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DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Spread of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Traced to Ocean Salinity

Abstract Ocean heat uptake (OHU) plays an important role in determining the rate of surface warming under CO 2 forcing. We examined the transient response to CO 2 forcing in a set of 30 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and found that the intermodel spread in OHU efficiency largely depends on the base‐state ocean stratification, especially in the Southern Ocean. This dependence is primarily traced to ocean salinity rather than ocean temperature. Models with weaker ocean stratification primarily due to higher upper‐ocean salinity tend to sequester heat into the deeper ocean, leading to a lower rate of surface warming, a primary reason for higher OHU efficiency; the stratification impact on total OHU is secondary. We applied the relationship between salinity and OHU efficiency for an emergent constraint on OHU efficiency, suggesting an OHU efficiency higher than the CMIP6 multimodel average and arguing against models with extremely low efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure in matrix elements

We investigate the simple model of Pennington, Shenker, Stanford and Yang for modeling the density matrix of Hawking radiation, but further include dynamics for EOW branes behind the horizon. This allows interactions that scatter one interior state to another, and also allows EOW loops. At strong coupling, we find that EOW states are no longer random; the ensemble has collapsed, and coupling constants encode the microscopic matrix elements of Hawking radiation. This suggests strong interior dynamics are important for understanding evaporating black holes, without any ensemble average. In this concrete model the density matrix of the radiation deviates from the thermal state, small off-diagonal fluctuations encode equivalences between naively orthogonal states, and bound the entropy from above. For almost evaporated black holes the off-diagonal terms become as large as the diagonal ones, eventually giving a pure state. We also find the unique analytic formula for all Renyi entropies.

2D gravity↗

NASA NTRS2021

Pluto’s Sputnik Planitia: Composition of geological units from infrared spectroscopy

We have compared spectroscopic data of Sputnik Planitia on Pluto, as acquired by New Horizons’ Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) instrument, to the geomorphology as mapped by White et al. (2017) using visible and panchromatic imaging acquired by the LOng-Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) and the Multi-spectral Visible Imaging Camera (MVIC). We have focused on 13 of the geologic units identified by White et al. (2017), which include the plains and mountain units contained within the Sputnik basin. We divided the map of Sputnik Planitia into 15 provinces, each containing one or more geologic units, and we use LEISA to calculate the average spectra of the units inside the 15 provinces. Hapke-based modeling was then applied to the average spectra of the units to infer their surface composition, and to determine if the composition resulting from the modeling of LEISA spectra reflects the geomorphologic analyses of LORRI data, and if areas classified as being the same geologically, but which are geographically separated, share a similar composition. We investigated the spatial distribution of the most abundant ices on Pluto’s surface - CH4, N2, CO, H2O, and a non-ice component presumed to be a macromolecular carbon-rich material, termed a tholin, that imparts a positive spectral slope in the visible spectral region and a negative spectral slope longward of ~1.1 μm. Because the exact nature of the non-ice component is still debated and because the negative spectral slope of the available tholins in the near infrared does not perfectly match the Pluto data, for spectral modeling purposes we reference it generically as the negative spectral slope endmember (NSS endmember). We created maps of variations in the integrated band depth (from LEISA data) and areal mass fraction (from the modeling) of the components. The analysis of correlations between the occurrences of the endmembers in the geologic units led to the observation of an anomalous suppression of the strong CH4 absorption bands in units with compositions that are dominated by H2O ice and the NSS endmember. Exploring the mutual variation of the CH4 and N2 integrated band depths with the abundance of crystalline H2O and NSS endmember revealed that the NSS endmember is primarily responsible for the suppression of CH4 absorptions in mountainous units located along the western edge of Sputnik Planitia. Our spectroscopic analyses have provided additional insight into the geological processes that have shaped Sputnik Planitia. A general increase in volatile abundance from the north to the south of Sputnik Planitia is observed. Such an increase first observed and interpreted by Protopapa et al., 2017 and later confirmed by climate modeling (Bertrand et al., 2018) is expressed geomorphologically in the form of preferential deposition of N2 ice in the upland and mountainous regions bordering the plains of southern Sputnik Planitia. Relatively high amounts of pure CH4 are seen at the southern Tenzing Montes, which are a natural site for CH4 deposition owing to their great elevation and the lower insolation they are presently receiving. The NSS endmember correlates the existence of tholins within certain units, mostly those coating the low-latitude mountain ranges that are co-latitudinal with the tholin-covered Cthulhu Macula. The spectral analysis has also revealed compositional differences between the handful of occurrences of northern non-cellular plains and the surrounding cellular plains, all of which are located within the portion of Sputnik Planitia that is presently experiencing net sublimation of volatiles, and which do not therefore exhibit a surface layer of bright, freshly-deposited N2 ice. The compositional differences between the cellular and non-cellular plains here hint at the effectiveness of convection in entraining and trapping tholins within the body of the cellular plains, while preventing the spread of such tholins to abutting non-cellular plains.

Pluto's Sputnik Planitia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of RANS vs. LES simulation of fluid flow through 3 × 3 rod bundle with a simple spacer grid as a precursor to coupled fluid–structure interaction simulations

The research literature on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) of coolant flow through rod bundles with spacer-grids and mixing vanes is replete, ranging from high fidelity Large Eddy Simulation (LES)/Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) simulations to Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) modeled studies. The mixing of flow between subchannels and the pressure drop through the bundle are fundamental quantities useful for comparing and evaluating CFD methods. Less commonly observed and compared are the forces exerted onto the structure by the fluid. The present study seeks to evaluate the use of RANS simulations for predicting the structural response to fluid flow. Wall resolved RANS simulations are benchmarked against LES simulations of fluid flow at a Reynolds number of 15,000 through a 3 × 3 fuel rod bundle with a simple spacer grid. Velocity line-plots are compared showing good agreement between RANS and LES results, ascertaining that the former is capable of capturing the essential time-averaged velocity profile. Additionally, the distribution of forces on the spacer grid and fuel rods are collected as a function of time and space. The RANS methods are evaluated using the frequency and magnitude of the fluctuating forces on various portions of the structure as compared to LES. In conclusion, the power spectral density evaluation of the models reveal underprediction of force amplitude on the rod walls by RANS and also discrepancy in the prediction of high frequency spectra, especially in the immediate vicinity of spacer-grid structure, which may be attributed to the lack of random turbulence fluctuation or insufficient modeling of small-scale eddies in RANS simulation.

FIV↗

NASA NTRS1984

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Simulations of the Aerosol Index and the Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth and Comparisons with OMI Retrievals During ARCTAS-2008 Campaign

We have computed the Aerosol Index (AI) at 354 nm, useful for observing the presence of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere, from aerosol simulations conducted with the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module running online the GEOS-5 Atmospheric GCM. The model simulates five aerosol types: dust, sea salt, black carbon, organic carbon and sulfate aerosol and can be run in replay or data assimilation modes. In the assimilation mode, information's provided by the space-based MODIS and MISR sensors constrains the model aerosol state. Aerosol optical properties are then derived from the simulated mass concentration and the Al is determined at the OMI footprint using the radiative transfer code VLIDORT. In parallel, model derived Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) is compared with OMI retrievals. We have focused our study during ARCTAS (June - July 2008), a period with a good sampling of dust and biomass burning events. Our ultimate goal is to use OMI measurements as independent validation for our MODIS/MISR assimilation. Towards this goal we document the limitation of OMI aerosol absorption measurements on a global scale, in particular sensitivity to aerosol vertical profile and cloud contamination effects, deriving the appropriate averaging kernels. More specifically, model simulated (full) column integrated AAOD is compared with model derived Al, this way identifying those regions and conditions under which OMI cannot detect absorbing aerosols. Making use of ATrain cloud measurements from MODIS, C1oudSat and CALIPSO we also investigate the global impact on clouds on OMI derived Al, and the extent to which GEOS-5 clouds can offer a first order representation of these effects.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of Ares-I CFD Ascent Aerodynamic Data Development And Analysis Based on USM3D

An overview of the computational results obtained from the NASA Langley developed unstructured grid, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes flow solver USM3D, in support of the Ares-I project within the NASA s Constellation program, are presented. The numerical data are obtained for representative flow conditions pertinent to the ascent phase of the trajectory at both wind tunnel and flight Reynolds number without including any propulsion effects. The USM3D flow solver has been designated to have the primary role within the Ares-I project in developing the computational aerodynamic data for the vehicle while other flow solvers, namely OVERFLOW and FUN3D, have supporting roles to provide complementary results for fewer cases as part of the verification process to ensure code-to-code solution consistency. Similarly, as part of the solution validation efforts, the predicted numerical results are correlated with the aerodynamic wind tunnel data that have been generated within the project in the past few years. Sample aerodynamic results and the processes established for the computational solution/data development for the evolving Ares-I design cycles are presented.

FUN3D↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Phase Change Composite Thermal Energy Storage Using the Thermal Ragone Framework

The thermal Ragone framework can be applied to the design of thermal energy storage heat exchangers to identifying relationships between their power requirements and energy capabilities. This presentation focuses on the design of planar thermal energy storage heat exchangers with phase change materials and thermal conductivity additives. Finite-difference models were used to optimize thermal storage heat exchanger designs focusing on key design parameters of conductivity additive volume fraction, spacing between tubes, and the phase transition temperatures. Design trends were developed for optimal designs based on varying thermal power requirements. To aid in future device design, models of reduced complexity were developed with the ability to predict optimal designs with computational speeds up to 5,000 times faster than finite-difference models.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗

DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Is photon angular momentum important in molecular collision processes occurring in a laser field

The importance of the rigorous treatment of photon angular momentum in molecular-collision processes occurring in the presence of intense radiation is investigated. An alternate approximate treatment, which essentially neglects the angular momentum coupling between the photon and the molecular degrees of freedom by averaging over the angular dependence of the interaction matrix elements, is presented and applied to a model calculation. The degeneracy-averaged results of this calculation compare remarkably well with the results of a rigorous calculation, from which we conclude (with reservation) that the explicit consideration of photoangular momentum coupling in molecular-collision problems is unnecessary.

Devries, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols

The effect of stratospheric aerosols on Umkehr estimates of long-term ozone depletion associated with chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) is considered in a statistical time series trend analysis. Time series models are estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr measurements made over the last 15 to 20 years. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend and noise factors and an additional factor to account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. The analysis indicates a statistically significant relation with atmospheric aerosol transmission in the Umkehr layers and implies that the relation is an important factor in any time series trend analysis of Umkehr data. Taking this relation into account, statistically significant negative trends were found in the Upper Umkehr layers. It is pointed out that upper stratospheric ozone could be sensitive to long-term solar variability as well as other possible influences in addition to CFM-induced effects, and therefore the cause or causes of the estimated trend cannot be unambiguously estimated using current Umkehr data.

Reinsel, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Validation of the Poisson Stochastic Radiative Transfer Model

A new approach to validation of the Poisson stochastic radiative transfer method is proposed. In contrast to other validations of stochastic models, the main parameter of the Poisson model responsible for cloud geometrical structure - cloud aspect ratio - is determined entirely by matching measurements and calculations of the direct solar radiation. If the measurements of the direct solar radiation is unavailable, it was shown that there is a range of the aspect ratios that allows the stochastic model to accurately approximate the average measurements of surface downward and cloud top upward fluxes. Realizations of the fractionally integrated cascade model are taken as a prototype of real measurements.

Zhuravleva, Tatiana↗

NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of Transonic Wake Dynamics for Mechanically Deployable Entry Systems

A numerical investigation of transonic flow around a mechanically deployable entry system being considered for a robotic mission to Venus has been performed, and preliminary results are reported. The flow around a conceptual representation of the vehicle geometry was simulated at discrete points along a ballistic trajectory using Detached Eddy Simulation (DES). The trajectory points selected span the low supersonic to transonic regimes with freestream Mach numbers from 1:5 to 0:8, and freestream Reynolds numbers (based on diameter) between 2:09 x 10(exp 6) and 2:93 x 10(exp 6). Additionally, the Mach 0:8 case was simulated at angles of attack between 0 and 5 . Static aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the data show qualitative agreement with data from 70deg sphere-cone wind tunnel tests performed for the Viking program. Finally, the effect of choices of models and numerical algorithms is addressed by comparing the DES results to those using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model, as well as to results using a more dissipative numerical scheme.

Stern, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2014

Calibrating Historical IR Sensors Using GEO, and AVHRR Infrared Tropical Mean Calibration Models

Long-term, remote-sensing-based climate data records (CDRs) are highly dependent on having consistent, wellcalibrated satellite instrument measurements of the Earth's radiant energy. Therefore, by making historical satellite calibrations consistent with those of today's imagers, the Earth-observing community can benefit from a CDR that spans a minimum of 30 years. Most operational meteorological satellites rely on an onboard blackbody and space looks to provide on-orbit IR calibration, but neither target is traceable to absolute standards. The IR channels can also be affected by ice on the detector window, angle dependency of the scan mirror emissivity, stray-light, and detector-to-detector striping. Being able to quantify and correct such degradations would mean IR data from any satellite imager could contribute to a CDR. Recent efforts have focused on utilizing well-calibrated modern hyper-spectral sensors to intercalibrate concurrent operational IR imagers to a single reference. In order to consistently calibrate both historical and current IR imagers to the same reference, however, another strategy is needed. Large, well-characterized tropical-domain Earth targets have the potential of providing an Earth-view reference accuracy of within 0.5 K. To that effort, NASA Langley is developing an IR tropical mean calibration model in order to calibrate historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments. Using Meteosat-9 (Met-9) as a reference, empirical models are built based on spatially/temporally binned Met-9 and AVHRR tropical IR brightness temperatures. By demonstrating the stability of the Met-9 tropical models, NOAA-18 AVHRR can be calibrated to Met-9 by matching the AVHRR monthly histogram averages with the Met-9 model. This method is validated with ray-matched AVHRR and Met-9 biasdifference time series. Establishing the validity of this empirical model will allow for the calibration of historical AVHRR sensors to within 0.5 K, and thereby establish a climate-quality IR data record.

Scarino, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS2016

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

model structure uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of the effects of zonal averaging on reaction rate calculations in two-dimensional atmospheric models

The usual assumption by which chemical reaction rates are calculated in two-dimensional atmospheric models is by using a product of zonal means of rate coefficients and constituent concentrations rather than the rigorous zonal mean of the corresponding products. This assumption has been tested for the reactions O + NO2 yields NO + O2 and NO + O3 yields NO2 + O2 using mapped limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere data from the Nimbus 7 satellite and found to be quite satisfactory for winter 1979 at 60 deg N in the upper stratosphere. Relative differences between the two-dimensional averaged rate and the more rigorous rate, calculated from the full, longitudinally varying temperatures and mixing ratios, were small (usually below 5 percent) and exceeded 15 percent only during times of strong dynamical activity. At those times or locations where stratospheric circulation is primarily zonal, the two averages agreed to within a few percent.

Kaye, Jack A.↗