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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Hydrologic Applications of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Data

Gravimetry-based terrestrial water storage time series have great potential value for hydrological research and applications, because no other observing system can provide global maps of the integrated quantity of water stored on and below the land surface. However, these data are challenging to use because their spatial and temporal resolutions are low relative to other hydrological observations and because total terrestrial water storage is a measurement unfamiliar to hydrologists. In this presentation we will review techniques for temporal, horizontal, and vertical disaggregation of GRACE terrestrial water storage anomalies, including data assimilation and integration within a land surface model. We will then discuss initial results from three efforts to use the methods for water resources applications. These include drought monitoring across North America, water cycle assessment over the Middle East North African region, and groundwater depletion estimates for northern India.

Rodell, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗
DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities for Recovering Resources from Municipal Wastewater

Municipal wastewater contains valuable resources including water, energy, and nutrients that often enter and leave wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) without being captured. Currently, plants are increasingly seeking to recover resources and reuse them in a sustainable way. Therefore, the purpose of this project was to assess the potential for recovery and reuse of water and products from municipal wastewater treatment plants across the United States and to examine how this potential varies by region. To accomplish this, three main tasks were set: first, to characterize wastewater treatment plants; second, to characterize technologies and pathways used to recover energy, nutrients, and water from treatment plants; third, to assess the demand for reclaimed resources and products at a regional level by performing spatial analysis. These three tasks were then synthesized to present key findings in this report and a geospatial dataset with the hope of guiding the increased use of resource recovery technologies in the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep potential model with long-range electrostatic interactions

Machine learning models for the potential energy of multi-atomic systems, such as the deep potential (DP) model, make molecular simulations with the accuracy of quantum mechanical density functional theory possible at a cost only moderately higher than that of empirical force fields. However, the majority of these models lack explicit long-range interactions and fail to describe properties that derive from the Coulombic tail of the forces. To overcome this limitation, we extend the DP model by approximating the long-range electrostatic interaction between ions (nuclei + core electrons) and valence electrons with that of distributions of spherical Gaussian charges located at ionic and electronic sites. The latter are rigorously defined in terms of the centers of the maximally localized Wannier distributions, whose dependence on the local atomic environment is modeled accurately by a deep neural network. In the DP long-range (DPLR) model, the electrostatic energy of the Gaussian charge system is added to short-range interactions that are represented as in the standard DP model. The resulting potential energy surface is smooth and possesses analytical forces and virial. Missing effects in the standard DP scheme are recovered, improving on accuracy and predictive power. By including long-range electrostatics, DPLR correctly extrapolates to large systems the potential energy surface learned from quantum mechanical calculations on smaller systems. We illustrate the approach with three examples: the potential energy profile of the water dimer, the free energy of interaction of a water molecule with a liquid water slab, and the phonon dispersion curves of the NaCl crystal.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2005

A comparison of soil moisture sensors for space flight applications

Plants will be an important part of future long-term space missions. Automated plant growth systems require accurate and reliable methods of monitoring soil moisture levels. There are a number of different methods to accomplish this task. This study evaluated sensors using the capacitance method (ECH2O), the heat-pulse method (TMAS), and tensiometers, compared to soil water loss measured gravimetrically in a side-by-side test. The experiment monitored evaporative losses from substrate compartments filled with 1- to 2-mm baked calcinated clay media. The ECH2O data correlated well with the gravimetric measurements, but over a limited range of soil moisture. The averaged TMAS sensor data overstated soil moisture content levels. The tensiometer data appeared to track evaporative losses in the 0.5- to 2.5-kPa range of matric potential that corresponds to the water content needed to grow plants. This small range is characteristic of large particle media, and thus high-resolution tensiometers are required to distinguish changing moisture contents in this range.

NASA Center KSC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Microwave radiometry for monitoring the diverse cloudiness regimes on Earth: A review

Recent work concerning the use of microwave radiometers in space to provide views of the water content of clouds is reported. Recently, theoretical algorithms were refined and the sampling by microwave radiometers for polar orbiting satellite became more commensurate in resolution and coverage with the scale of the meteorological phenomena. Parameters available from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) include total integrated water vapor (kg/sq m), integrated cloud liquid water (kg/sq m), rain rate (mm/hr), and an index for the presence and concentration of large ice particles; this so called scattering index can also be converted to a rain rate, although conversion is still rather uncertain. The hydrologic aspects of climatically important cloud systems on the Earth such as subtropical stratus decks, tropical convection, and midlatitude and polar cyclone can thus be monitored with the SSM/I parameters. The diagnostic as well as prognostic potential of these satellite derived water content properties of cloud systems are also discussed.

Katsaros, Kristina B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative techno-economic assessment of osmotically-assisted reverse osmosis and batch-operated vacuum-air-gap membrane distillation for high-salinity water desalination

New developments in pressure- and thermally driven membrane desalination technologies offer the potential to cost-effectively treat high-salinity waters, especially when powered by low-cost solar electricity and thermal energy. This paper presents a comparative techno-economic assessment of the state-of-the-art most promising pressure- and thermally driven membrane technologies for high recovery desalination, namely, osmotically-assisted reverse osmosis (OARO) and batch-operated vacuum-air-gap membrane distillation (batch V-AGMD), to produce potable water while concentrating brine within the range of 140–290 g/L TDS for minimum-liquid-discharge (MLD) and zero-liquid-discharge (ZLD) applications. It is shown that both OARO and batch V-AGMD can treat feedwater and brines with TDS in the range of 30–125 g/L with corresponding fresh water recovery rates of 85–25%. When low cost solar electricity and thermal energy are used, the resulting levelized cost of water (LCOW) from OARO is in the range of 0.70–6.28 $/m 3 , and that from batch-V-AGMD is in the range of 1.74–2.77 $/m 3 . OARO is more cost-effective than batch V-AGMD when feedwater salinity is below 70 g/L and recovery below 75%, whereas batch V-AGMD is more cost-effective at higher recovery rates and salinity levels. Finally, the sensitivity of this comparison on energy prices and module costs is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ab Initio Calculations of Water Line Strengths

We report on the determination of a high quality ab initiu potential energy surface (PES) and dipole moment function for water. This PES is empirically adjusted to improve the agreement between the computed line positions and those from the HITRAN 92 data base with J less than 6 for H2O. The changes in the PES are small, nonetheless including an estimate of core (oxygen 1s) electron correlation greatly improves the agreement with experiment. Using this adjusted PES, we can match 30,092 of the 30,117 transitions in the HITRAN 96 data base for H2O with theoretical lines. The 10,25,50,75, and 90 percentiles of the difference between the calculated and tabulated line positions are -0.11, -0.04, -0.01, 0.02, and 0.07 l/cm. Non-adiabatic effects are not explicitly included. About 3% of the tabulated line positions appear to be incorrect. Similar agreement using this adjusted PES is obtained for the oxygen 17 and oxygen 18 isotopes. For HDO, the agreement is not as good, with root-mean-square error of 0.25 l/cm for lines with J less than 6. This error is reduced to 0.02 l/cm by including a small asymmetric correction to the PES, which is parameterized by simultaneously fitting to HDO md D2O data. Scaling this correction by mass factors yields good results for T2O and HTO. The intensities summed over vibrational bands are usually in good agreement between the calculations and the tabulated results, but individual lines strengths can differ greatly. A high temperature list consisting of 307,721,352 lines is generated for H2O using our PES and dipole moment function.

Schwenke, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phosphonium-Based Metal Halide Semiconductors: When a Single Atom Dictates Water and Thermal Stability

Phosphonium-based (R-P(R’) 3 + ) metal halide semiconductors (MHS) emerged recently as a promising family of materials offering enhanced water and thermal stability over conventional ammonium-based (R-NH 3 + ) MHS. Despite this performance, there is a lack of systematic studies that elucidate the origin of these features as well as the underlying optoelectronic properties. Here, we report here the synthesis of nine new 1D materials (L)PbX 3 (L= C4-P, C6-P, C6-N, P3-P, P4-P, X= I, Br), using custom made organic ligands, namely butyl(triethyl)phosphonium bromide (C4-P), hexyl(triethyl)phosphonium bromide (C6-P), benzyl(triethyl)phosphonium bromide (P3-P), benzyl(trimethyl)phosphonium bromide (P4-P), and hexyl(triethyl)ammonium bromide (C6-N). Most of the materials are water stable for over 21 months, while the assembly of the isostructural (C6-N)PbBr 3 and (C6-P)PbBr 3 allowed us to directly identify the impact of a single atom (phosphorus versus nitrogen), on water stability. Notably, the C6-P analog remains water stable for 21 months, whereas the C6-N analog dissolves in water. It was found that neither crystal packing nor the lack of hydrogen bond interactions with water is responsible for this record stability performance, challenging currently established claims on the 1 origin of water stability in MHS. All materials feature broad light emission at RT, with (P3-P)PbBr 3 exhibiting a PLQY of 22.0% ascribed to permanent traps, while electrochemical studies uncovered for the first time the redox properties and their strong potential for the sensing of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in water samples. Our work showcases the potential of these compounds for applications where thermal and water stability are interwoven, potentially rendering their (R-NH 3 + ) based counterparts obsolete.

PFAS sensing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Continuous sensor suite measurements of weather, energy, soil and flux at four PumpHouse sites at the East River, Colorado

The purpose of this package is to monitor energy and water fluxes using a comprehensive set of sensors integrated on a tripod set up at 4 locations at the East River watershed in Colorado in the Upper Colorado River Basin as part of the Scientific Focus Area (SFA) research led by the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). This is a continuous sensor suite measurements of weather, energy, soil and flux at four East River pumphouse sites (ER-PHS1, ER-PHS2, ER-PHS3 and ER-PHS4) include: (1) soil CO2 concentration, CO2 flux and heat flux from soil surface; (2) photosynthetic active radiation flux at 1 m; (3) incoming/outcoming short and long wave radiation at 1 m, and user calculated net short and long wave radiation; (4) oxygen concentration and surface infrared temperature; (5) soil volumetric water content, temperature, and electrical conductivity at 10, 30, 60, 115 cm depth 115 cm depth; (6) soil matric potential and temperature at 30 cm depth; (7) incoming short wave radiation at 3 m height; (8) rainfall precipitation; (9) lightning strikes and strike distances; (10) wind direction and speed, maximum wind gust at 3 m; (11) air temperature, vapor pressure and barometric pressure at 3 m; (12) X _axis_level and Y_axis_level_(degree), tilt of the ATMOS 41 sensor; (13) maximum rainfall rate; (14) relative humidity sensor temperature at 3 m; (15) internally calculated vapor pressure deficit at 3 m with vapor pressure, relative humidity and sensor temperature measurements; (16) user calculated vapor pressure.These datasets contain data from Oct 11 2019 to March 20, 2020, and new datasets will be updated on annual basis. Files uploaded in Excel and Word, with copies in csv and pdf format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preventing leaching from lead water pipes with electrochemistry: an exploratory study

Toxic levels of lead leaching from ageing water distribution infrastructure affect over 5000 public drinking water systems in the US. Pipe replacement, the most effective solution to this problem, is prohibitively expensive. Additionally, chemical conditioning of drinking water using orthophosphates, although cost-effective, does not quickly stop lead leaching once it has started. We propose a novel approach to stop lead leaching: to rapidly form an insoluble scale within lead pipes using an external power supply. We report on the feasibility of this approach by first anodizing lead coupons and lead pipes reclaimed from a local water distribution using a phosphate electrolyte and different potentials, pH values, and phosphate concentrations. We subsequently exposed these anodized lead coupons and pipes to synthetic tap water to evaluate their lead leaching rates. We found that polarizing lead coupons in the presence of a 0.05 M phosphate solution decreased lead leaching by up to a 100-fold, relative to leaching from polished bare lead. Similarly, polarizing the reclaimed lead pipes (with a preexisting scale) decreased lead leaching from an average of 36 ppb to 7 ppb. These results were observed when applying potentials that favor Pb(IV) formation, which resulted in the buildup of PbO 2 and Pb 5 (PO 4 ) 3 OH in both lead coupons and pipes. Our findings indicate that this novel technology has the potential to rapidly decrease equilibrium lead levels in tap water below the EPA action limit of 15 ppb, and thus deserves further exploration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conducting thermal energy to the membrane/water interface for the enhanced desalination of hypersaline brines using membrane distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) is a membrane-based thermal desalination process capable of treating hypersaline brines. Standard MD systems rely on preheating the feed to drive the desalination process. However, relying on the feed to carry thermal energy is limited by a decline of the thermal driving force as the water moves across the membrane, and temperature polarization. In contrast, supplying heat directly into the feed channel, either through the membrane or other channel surfaces, has the potential of minimizing temperature polarization, increasing single-pass water recoveries, and decreasing the number of heat exchangers in the system. When solar thermal energy can be utilized, particularly if the solar heat is optimally delivered to enhance water evaporation and process performance, MD processes can potentially be improved in terms of energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, or operating costs. Here we describe an MD process using layered composite membranes that include a high-thermal-conductivity layer for supplying heat directly to the membrane-water interface and the flow channel. Here, the MD system showed stable performance with water flux up to 9 L/m 2 /hr, and salt rejection >99.9% over hours of desalinating hypersaline feed (100 g/L NaCl). In addition to bench-scale system, we developed a computational fluid dynamics model that successfully described the transport phenomena in the system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2022

Mississippi Embayment Water Resources: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Understand Groundwater Recharge in the Mississippi Regional Aquifer System

The Memphis Sand Aquifer (MSA) is located in the Mississippi Embayment which extends 250,000 square kilometers across nine states. Groundwater recharge factors that influence the narrow recharge zone of the MSA include precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and landcover changes. The unsustainable water practices and increasing landcover change from urban development in the MSA's narrow recharge zone threaten the aquifer’s groundwater storage. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer, the team used data from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). These datasets included annually-averaged precipitation, evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, biannual landcover change, and monthly total water storage which were used to create groundwater recharge factors maps and timeseries. The evaporative stress index map, water balance map, and landcover change maps were used to identify thriving areas. The team found precipitation did not express a strong linear trend and showed high precipitation years in 2017 and 2018, and a drought year in 2011. The potential evapotranspiration showed a weak negative linear trend. The landcover change showed shifts in forested areas and urban development. The team identified four thriving areas in the western side of Tennessee that successfully contribute to aquifer recharge due to increased forest area, sufficient water use, low changes in total water storage, and lateral positioning to streams. These end products allowed our partners to make informed decisions about areas that are thriving in the Mississippi Embayment recharge zone for conservation efforts of the aquifer.

Lauren Mahoney↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Water Quality in Watersheds: From Here to the Next Generation

In this synthesis, we assess present research and anticipate future development needs in modeling water quality in watersheds. We first discuss areas of potential improvement in the representation of freshwater systems pertaining to water quality, including representation of environmental interfaces, in-stream water quality and process interactions, soil health and land management, and (peri-)urban areas. In addition, we provide insights into the contemporary challenges in the practices of watershed water quality modeling, including quality control of monitoring data, model parameterization and calibration, uncertainty management, scale mismatches and provisioning of modeling tools. Finally, we make three recommendations to provide a path forward for improving watershed water quality modeling science, infrastructure and practices. These include building stronger collaborations between experimentalists and modelers, bridging gaps between modelers and stakeholders, and cultivating and applying procedural knowledge to better govern and support water quality modeling processes within organizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial polar regions is reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable Mars Campaign assessments. The paper concludes by capturing additional findings and describing additional simulations and tests that should be conducted to better characterize the performance of the identified terrestrial technologies for accessing subsurface ice, as well as the Rodriguez Well, under Mars environmental conditions.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable Mars Campaign assessments. The paper concludes by capturing additional findings and describing additional simulations and tests that should be conducted to better characterize the performance of the identified terrestrial technologies for accessing subsurface ice, as well as the Rodriguez Well, under Mars environmental conditions.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗