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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interoperability and Other Aspects of Guiding Data Producers for the Benefit of End Users

The purpose of this paper is to discuss how the Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Conventions and netCDF standard have influenced the recommendations and guidance provided to producers of data products based on NASA’s Earth observations. It has been long-recognized that interoperable datasets and use of standards and conventions are beneficial to the users of these datasets, especially those who make use of multiple datasets for their research and applications. The Dataset Interoperability Working Group (DIWG), one of NASA’s Earth Science Data System Working Groups (ESDSWGs), was established in 2013, and has developed and published many recommendations. The Data Product Development Guide (DPDG) Working Group, established in 2018 as another of the ESDSWGs, has published a DPDG for Data Producers and a Quick Start Guide, incorporating guidance from many sources, including the recommendations from the DIWG. The DPDG includes recommendations regarding data formats (prominently netCDF-4) and metadata based primarily on the CF Metadata Conventions and the Attribute Convention for Data Discovery (ACDD). In early 2023, it was decided that the Resource Center for Data Producers (RCDP) Working Group be established as another ESDSWG, with the goals of providing all the information relevant and helpful for data producers via an easily accessible website, and of recommending how the DPDG and QSG could be maintained as living documents, given the rapidly changing technologies, and the need for incorporating the experience and feedback from the users of these documents.

Data product development↗

DOE OSTI2023

Applications of Measuring and Valuing Resilience in Energy Systems

The electricity sector is vulnerable to numerous hazards that are being exacerbated by climate change, which can cause an increase in the hazards' frequency and intensity. Consumers, system regulators, system operators, and communities are now preparing to mitigate the increased risks posed by climate change. New York State's energy infrastructure resilience can be increased with targeted investments including but not limited to installing emergency backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, increasing energy efficiency, adding redundancy, investing in restoration and recovery, and hardening critical components. Such investments can reduce the likelihood, impact, and consequences of disruptive events but can also increase capital and operating costs. A barrier to prioritizing investments in resilience is that there is no widely established method for quantifying and assigning the benefits of resilience investments across various stakeholders. Decision-makers need better information detailing the value of resilience improvements. Developing methods to quantify, value, and price resilience helps meet resilience needs in an effective manner that also supports broader societal welfare. This report lays out considerations for quantifying and valuing resilience, discusses the current state of resilience valuation tools, and provides case studies of resilience projects that demonstrate how resilience attributes could be measured while highlighting broader, project-specific challenges to increasing resilience. Further, we present insights into methods and challenges to measuring, valuing, and enacting resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stimulation of Insect Herbivory by Elevated Temperature Outweighs Protection by the Jasmonate Pathway

Rising global temperatures are associated with increases in the geographic range, population size, and feeding voracity of insect herbivores. Although it is well established that the plant hormone jasmonate (JA) promotes durable resistance to many ectothermic herbivores, little is known about how JA-mediated defense is influenced by rising temperatures. Here, we used the Arabidopsis-Trichoplusia ni (cabbage looper) interaction to investigate the relative contribution of JA and elevated temperature to host resistance. Video monitoring of T. ni larval behavior showed that elevated temperature greatly enhanced defoliation by increasing the bite rate and total time spent feeding, whereas loss of resistance in a JA-deficient mutant did not strongly affect these behaviors. The acceleration of insect feeding at elevated temperature was not attributed to decreases in wound-induced JA biosynthesis, expression of JA-responsive genes, or the accumulation of defensive glucosinolates prior to insect challenge. Quantitative proteomic analysis of insect frass, however, provided evidence for a temperature-dependent increase in the production of T. ni digestive enzymes. Our results demonstrate that temperature-driven stimulation of T. ni feeding outweighs the protective effects of JA-mediated resistance in Arabidopsis, thus highlighting a potential threat to plant resilience in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Tundra is a consistent source of CO 2 at a site with progressive permafrost thaw during 6 years of chamber and eddy covariance measurements: Tundra CO 2 Fluxes

Current and future warming of high-latitude ecosystems will play an important role in climate change through feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. This study compares 6 years of CO 2 flux measurements in moist acidic tundra using autochambers and eddy covariance (Tower) approaches. Here, we found that the tundra was an annual source of CO 2 to the atmosphere as indicated by net ecosystem exchange using both methods with a combined mean of 105 ± 17 g CO 2 C m-2 y-1 across methods and years (Tower 87 ± 17 and Autochamber 123 ± 14). Furthermore, the difference between methods was largest early in the observation period, with Autochambers indicated a greater CO 2 source to the atmosphere. This discrepancy diminished through time, and in the final year the Autochambers measured a greater sink strength than tower. Active layer thickness was a significant driver of net ecosystem carbon exchange, gross ecosystem primary productivity, and Reco and could account for differences between Autochamber and Tower. The stronger source initially attributed lower summer season gross primary production (GPP) during the first 3 years, coupled with lower ecosystem respiration (Reco) during the first year. The combined suppression of GPP and Reco in the first year of Autochamber measurements could be the result of the experimental setup. Root damage associated with Autochamber soil collar installation may have lowered the plant community's capacity to fix C, but recovered within 3 years. And while this ecosystem was a consistent CO 2 sink during the summer, CO 2 emissions during the nonsummer months offset summer CO 2 uptake each year.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

An Invariant-Preserving ALE Method for Solids under Extreme Conditions

We are proposing a fundamentally new approach to ALE methods for solids undergoing large deformation due to extreme loading conditions. Our approach is based on a physically-motivated and mathematically rigorous construction of the underlying Lagrangian method, vector/tensor reconstruction, remapping, and interface reconstruction. It is transformational because it deviates dramatically from traditionally accepted ALE methods and provides the following set of unique attributes: (1) a three-dimensional, finite volume, cell-centered ALE framework with advanced hypo-/hyper-elasto-plastic constitutive theories for solids; (2) a new physically and mathematically consistent reconstruction method for vector/tensor fields; (3) advanced invariant-preserving remapping algorithm for vector/tensor quantities; (4) moment-of-fluid (MoF) interface reconstruction technique for multi-material problems with solids undergoing large deformations. This work brings together many new concepts, that in combination with emergent cell-centered Lagrangian hydrodynamics methods will produce a cutting-edge ALE capability and define a new state-of-the-art. Many ideas in this work are new, completely unexplored, and hence high risk. The proposed research and the resulting algorithms will be of immediate use in Eulerian, Lagrangian and ALE codes under the ASC program at the lab. In addition, the research on invariant preserving reconstruction/remap of tensor quantities is of direct interest to ongoing CASL and climate modeling efforts at LANL. The application space impacted by this work includes Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), Z-pinch, munition-target interactions, geological impact dynamics, shock processing of powders and shaped charges. The ALE framework will also provide a suitable test-bed for rapid development and assessment of hypo-/hyper-elasto-plastic constitutive theories. Today, there are no invariant-preserving ALE algorithms for treating solids with large deformations. Therefore, this is a high-impact effort that will significantly advance the state of ALE methods and position LANL as world leaders in advanced ALE methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Extrapolating active layer thickness measurements across Arctic polygonal terrain using LiDAR and NDVI data sets

Landscape attributes that vary with microtopography, such as active layer thickness (ALT), are labor intensive and difficult to document effectively through in situ methods at kilometer spatial extents, thus rendering remotely sensed methods desirable. Spatially explicit estimates of ALT can provide critically needed data for parameterization, initialization, and evaluation of Arctic terrestrial models. In this work, we demonstrate a new approach using high-resolution remotely sensed data for estimating centimeter-scale ALT in a 5 km 2 area of ice-wedge polygon terrain in Barrow, Alaska. We use a simple regression-based, machine learning data-fusion algorithm that uses topographic and spectral metrics derived from multisensor data (LiDAR and WorldView-2) to estimate ALT (2 m spatial resolution) across the study area. Comparison of the ALT estimates with ground-based measurements, indicates the accuracy (r 2 = 0.76, RMSE ±4.4 cm) of the approach. While it is generally accepted that broad climatic variability associated with increasing air temperature will govern the regional averages of ALT, consistent with prior studies, our findings using high-resolution LiDAR and WorldView-2 data, show that smaller-scale variability in ALT is controlled by local eco-hydro-geomorphic factors. This work demonstrates a path forward for mapping ALT at high spatial resolution and across sufficiently large regions for improved understanding and predictions of coupled dynamics among permafrost, hydrology, and land-surface processes from readily available remote sensing data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Investigating the Urban Air Quality Effects of Cool Walls and Cool Roofs in Southern California

Solar reflective cool roofs and walls can be used to mitigate the urban heat island effect. While past research has investigated the climate impacts of adopting cool surfaces, few studies have investigated their effects on air pollution, especially on particulate matter (PM). This study for the first time investigates the influence of widespread deployment of cool walls on urban air pollutant concentrations, and systematically compares cool wall to cool roof effects. Simulations using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) for a representative summertime period show that cool walls and roofs can reduce urban air temperatures, wind speeds, and planetary boundary heights in the Los Angeles Basin. Consequently, increasing wall (roof) albedo by 0.80, an upper bound scenario, leads to maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentration reductions of 0.35 (0.83) ppbv in Los Angeles County. However, cool walls (roofs) increase daily average PM2.5 concentrations by 0.62 (0.85) μg m-3. We investigate the competing processes driving changes in concentrations of speciated PM2.5. Increases in primary PM (elemental carbon and primary organic aerosols) concentrations can be attributed to reductions in ventilation of the Los Angeles Basin. Increases in concentrations of semivolatile species (e.g., nitrate) are mainly driven by increases in gas-to-particle conversion due to reduced atmospheric temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Response to Comments on “Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis”

Our study suggests that the global CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on vegetation photosynthesis has declined during the past four decades. The Comments suggest that the temporal inconsistency in AVHRR data and the attribution method undermine the results’ robustness. Here, we provide additional evidence that these arguments did not affect our finding and that the global decline in CFE is robust.

evapotranspiration↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sharp decline of dust events induces regional wetting over arid and semi-arid Northwest China in the NCAR Community atmosphere model

Abstract Multiple lines of observational evidence have indicated a significant wetting over the arid and semi-arid Northwest China (NWC) during recent decades, coinciding with a simultaneous sharp decline of dust events. Although recent studies have attributed NWC wetting to different anthropogenic and natural forcings, the mechanisms are not definitive and the regional wetting has been greatly underestimated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations. Based on sensitivity experiments with different dust emission amounts using the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), here we find that decreasing dusts exert significant impacts on mixed-phase clouds through reducing the concentration of ice nucleating particles, increase the NWC precipitation and thus induce regional wetting through enhancing convection precipitation. A possible convection invigoration mechanism whereby the atmospheric vertical temperature gradient and convective instability are strengthened by reduced dusts, leading to convection invigoration and increased precipitation. These results are reinforced by simulations over the dust region in North Africa where mixed-phase and ice clouds are rare and reduced dusts do not increase precipitation. This study highlights the possible mechanism of dust-ice cloud interactions in recent NWC wetting and future regional climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Observational evidence against strongly stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks

In this paper, we present a method to attribute cloud radiative feedbacks to convective processes, using subcloud layer buoyancy as a diagnostic of stable and deep convective regimes. Applying this approach to tropical remote sensing measurements over years 2000–2016 shows that an inferred negative short-term cloud feedback from deep convection was nearly offset by a positive cloud feedback from stable regimes. The net cloud feedback was within statistical uncertainty of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with historical forcings, with discrepancies in the partitioning of the cloud feedback into convective regimes. Compensation between high-cloud responses to tropics-wide warming in stable and unstable regimes resulted in smaller net changes in high-cloud fraction with warming. In addition, deep convection and associated high clouds set in at warmer temperatures in response to warming, as a consequence of nearly invariant subcloud buoyancy. Lastly, this invariance further constrained the magnitude of cloud radiative feedbacks and is consistent with climate model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Updated Umkehr Ozone Retrieval Algorithm and its Validation against Satellite Data

Improvements to the Umkehr ozone profile retrieval algorithm have been developed and are now being evaluated. The updated algorithm is able to simulate observations more accurately and provides data output that is easier to analyze. Among the new diagnostic capabilities that the updated algorithm provides is the averaging kernel (AK) method. The AK approach allows studying how the algorithm responds when a small perturbation is made in a particular layer of the atmosphere [Rodgers 1976, 1990]. We will use the AK method to define precisely what Umkehr should measure given a set of profiles measured by other platforms. This method allows us to compare trends and offsets in data more accurately than it has been done in the past. The updated Umkehr retrievals will be validated against SAGE II ozone profiles as well as SSBUV ozone profile data. We will discuss possible reasons for offset between data and differences in derived ozone profile trends. Considerable variability of the ozone profile within the 10-degree latitude envelope creates noise in the SAGE matching dataset and makes comparisons difficult. To eliminate this problem, the SAGE and Umkehr data had been previously de-seasonalized by subtracting the latitude/season dependent ozone climatology. However, the remaining noise in the ozone residuals was still considerably high for trend analysis and was attributed to longitude variability of SAGE sampling. The new ozone climatology (Labow, NASA) that has longitude dependent ozone variability will be used to minimize contribution of sampling noise in comparisons of satellite and ground station. The comparison of zenith-sky radiances (Umkehr N-value measurements) synthesized for a given set of SAGE profiles will be used to determine whether SAGE-derived N-values agree with the Umkehr-measured N-values. The instrumental effects will be discussed. Both the Umkehr data and SAGE II measurements will be analyzed for their information about ozone variability and loss and recovery rates at the mid- and upper (40 km) levels. The updated long-term Umkehr dataset can be used to provide high quality information for identifying signs of ozone recovery. The long Umkehr historical record can provide additional information for separating the dynamic and chemical mechanisms of depletion, and can help the community better understand climate change effects.

Petropavlovskikh, I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne Observations of Aerosol Properties in Southeast Asia: Overview of Emissions, Cloud Processing, and Long Range Transport during NASA CAMP2Ex

The Southwest Monsoon represents an important synoptic scale meteorological feature that modulates precipitation throughout Southeast Asia. In addition, southwesterly flow can funnel large amounts of biomass burning aerosol into heavily populated areas throughout the Philippines, mixing with urban emissions and representing a significant air quality issue. From a climate perspective, understanding interactions between these particles and clouds has important societal ramifications through frequent extreme periods of flood and drought. Here we present airborne observations made in support of the NASA CAMP2Ex (Cloud and Aerosol Monsoonal Processes-Philippines Experiment) mission aboard the Wallops Flight Facility P-3 research aircraft, based at Clark International Airport in the Luzon region of Northern Philippines. Nineteen research flights were conducted in August-October of 2019. An extensive suite of aerosol microphysical, optical, and chemical instrumentation was deployed, along with trace gas and remote sensing measurements, to characterize aerosol emissions and their vertical/spatial variability associated with moderately convective marine cloud systems in the region. Analysis will focus on characterizing disparate aerosol sources with respect to derived chemical and optical properties relevant to global circulation modeling. For example, higher than expected mass scattering efficiencies for aged biomass burning emissions, derived from a combination of nephelometer and aerosol mass spectrometer measurements, are attributed to increased particle size and decreased density. Results will also illustrate the evolution of aerosols from Indonesian agricultural biomass burning activities into the Philippines region, in comparison with urban emissions from the megacity Manila and transported air masses from mainland Asia.

Luke David Ziemba↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and Evaluation of Chemistry‐Aerosol‐Climate Model CAM5‐Chem‐MAM7‐MOSAIC: Global Atmospheric Distribution and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract An advanced aerosol treatment, with a focus on semivolatile nitrate formation, is introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with interactive chemistry (CAM5‐chem) by coupling the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) with the 7‐mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7). An important feature of MOSAIC is dynamic partitioning of all condensable gases to the different fine and coarse mode aerosols, as governed by mode‐resolved thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Applied in the free‐running mode from 1995 to 2005 with prescribed historical climatological conditions, the model simulates global distributions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in good agreement with observations and previous studies. Inclusion of nitrate resulted in ∼10% higher global average accumulation mode number concentrations, indicating enhanced growth of Aitken mode aerosols from nitrate formation. While the simulated accumulation mode nitrate burdens are high over the anthropogenic source regions, the sea‐salt and dust modes respectively constitute about 74% and 17% of the annual global average nitrate burden. Regional clear‐sky shortwave radiative cooling of up to −5 W m −2 due to nitrate is seen, with a much smaller global average cooling of −0.05 W m −2 . Significant enhancements in regional cloud condensation nuclei (at 0.1% supersaturation) and cloud droplet number concentrations are also attributed to nitrate, causing an additional global average shortwave cooling of −0.8 W m −2 . Taking into consideration of changes in both longwave and shortwave radiation under all‐sky conditions, the net change in the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes induced by including nitrate aerosol is −0.7 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Atmospheric Response to Subgrid Surface Heterogeneity in the Single-Column Community Earth System Model, Version 2 (CESM2)

Land-atmosphere interactions are central to the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer and the subsequent formation of clouds and precipitation. Existing global climate models represent these connections with bulk approximations on coarse spatial scales, but observations suggest that small-scale variations in surface characteristics and co-located turbulent and momentum fluxes can significantly impact the atmosphere. Recent model development efforts have attempted to capture this phenomenon by coupling existing representations of subgrid-scale (SGS) heterogeneity between land and atmosphere models. Such approaches are in their infancy and it is not yet clear if they can produce a realistic atmospheric response to surface heterogeneity. Here, we implement a parameterization to capture the effects of SGS heterogeneity in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), and compare single-column simulations against high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) large-eddy simulations (LESs), which we use as a proxy for observations. The CESM2 experiments increase the temperature and humidity variances in the lowest atmospheric levels, but the response is weaker than in WRF-LES. In part, this is attributed to an underestimate of surface heterogeneity in the land model due to a lack of SGS meteorology, a separation between deep and shallow convection schemes in the atmosphere, and a lack of explicitly represented mesoscale secondary circulations. These results highlight the complex processes involved in capturing the effects of SGS heterogeneity and suggest the need for parameterizations that communicate their influence not only at the surface but also vertically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterizing the Vertical Processes of Ozone in Colorado's Front Range Using the GSFC Ozone Dial

Although characterizing the interactions of ozone throughout the entire troposphere are important for health and climate processes, there is a lack of routine measurements of vertical profiles within the United States. In order to monitor this lower ozone more effectively, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center TROPospheric OZone DIfferential Absorption Lidar (GSFC TROPOZDIAL) has been developed and validated within the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet). Two scientifically interesting ozone episodes are presented that were observed during the 2014 Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER AQ) campaign at Ft. Collins,Colorado.The first case study, occurring between 22-23 July 2014, indicates enhanced concentrations of ozone at Ft. Collins during nighttime hours, which was due to the complex recirculation of ozone within the foothills of the Rocky Mountain region. Although quantifying the ozone increase a loft during recirculation episodes has been historically difficult, results indicate that an increase of 20 -30 ppbv of ozone at the Ft. Collins site has been attributed to this recirculation. The second case, occurring between Aug 4-8th 2014, characterizes a dynamical exchange of ozone between the stratosphere and the troposphere. This case, along with seasonal model parameters from previous years, is used to estimate the stratospheric contribution to the Rocky Mountain region. Results suggest that a large amount of stratospheric air is residing in the troposphere in the summertime near Ft. Collins, CO. The results also indicate that warmer tropopauses are correlated with an increase in stratospheric air below the tropopause in the Rocky Mountain Region.

Sullivan, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Process-Oriented Analysis of Dominant Sources of Uncertainty in the Land Carbon Sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Attribution↗