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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

An Analysis of Simulated and Observed Global Mean Near-Surface Air Temperature Anomalies from 1979 to 1999: Trends and Attribution of Causes

The 1979 - 1999 response of the climate system to variations in solar spectral irradiance is estimated by comparing the global averaged surface temperature anomalies simulated by a 2D (two dimensional) energy balance climate model to observed temperature anomalies. We perform a multiple regression of southern oscillation index and the individual model responses to solar irradiance variations, stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone trends, and greenhouse gases onto each of five near-surface temperature anomaly data sets. We estimate the observed difference in global mean near surface air temperature attributable to the solar irradiance difference between solar maximum and solar minimum to be between 0.06 and 0.11 K, and that 1.1 - 3.8% of the total variance in monthly mean near-surface air temperature data is attributable to nations in solar spectral irradiance. For the five temperature data sets used in our analysis, the trends in raw monthly mean temperature anomaly data have a large range, spanning a factor of 3 from 0.06 to 0.17 K/decade. However. our analysis suggests that trends in monthly temperature anomalies attributable to the combination of greenhouse gas, stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric sulfate aerosol variations are much more consistent among data sets, ranging from 0.16 to 0.24 K/decade. Our model results suggest that roughly half of the warming from greenhouse gases is cancelled by the cooling from changes in stratospheric ozone. Tropospheric sulfate aerosol loading in the present day atmospheric contributes significantly to the net radiative forcing of the present day climate system. However, because the change in magnitude and latitudinal distribution of tropospheric sulfate aerosol has been small over the past 20 years, the change in the direct radiative forcing attributable to changes in aerosol loading over this time is also small.

MacKay, R. M.↗

Modular automated bottom-up proteomic sample preparation for high-throughput applications

Manual proteomic sample preparation methods limit sample throughput and often lead to poor data quality when thousands of samples must be analyzed. Automated liquid handler systems are increasingly used to overcome these issues for many of the sample preparation steps. Here, we detail a step-by-step protocol to prepare samples for bottom-up proteomic analysis for Gram-negative bacterial and fungal cells. The full modular protocol consists of three optimized protocols to: (A) lyse Gram-negative bacteria and fungal cells; (B) quantify the amount of protein extracted; and (C) normalize the amount of protein and set up tryptic digestion. These protocols have been developed to facilitate rapid, low variance sample preparation of hundreds of samples, be easily implemented on widely-available Beckman-Coulter Biomek automated liquid handlers, and allow flexibility for future protocol development. By using this workflow 50 micrograms of protein from 96 samples can be prepared for tryptic digestion in under an hour. We validate these protocols by analyzing 47 Pseudomonas putida and Rhodosporidium toruloides samples and show that this modular workflow provides robust, reproducible proteomic samples for high-throughput applications. The expected results from these protocols are 94 peptide samples from Gram-negative bacterial and fungal cells prepared for bottom-up quantitative proteomic analysis without the need for desalting column cleanup and with protein relative quantity variance (CV%) below 15%.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A joint analysis of Planck and BICEP2 B modes including dust polarization uncertainty

We analyze BICEP2 and Planck data using a model that includes CMB lensing, gravity waves, and polarized dust. Recently published Planck dust polarization maps have highlighted the difficulty of estimating the amount of dust polarization in low intensity regions, suggesting that the polarization fractions have considerable uncertainties and may be significantly higher than previous predictions. In this paper, we start by assuming nothing about the dust polarization except for the power spectrum shape, which we take to be C{sub l}{sup BB,dust} ∝ l{sup -2.42}. The resulting joint BICEP2+Planck analysis favors solutions without gravity waves, and the upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio is r<0.11, a slight improvement relative to the Planck analysis alone which gives r<0.13 (95% c.l.). The estimated amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum agrees with expectations for this field based on both HI column density and Planck polarization measurements at 353 GHz in the BICEP2 field. Including the latter constraint on the dust spectrum amplitude in our analysis improves the limit further to r < 0.09, placing strong constraints on theories of inflation (e.g., models with r>0.14 are excluded with 99.5% confidence). We address the cross-correlation analysis of BICEP2 at 150 GHz with BICEP1 at 100 GHz as a test of foreground contamination. We find that the null hypothesis of dust and lensing with 0r= gives Δ χ{sup 2} < 2 relative to the hypothesis of no dust, so the frequency analysis does not strongly favor either model over the other. We also discuss how more accurate dust polarization maps may improve our constraints. If the dust polarization is measured perfectly, the limit can reach r < 0.05 (or the corresponding detection significance if the observed dust signal plus the expected lensing signal is below the BICEP2 observations), but this degrades quickly to almost no improvement if the dust calibration error is 20% or larger or if the dust maps are not processed through the BICEP2 pipeline, inducing sampling variance noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mass variance from archival X-ray properties of Dark Energy Survey Year-1 galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT Using archival X-ray observations and a lognormal population model, we estimate constraints on the intrinsic scatter in halo mass at fixed optical richness for a galaxy cluster sample identified in Dark Energy Survey Year-One (DES-Y1) data with the redMaPPer algorithm. We examine the scaling behaviour of X-ray temperatures, TX, with optical richness, λRM, for clusters in the redshift range 0.2 < z < 0.7. X-ray temperatures are obtained from Chandra and XMM observations for 58 and 110 redMaPPer systems, respectively. Despite non-uniform sky coverage, the TX measurements are $\gt 50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ complete for clusters with λRM > 130. Regression analysis on the two samples produces consistent posterior scaling parameters, from which we derive a combined constraint on the residual scatter, $\sigma _{\ln T \, |\, \lambda }= 0.275 \pm 0.019$. Joined with constraints for TX scaling with halo mass from the Weighing the Giants program and richness–temperature covariance estimates from the LoCuSS sample, we derive the richness-conditioned scatter in mass, $\sigma _{\ln M \, |\, \lambda }= 0.30 \pm 0.04\, _{({\rm stat})} \pm 0.09\, _{({\rm sys})}$, at an optical richness of approximately 100. Uncertainties in external parameters, particularly the slope and variance of the TX–mass relation and the covariance of TX and λRM at fixed mass, dominate the systematic error. The $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence region from joint sample analysis is relatively broad, $\sigma _{\ln M \, |\, \lambda }\in [0.14, \, 0.55]$, or a factor 10 in variance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Decline in malaria incidence in a typical county of China: Role of climate variance and anti-malaria intervention measures

Highlights: • Malaria incidence shows a steeply interannual decline and an obvious seasonality. • Malaria incidence highly correlates to temperature, precipitation and humidity. • Two favorable climate conditions are determined for high incidence of malaria. • There is good agreement between a decreasing malaria incidence and slightly declined climate variance in epidemic months. • Malaria incidence is declined rapidly because of the persistent progress of anti-malaria interventions. Malaria is an important vector-borne disease which is widespread in tropical and subtropical areas worldwide as well as in south China. Previous research has separately focused on the association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables or between malaria incidence and anti-malaria intervention measures in China, especially in Yunnan Province. Therefore, a typical county, Tengchong County, in Yunnan Province with high malaria incidence was selected as the study area to investigate the integrated influence of climate variance and anti-malaria intervention measures. Malaria incidence and meteorological variables were analyzed with a 2-month lag. The variables include average monthly temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, cumulative precipitation, wind speed, maximum wind speed, relative humidity and minimum relative humidity. First, the principal component analysis was introduced to investigate the relationship between malaria incidence and meteorological variables; classification and regression trees were used to clarify contributions of key meteorological variables to malaria incidence afterwards. Second, based on existing anti-malaria intervention measures and above results, the integrated impact of climate variance and anti-malaria interventions on interannual trends of malaria incidence was analyzed. High malaria incidence occurred under one of the two meteorological conditions: 1) high minimum temperature combined with high minimum relative humidity or both precipitation and minimum relative humidity above middle level; 2) middle minimum temperature combined with both precipitation and minimum relative humidity below middle levels. Moreover, the steep interannual decline of malaria incidence in Tengchong was determined by slight climate variance and persistent anti-malaria intervention measures during malaria epidemics, predominantly by the latter. These findings will provide evidence data for developing malaria surveillance strategies in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The comparison between effects of Taichi and conventional exercise on functional mobility and balance in healthy older adults: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Background Taichi is beneficial for functional mobility and balance in older adults. However, such benefits of Taichi when comparing to conventional exercise (CE) are not well understood due to large variance in study protocols and observations. Methods We reviewed publications in five databases. Eligible studies that examined the effects of Taichi on the outcomes of functional mobility and balance in healthy older adults as compared to CE were included. Subgroup analyses compared the effects of different types of CE (e.g., single and multiple-type exercise) and different intervention designs (e.g., Taichi types) on those outcomes (Registration number: CRD42022331956). Results Twelve studies consisting of 2,901 participants were included. Generally, compared to CE, Taichi induced greater improvements in the performance of Timed-Up-and-Go (SMD = −0.18, [−0.33 to −0.03], p = 0.040, I 2 = 59.57%), 50-foot walking (MD = −1.84 s, [−2.62 to −1.07], p < 0.001, I 2 = 0%), one-leg stance with eyes open (MD = 6.00s, [2.97 to 9.02], p < 0.001, I 2 = 83.19%), one-leg stance with eyes closed (MD = 1.65 s, [1.35 to 1.96], p < 0.001, I 2 = 36.2%), and functional reach (SMD = 0.7, [0.32 to 1.08], p < 0.001, I 2 = 86.79%) tests. Subgroup analyses revealed that Taichi with relatively short duration (<20 weeks), low total time (≤24 h), and/or using Yang-style, can induce significantly greater benefits for functional mobility and balance as compared to CE. Uniquely, Taichi only induced significantly greater improvements in Timed-Up-and-Go compared to single- (SMD = −0.40, [−0.55 to −0.24], p < 0.001, I 2 = 6.14%), but not multiple-type exercise. A significant difference between the effects of Taichi was observed on the performance of one-leg stance with eyes open when compared to CE without balance (MD = 3.63 s, [1.02 to 6.24], p = 0.006, I 2 = 74.93%) and CE with balance (MD = 13.90s, [10.32 to 17.48], p < 0.001, I 2 = 6.1%). No other significant difference was shown between the influences of different CE types on the observations. Conclusion Taichi can induce greater improvement in functional mobility and balance in older adults compared to CE in a more efficient fashion, especially compared to single-type CE. Future studies with more rigorous design are needed to confirm the observations here.

Li, Yiting↗

Use of the VAS for analysis of a prethunderstorm environment

The information content of the VAS radiances can be converted to meteorological parameters useful for analyzing a severe weather environment. The method by which the VAS variances are converted to vertical profiles of temperature, dewpoints, and equivalent potential temperature involves a basic regression technique using the most local radiosonde data available for establishing a correlation matrix. The results indicate that mesoscale features apparent within images of the radiances can be converted to usable temperature and moisture fields using regression when surface temperature and dewpoint observations are included within the total data base. In addition, results indicate that surface data are very important for better defining lower tropospheric structure that the VAS radiances alone cannot properly resolve. Analyses of these retrievals distinctly show mesoscale structure in the temperature and moisture fields derived with VAS radiances collected every 3 hours, and 0000 GMT. The retrievals capture the moisture structure. More important, convective instability is clearly detected immediately before the onset of convection. The results indicate that the VAS is capable of providing valuable mesoscale information suitable for analyzing a preconvective environment that is generally clear.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Bryan Mound SPR cavern 113 remedial leach stage 1 analysis.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve implemented the first stage of a leach plan in 2011-2012 to expand storage volume in the existing Bryan Mound 113 cavern from a starting volume of 7.4 million barrels (MMB) to its design volume of 11.2 MMB. The first stage was terminated several months earlier than expected in August, 2012, as the upper section of the leach zone expanded outward more quickly than design. The oil-brine interface was then re-positioned with the intent to resume leaching in the second stage configuration. This report evaluates the as-built configuration of the cavern at the end of the first stage, and recommends changes to the second stage plan in order to accommodate for the variance between the first stage plan and the as-built cavern. SANSMIC leach code simulations are presented and compared with sonar surveys in order to aid in the analysis and offer projections of likely outcomes from the revised plan for the second stage leach.

Rudeen, David Keith↗

Windowed and Wavelet Analysis of Marine Stratocumulus Cloud Inhomogeneity

To improve radiative transfer calculations for inhomogeneous clouds, a consistent means of modeling inhomogeneity is needed. One current method of modeling cloud inhomogeneity is through the use of fractal parameters. This method is based on the supposition that cloud inhomogeneity over a large range of scales is related. An analysis technique named wavelet analysis provides a means of studying the multiscale nature of cloud inhomogeneity. In this paper, the authors discuss the analysis and modeling of cloud inhomogeneity through the use of wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis as well as other windowed analysis techniques are used to study liquid water path (LWP) measurements obtained during the marine stratocumulus phase of the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment. Statistics obtained using analysis windows, which are translated to span the LWP dataset, are used to study the local (small scale) properties of the cloud field as well as their time dependence. The LWP data are transformed onto an orthogonal wavelet basis that represents the data as a number of times series. Each of these time series lies within a frequency band and has a mean frequency that is half the frequency of the previous band. Wavelet analysis combined with translated analysis windows reveals that the local standard deviation of each frequency band is correlated with the local standard deviation of the other frequency bands. The ratio between the standard deviation of adjacent frequency bands is 0.9 and remains constant with respect to time. This ratio defined as the variance coupling parameter is applicable to all of the frequency bands studied and appears to be related to the slope of the data's power spectrum. Similar analyses are performed on two cloud inhomogeneity models, which use fractal-based concepts to introduce inhomogeneity into a uniform cloud field. The bounded cascade model does this by iteratively redistributing LWP at each scale using the value of the local mean. This model is reformulated into a wavelet multiresolution framework, thereby presenting a number of variants of the bounded cascade model. One variant introduced in this paper is the 'variance coupled model,' which redistributes LWP using the local standard deviation and the variance coupling parameter. While the bounded cascade model provides an elegant two- parameter model for generating cloud inhomogeneity, the multiresolution framework provides more flexibility at the expense of model complexity. Comparisons are made with the results from the LWP data analysis to demonstrate both the strengths and weaknesses of these models.

Gollmer, Steven M.↗

IMERG and GPCP Seasonality and Response to Climate and Weather Variability

The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are two of the most popular precipitation products. IMERG is a relatively new dataset that targets the needs primarily of the hydrological community by resolving the hydrological cycle of precipitation at fine temporal (30-minutes) and spatial (10-km) scales. IMERG only recently exceeded the user base of the highly successful, but discontinued in 2019, TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). GPCP, on the other hand, has traditionally been strong in the climate research community, and recently has been revised under the framework of NASA's Making Earth System Data records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program. Both IMERG and GPCP are similar in the underlying approaches to achieve global coverage, in particular using satellite microwave and infrared observations, and adjusting the precipitation retrieval with rain gauge information. While there is a tendency to use both datasets interchangeably, differences remain and some of them limit the usage of IMERG as a climate data record at this point. By applying Principal Component Analysis, we identify the differences and similarities mode-by-mode, and further the guidance on suggested usage of IMERG as a climate data record. As an example in the attached figure, IMERG vs GPSP differences in the explained variance by the two leading seasonal modes can be identified, mainly in the extreme southern latitudes, and over western boundary currents (Gulfstream and Kuroshio). At the preparation time for this presentation, the new version "07"of IMERG was in the works that may resolve the issues presented here. Nevertheless, our analysis can help to gauge the uncertainties of the studies already done using the currently existing IMERG version "06", and evaluate the improvements in the upcoming version "07".

Andrey Savtchenko↗

Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901-2005

Here, despite the importance of net primary productivity (NPP) and net biome productivity (NBP), estimates of NPP and NBP for China are highly uncertain. To investigate the main sources of uncertainty, we synthesized model estimates of NPP and NBP for China from published literature and the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The literature-based results showed that total NPP and NBP in China were 3.35 ± 1.25 and 0.14 ± 0.094 Pg C yr –1 , respectively. Classification and regression tree analysis based on literature data showed that model type was the primary source of the uncertainty, explaining 36% and 64% of the variance in NPP and NBP, respectively. Spatiotemporal scales, land cover conditions, inclusion of the N cycle, and effects of N addition also contributed to the overall uncertainty. Results based on the MsTMIP data suggested that model structures were overwhelmingly important (>90%) for the overall uncertainty compared to simulations with different combinations of time-varying global change factors. The interannual pattern of NPP was similar among diverse studies and increased by 0.012 Pg C yr –1 during 1981–2000. In addition, high uncertainty in China's NPP occurred in areas with high productivity, whereas NBP showed the opposite pattern. Our results suggest that to significantly reduce uncertainty in estimated NPP and NBP, model structures should be substantially tested on the basis of empirical results. To this end, coordinated distributed experiments with multiple global change factors might be a practical approach that can validate specific structures of different models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of cost and quality of three methods for estimating density for wild pig (Sus scrofa)

A critical element in efective wildlife management is monitoring the status of wildlife populations; however, resources to monitor wildlife populations are typically limited. We compared cost efectiveness of three common population estimation methods (i.e. non-invasive DNA sampling, camera sampling, and sampling from trapping) by applying them to wild pigs (Sus scrofa) across three habitats in South Carolina, U.S.A where they are invasive. We used mark-recapture analyses for fecal DNA sampling data, spatially-explicit capture-recapture analyses for camera sampling data, and a removal analysis for removal sampling from trap data. Density estimates were similar across methods. Camera sampling was the least expensive, but had large variances. Fecal DNA sampling was the most expensive, although this technique generally performed well. We examined how reductions in efort by method related to increases in relative bias or imprecision. For removal sampling, the largest cost savings while maintaining unbiased density estimates was from reducing the number of traps. For fecal DNA sampling, a reduction in efort only minimally reduced costs due to the need for increased lab replicates while maintaining high quality estimates. For camera sampling, efort could only be marginally reduced before inducing bias. We provide a decision tree for researchers to help make monitoring decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring the velocity field from type Ia supernovae in an LSST-like sky survey

In a few years, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will vastly increase the number of type Ia supernovae observed in the local universe. This will allow for a precise mapping of the velocity field and, since the source of peculiar velocities is variations in the density field, cosmological parameters related to the matter distribution can subsequently be extracted from the velocity power spectrum. One way to quantify this is through the angular power spectrum of radial peculiar velocities on spheres at different redshifts. We investigate how well this observable can be measured, despite the problems caused by areas with no information. To obtain a realistic distribution of supernovae, we create mock supernova catalogs by using a semi-analytical code for galaxy formation on the merger trees extracted from N-body simulations. We measure the cosmic variance in the velocity power spectrum by repeating the procedure many times for differently located observers, and vary several aspects of the analysis, such as the observer environment, to see how this affects the measurements. Our results confirm the findings from earlier studies regarding the precision with which the angular velocity power spectrum can be determined in the near future. This level of precision has been found to imply, that the angular velocity power spectrum from type Ia supernovae is competitive in its potential to measure parameters such as σ{sub 8}. This makes the peculiar velocity power spectrum from type Ia supernovae a promising new observable, which deserves further attention.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurements of multiplicity fluctuations of identified hadrons in inelastic proton–proton interactions at the CERN Super Proton Synchrotron

Measurements of multiplicity fluctuations of identified hadrons produced in inelastic p+p interactions at 31, 40, 80, and 158 $\text {Ge}\text {V}/c$ beam momentum are presented. Three different measures of multiplicity fluctuations are used: the scaled variance $\omega $ and strongly intensive measures $\Sigma $ and $\Delta $. These fluctuation measures involve second and first moments of joint multiplicity distributions. Data analysis is preformed using the Identity method which corrects for incomplete particle identification. Strongly intensive quantities are calculated in order to allow for a direct comparison to corresponding results on nucleus–nucleus collisions. The results for different hadron types are shown as a function of collision energy. A comparison with predictions of string-resonance Monte-Carlo models: Epos, Smash and Venus, is also presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

¬¬Integration of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology into Parallel Discrete Event Simulator Framework

Parallel Discrete Events Simulation (PDES) is becoming increasingly important to lab efforts in security and intelligence. It is used to model complex asynchronous systems such as computer networks, satellite systems, vehicular traffic, and human performance. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques have become a mainstay of Verification and Validation (V&V) efforts on physics simulations. However, PDES models are very different from traditional physics simulations, and research into UQ techniques for PDES is in its infancy. It is not clear which traditional UQ techniques can be applied to PDES, or what new techniques will need to be developed. The goal of this project was to identify existing UQ techniques that can be applied to PDES, and to develop new techniques as necessary. The project implemented or developed techniques to handle issues that do not appear in traditional physics simulations, but are common among PDES, including sampling techniques for high-dimensional homogenous inputs, response surfaces for high-variance heteroskedastic output, and characterization of skewed output distributions. These are foundational UQ techniques that must be used in any complete UQ analysis (Tong 2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hail parameter relations - A comprehensive digest

Diagrams of hail size parameters are presented and attempts are made to correlate size and mass/volume as indicators of integral quantities of hailstone fall. Radar cross-sections are presented, along with related radar parameters such as the equivalent radar reflectivity factor, the mean Doppler fallspeed, the variance of the Doppler spectrum, and the ratio of the reflectivity factors for the 3.21 and 10.0 cm radar wavelengths used. An analysis of the possible effects of natural or artificial modification of the hail size distribution are discussed.

Ulbrich, C. W.↗

Imaging Large Scale Structure in the X-ray Sky

We present the first results of a wide solid angle, moderately deep Chandra survey of the Lockman Hole North West Region. Our 9 ACIS-I fields cover an effective solid angle of 0.33 sq deg and reach a depth of 3 x 10(exp -16) erg/sq cm/s in the 0.4-2 keV band, and 3 x 10(exp -15) erg/sq cm/s in the 2-8 keV band. The best fit logN-logS for the entire field, the largest contiguous Chandra field yet observed, matches well onto that of the Chandra Deep Field North. This indicates that over 90% of the 2-8 keV X-ray background is resolved into point sources. We show that the full range of the 'cosmic variance' previously seen in different Chandra fields can be reproduced in a small region of the sky. The count-in-cells analysis shows that the 2-10 keV band sources have much larger angular correlation scale than that of the 0.4-2 keV band. We found the large difference is likely to be caused by a stronger spatial correlation in the hard band sources rather than the redshift effect.

Yang, Y.↗