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NASA NTRS1974

Geomagnetic responses to the solar wind and to solar activity

A unified overview of present knowledge of the geomagnetic response to the dynamic solar wind is reported. The formation of the magnetosphere and the magnetospheric tail is discussed the importance of electric fields is stressed, and the magnetospheric convection of plasma and frozen-in magnetic field lines under the influence of large scale magnetospheric electric fields is outlined. Ionospheric electric fields and currents are intimately related to electric fields and currents in the magnetosphere and the strong coupling between the two regions is discussed. The energy input of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere is discussed in terms of the reconnection model where interplanetary magnetic field lines merge or connect with the terrestrial field on the sunward side of the magnetosphere. The merging model emphasizes the importance of the interplanetary magnetic field and especially the north-south component. The solar sector structure with its organized magnetic field and embeeded high speed plasma streams is identified as the source of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances while flare associated interplanetary shock waves are the source of most violet and sporadic geomagnetic storms.

Svalgaard, L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Impact of Ring Current Ions on Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Wave Dispersion Relation

Effect of the ring current ions in the real part of electromagnetic ion Cyclotron wave dispersion relation is studied on global scale. Recent Cluster observations by Engebretson et al. showed that although the temperature anisotropy of is energetic (> 10 keV) ring current protons was high during the entire 22 November 2003 perigee pass, electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves were observed only in conjunction with intensification of the ion fluxes below 1 keV by over an order of magnitude. To study the effect of the ring current ions on the wave dispersive properties and the corresponding global wave redistribution, we use a self-consistent model of interacting ring current and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows: First, the plasma density enhancement in the night MLT sector during the main and recovery storm phases is mostly caused by injection of suprathermal plasma sheet H + (approximately < 1 keV), which dominate the thermal plasma density. Second, during the recovery storm phases, the ring current modification of the wave dispersion relation leads to a qualitative change of the wave patterns in the postmidnight-dawn sector for L > 4.75. This "new" wave activity is well organized by outward edges of dense suprathermal ring current spots, and the waves are not observed if the ring current ions are not included in the real part of dispersion relation. Third, the most intense wave-induced ring current precipitation is located in the night MLT sector and caused by modification of the wave dispersion relation. The strongest precipitating fluxes of about 8 X 10(exp 6)/ (cm(exp 2) - s X st) are found near L=5.75, MLT=2 during the early recovery phase on 4 May. Finally, the nightside precipitation is more intense than the dayside fluxes, even if there are less intense waves, because the convection field moves ring current ions into the loss cone on the nightside, but drives them out of the loss cone on the dayside. So convection and wave scattering reinforce each other in the nightside, but interfere in the dayside sector.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2010

Can the Plasmaspheric Plume Significantly Contribute to Magnetosheath Densities?

Intervals of strong magnetospheric convection electric fields can result in the removal of large portions of the outer plasmasphere and its transport to the vicinity of the magnetopause. Of growing interest is the disposition of that plasma and its possible influence on the processes operating in the regions contributed to by this dense thermal plasma of ionospheric origin. Plasmaspheric plasma may recirculate within the outer magnetosphere through the flanks to become part of the plasmasheet, be entrained on reconnected magnetic field lines drawn anti-sunward over the polar cap, or be lost into the magnetosheath flow and into the solar wind. Of interest here is whether it is reasonable to anticipate that the plume material is sufficient to contribute substantially to magnetosheath densities at the magnetopause where it could influence reconnection between the interplanetary and terrestrial magnetic fields. We present the results of model simulations of plasmaspheric plume and magnetosheath plasmas in the context of several storm-time event periods. Plume and magnetosheath densities are compared as a function of location and storm phase. The short answer is, "yes", but not always and not at all locations. The full answer will be presented.

Gallagher, Dennis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dependence of Cumulus Anvil Radiative Properties on Environmental Conditions in the Tropical West Pacific

Areally extensive, optically thick anvil clouds associated with mesoscale convective clusters dominate the shortwave cloud forcing in the tropics and provide longwave forcing comparable to that of thin cirrus. Changes in the cover and optical thickness of tropical anvils as climate warms can regulate the sign of cloud feedback. As a prelude to the study of MMCR data from the ARM TWP sites, we analyze ISCCP-derived radiative characteristics of anvils observed in the tropical west Pacific during the TOGA-COARE IOP. Anvils with radius greater than 100 km were identified and tracked from inception to decay using the Machado-Rossow algorithm. Corresponding environmental conditions just prior to the start of the convectove event were diagnosed using the Lin-Johnson objective analysis product. Small clusters (100-200 km radius) are observed to have a broad range of optical thicknesses (10-50), while intermediate optical thickness clusters are observed to range in size from 100 km to almost 1000 km. Large-size clusters appear to be favored by strong pre-storm large scale upward motion throughout the troposphere, moist low-to-midlevel relative humidities, environments with slightly higher CAPE than those for smaller clusters, and strong front-to-rear flow. Optically thick anvils are favored in situations of strong low-level moisture convergence and strong upper-level shear.

Ye, B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnection to the Location of ENSO Heating

The Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to anomalous convection in the tropical western and eastern Pacific Ocean is distinctly different. The response to westward-located heating has a meridional dipole in the South Pacific with large zonal scale and appears unable to be interpreted simply as a stationary Rossby wave train that disperses poleward and eastward from a tropical source like the meridionally arched response to eastward-located heating. Here, this study investigates the cause of this asymmetry by examining the daily evolution of the response to suddenly switching on steady diabatic heating over a western and central/eastern equatorial Pacific location using large-ensemble integrations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. We focus on the austral winter months when the subtropical jet supports the development of an effective Rossby wave source in the subtropical westerlies and acts as a waveguide. We show that the subtropical jet strongly influences the height response to the western tropical Pacific heating, promoting prominent zonal circumglobal propagation. Development of a transient eddy feedback in the extratropical storm track after approximately 10 days appears to play a primary role in establishing the time-mean response, which we test through comparison with similar experiments conducted using a simplified linear model. Conversely, the height anomalies for eastern tropical Pacific heating, farther away from the subtropical jet core, have larger meridional propagation, dispersing in a typical Hoskins–Karoly manner into the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, while the transient eddy feedback plays a secondary role for the establishment of the steady response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Overview of the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4)

The Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) is a series of field research investigations sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The fourth field campaign in the CAMEX series (CAMEX-4) was recently conducted during 16 August - 24 September 2001 using the Jacksonville Naval Air Station in Florida as the main base of operations. CAMEX-4 focused on the study of tropical cyclone (hurricane) development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts using NASA-funded aircraft and surface remote sensing instrumentation. The results of this study will be used to address key issues pertinent to a larger NASA ESE study of the global water cycle as well as to provide synergistic contributions to the research goals of the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Hurricanes At Landfall Initiative of the United States Weather Research Program. All CAMEX-4 aircraft missions were planned and jointly conducted with NOAA aircraft to insure comprehensive sampling. An overview of preliminary observations of Tropical Storms Chantal and Gabrielle as well as Hurricanes Erin and Humberto will be presented.

Hood, Robbie↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of the Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper Products at the Spring Program and Summer Experiment

Since 2010, the de facto Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) demonstration product has been the Pseudo‐Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) product suite. Originally prepared for the Hazardous Weather Testbed's Spring Program (specifically the Experimental Warning Program) when only four ground‐based lightning mapping arrays were available, the effort now spans collaborations with several institutions and eight collaborative networks. For 2013, NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory have worked to collaborate with each network to obtain data in real‐time. This has gone into producing the SPoRT variant of the PGLM that was demonstrated in AWIPS II for the 2013 Spring Program. Alongside the PGLM products, the SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool also was evaluated to assess not just another visualization of future GLM data but how to best extract more information while in the operational environment. Specifically, this tool addressed the leading request by forecasters during evaluations; provide a time series trend of total lightning in real‐time. In addition to the Spring Program, SPoRT is providing the PGLM "mosaic" to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Storm Prediction Center. This is the same as what is used at the Hazardous Weather Testbed, but combines all available networks into one display for use at the national centers. This year, the mosaic was evaluated during the AWC's Summer Experiment. An important distinction between this and the Spring Program is that the Summer Experiment focuses on the national center perspective and not at the local forecast office level. Specifically, the Summer Experiment focuses on aviation needs and concerns and brings together operational forecaster, developers, and FAA representatives. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of SPoRT's pseudo‐GLM products in these separate test beds. The emphasis will be on how future GLM observations can support operations at both the local and national scale and how the PGLM was used in combination with other lightning data sets. Evaluations for the PGLM were quite favorable with forecasters appreciating the high temporal resolution, the ability to look for rapid increases in lightning activity ahead of severe weather, as well as situational awareness for where convection is firing and for flight routing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Geomagnetic responses to the solar wind and the solar activity

Following some historical notes, the formation of the magnetosphere and the magnetospheric tail is discussed. The importance of electric fields is stressed and the magnetospheric convection of plasma and magnetic field lines under the influence of large-scale magnetospheric electric fields is outlined. Ionospheric electric fields and currents are intimately related to electric fields and currents in the magnetosphere and the strong coupling between the two regions is discussed. The energy input of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere is discussed in terms of the reconnection model where interplanetary magnetic field lines merge or connect with the terrestrial field on the sunward side of the magnetosphere. The merged field lines are then stretched behind earth to form the magnetotail so that kinetic energy from the solar wind is converted into magnetic energy in the field lines in the tail. Localized collapses of the crosstail current, which is driven by the large-scale dawn/dusk electric field in the magnetosphere, divert part of this current along geomagnetic field lines to the ionosphere, causing substorms with auroral activity and magnetic disturbances. The collapses also inject plasma into the radiation belts and build up a ring current. Frequent collapses in rapid succession constitute the geomagnetic storm.

Svalgaard, L.↗

NASA NTRS2023

NASA’s Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), From A Precipitation Perspective

NASA is developing the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission as part of its Earth System Observatory (ESO) in response to priorities identified in the 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. AOS addresses the Decadal Survey’s call for missions measuring the targeted observables “clouds, convection, and precipitation”; “aerosol and cloud radiative properties”, and “aerosol vertical profiles”. AOS is currently in Phase A, the concept and technology development phase, with plans for satellite launches in the late 2020’s and early 2030’s, and suborbital measurements to include field campaigns after those satellite launches. Key precipitation-related instrumentation includes Doppler radars capable of measuring clouds and precipitation, and passive microwave radiometers with channels between 89-700 GHz. Other instrumentation includes dual-wavelength backscatter lidars, a multi-wavelength and multi-angle polarimeter, a far infrared imaging radiometer, and aerosol and moisture limb sounders that will contribute to studies of coupled aerosol-cloud-precipitation processes. From the perspective of precipitation science, a Ku-band Doppler radar in a 55° inclined orbit provided by JAXA will continue the heritage of precipitation radar measurements made by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), while adding information about Doppler-derived particle vertical motions. With assumptions about particle terminal velocities, the Doppler measurements will enable estimates of the vertical air motion in storms. A higher frequency (W and/or Ka band) radar on a satellite in a polar sun-synchronous orbit will add similar information with greater sensitivity to clouds and to light precipitation. Passive microwave radiometers for AOS will be less capable than those from TRMM and GPM from a precipitation-measurement perspective, but more capable of adding information about cloud processes. Synergies among these and other instruments are expected to advance process-level understanding of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation.

Daniel J Cecil↗

NASA NTRS1987

Downdrafts within High Plains cumulonimbi. I - General kinematic structure

Results from a comprehensive investigation in which observations from several case studies are integrated with three-dimensional cloud model results to examine the general kinematic structure of downdrafts associated with High Plains precipitating convection are presented. One particular downdraft type, the low-level precipitation-associated downdraft, is the focus of this paper. General airflow and trajectory patterns within low-level downdrafts are convergent from 0.8 km upwards to downdraft top, typically less than 5 km AGL. Observed mass flux profiles often increase rapidly with height as a result of strong buoyancy forcing below the melting level. Inflow to the low-level downdraft, although vertically continuous can be separated into two branches. The up-down branch originating within the planetary boundary layer initially rises up to 4 km and then descends within the main precipitation-associated downdraft. The midlevel branch, usually more pronounced during early downdraft stages, originates from above the PBL and transports low-valued theta sub e air to low levels. The depth of the low-level downdraft can be approximated by the environmental sounding transition level, defined as the vertical height interval separating conditionally unstable to neutral air below from roughly stable air above. The low-level downdraft is most frequently located along the upshear storm flank relative to the updraft, although a downshear downdraft may become common under higher environmental wind shear.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Factors Affecting the Evolution of Hurricane Erin and the Distributions of Hydrometeors: Role of Microphysical Processes

Fine-resolution simulations of Hurricane Erin 2001 are conducted using the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model version 3.5 to investigate the role of thermodynamic, boundary layer and microphysical processes in Erin's growth and maintenance, and their effects on the horizontal and vertical distributions of hydrometeors. Through comparison against radar, radiometer, and dropsonde data collected during the Convection and Moisture Experiment 4, it is seen that realistic simulations of Erin are obtained provided that fine resolution simulations with detailed representations of physical processes are conducted. The principle findings of the study are as follows: 1) a new iterative condensation scheme, which limits the unphysical increase of equivalent potential temperature associated with most condensation schemes, increases the horizontal size of the hurricane, decreases its maximum rainfall rate, reduces its intensity, and makes its eye more moist; 2) in general, microphysical parameterization schemes with more categories of hydrometeors produce more intense hurricanes, larger hydrometeor mixing ratios, and more intense updrafts and downdrafts; 3) the choice of coefficients describing hydrometeor fall velocities has as big of an impact on the hurricane simulations as does choice of microphysical parameterization scheme with no clear relationship between fall velocity and hurricane intensity; and 4) in order for a tropical cyclone to adequately intensify, an advanced boundary layer scheme (e.g., Burk-Thompson scheme) must be used to represent boundary layer processes. The impacts of varying simulations on the horizontal and vertical distributions of different categories of hydrometeor species, on equivalent potential temperature, and on storm updrafts and downdrafts are examined to determine how the release of latent heat feedbacks upon the structure of Erin. In general, all simulations tend to overpredict precipitation rate and hydrometeor mixing ratios. The ramifications of these findings for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclones are discussed.

McFarquhar, Greg M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Microphysics and Radiation Effect of Dust on Saharan Air Layer: An HS3 Case Study

A Saharan air layer (SAL) event associated with a nondeveloping African easterly wave (AEW) over the main development region of the eastern Atlantic was sampled by the NASA Global Hawk aircraft on 24-25 August 2013 during the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign and was simulated with the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model. Airborne, ground-based, and spaceborne measurements were used to evaluate the model performance. The microphysical and radiative effects of dust and other aerosols on the SAL structure and environment were investigated with the factor-separation method. The results indicate that relative to a simulation without dust-radiative and microphysical impacts, Saharan dust and other aerosols heated the SAL air mainly through shortwave heating by the direct aerosol-radiation (AR) effect, resulting in a warmer (up to 0.6 K) and drier (up to 5% RH reduction) SAL and maintaining the strong temperature inversion at the base of the SAL in the presence of predominant longwave cooling. Radiative heating of the dust accentuated a vertical circulation within the dust layer, in which air rose (sank) in the northern (southern) portions of the dust layer. Furthermore, above and to the south of the dust layer, both the microphysical and radiative impacts of dust tended to counter the vertical motions associated with the Hadley circulation, causing a small weakening and southward shift of convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and reduced anvil cloud to the north. Changes in moisture and cloud/precipitation hydrometeors were largely driven by the dust induced changes in vertical motion. Dust strengthened the African easterly jet by up to ~1ms(exp -1) at the southern edge of the jet, primarily through the AR effect, and produced modest increases in vertical wind shear within and in the vicinity of the dust layer. These modulations of the SAL and AEW environment clearly contributed to the nondevelopment of this AEW.

Tao, Zhining↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Remote-Sensing of Hail: Examining the Performance and Biases of Satellite Hail Retrievals Using Aqua MODIS Visible/IR and AMSR-E Passive-Microwave Observations

Hail poses threats to myriad aspects of human life and society, infrastructure, and agriculture. Scientifically, hail can often cause large errors in precipitation retrieval and estimation, posing challenges to establishing the current climatology of severe storms and their future trend in a changing Earth system. Fortunately, hailstorms exhibit distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Approaches that leverage these signatures, however, are not without their pitfalls,: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. Large horizontal areas of smaller scatterers may also meaningfully lower the brightness temperatures, especially if they are able to occupy large portions of the footprint. Radiative transfer simulations show that low frequencies such as 19- and 37-GHz can be scattered to extremely low brightness temperatures by high concentrations of smaller (graupel-sized) ice scatterers, especially in larger features that are more likely to occupy the footprint, which may cause climatologies to overestimate the frequency severe hail. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together, pairing AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis over CONUS, and then explore the performance and challenges of the algorithm when we expand outside the United States into six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain.

Sarah D Bang↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗