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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transition Zones at the Changing Coastal Terrestrial‐Aquatic Interface

Coastal soils are a significant but highly uncertain component of global biogeochemical cycles. These systems experience spatial and temporal variability in biogeochemical processes, driven by marsh‐to‐upland gradients and hydrological fluctuations. These fluctuations make it difficult to understand and predict biogeochemical processes in these highly dynamic systems. We studied coastal soil biogeochemistry and its variability (a) at regional scales and (b) across transects from upland forest to marsh, in two contrasting regions—Lake Erie, a freshwater lacustrine system, and Chesapeake Bay, a saltwater estuarine system. Salinity‐related analytes were a key source of variability in soil biogeochemistry, not just in the saltwater system, but surprisingly, also in the freshwater system. We had hypothesized linear trends in biogeochemical parameters along the TAI—however, contrary to expectations, transition soils were not consistently intermediate between upland and marsh endmembers; the non‐monotonic trends of C, P, Fe along our transects suggest that these do not behave as expected and may be difficult to model and predict—thus these are key analytes to study in our regions. Rapidly changing soil factors across coastal gradients (e.g., Ca, K, CEC, and TS) may act as precursors to ecosystem shifts. Our comprehensive soil characterization represents a snapshot of a single timepoint of surface soils and provides essential data for mechanistic modeling of ecosystem dynamics across coastal transects.

Patel, Kaizad F. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nutrients cause consolidation of soil carbon flux to small proportion of bacterial community

Nutrient amendment diminished bacterial functional diversity, consolidating carbon flow through fewer bacterial taxa. Here, we show strong differences in the bacterial taxa responsible for respiration from four ecosystems, indicating the potential for taxon-specific control over soil carbon cycling. Trends in functional diversity, defined as the richness of bacteria contributing to carbon flux and their equitability of carbon use, paralleled trends in taxonomic diversity although functional diversity was lower overall. Among genera common to all ecosystems, Bradyrhizobium, the Acidobacteria genus RB41, and Streptomyces together composed 45–57% of carbon flow through bacterial productivity and respiration. Bacteria that utilized the most carbon amendment (glucose) were also those that utilized the most native soil carbon, suggesting that the behavior of key soil taxa may influence carbon balance. Mapping carbon flow through different microbial taxa as demonstrated here is crucial in developing taxon-sensitive soil carbon models that may reduce the uncertainty in climate change projections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes

The evaporative loss from global lakes (natural and artificial) is a critical component of the terrestrial water and energy balance. However, the evaporation volume of these water bodies—from the spatial distribution to the long-term trend—is as of yet unknown. Here, using satellite observations and modeling tools, we quantified the evaporation volume from 1.42 million global lakes from 1985 to 2018. We find that the long-term average lake evaporation is 1500 ± 150 km 3 year -1 and it has increased at a rate of 3.12 km 3 year -1 . The trend attributions include an increasing evaporation rate (58%), decreasing lake ice coverage (23%), and increasing lake surface area (19%). While only accounting for 5% of the global lake storage capacity, artificial lakes (i.e., reservoirs) contribute 16% to the evaporation volume. Our results underline the importance of using evaporation volume, rather than evaporation rate, as the primary index for assessing climatic impacts on lake systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Custom tuning of Rieske oxygenase reactivity

Rieske oxygenases use a Rieske-type [2Fe-2S] cluster and a mononuclear iron center to initiate a range of chemical transformations. However, few details exist regarding how this catalytic scaffold can be predictively tuned to catalyze divergent reactions. Therefore, in this work, using a combination of structural analyses, as well as substrate and rational protein-based engineering campaigns, we elucidate the architectural trends that govern catalytic outcome in the Rieske monooxygenase TsaM. We identify structural features that permit a substrate to be functionalized by TsaM and pinpoint active-site residues that can be targeted to manipulate reactivity. Exploiting these findings allowed for custom tuning of TsaM reactivity: substrates are identified that support divergent TsaM-catalyzed reactions and variants are created that exclusively catalyze dioxygenation or sequential monooxygenation chemistry. Importantly, we further leverage these trends to tune the reactivity of additional monooxygenase and dioxygenase enzymes, and thereby provide strategies to custom tune Rieske oxygenase reaction outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-monotonic size-dependent exciton radiative lifetime in CsPbBr3 nanocrystals

Lead halide perovskite nanocrystals have attracted intense interest due to their desirable optical properties, diverse structural features, and size-tunable excitonic structure. Here we show that, under ambient conditions, a non-monotonic trend in radiative lifetime emerges from the interplay of size, lattice symmetry and excitonic structure. Small nanocrystals exhibit long radiative lifetimes due to weakly emissive excitons, but the oscillator strength increases and shortens the lifetime for nanocrystals approaching intermediate confinement. For larger nanocrystals with higher exciton density of states (DOS), the radiative lifetime is lengthened due to depopulation of the bright exciton manifold into thermally accessible dim states. A size-dependent structural symmetry lowering transition from cubic to orthorhombic is observed by XRD and MD simulations, and the non-monotonic radiative lifetime trend emerges only in lower symmetry structures with an increased dim exciton DOS. These findings shed light on the impact of nanocrystal size and structure on radiative lifetime and pave the way for tailored optical materials in various optical applications.

optical materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity of many-body interactions in transition metals via machine-learned force fields from the TM23 data set

Abstract This work examines challenges associated with the accuracy of machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) for bulk solid and liquid phases ofd-block elements. In exhaustive detail, we contrast the performance of force, energy, and stress predictions across the transition metals for two leading MLFF models: a kernel-based atomic cluster expansion method implemented using sparse Gaussian processes (FLARE), and an equivariant message-passing neural network (NequIP). Early transition metals present higher relative errors and are more difficult to learn relative to late platinum- and coinage-group elements, and this trend persists across model architectures. Trends in complexity of interatomic interactions for different metals are revealed via comparison of the performance of representations with different many-body order and angular resolution. Using arguments based on perturbation theory on the occupied and unoccupieddstates near the Fermi level, we determine that the large, sharpddensity of states both above and below the Fermi level in early transition metals leads to a more complex, harder-to-learn potential energy surface for these metals. Increasing the fictitious electronic temperature (smearing) modifies the angular sensitivity of forces and makes the early transition metal forces easier to learn. This work illustrates challenges in capturing intricate properties of metallic bonding with current leading MLFFs and provides a reference data set for transition metals, aimed at benchmarking the accuracy and improving the development of emerging machine-learned approximations.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked to climate feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled and analysed two decades (2002–2021) of Boreal–Arctic wetland CH 4 emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation of eddy covariance and chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend of CH 4 emissions (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority of emission increases occurred in early summer (June and July) and were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) and ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, a 2 °C temperature anomaly in 2016 led to the highest recorded annual CH 4 emissions (22.3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) over this region, driven primarily by high emissions over Western Siberian lowlands. However, current-generation models from the Global Carbon Project failed to capture the emission magnitude and trend, and may bias the estimates in future wetland CH 4 emission driven by amplified Boreal–Arctic warming and greening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C air –1 , –0.033 m °C air –1 and –9.7 d °C air –1 , respectively). Furthermore, these impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing machine learning for heterogeneous catalysis with experimental and computational data

Machine learning techniques have emerged as a useful tool for identifying complex patterns and correlations in large datasets, such as associating catalyst performance to its physicochemical properties. In the heterogeneous catalysis communities, machine learning models have mostly been developed using high-throughput quantum chemistry calculations, with only a few case studies resulting in experimentally validated catalyst improvements. This limited success may be due to the use of simplified catalyst structures in computational studies and the lack of comprehensive experimental datasets. In this Review, we bring together studies integrating high-throughput approaches and machine learning for the advancement of solid heterogeneous catalysis, leveraging both experimental and computational data. We systematically analyze trends in the field, based on the descriptors used as model input and output; the materials, devices, or reactions investigated; the dataset size; and the overall achievements. Furthermore, for models reporting unitless R 2 values, we compare the performances based on these mentioned trends.

Computational chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of hybrid Innegra-carbon fiber composites

Abstract In this work material synergy with high stiffness carbon fiber with ductile high strength polypropylene fiber (Innegra S), (referred to as Innegra, herein) have been evaluated in a range of laminate designs. Both woven and discontinuous carbon fiber have been considered. The discontinuous fibers are based on three-dimensional deposition (3DEP) (referred to as 3DEP, herein) carbon fiber preform process. Eleven (11) variants of Innegra-carbon fiber hybrid laminates were investigated for tensile, flexure, compression, in-plane shear and low velocity impact response. The effect of position of Innegra within the laminate was studied and found to influence strength and stiffness properties. In terms of overall trends, Innegra provides upward of 18% improvement in strain (ductility) to the composite and eliminates brittle fracture of carbon fiber. The moduli trends follow the proportionality of Innegra fiber to carbon fiber plies. However, the strength is controlled by the interface between Innegra and carbon fiber. The primary failure mode in tension and compression is via onset of debonding between Innegra and carbon fiber. The 3DEP carbon fiber constituents provided highest values of in-plane shear indicating that three-dimensional (3D) network of carbon fiber provides higher shear resistance. The Innegra intensive variants exhibited superior energy absorption under low velocity impact, at energy levels 15–60 J. This work provides insight for designers to incorporate Innegra and carbon fiber hybrids in composite structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pressure-tuned plethora of ferroelectric phases in CuInP 2 S 6

Layered chalcogenides like CuInP 2 S 6 are room temperature ferroelectrics. Modest compression even increases the electric polarization, raising questions about the origin of this unusual trend and other properties under pressure. In this work, we combine synchrotron-based infrared and Raman scattering spectroscopies, x-ray diffraction, and resistivity measurements with first-principles calculations of the lattice dynamics and energy landscape to unravel the influence of pressure on symmetry, polarization, and metallicity. We uncover a remarkable series of phase transitions across a series of polar space groups: monoclinic Cc → trigonal P31c (prismatic sulfur) → P31c (octahedral sulfur). True metallicity develops above 63 GPa, significantly higher than in related MPS 3 materials (M = Mn, Co, Fe, Ni), offering a picture of competing states of matter that is different than previously supposed. Detailed examination of pressure trends within the Cc phase also reveals phonon lifetime changes and streaking of satellite x-ray peaks that correlate with the maximum polarization. We discuss these tendencies in terms of Cu + ion migration, phase formation, and the overall energy landscape. Our findings place the high pressure behavior of CuInP 2 S 6 on a firm foundation and pave the way for the development of structure-property relations in this family of complex chalcogenides.

ferroelectric phases↗