysis takes into account the variations in static and dynamic loads, the uncertainty in structural damping, and the scatter in material fatigue resistance. The key elements of the probabilistic approach include: (1) a numerical engine model for describing the global component interface loads consistent with engine balance, (2) models for computing the local mode boundary conditions on the component, (3) a static structural analysis model that captures the strains at a damage critical location as a function of engine performance variables, (4) a finite element model for assessment of the random amplitude stress response due to random base and pressure excitations with uncertain power and correlation length, and (5) advanced first order reliability methods for computing the probabilities associated with the fatigue damage.
Irinotecan treats a range of solid tumors, but its effectiveness is severely limited by gastrointestinal (GI) tract toxicity caused by gut bacterial β-glucuronidase (GUS) enzymes. Targeted bacterial GUS inhibitors have been shown to partially alleviate irinotecan-induced GI tract damage and resultant diarrhea in mice. Here, we unravel the mechanistic basis for GI protection by gut microbial GUS inhibitors using in vivo models. We use in vitro, in fimo, and in vivo models to determine whether GUS inhibition alters the anticancer efficacy of irinotecan. We demonstrate that a single dose of irinotecan increases GI bacterial GUS activity in 1 d and reduces intestinal epithelial cell proliferation in 5 d, both blocked by a single dose of a GUS inhibitor. In a tumor xenograft model, GUS inhibition prevents intestinal toxicity and maintains the antitumor efficacy of irinotecan. Remarkably, GUS inhibitor also effectively blocks the striking irinotecan-induced bloom of Enterobacteriaceae in immune-deficient mice. In a genetically engineered mouse model of cancer, GUS inhibition alleviates gut damage, improves survival, and does not alter gut microbial composition; however, by allowing dose intensification, it dramatically improves irinotecan’s effectiveness, reducing tumors to a fraction of that achieved by irinotecan alone, while simultaneously promoting epithelial regeneration. These results indicate that targeted gut microbial enzyme inhibitors can improve cancer chemotherapeutic outcomes by protecting the gut epithelium from microbial dysbiosis and proliferative crypt damage.
NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.
In conventional wellbore-integrity analysis, the cement sheath’s initial state of stress and transient thermoporoelastic effects are often neglected. However, the initial state of stress is prerequisite information for accurately predicting the safe operating conditions that prevent a cemented well from being damaged. In addition, transient thermoporoelastic effects can have a profound effect on when damage will occur. Here in this paper, we propose a model that includes these effects to predict the safe operating pressures and temperatures that will prevent cement-sheath failure. For the initial state of stress, we proposed an empirical model using measurements. Subsequent stress changes are evaluated by a fully coupled transient thermoporoelastic model to analyze the mechanical behavior of the cement sheath. We predict the safe operating envelope (SOE) for shear, tensile, and debonding cement-sheath failures caused by pressure and temperature perturbations after the cement sets. Our model predicts that pore pressure is a key factor for cement failure, especially for rapid temperature changes. If the formation is low permeability, the transient pore pressures are amplified, causing the risk of damage to increase. Compared with conventional thermoelastic models, the thermoporoelastic model predicts a smaller SOE when heating the internal casing fluid and a larger envelope when cooling the internal casing fluid. Finally, the heating rate was considered with respect to field applications. The heating rate was also considered, and slower heating/cooling rates can prevent damage to the cement sheath. Finally, the thermoporoelastic model was applied to explain several laboratory and field experiments and achieved good matches.
The NetFlow Dynamics (NFD) model was developed for estimating the availability of a commodity supplied by a national- or regional-scale infrastructure following unexpected disruption of one or more of its components. The large scope of the disruptions of interest produce changes in availability lasting days to weeks. Consequently, the model does not resolve daily variations in system state and does not include the long-term processes that cause infrastructures to evolve as assets are added and removed according to owners ’planning decisions. NFD simulates fluid flow, including petroleum and other incompressible fluids, as well as natural gas and other compressible fluids, through pipeline networks characterized by limits on transmission capacity and storage. It was designed to enable efficient exploration of possible transmission system responses to large-scale disruptions lasting for days or longer. The model formulation reflects constraints on transmission and storage capacity imposed by the physical system assets. Those capacity limits are input parameters and are not derived from more basic system properties such as pipeline diameters and compressor power. A system’s response to a large disruption is controlled by operational decisions as well as damage to physical assets. The NFD model formulation allows users to efficiently consider alternative scenarios about the way remaining capacity might be used so that the analysis result appropriately reflects uncertainties about operator response.
Here, the shear strength and hydraulic permeability of the interface between well cement and casing was investigated using a triaxial direct shear apparatus. For the first time, these experiments provide measurements under controlled stress conditions with fluid flow measurements along the interface. The low cohesion (1.1 ± 1.1 MPa) and the high friction angle (43.4 ± 2.0°) indicates that the shear strength of the interface is provided by friction. This implies that the state of stress of the cement is critical to well integrity. The hydraulic aperture of the undamaged cement-steel samples was 6.8 ± 1.0 microns. Shear damage to the interface caused a decrease (-20 %) in hydraulic aperture for samples aged up to 1 month, and an increase (+300 %) for samples cured for two years. We performed numerical simulations to estimate the leakage potential from a carbon storage operation. This model predicts negligible leakage amounts (47 tonnes) in a shear-damaged well for the modeled injection of ~1.26 million tonnes of CO 2 . Thus, our measurements indicate that the cement-casing interface is not a significant leakage pathway in its intact or damaged state, and that shear-driven failure scenarios for this interface are not a significant risk to CO 2 storage security.