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At least 991 records · Page 55

Study of effect of PWR cold leg temperature gradient on reactor core condition

Effects of temperature and flow gradients in Westinghouse designed three-loop Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) cold legs, the piping between the main coolant pump and the reactor vessel, were evaluated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code STAR CCM+ and coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic (T/H) code system VERA. In the parametric study, several symmetric and asymmetric temperature gradients that were significantly larger than those observed from plant measurements were applied to the cold leg inlets for comparison with the base case without any temperature gradient. A CFD model using the STAR-CCM+ code was developed for a portion of the RCS region between the Reactor Coolant Pump (RCP) and the core inlet based on previously validated modeling approach. The CFD simulation results were processed for the temperature and flow rate distributions at the core inlet as input to the VERA calculations. The VERA code system consists of COBRA-TF (CTF) for thermal-hydraulics, MPACT for reactor physics and neutron transport, and ORIGEN for isotopic depletion. The VERA model was for depletion calculations of a high-burnup loading pattern with the reactor core in pin-by-pin and subchannel resolution. The results of the study indicate that the postulated temperature gradients within the PWR cold legs do not result in any significant changes in the core inlet temperature distributions and the core power distributions during the reactor operation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Digitally manufactured air plasma-on-water reactor for nitrate production

The sustainable production of food to support the increasing world population is one of humanity’s most pressing challenges. Plasma activated water, produced using renewable energy, can help fulfill plants’ needs in sustainable agriculture approaches. The design, implementation, and characterization of a digitally manufactured air plasma-on-water reactor (POWR) for the synthesis of nitrate as green nitrogen fertilizer is presented. The interaction of air plasma-generated reactive oxygen and nitrogen species with water produces nitrate (NO 3 - ) and related species, which are the main nitrogen-containing nutrients for plants. The mild conditions of the operation of the POWR opens the possibility to use plastics, particularly through digital manufacturing strategies such as 3D-printing, for its fabrication. A pin-to-plate reactor configuration powered by high-voltage alternating power is chosen due to its simplicity and efficacy. A computational thermal-fluid model is used to evaluate the design and attain expected operational characteristics. The experimental characterization of the POWR encompassed design and operation parameters, namely electrode-water spacing, air flow rate, and voltage level. A machine learning approach is implemented to extract and quantify characteristic features of the plasma–water interaction, such plasma volume and plasma–water interface area. Experimental results revealed that the nitrate production rate varies linearly with dimensionless plasma volume. The design, fabrication, and characterization methods presented can be adapted to other POWRs and help enable on-demand nitrogen fertilizer production at low environmental and economic cost.

Physics↗

Changes in trachoma indicators in Kiribati with two rounds of azithromycin mass drug administration, measured in serial population-based surveys

Baseline mapping in the two major population centers of Kiribati showed that trachoma was a public health problem in need of programmatic interventions. After conducting two annual rounds of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA), Kiribati undertook trachoma impact surveys in 2019, using standardized two-stage cluster surveys in the evaluation units of Kiritimati Island and Tarawa. In Kiritimati, 516 households were visited and in Tarawa, 772 households were visited. Nearly all households had a drinking water source and access to an improved latrine. The prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis remained above the elimination threshold (0.2% in ≥15-year-olds) and was virtually unchanged from baseline. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF) in 1–9-year-olds decreased by approximately 40% from baseline in both evaluation units but remained above the 5% TF prevalence threshold for stopping MDA. TF prevalence at impact survey was 11.5% in Kiritimati and 17.9% in Tarawa. Infection prevalence in 1–9-year-olds by PCR was 0.96% in Kiritimati and 3.3% in Tarawa. Using a multiplex bead assay to measure antibodies to the C. trachomatis antigen Pgp3, seroprevalence in 1–9-year-olds was 30.2% in Kiritimati and 31.4% in Tarawa. The seroconversion rate, in seroconversion events/100 children/year, was 9.0 in Kiritimati and 9.2 in Tarawa. Seroprevalence and seroconversion rates were both assessed by four different assays, with strong agreement between tests. These results show that, despite decreases in indicators associated with infection at impact survey, trachoma remains a public health problem in Kiribati, and provide additional information about changes in serological indicators after MDA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hemispheric Asymmetry of Phase Partition in Mixed‐Phase Clouds Based on Near Global‐Scale Airborne Observations

Mixed-phase clouds contribute to substantial uncertainties in global climate models due to their complex microphysical properties. Former model evaluations almost exclusively rely on satellite observations to assess cloud phase distributions globally. This study investigated mixed-phase cloud properties using near global-scale in situ observation data sets from 14 flight campaigns in combination with collocated output from a global climate model. The Southern Hemisphere (SH) shows significantly higher occurrence frequencies and higher mass fractions of supercooled liquid water than Northern Hemisphere (NH) based on observations at 0.2 and 100 km horizontal scales. Such hemispheric asymmetry is not captured by the model. The model also consistently overestimates liquid water content (LWC) in all cloud phases but shows ice water content (IWC) biases that vary with phase. Key processes contributing to model biases in phase partition can be identified through the combination of evaluation of phase frequency, liquid mass fraction, LWC and IWC.

Yang, Ching An [San Jose State University, CA (Uni↗

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sandia 7uPCX Critical Experiments Exploring the Effects of Fuel-to-Water Ratio Variations

The Sandia Critical Experiments (SCX) Program provides a specialized facility for performing water moderated and reflected critical experiments with UO 2 fuel rod arrays. A history of safe reactor operations and flexibility in reactor core configuration has resulted in the completion of several benchmark critical experiment evaluations that are published in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The LEUCOMP-THERM-078 and LEU-COMP-THERM-080 evaluations from the handbook provide similar cases for reference. The set of experiments described here were performed using the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) fuel to measure the effects of decreasing the fuel-to-water volume ratio on the critical array size. This was accomplished by using fuel loading patterns to effectively increase the pitch of the fuel arrays in the assembly. The fuel rod pitch variations provided assembly configurations that ranged from strongly undermoderated to slightly overmoderated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigation of Frozen Chemistry for Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs)

Understanding accident progression and the potential/conditions for fission product release from fuel is necessary to evaluate safety for any nuclear reactor system. Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) under development need such analysis to support safety evaluations. Fission product chemistry specific to MSR concepts is a critical area that introduces distinct considerations relative to the current state-of-knowledge in reactor safety, primarily developed for water-moderated nuclear reactor systems. In Light Water Reactor (LWR) systems, it is necessary to capture the chemical interaction of fission products with the reactor evironment, containment and confinement systems. The overall effects at this point are relatively well understood for the purposes of performing safety evaluations. A key insight from LWR studies is that fission product chemical behavior can be reasonably captured by modeling approaches where the chemistry is "frozen". These modeling approaches assume that radionuclide reaction and speciation can be represented by chemical classes, each with characteristic transport behavior that is invariant under a broad range of thermochemical conditions. However, radionuclides can exhibit a range of behavior in the liquid salt-melt phase of the coolant used in MSRs. Radionuclides, salt, and the metal containment surfaces (i.e. pipes) can co-exist in dynamic equilibrium that could evolve with small system mass changes. A detailed investigation to the degree the equilibrium state can dynamically evolve with changes in the conditions of the molten salt mixture has not been previously conducted. It is currently not well understood where frozen chemistry assumptions are valid. Expanding the state-of-knowledge in this regard is relevant to better assessing the range of chemical effects that should be incorporated as part of MSR safety assessments. This investigation used the Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) module of the Standardized Computer-Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code to generate simulated radionuclide inventories for the MSR Experiment (MSRE) and then modeled reactor chemical speciation using the Molten Salt Thermodynamic Database – Thermochemical (MSTDB-TC) coupled with Thermochimica. The effect of composition variation during decay of fission product inventory in a molten salt over a period of 500 days prolonged post- at multiple temperatures was studied. Mass fractions for fluorine and berilium were varied in order to probe the effects of free fluorine control. Finally, speciation of fluoride reactors were showed by comparing MSRE readionuclide inventories with a FLiBe based molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR). The results showed that fission product mass change has little effect on phase mass changes and vapor pressures for fluoride species, but differ with varying carrier and fuel salt compositions. However, iodine species were found to have a vapor pressure not only dependent on temperature, but also the free fluorine potential, releasing iodine when the free fluorine potential is equal to the iodine inventory. This observation, however, arose under free fluorine potentials that are very unlikely to be realized in typical molten salt mixtures. Despite this observation, temperature was found to be the dominant parameter that drove phase change and fission product species vapor pressure. The results indicate that the current frozen chemistry approach is adequate for MSR analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Contribution of sewage to occurrence of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors in natural water

Phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors (PDE-5i, such as Sildenafil, Tadalafil and Vardenafil, mainly prescribed to treat erectile dysfunction) and their generic drug equivalents have been widely marketed and consumed in Korea. From the concentrations detected in wastewater, we could deduce that relatively large amounts of PDE-5i were consumed without a legal prescription. Thus, PDE-5i’s presence in the environment via sewage is unavoidable, and their environmental fate within a sewage treatment plant (STP) should be evaluated. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of three PDE-5i analogs in the influent and effluent of two STPs and the receiving water bodies. The PDE-5i concentration in total reached 62 ± 12 (STP#1) and 88 ± 37 ng L -1 (STP#2) in the sewage influent; about 70% of it was Sildenafil in both STPs. However, they were hardly removed by the STPs as the removal efficiency of the STPs was less than 10% ± 5%. Therefore, the pharmaceuticals were detected in the receiving water (lower than 7 ng L -1 as a total amount) and the concentration slightly increased downstream of the STPs. A simple mass balance model applied for the compounds in the STP effluent and receiving water bodies also confirmed that the discharged PDE-5i were quite persistent. Lastly, we identified temporal and regional patterns in the consumption of the drugs from daily variations of PDE-5i in the influent to these two STPs. For instance, the levels of PDE-5i in the sewage significantly increased on weekends (from Friday to Saturday), and especially in the area where adult-entertainment businesses are common. We estimated that the amount of PDE-5i consumption in this area was 31% higher than that in the area with fewer nightlife spots. Considering that they are pharmaceutically active and resistant to treatment processes within an STP, it is advised that a regular monitoring and management program for PDE-5i should be developed to prevent the discharge of the pharmaceuticals into the water environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

Characterizing vertical upper ocean temperature structures in the European Arctic through unsupervised machine learning

In-situ observations of subsurface ocean temperatures are, in many regions, inconsistently distributed in time and space. These spatio-temporal inconsistencies in the observational network lead to difficulties in utilizing those observations effectively for ocean model evaluation or understanding larger-scale ocean characteristics. Model accuracy of subsurface ocean characteristics is especially important within regions that contain complex ocean structures. One such region is the European Arctic which not only contains several types of water masses with unique characteristics, but also wintertime sea ice coverage and complex bathymetry. This study presents an unsupervised neural networking technique that can be used in combination with traditional ocean model evaluation techniques to provide additional information on the accuracy of modeled vertical ocean temperature profiles. Self-organizing maps is an unsupervised machine learning technique that we apply to approximately twenty thousand Argo and CTD temperature profiles from 2012 to 2020 in the European Arctic to categorize the observed vertical ocean temperature structures in the top 150 m. The observed ocean profile categories, or neurons, defined by the self-organizing map show strong spatial and temporal dependencies. We then use the neuron weights, or the learned temperature profile structure of each neuron, to validate the spatial and temporal variability of modeled vertical temperature structures. This analysis gives us new insights about the model’s capabilities to reproduce specific vertical structures of the top-most ocean layer within different regions and seasons. Mapping modeled ocean temperature profiles onto the neuron-space of the observationally-defined self organized map highlights the potential of this method to advance our understanding of model deficiencies in that region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and Scripts Associated with the Manuscript “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids”

This data package is associated with the publication “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids” published in EGU Biogeochemistry (Laan et al. 2025). In this research, water column respiration (ERwc) data, surface water chemistry data, organic matter (OM) chemistry data, and publicly available geospatial data were used in analysis to evaluate the variability in ERwc at 47 sites across the Yakima River basin in Washington, USA. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package includes the data inputs, and outputs, and R scripts to reproduce all the analyses performed in the manuscript and create manuscript figures. The data package is comprised of three main folders (Code, Data, and Figures). The Code folder is comprised of four scripts and three analysis-specific subfolders that contain the R scripts to perform the analyses described in the publication and create publication figures. The Data folder is comprised of two “.csv” files and four subfolders that contain data input and output files. The Published_Data folder contains a readme that directs the user to download the appropriate files and add to this folder when using scripts. The Figures folder includes figures from the manuscript in “.pdf” and “.png” formats and a folder with intermediate figure files. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository which can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-RC2-SPS-ERwc. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-Conduit Hydropower for Public Water Supply Systems: Development Challenges and Costs

Conduit hydropower leverages existing water infrastructure to provide energy solutions, though deployment has been slow. A 2022 US Department of Energy (DOE)–funded report led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) summarizes a reconnaissance-level study of hydropower potential at national conduits (Kao et al., 2022). The report includes power and energy estimates across three major sectors of conduit hydropower potential: municipal, agricultural, and industrial. Water resources include public water supply systems (municipal and industrial), irrigation canal systems (agricultural), thermoelectric cooling systems (industrial), and wastewater systems (municipal and industrial). In total, 1.41 GW of power potential was estimated nationwide. Subsequently, DOE has funded ORNL through the Conduit Hydropower Engineering, Evaluation, and Technology Acceleration project (CHEETA) to improve deployment potential for conduit hydropower. Work thus far has focused on “in-conduit” hydropower (ICH)—or “in-pipe” hydropower—for public water supply systems, though the project is planning to cover conduit hydropower more broadly. The timeline of ORNL’s conduit hydropower related research and development (R&D) is shown in Figure 1. The results of CHEETA should benefit the hydropower industry by providing insights into costs, barriers, and other considerations that impact project development. The hydropower industry and municipal/industrial conduit stakeholders will use the output to inform development decisions and advance low-impact hydropower growth in the US.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Abstract Evaluation of long-term temporal and spatial climatic change in mountainous regions is a critical challenge because of the interactive effects of multiple land and climatic factors and processes. Here we present the application of the statistical framework to the assessment of changes of climatic conditions, using data from 17 meteorological stations across the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA, and spanning the period from 1966 to 2021. The framework is developed based on (1) a time-series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) evaluation and time series analysis of potential evapotranspiration (ET o ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), aridity index (AI), standard precipitation index (SPI) and standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and (3) a temporal-spatial climatic zonation of the studied area based on the hierarchical clustering and PCA analysis of the SPEI, because the SPEI can be considered an integrative characteristic of the changes of climatic conditions. The Budyko model, with the application of the Penman–Monteith equation for the estimation of ET o , was used to determine the ET. The time series analysis of the AI is used to identify the periods with energy limited and water limited conditions. Hierarchical clustering of site locations for the three temporal segments of the SPEI showed a significant temporal-spatial shifts, indicating that dynamic climatic processes drive zonation patterns. Therefore, the watershed climatic zonation requires periodic re-evaluation based on the structural time series analysis of meteorological and water balance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of preservation protocols for oxygen-sensitive minerals within laminated aquatic sediments

Laminated sediments can record seasonal changes in sedimentation of material from anoxic waters, including minerals of the redox-sensitive elements Fe, Mn, and S that form under varying oxygen levels, mineral saturation conditions, and from microbial metabolism. However, preserving the oxygen-sensitive minerals for identification is challenging when preservation of the spatial arrangement of laminae is also required. In this study, we compare methods for embedding sedimentary materials from anoxic waters and sediments from Brownie Lake, Minnesota, USA for analysis of the speciation for Fe, Mn, and S using synchrotron-based X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES). We found that acetone dehydration and resin replacement in a 100% N 2 glovebox successfully preserved the speciation of Fe and Mn minerals within laminated sediments. However, acetone removed some sulfur species from sediments, and epoxies contained sulfur species, which challenged identification of native sulfur species. Results from this study will aid researchers who are interested in spatial analysis of oxygen sensitive sediments, soils, or microbial mats in choosing a preservation method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Subsurface Characterization for Evaluating Geothermal Resource Potential from Existing Oil and Gas Wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Oil and gas (O&G) wells often encounter co-produced hot water, possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. The City of Tuttle is located on the eastern part of the Anadarko sedimentary basin in Oklahoma with high heat-in-place potential and recovery capability at depth. This study aims at demonstrating the potential of geothermal energy production for direct-use applications in two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle via repurposing existing O&G wells. In this scope, geochemistry, geology, and borehole log data were collected and incorporated into a 3D conceptual subsurface model. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to represent the study area topography with four O&G wells. In addition, hydrogeochemical characteristics of the geothermal fluid and scaling potential were analyzed using ternary diagrams and chemical ratios to develop mixing models. The subsurface geology model indicated that the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian Sandstone and Limestone formations, implying a porosity ranging between 12% and 22%, and a permeability up to 3.90E-14 m2 in certain reservoir levels. The reservoir temperature is expected to be ranging between 80 degrees C to 95 degrees C around 3 km depth with an average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km. Chemical geothermometers also estimated the reservoir temperature as 90 degrees C. Findings of the chemical model demonstrated that the geothermal fluid is Sodium-Potassium-Chloride-Sulfate type and possibly mixed with shallow groundwater resulting in higher Ca and Mg concentrations and lower Na/K ratio implying lower calcite scaling. These results comprehensively characterize the potential of geothermal resources in the study area and imply that geothermal energy production by repurposing existing O&G wells is suitable for low-temperature direct-use applications.

gas wells↗

A Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS): Evaluating the Role of Physical-Biological Coupling on Nutrients and Farm Yield

Offshore aquaculture has the potential to expand the macroalgal industry. However, moving into deeper waters requires suspended structures that will present novel farm-environment interactions. Here, we present a computational modeling framework, the Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS), to explore within-farm modifications to light, seawater flow, and nutrient fields across time and space scales relevant to macroalgae. A regional ocean model informs the site-specific setting, the Santa Barbara Channel in the Southern California Bight. A fine-scale hydrodynamic model predicts modified flows and turbulent mixing within the farm. A spatially resolved macroalgal growth model, parameterized for giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , predicts kelp biomass. Key findings from model integration are that regional ocean conditions set overall farm performance, while fine-scale within-farm circulation and nutrient delivery are important to resolve variation in within-farm macroalgal performance. Therefore, we conclude that models resolving within-farm dynamics can provide benefit to farmers with insight on how farm design and regional ocean conditions interact to influence overall yield. Here, the presence of repeating longlines aligned with the mean current generate flow diversions around the farm as well as attached Langmuir circulations and increased turbulence intensity. These flow-induced phenomena lead to less biomass in the interior portion of the farm relative to the edges. We also find that there is an effluent “footprint” that extends as much as 20 km beyond the farm. In this regard, MACMODS can be used to not only evaluate farm design and cultivation practices that maximize yield but also explore interactions between the farm and ecosystem in order to minimize impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗