Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗

Mission Cycle Life Prediction for C/SiC Composites

The residual strength and life of C/SiC is dominated by carbon interface and fiber oxidation if thermal and mechanical stresses combine with thermal expansion mismatch in a manner such that seal coat and matrix cracks are open to allow oxygen ingress. Under these circumstances life can be predicted by simple oxidation based models based on reaction controlled kinetics at low temperature and gas phase diffusion controlled kinetics at high temperature. Key life governing variables in these models include temperature, applied stress, initial strength, oxygen partial pressure and total pressure. In this paper these models are described and extended to mission cycle life prediction.

Levine, Stanley R.↗

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Chronis, Themis↗

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

Air pollution↗

Aboveground biomass density models for NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar mission

NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is collecting spaceborne full waveform lidar data with a primary science goal of producing accurate estimates of forest aboveground biomass density (AGBD). This paper presents the development of the models used to create GEDI’s footprint-level (~25 m) AGBD (GEDI04_A) product, including a description of the datasets used and the procedure for final model selection. The data used to fit our models are from a compilation of globally distributed spatially and temporally coincident field and airborne lidar datasets, whereby we simulated GEDI-like waveforms from airborne lidar to build a calibration database. We used this database to expand the geographic extent of past waveform lidar studies, and divided the globe into four broad strata by Plant Functional Type (PFT) and six geographic regions. GEDI’s waveform-to-biomass models take the form of parametric Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with simulated Relative Height (RH) metrics as predictor variables. From an exhaustive set of candidate models, we selected the best input predictor variables, and data transformations for each geographic stratum in the GEDI domain to produce a set of comprehensive predictive footprint-level models. We found that model selection frequently favored combinations of RH metrics at the 98th, 90th, 50th, and 10th height above ground-level percentiles (RH98, RH90, RH50, and RH10, respectively), but that inclusion of lower RH metrics (e.g. RH10) did not markedly improve model performance. Second, forced inclusion of RH98 in all models was important and did not degrade model performance, and the best performing models were parsimonious, typically having only 1-3 predictors. Third, stratification by geographic domain (PFT, geographic region) improved model performance in comparison to global models without stratification. Fourth, for the vast majority of strata, the best performing models were fit using square root transformation of field AGBD and/or height metrics. There was considerable variability in model performance across geographic strata, and areas with sparse training data and/or high AGBD values had the poorest performance. These models are used to produce global predictions of AGBD, but will be improved in the future as more and better training data become available.

Laura Duncanson↗

Modeling the Variability of the BL Lacertae Object PKS 2155-304

The bright X-ray-selected BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304 has been the target of two intense multi-wavelength campaigns in 1991 November and in 1994 May. Although the spectral energy distributions at both epochs were quite similar, the source exhibited two very distinct variability patterns that cannot be easily reconciled with homogeneous one-zone C7 jet models. During the first epoch the variability was almost achromatic in amplitude, with a time lag between X-rays and ultraviolet radiation (UV) of approximately three hours, while during the second epoch the variability amplitude increased as a function of wavelength with the EUV flare peaking approximately one day after the X-ray flare. We model the source using a time-dependent inhomogeneous accelerating jet model. We reproduce the general characteristics of the different variability signatures by assuming that plasma disturbances with different physical properties propagate downstream in an underlying jet characterized by the same set of physical parameters at both epochs. A time delay of approximately one day between the hardening of the UV spectral index and the UV flux present at both epochs is modeled with stochastic fluctuations in the particle acceleration manifested through small variations of the maximum energy of the injected electrons. We predict that similar time delays will be present in future observations even in the absence of strong variability event. We stress the importance of observations at neighboring frequencies as a diagnostic tool for the structure of the quiescent jet in blazars especially in the seemingly dull case in which strong variability is absent.

Georganopuolos, Markos↗

Review of the Agard S&M panel evaluation program of the NASA-Lewis 'SRP' approach to high-temperature LCF life prediction

Twenty laboratories in six countries participated in this program, each testing its own materials of interest under its own laboratory conditions. In this way the results obtained provided validation of the Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) method for a wide range of materials and insured maximum usefulness to each of the participating laboratories. The first, very necessary step in the evaluation of any life prediction approach - assessing the ability of the method to predict life of simple laboratory specimens subjected to complex loading, was thereby taken. The culmination of this program was the Specialists Meeting that was held in Aalborg, Denmark in April of 1978. At that meeting the various investigators shared their findings, thus providing the basis for an in-depth evaluation of the SRP method. While the results were variable from laboratory to laboratory, most investigators agreed that the SRP method was a significant step toward life prediction in the presence of high temperature and cyclic stresses.

Hirschberg, M. H.↗

Large Engine Technology (LET) Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Contingency Power Materials Knowledge and Lifing Methodologies

This report documents the results of an experimental program conducted on two advanced metallic alloy systems (Rene' 142 directionally solidified alloy (DS) and Rene' N6 single crystal alloy) and the characterization of two distinct internal state variable inelastic constitutive models. The long term objective of the study was to develop a computational life prediction methodology that can integrate the obtained material data. A specialized test matrix for characterizing advanced unified viscoplastic models was specified and conducted. This matrix included strain controlled tensile tests with intermittent relaxtion test with 2 hr hold times, constant stress creep tests, stepped creep tests, mixed creep and plasticity tests, cyclic temperature creep tests and tests in which temperature overloads were present to simulate actual operation conditions for validation of the models. The selected internal state variable models where shown to be capable of representing the material behavior exhibited by the experimental results; however the program ended prior to final validation of the models.

Spring, Samuel D.↗

Optimization methods and silicon solar cell numerical models

An optimization algorithm for use with numerical silicon solar cell models was developed. By coupling an optimization algorithm with a solar cell model, it is possible to simultaneously vary design variables such as impurity concentrations, front junction depth, back junction depth, and cell thickness to maximize the predicted cell efficiency. An optimization algorithm was developed and interfaced with the Solar Cell Analysis Program in 1 Dimension (SCAP1D). SCAP1D uses finite difference methods to solve the differential equations which, along with several relations from the physics of semiconductors, describe mathematically the performance of a solar cell. A major obstacle is that the numerical methods used in SCAP1D require a significant amount of computer time, and during an optimization the model is called iteratively until the design variables converge to the values associated with the maximum efficiency. This problem was alleviated by designing an optimization code specifically for use with numerically intensive simulations, to reduce the number of times the efficiency has to be calculated to achieve convergence to the optimal solution.

Girardini, K.↗

Optimization methods and silicon solar cell numerical models

The goal of this project is the development of an optimization algorithm for use with a solar cell model. It is possible to simultaneously vary design variables such as impurity concentrations, front junction depth, back junctions depth, and cell thickness to maximize the predicted cell efficiency. An optimization algorithm has been developed and interfaced with the Solar Cell Analysis Program in 1 Dimension (SCAPID). SCAPID uses finite difference methods to solve the differential equations which, along with several relations from the physics of semiconductors, describe mathematically the operation of a solar cell. A major obstacle is that the numerical methods used in SCAPID require a significant amount of computer time, and during an optimization the model is called iteratively until the design variables converge to the value associated with the maximum efficiency. This problem has been alleviated by designing an optimization code specifically for use with numerically intensive simulations, to reduce the number of times the efficiency has to be calculated to achieve convergence to the optimal solution. Adapting SCAPID so that it could be called iteratively by the optimization code provided another means of reducing the cpu time required to complete an optimization. Instead of calculating the entire I-V curve, as is usually done in SCAPID, only the efficiency is calculated (maximum power voltage and current) and the solution from previous calculations is used to initiate the next solution.

Girardini, K.↗

Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

Troch, Peter A.↗

Centaur space vehicle pressurized propellant feed system tests

Engine firing tests, using a full-scale flight-weight vehicle, were performed to evaluate a pressurized propellant feed system for the Centaur. The pressurant gases used were helium and hydrogen. The system was designed to replace the boost pumps currently used on Centaur. Two liquid oxygen tank pressurization modes were studied: (1) directly into the ullage and (2) below the propellant surface. Test results showed the two Centaur RL10 engines could be started and run over the range of expected flight variables. No system instabilities were encountered. Measured pressurization gas quantities agreed well with analytically predicted values.

Source record↗

Fatigue failure of materials under narrow band random vibrations. I.

A novel approach for the study of fatigue failure of materials under the multifactor influence of narrow band random vibrations is developed. The approach involves the conduction of an experiment in conjunction with various statistical techniques. Three factors including two statistical properties of the excitation or response are considered and varied simultaneously. A minimum of 6 tests for 3 variables is possible for a fractional f actorial design. The four coefficients of the predicting equation can be independently estimated. A look at 3 predicting equations shows the predominant effect of the root mean square stress of the first order equation.

Huang, T. C.↗

Analysis of liquid metal embrittlement from a bond energy viewpoint

Absorption induced embrittlement of solid metals by certain liquid metals is analyzed through an Engel-Brewer calculation of the solid-liquid interaction energy, and of the effect of the latter in reducing fracture surface energy. The reduction in fracture surface energy is estimated by comparison of the electronic contribution to the solid-liquid interaction energy with solid-solid bond energy for some 40 liquid-solid couples. Regular solution theory is used to estimate mutual solubility as the relative difference in parameter values. Embrittlement can be predicted by using reduction in fracture surface energy and solubility parameter difference as critical variables. The effect of solute additions to the liquid on the degree of embrittlement is interpreted via the same two variables; the principal effect of solutes is to modify solubility relationships at the solid-liquid interface.

Kelley, M. J.↗

Revised prediction (estimation) of Cape Kennedy, Florida, wind speed profile

The prediction of the wind profile maximum speed at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is made for any selected calendar data. The prediction is based on a normal probability distribution model with 15 years of smoothed input data and is static in the sense that no dynamic principles of persistence or synoptic features are considered. Comparison with similar predictions based on 6 years of data shows the same general pattern, but the variability decreased with the increase of sample size.

Guttman, N. B.↗

Use of remote sensing in agriculture

The remote sensing studies of (a) cultivated peanut areas in Southeastern Virginia; (b) studies at the Virginia Truck and Ornamentals Research Station near Painter, Virginia, the Eastern Virginia Research Station near Warsaw, Virginia, the Tidewater Research and Continuing Education Center near Suffolk, Virginia, and the Southern Piedmont Research and Continuing Education Center Blackstone, Virginia; and (c) land use classification studies at Virginia Beach, Virginia are presented. The practical feasibility of using false color infrared imagery to detect and determine the areal extent of peanut disease infestation of Cylindrocladium black rot and Sclerotinia blight is demonstrated. These diseases pose a severe hazard to this major agricultural food commodity. The value of remote sensing technology in terrain analyses and land use classification of diverse land areas is also investigated. Continued refinement of spectral signatures of major agronomic crops and documentation of pertinent environmental variables have provided a data base for the generation of an agricultural-environmental prediction model.

Pettry, D. E.↗

A numerical model study of long-term planetary wave predictability

A numerical model was developed to study planetary wave behavior over periods up to 4 months under the influences of stochastic and diffusive forcing by synoptic scale motions and of sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is suitable for Monte Carlo experiments which provide ensemble mean and variance predictions and permit the response to heating anomalies to be partly separated from random variability. The model incorporates the linear-balanced dynamical equations for wind at two tropospheric levels and temperature at one level. The model atmosphere is forced by semiempirical January heating linearly dependent on local air temperature. Topography and the lower boundary layer are represented by vertical motion and drag functions, respectively, of the lower level wind. The linear phase speeds of Rossby waves are modified to reflect the effect of the stratosphere.

Wobus, R. L.↗