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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

NEOCAM: Near Earth Object Chemical Analysis Mission: Bridging the Gulf between Telescopic Observations and the Chemical and Mineralogical Compositions of Asteroids or Diogenes A: Diagnostic Observation of the Geology of Near Earth Spectrally-Classified Asteroids

Studies of meteorites have yielded a wealth of scientific information based on highly detailed chemical and isotopic studies possible only in sophisticated terrestrial laboratories. Telescopic studies have revealed an enormous (greater than 10(exp 5)) number of physical objects ranging in size from a few tens of meters to several hundred kilometers, orbiting not only in the traditional asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter but also throughout the inner solar system. Many of the largest asteroids are classed into taxonomic groups based on their observed spectral properties and are designated as C, D. X, S or V types (as well as a wide range in sub-types). These objects are certainly the sources far the meteorites in our laboratories, but which asteroids are the sources for which meteorites? Spectral classes are nominally correlated to the chemical composition and physical characteristics of the asteroid itself based on studies of the spectral changes induced in meteorites due to exposure to a simulated space environment. While laboratory studies have produced some notable successes (e.g. the identification of the asteroid Vesta as the source of the H, E and D meteorite classes), it is unlikely that we have samples of each asteroidal spectral type in our meteorite collection. The correlation of spectral type and composition for many objects will therefore remain uncertain until we can return samples of specific asteroid types to Earth for analyses. The best candidates for sample return are asteroids that already come close to the Earth. Asteroids in orbit near 1 A.U. have been classified into three groups (Aten, Apollo & Amor) based on their orbital characteristics. These Near Earth Objects (NEOs) contain representatives of virtually all spectral types and sub-types of the asteroid population identified to date. Because of their close proximity to Earth, NEOs are prime targets for asteroid missions such as the NEAR-Shoemaker NASA Discovery Mission to Eros and the Japanese Hyabusa Mission to Itokawa. Also due to their close proximity to Earth, NEOs constitute the most likely set of celestial objects that will impact us in the relatively near future.

Nuth, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Integrating planning and reactive control

Our research is developing persistent agents that can achieve complex tasks in dynamic and uncertain environments. We refer to such agents as taskable, reactive agents. An agent of this type requires a number of capabilities. The ability to execute complex tasks necessitates the use of strategic plans for accomplishing tasks; hence, the agent must be able to synthesize new plans at run time. The dynamic nature of the environment requires that the agent be able to deal with unpredictable changes in its world. As such, agents must be able to react to unanticipated events by taking appropriate actions in a timely manner, while continuing activities that support current goals. The unpredictability of the world could lead to failure of plans generated for individual tasks. Agents must have the ability to recover from failures by adapting their activities to the new situation, or replanning if the world changes sufficiently. Finally, the agent should be able to perform in the face of uncertainty. The Cypress system, described here, provides a framework for creating taskable, reactive agents. Several features distinguish our approach: (1) the generation and execution of complex plans with parallel actions; (2) the integration of goal-driven and event driven activities during execution; (3) the use of evidential reasoning for dealing with uncertainty; and (4) the use of replanning to handle run-time execution problems. Our model for a taskable, reactive agent has two main intelligent components, an executor and a planner. The two components share a library of possible actions that the system can take. The library encompasses a full range of action representations, including plans, planning operators, and executable procedures such as predefined standard operating procedures (SOP's). These three classes of actions span multiple levels of abstraction.

Wilkins, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Experimental Robot Position Sensor Fault Tolerance Using Accelerometers and Joint Torque Sensors

Robot systems in critical applications, such as those in space and nuclear environments, must be able to operate during component failure to complete important tasks. One failure mode that has received little attention is the failure of joint position sensors. Current fault tolerant designs require the addition of directly redundant position sensors which can affect joint design. The proposed method uses joint torque sensors found in most existing advanced robot designs along with easily locatable, lightweight accelerometers to provide a joint position sensor fault recovery mode. This mode uses the torque sensors along with a virtual passive control law for stability and accelerometers for joint position information. Two methods for conversion from Cartesian acceleration to joint position based on robot kinematics, not integration, are presented. The fault tolerant control method was tested on several joints of a laboratory robot. The controllers performed well with noisy, biased data and a model with uncertain parameters.

Aldridge, Hal A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO 2 on global plant transpiration

As CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses a major hurdle in robustly projecting changes in the global hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review the different processes by which atmospheric CO 2 concentration affects plant transpiration, the several uncertainties related to the complex physiological and radiative processes involved, and the knowledge gaps which need to be filled in order to improve predictions of plant transpiration. Additionally, although there is a high degree of certainty that rising CO 2 will impact plant transpiration, the exact nature of this impact remains unclear due to complex interactions between CO 2 and climate, and key aspects of plant morphology and physiology. The interplay between these factors has substantial consequences not only for future climate and global vegetation, but also for water availability needed for sustaining the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Future changes in global plant transpiration in response to enhanced CO 2 are expected to be driven by water availability, atmospheric evaporative demand, plant physiological processes, emergent plant disturbances related to increasing temperatures, and the modification of plant physiology and coverage. Considering the universal sensitivity of natural and agricultural systems to terrestrial water availability we argue that reliable future projections of transpiration is an issue of the highest priority, which can only be achieved by integrating monitoring and modeling efforts to improve the representation of CO 2 effects on plant transpiration in the next generation of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliable vision-guided grasping

Automated assembly of truss structures in space requires vision-guided servoing for grasping a strut when its position and orientation are uncertain. This paper presents a methodology for efficient and robust vision-guided robot grasping alignment. The vision-guided grasping problem is related to vision-guided 'docking' problems. It differs from other hand-in-eye visual servoing problems, such as tracking, in that the distance from the target is a relevant servo parameter. The methodology described in this paper is hierarchy of levels in which the vision/robot interface is decreasingly 'intelligent,' and increasingly fast. Speed is achieved primarily by information reduction. This reduction exploits the use of region-of-interest windows in the image plane and feature motion prediction. These reductions invariably require stringent assumptions about the image. Therefore, at a higher level, these assumptions are verified using slower, more reliable methods. This hierarchy provides for robust error recovery in that when a lower-level routine fails, the next-higher routine will be called and so on. A working system is described which visually aligns a robot to grasp a cylindrical strut. The system uses a single camera mounted on the end effector of a robot and requires only crude calibration parameters. The grasping procedure is fast and reliable, with a multi-level error recovery system.

Nicewarner, Keith E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Plains and channels in the Lunae Planum-Chryse Planitia region of Mars

The Lunae Planum-Chryse Planitia region provides the opportunity to study a sequence of channeling events and to determine their temporal and genetic relationships to plains units in the northern hemisphere of Mars. Two sets of small channels and four major channel systems can be divided into four periods of channeling by superposition and contact relationships to the plains. All of the channels are considered to have formed by water erosion. The first two channeling events occurred early in the history of this area and formed small, narrow channels within the old rugged terrain. These channel events were separated by deposition of a mantle unit. The small channels probably formed by runoff of surface water or by a sapping process. These channels preceded the emplacement of vast volcanic plains in both Lunae Planum and Chryse Planitia. Channels postdating the plains are Vedra, Maumee, Bahram, and Maja valles; the first three of these deposited a sedimentary unit on the western slope of Chryse Planitia that was eroded by Maja Vallis. These large-scale channels were probably formed predominantly by catastrophic floods and may represent two periods of water release from Juventae Chasma. The origin of Bahram Vallis remains uncertain.

Theilig, E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Reliable vision-guided grasping

Automated assembly of truss structures in space requires vision-guided servoing for grasping a strut when its position and orientation are uncertain. This paper presents a methodology for efficient and robust vision-guided robot grasping alignment. The vision-guided grasping problem is related to vision-guided 'docking' problems. It differs from other hand-in-eye visual servoing problems such as tracking in that the distance from the target is a relevant servo parameter. The methodology described in this paper is a hierarchy of levels in which the vision/robot interface is decreasingly 'intelligent', and increasingly fast. Speed is achieved primarily by information reduction. This reduction exploits the use of region-of-interest windows in the image plane and feature motion prediction. These reductions invariably require stringent assumptions about the image. Therefore, at a higher level, these assumptions are verified using slower, more reliable methods. This hierarchy provides for robust error recovery in that when a lower-level routine fails, the next-higher routine will be called and so on. A working system is described which visually aligns a robot to grasp a cylindrical strut. The system uses a single camera mounted on the end effector of a robot and requires only crude calibration parameters. The grasping procedure is fast and reliable, with a multi-level error recovery system.

Nicewarner, Keith E.↗
NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗
NASA NTRS2011

JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

thermal blanket performance↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear burn control in ITER using adaptive allocation of actuators with uncertain dynamics

Abstract ITER will be the first tokamak to sustain a fusion-producing, or burning, plasma. If the plasma temperature were to inadvertently rise in this burning regime, the positive correlation between temperature and the fusion reaction rate would establish a destabilizing positive feedback loop. Careful regulation of the plasma’s temperature and density, or burn control, is required to prevent these potentially reactor-damaging thermal excursions, neutralize disturbances and improve performance. In this work, a Lyapunov-based burn controller is designed using a full zero-dimensional nonlinear model. An adaptive estimator manages destabilizing uncertainties in the plasma confinement properties and the particle recycling conditions (caused by plasma–wall interactions). The controller regulates the plasma density with requests for deuterium and tritium particle injections. In ITER-like plasmas, the fusion-born alpha particles will primarily heat the plasma electrons, resulting in different electron and ion temperatures in the core. By considering separate response models for the electron and ion energies, the proposed controller can independently regulate the electron and ion temperatures by requesting that different amounts of auxiliary power be delivered to the electrons and ions. These two commands for a specific control effort (electron and ion heating) are sent to an actuator allocation module that optimally maps them to the heating actuators available to ITER: an electron cyclotron heating system (20 MW), an ion cyclotron heating system (20 MW), and two neutral beam injectors (16.5 MW each). Two different actuator allocators are presented in this work. The first actuator allocator finds the optimal mapping by solving a convex quadratic program that includes actuator saturation and rate limits. It is nonadaptive and assumes that the mapping between the commanded control efforts and the allocated actuators (i.e. the effector model) contains no uncertainties. The second actuator allocation module has an adaptive estimator to handle uncertainties in the effector model. This uncertainty includes actuator efficiencies, the fractions of neutral beam heating that are deposited into the plasma electrons and ions, and the tritium concentration of the fueling pellets. Furthermore, the adaptive allocator considers actuator dynamics (actuation lag) that contain uncertainty. This adaptive allocation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the aforementioned nonadaptive allocator because it is computed using dynamic update laws so that finding the solution to a static optimization problem is not required at every time step. A simulation study assesses the performance of the proposed adaptive burn controller augmented with each of the actuator allocation modules.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Physical Properties of Everglades Peat Soils Induced by Increased Salinity at the Laboratory Scale: Implications for Changes in Biogenic Gas Dynamics

Abstract Saltwater intrusion due to sea level rise is a major concern for the Florida Everglades because it may induce shifts in ecosystem productivity and physical soil properties. However, the effects of saline water intrusion into the current carbon gas dynamics of the Everglades (particularly in terms of biogenic gas production and emissions, i.e., CH 4 and CO 2 ) are still uncertain. In this work, we present a laboratory‐based study to simulate how sea level rise may alter the physical properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity) of peat soils from the Everglades and consequently affect the accumulation and release of biogenic gases within the peat matrix. Peat monoliths collected from the Everglades were subjected to progressive increases in salinity from a NaCl solution, and changes to the biogenic gas dynamics regime were simultaneously monitored using a combination of time‐lapse ground‐penetrating radar measurements, manometers, time‐lapse photography, and gas traps. Physical changes to the peat matrix at each salinity interval were assessed using constant head permeameter tests. Consistent with previous research, results show that a progressive increase in salinity (from fresh to saltwater) results in (1) a progressive increase in hydraulic conductivity and (2) a progressive decrease in gas content within the peat matrix (i.e., production) and gas releases. This work has implications for better understanding the potential effects of saltwater intrusion into freshwater peatland systems in the Everglades, particularly in terms of carbon gas dynamics.

Sirianni, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic dispatch for electricity merchant with energy storage and wind plant: State of charge based decision making considering market impact and uncertainties

Here this paper investigates how the market impact of electricity merchants and uncertainty of wind generation affect their co-optimized scheduling policy, specifically for merchants who have both energy storage and wind plants. In the existing literature, merchants' trading actions are usually assumed not to affect market prices; however, a large-scale energy storage merchant's actions can affect market prices. To this end, we approximate the electricity price by a linear function of the quantity of power traded by the merchant in the reward function to achieve decision-making incorporating the market impact. This paper utilizes the dynamic programming approach to analyze merchants' optimal multi-period decision-making incorporating market impact, uncertain wind generation, and energy storage constraints. First, our results demonstrate that for a merchant with co-located energy storage facilities and wind power plants, the energy storage's feasible state of charge (SOC) range can be segmented into four possible sub-ranges by three analytically developed SOC reference points. The unique optimal trading decision can be achieved by comparing the current energy inventory and the SOC references of the next period. Second, our results show that market impact and uncertainties substantially change the optimal storage scheduling policy by impacting the values of the reference points. To mitigate the negative effect of the merchant's market impact on buying and selling actions, the merchant may reduce the amount of generating or pumping electricity each period to maximize profit. Moreover, we identify and investigate the trade-off between market price and transaction quantity. Our findings provide co-optimized scheduling guidance for electricity merchants with co-located energy storage and renewable power plants systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Liquid–Liquid Phase Separation in Supermicrometer and Submicrometer Aerosol Particles

The interactions of aerosol particles with light and clouds are among the most uncertain aspects of anthropogenic climate forcings. The effects of aerosol particles on climate depend on their optical properties, heterogeneous chemistry, water uptake behavior, and ice nucleation activity. These properties in turn depend on aerosol physics and chemistry including composition, size, shape, internal structure (morphology), and phase state. The greatest numbers of particles are found at small, submicrometer sizes, and the properties of aerosol particles can differ on the nanoscale compared with measurements of bulk materials. As a result, our focus has been on characterizing the phase transitions of aerosol particles in both supermicrometer and submicrometer particles. The phase transition of particular interest for us has been liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), which occurs when components of a solution phase separate due to a difference in solubilities. For example, organic compounds can have limited solubility in salt solutions especially as the water content decreases, increasing the concentration of the salt solution, and causing phase separation between organic-rich and inorganic-rich phases. To characterize the systems of interest, we primarily use optical microscopy for supermicrometer particles and cryogenic-transmission microscopy for submicrometer particles. This Account details our main results to date for the phase transitions of supermicrometer particles and the morphology of submicrometer aerosol. Herein, we have found that the relative humidity (RH) at which LLPS occurs (separation RH; SRH) is highly sensitive to the composition of the particles. For supermicrometer particles, SRH decreases as the pH is lowered to atmospherically relevant values. SRH also decreases when non-phase-separating organic compounds are added to the particles. For submicrometer particles, a size dependence of morphology is observed in systems that undergo LLPS in supermicrometer particles. In the limit of slow drying rates, particles <30 nm are homogeneous and larger particles are phase-separated. This size dependence of aerosol morphology arises because small particles cannot overcome the activation barrier needed to form a new phase when phase separation occurs by a nucleation and growth mechanism. Additionally, the inhibition of LLPS in small particles is observed for mixtures of ammonium sulfate with single organic compounds as well as complex organics like α-pinene secondary organic matter. The morphology of particles affects activation diameters for the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. These results more generally have implications for aerosol properties that affect the climate system. In addition, LLPS is also widely studied in materials and biological chemistry, and our results could potentially translate to implications for these fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty

This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake

Terrestrial photosynthesis, or gross primary production (GPP), is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain. The global annual mean GPP is historically thought to be around 120 PgC yr −1 , which is about 30–50 PgC yr −1 lower than GPP inferred from the oxygen-18 ( 18 O) isotope and soil respiration. This disparity is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, in this study, we infer GPP from carbonyl sulfide, an innovative tracer for CO 2 diffusion from ambient air to leaf chloroplasts through stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicitly representing mesophyll diffusion is important for accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. From the estimate of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer a global contemporary GPP of 157 (±8.5) PgC yr −1 , which is consistent with estimates from 18 O (150–175 PgC yr −1 ) and soil respiration ($149^{+29}_{-23}$) PgC yr −1 ), but with an improved confidence level. Our global GPP is higher than satellite optical observation-driven estimates (120–140 PgC yr –1 ) that are used for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference predominantly occurs in the pan-tropical rainforests and is corroborated by ground measurements, suggesting a more productive tropics than satellite-based GPP products indicated. As GPP is a primary determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories, our findings lay a physiological foundation on which the understanding and prediction of carbon–climate feedbacks can be advanced.

Lai, Jiameng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗