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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Importance Sampling for Bayesian Model Calibration with Spatio-Temporal Data

This paper addresses two challenges in Bayesian calibration: 1) computational speed of existing sampling algorithms, and 2) calibration with spatio-temporal responses. The commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches require many sequential model evaluations making the computational expense prohibitive. This paper proposes an efficient sampling algorithm: iterative importance sampling with genetic algorithm (IISGA). While iterative importance sampling enables computational efficiency, the genetic algorithm enables robustness by preventing sample degeneration and avoids getting stuck in multimodal search spaces. An inflated likelihood further enables robustness in high-dimensional parameter spaces by enlarging the target distribution. Spatio-temporal data complicate both surrogate modeling, which is necessary for expensive computational models, and the likelihood estimation. In this work, singular value decomposition is investigated for reducing the high-dimensional field data to a lower-dimensional space prior to Bayesian calibration. Then the likelihood is formulated and Bayesian inference is performed in the lower-dimension, latent space. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate IISGA relative to existing sampling methods, and then IISGA is employed to calibrate a thermal battery model with 26 uncertain calibration parameters and spatio-temporal response data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Decision trees for incorporating the likelihood of excessive hydrologic alteration into hydropower-ecosystem tradeoffs

Detrimental ecological impacts have often been observed or anticipated when changes in streamflow indicators exceed percent deviation thresholds believed to be ecologically critical. Yet, short pre- and post-impact flow records often make it difficult to determine whether changes exceeding tolerable thresholds are due to dam operations or natural variability. Through a hypothetical reservoir operations example, we incorporate the uncertainty of dam-induced streamflow changes into a Bayesian decision tree framework that evaluates tradeoffs between expected regrets associated with hydropower and ecology. The likelihood of over-protection (type I) and under-protection (type II) errors associated with hypothesis tests are used to compute expected hydropower and ecosystem regrets associated with dam operation decisions. We examine changes to high (annual Q5) and low flows (annual Q95) in typical years using a modified and extended nonparametric ranked-sum test that accounts for percent deviation thresholds. A multiple comparison test is then used to determine the likelihood of at least one threshold violation. An example shows that our decision-theoretic approach can lead to different dam operation recommendations than do other common methods, and highlights limitations that arise when the type I error rate is selected a priori. While we illustrate a hydropower-ecosystem tradeoff, our approach can also be applied to other multi-stakeholder reservoir and river management conflicts.

Bayesian decision-making, environmental flows, flo↗
DOE OSTI2021

An initial framework for the rapid qualification of long-term creep rupture strength via microstructural modeling

This report describes the development and testing of a new method for extrapolating short-term creep rupture test data to predict long-term rupture strength. The goal of this work is to reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service by reducing the lead time required for dedicated, long-term material testing to establish key long-term material properties. The new approach described here uses a physics-based model to predict the long-term creep rupture strength of 316H stainless steel using only short-term test data. The key idea is to use Bayesian inference to find the statistical distribution of the model parameters that best explain the short-term rupture data. Because the model is physics-based these parameters are all microstructural quantities that can be measured through detailed material characterization experiments. The Bayesian prior distributions provide a means for incorporating this characterization data into the final model to improve the accuracy of the long-term model predictions. However, where such data is not available the process still produces an accurate model based on an uniformed prior. Our hypothesis is that this approach more accurately extrapolates the short-term test data when compared to current, empirical methods. The report proves this hypothesis using actual long-term rupture data available for 316H, including tests with rupture times greater than 200,000 hours. The general approach developed here could be applied to other materials and other time-dependent material properties. Applying this new technique to develop long-term qualified material properties, potentially in conjunction with other accelerated qualification approaches like staggered qualification test programs, could greatly reduce the time required to qualify new materials for nuclear service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Local coexistence of VO 2 phases revealed by deep data analysis

We report a synergistic approach of micro-Raman spectroscopic mapping and deep data analysis to study the distribution of crystallographic phases and ferroelastic domains in a defected Al-doped VO 2 microcrystal. Bayesian linear unmixing revealed an uneven distribution of the T phase, which is stabilized by the surface defects and uneven local doping that went undetectable by other classical analysis techniques such as PCA and SIMPLISMA. This work demonstrates the impact of information recovery via statistical analysis and full mapping in spectroscopic studies of vanadium dioxide systems, which is commonly substituted by averaging or single point-probing approaches, both of which suffer from information misinterpretation due to low resolving power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgers equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Convolutional neural networks on the HEALPix sphere: a pixel-based algorithm and its application to CMB data analysis

We describe a novel method for the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the Hierarchical Equal Area Latitude Pixelization scheme (HEALPix). Specifically, we have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional and pooling layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs applied to Euclidean space. The main advantage of our algorithm is to be fully integrable with existing, highly optimized libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch, TensorFlow, etc.). We present two applications of our method: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from simulated maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The latter represents the main target of this exploratory work, whose goal is to show the applicability of our CNN to CMB parameter estimation. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting of four convolutional and pooling layers, and we have used it for all the applications explored herein. Concerning the recognition of handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of ~95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs, and this is true regardless of the position and orientation of the image on the sphere. For CMB-related applications, we tested the CNN on the estimation of a mock cosmological parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We estimated the value of this parameter directly from simulated maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization maps, presence of white noise, and partially covered maps. For temperature maps, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based Bayesian methods. For polarization, CNNs perform about a factor four worse than standard algorithms. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate, for the first time, that CNNs are able to extract information from polarization fields, both in full-sky and masked maps, and to distinguish between E and B -modes in pixel space. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization ( τ ) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard Bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Deep Data Analysis of Conductive Phenomena on Complex Oxide Interfaces: Physics from Data Mining

Spatial variability of electronic transport in BiFeO3-CoFe2O4 (BFO-CFO) self-assembled heterostructures is explored using spatially resolved first order reversal curve (FORC) current voltage (IV) mapping. Multivariate statistical analysis of FORC-IV data classifies statistically significant behaviors and maps characteristic responses spatially. In particular, regions of grain, matrix, and grain boundary responses are clearly identified. K-means and Bayesian demixing analysis suggests the characteristic response be separated into four components, with hysteretic type behavior localized at the BFO-CFO tubular interfaces. The conditions under which Bayesian components allow direct physical interpretation are explored, and transport mechanisms at the grain boundaries and individual phases are analyzed. This approach conjoins multivariate statistical analysis with physics-based interpretation, actualizing a robust, universal, data driven approach to problem solving, which can be applied to exploration of local transport and other functional phenomena in other spatially inhomogeneous systems.

big data↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying correlated truncation errors in effective field theory

Effective field theories (EFTs) organize the description of complex systems into an infinite sequence of decreasing importance. Predictions are made with a finite number of terms, which induces a truncation error that is often left unquantified. Here, we formalize the notion of EFT convergence and propose a Bayesian truncation error model for predictions that are correlated across the independent variables, e.g., energy or scattering angle. Central to our approach are Gaussian processes that encode both the naturalness and correlation structure of EFT coefficients. Our use of Gaussian processes permits efficient and accurate assessment of credible intervals, allows EFT fits to easily include correlated theory errors, and provides analytic posteriors for physical EFT-related quantities such as the expansion parameter. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model-checking diagnostics—applied to the case of multiple curves—are powerful tools for EFT validation. As an example, we assess a set of nucleon-nucleon scattering observables in chiral EFT. In an effort to be self-contained, appendices include thorough derivations of our statistical results. Our methods are packaged in Python code, called gsum, that is available for download on GitHub.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable and Differentiable Reinforcement Learning for Multi-objective Optimization in Particle Accelerators

Operating particle accelerators involves optimizing multiple goals simultaneously, which can be challenging due to trade-offs among objectives. While evolutionary algorithms like the genetic algorithm (GA) have been used for various Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) tasks, they are not inherently suited for complex control problems. This talk highlights two variations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for concurrently optimizing heat load and trip rates at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The problem involves strict constraints on individual states, actions, and overall energy requirements of the beam. First, this talk highlights how differentiability can be harnessed through a Deep Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) approach to address MOO issues within particle accelerators. We examine the DDRL method alongside Model Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), GA, and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The performance of these methods is assessed by generating a Pareto-front for two objectives. Our findings indicate that DDRL excels in handling high-dimensional problems more effectively than MFRL, BO, and GA. Next, we will show integration of explainable physics-based constraints into RL algorithms to enhance trans- parency and trust in decision-making processes by enabling users to verify that agents adhere to established physical principles. This surrogate function can be modeled using neural networks or sparse dictionary mod- els. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment provided but the surrogate model. In addi- tion, we find that the introduction of a mathematical functional dictionary based surrogate model enables our reinforcement learning algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator controls environments.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
NASA NTRS2018

Generating Exploration Mission-3 Trajectories to a 9:2 NRHO using Machine Learning

The purpose of this thesis is to design a machine learning algorithm platform that provides expanded knowledge of mission availability through a launch season by improving trajectory resolution and introducing launch mission forecasting. The specific scenario addressed in this paper is one in which data is provided for four deterministic translational maneuvers through a mission to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) with a 9:2 synodic frequency. Current launch availability knowledge under NASA's Orion Orbit Performance Team is established by altering optimization variables associated to given reference launch epochs. This current method can bean abstract task and relies on an orbit analyst to structure a mission based on an established mission design methodology associated to the performance of Orion and NASA's Space Launch System. Introducing a machine learning algorithm trained to construct mission scenarios within the feasible range of known trajectories reduces the required interaction of the orbit analyst by removing the needed step of optimizing the orbit to fit an expected translational response required of the spacecraft. In this study, k-Nearest Neighbor and Bayesian Linear Regression successfully predicted classical orbital elements for the launch windows observed. However both algorithms had limitations due to their approaches to model fitting. Training machine learning algorithms off of classical orbital elements introduced a repetitive approach to reconstructing mission segments for different arrival opportunities through the launch window and can prove to be a viable method of launch window scan generation for future missions.

Guzman, Esteban↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Kalai-Smorodinsky solution for many-objective Bayesian optimization

An ongoing aim of research in multiobjective Bayesian optimization is to extend its applicability to a large number of objectives. While coping with a limited budget of evaluations, recovering the set of optimal compromise solutions generally requires numerous observations and is less interpretable since this set tends to grow larger with the number of objectives. We thus propose to focus on a specific solution originating from game theory, the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, which possesses attractive properties. In particular, it ensures equal marginal gains over all objectives. We further make it insensitive to a monotonic transformation of the objectives by considering the objectives in the copula space. A novel tailored algorithm is proposed to search for the solution, in the form of a Bayesian optimization algorithm: sequential sampling decisions are made based on acquisition functions that derive from an instrumental Gaussian process prior. Our approach is tested on four problems with respectively four, six, eight, and nine objectives. The method is available in the R package GPGame available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/package=GPGame.

Game theory↗
DOE OSTI2013

Bayesian analysis of energy and count rate data for detection of low count rate radioactive sources

We propose a radiation detection system which generates its own discrete sampling distribution based on past measurements of background. The advantage to this approach is that it can take into account variations in background with respect to time, location, energy spectra, detector-specific characteristics (i.e. different efficiencies at different count rates and energies), etc. This would therefore be a 'machine learning' approach, in which the algorithm updates and improves its characterization of background over time. The system would have a 'learning mode,' in which it measures and analyzes background count rates, and a 'detection mode,' in which it compares measurements from an unknown source against its unique background distribution. By characterizing and accounting for variations in the background, general purpose radiation detectors can be improved with little or no increase in cost. The statistical and computational techniques to perform this kind of analysis have already been developed. The necessary signal analysis can be accomplished using existing Bayesian algorithms which account for multiple channels, multiple detectors, and multiple time intervals. Furthermore, Bayesian machine-learning techniques have already been developed which, with trivial modifications, can generate appropriate decision thresholds based on the comparison of new measurements against a nonparametric sampling distribution. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty Quantification Analysis of Both Experimental and CFD Simulation Data of a Bench-scale Fluidized Bed Gasifier

Adequate assessment of the uncertainties in modeling and simulation is becoming an integral part of the simulation based engineering design. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the application of non-intrusive Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology in multiphase (gas-solid) flows with experimental and simulation data, as part of our research efforts to determine the most suited approach for UQ of a bench scale fluidized bed gasifier. UQ analysis was first performed on the available experimental data. Global sensitivity analysis performed as part of the UQ analysis shows that among the three operating factors, steam to oxygen ratio has the most influence on syngas composition in the bench-scale gasifier experiments. An analysis for forward propagation of uncertainties was performed and results show that an increase in steam to oxygen ratio leads to an increase in H2 mole fraction and a decrease in CO mole fraction. These findings are in agreement with the ANOVA analysis performed in the reference experimental study. Another contribution in addition to the UQ analysis is the optimization-based approach to guide to identify next best set of additional experimental samples, should the possibility arise for additional experiments. Hence, the surrogate models constructed as part of the UQ analysis is employed to improve the information gain and make incremental recommendation, should the possibility to add more experiments arise. In the second step, series of simulations were carried out with the open-source computational fluid dynamics software MFiX to reproduce the experimental conditions, where three operating factors, i.e., coal flow rate, coal particle diameter, and steam-to-oxygen ratio, were systematically varied to understand their effect on the syngas composition. Bayesian UQ analysis was performed on the numerical results. As part of Bayesian UQ analysis, a global sensitivity analysis was performed based on the simulation results, which shows that the predicted syngas composition is strongly affected not only by the steam-to-oxygen ratio (which was observed in experiments as well) but also by variation in the coal flow rate and particle diameter (which was not observed in experiments). The carbon monoxide mole fraction is underpredicted at lower steam-to-oxygen ratios and overpredicted at higher steam-to-oxygen ratios. The opposite trend is observed for the carbon dioxide mole fraction. These discrepancies are attributed to either excessive segregation of the phases that leads to the fuel-rich or -lean regions or alternatively the selection of reaction models, where different reaction models and kinetics can lead to different syngas compositions throughout the gasifier. To improve quality of numerical models used, the effect that uncertainties in reaction models for gasification, char oxidation, carbon monoxide oxidation, and water gas shift will have on the syngas composition at different grid resolution, along with bed temperature were investigated. The global sensitivity analysis showed that among various reaction models employed for water gas shift, gasification, char oxidation, the choice of reaction model for water gas shift has the greatest influence on syngas composition, with gasification reaction model being second. Syngas composition also shows a small sensitivity to temperature of the bed. The hydrodynamic behavior of the bed did not change beyond grid spacing of 18 times the particle diameter. However, the syngas concentration continued to be affected by the grid resolution as low as 9 times the particle diameter. This is due to a better resolution of the phasic interface between the gases and solid that leads to stronger heterogeneous reactions. This report is a compilation of three manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals for the series of studies mentioned above.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of nuclear symmetry energy from measured and imagined neutron skin thickness in Sn 116 , 118 , 120 , 122 , 124 , 130 , 132 , Pb 208 , and Ca 48

The neutron skin thickness Δr np in heavy nuclei has been known as one of the most sensitive terrestrial probes of the nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) around $\frac{2}{3}$ of the saturation density ρ 0 of nuclear matter. Existing neutron skin data mostly from hadronic observables suffer from large uncertainties and their extraction from experiments are often strongly model dependent. While waiting eagerly for the promised model-independent and high-precision neutron skin data for 208 Pb and 48 Ca from the parity-violating electron scattering experiments (PREX-II and CREX at JLab as well as MREX at MESA), within the Bayesian statistical framework using the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the slope parameter L of the nuclear symmetry energy at ρ 0 from imagined Δr np ( 208 Pb)=0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 fm with a 1σ error bar of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 fm, respectively, as well as Δr np ( 48 Ca)=0.12, 0.15, and 0.25 fm, with different 1σ error bar of 0.01 and 0.02 fm, respectively. The results are compared with the PDFs of L inferred using the same approach from the available Δr np data for 116, 118, 120, 122, 124, 130, 132 Sn from hadronic probes. They are also compared with results from a recent Bayesian analysis of the radius and tidal deformability data of canonical neutron stars from GW170817 and NICER. The neutron skin data for Sn isotopes gives L = 45.5 $^{+ 26.5}_{-21.6}$ MeV surrounding its mean value or L = 53 . 4 $^{+ 18.6}_{ -29.5}$ MeV surrounding its maximum a posteriori value, respectively, with the latter smaller than but consistent with the L = 66 $^{+ 12}_{-20}$ MeV from the neutron star data within their 68% confidence intervals. We found that Δr np = 0.17 –0.18 fm in 208 Pb with an error bar of about 0.02 fm leads to a PDF of L compatible with that from analyzing the Sn data. To provide additionally useful information on L extracted from the Δr np of Sn isotopes, the experimental error bar of Δr np in 208 Pb should be at least smaller than 0.06 fm aimed by some current experiments. In addition, the Δr np ( 48 Ca) needs to be larger than 0.15 fm but smaller than 0.25 fm to be compatible with the Sn and/or neutron star results. To further improve our current knowledge about L and distinguish its PDFs in the examples considered, even higher precisions leading to significantly less than ±20 MeV error bars for L at 68% confidence level are necessary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗