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DOE OSTI2026

Cooling Matters: Benchmarking Large Language Models and Vision-Language Models on Liquid-Cooled Versus Air-Cooled H100 GPU Systems

The unprecedented growth in artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, recently dominated by large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs), has intensified power and cooling demands in data centers. This study benchmarks LLMs and VLMs on two HGX nodes, each with 8× NVIDIA H100 graphics processing units (GPUs), using liquid and air cooling. Leveraging GPU Burn, Weights & Biases, and IPMItool, we collect detailed thermal, power, and computation data. Results show that the liquid-cooled systems maintain GPU temperatures between 41-50$^\circ$C, while the air-cooled counterparts fluctuate between 54-72$^\circ$C under load. This thermal stability of liquid-cooled systems yields 17% higher performance (54 TFLOPs/ GPU vs. 46 TFLOPs/GPU), performance-per-watt, reduced energy overhead, and greater system efficiency than the air-cooled counterparts. These findings underscore the energy and sustainability benefits of liquid cooling, offering a compelling path forward for hyperscale data centers seeking to optimize AI infrastructure. https://github.com/iscaas/Cooling-Matters.

Latif, Imran↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Hydrogen-Powered Locomotive Refueling

Hydrogen powered locomotives are being explored to reduce emissions in rail applications. The risks of operations like refueling should be understood to ensure safe environments for workers and members of the public. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using HyRAM+ to identify major drivers of risk and compare effects of system parameters on individual risk. The consequences of jet fires from full-bore leaks dominated the risk, compared to explosions or smaller leaks. Pipe size, leak detection capability, and leak frequencies of system components greatly affected risk while overpressure modeling parameters and ambient conditions had little effect. The effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) materials on individual risk were quantified by reducing the individual’s exposure time or absorbed thermal dose. PPE only showed a risk reduction in low-risk cases. This study highlighted target areas for risk mitigation, including leak detection equipment and component maintenance, and indicated that the minimal effects of other parameters on risk may not justify prescriptive requirements for refueling operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

C3PU:Real-Time Predictive Charge Control Software for Battery Management Systems (Code for Charge Control and Predictive Unit) [SWR-21-48]

C3PU sets up a model predictive control formulation for the optimal charging control of battery packs and can be deployed for real-time operation on an embedded microprocessor. C3PU uses electrochemical and thermal models of battery packs to predict the charging trajectories of the battery pack over a time horizon under different operating conditions. It then selects the optimal charging trajectory such that a pre-defined objective is minimized, which in the present state of the code is to minimize the charging duration of the battery pack. The optimal charging trajectory is obtained by solving an underlying mathematical problem. However, C3PU is flexible to incorporate other charging objectives. The underlying battery models can be swapped as well, as long as they follow certain mathematical properties. Mathematically, optimal control problems (in this case, optimally controlling the charging current of the battery pack) are computationally expensive. C3PU implements advanced numerical techniques, namely pseudo-spectral optimization, to reduce the computational burden of the underlying problem to solve. This allows for the problem to be solved in real-time in an embedded system. Once the optimal charging trajectory is computed over a time horizon, C3PU can package such data and send it out via appropriate communication protocols.

Mishra, Partha↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Electro-chemical Battery Model for Plug-and-Play Eco-system Library

Energy storage components are fundamental to the concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES). They serve to store surplus energy during low-demand periods for later release when other IES components (i.e., Secondary Energy Source, Balance of Plant, etc.) would otherwise have to operate flexibly. This provision for storage avoids high-amplitude power ramps in these components thereby limiting thermal and mechanical stresses to their internals and providing for extended service life. This report describes a dynamic model that has been developed for an electrochemical battery. The lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell was selected as representative technology. The battery model was developed in the Dymola simulation environment and meets the requirements of the ecosystem plug-and-play library. The model accurately describes the electric dynamic response of a Li-ion battery for an imposed charging/discharging power profile. The corresponding physical limitations related to over-power scenarios, and the impact of the residual state of charge are accounted for in the model. A literature review of the major degradation processes affecting Li-ion batteries was performed. Given the purposes of the CTD-IES project, the progressive fade of the installed capacity, the reduction of the round-trip efficiency, and the limits on the number of charging/discharging cycles are aspects that need to be taken into account in techno-economic analyses. The modeling of these degradation phenomena becomes crucial when predictions over long time horizons (capacity expansion) are made. For each one of these phenomena, a brief description is given, and some figures to be implemented in the HERON optimization algorithm are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-timescale operations of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems for reserve and thermal product provision

In this paper, an optimal operation strategy of a nuclear-renewable hybrid energy system (N-R HES), in conjunction with a district heating network, is developed within a comprehensive multi-timescale electricity market framework. The grid-connected N-R HES is simulated to explore the capabilities and benefits of N-R HES of providing energy products, different reserve products, and thermal products. An N-R HES optimization and control strategy is formulated to exploit the benefits from the hybrid energy system in terms of both energy and ancillary services. A case study is performed on the customized NREL-118 bus test system with high renewable penetrations, based on a multi-timescale (i.e., three-cycle) production cost model. Both day-ahead and real-time market clearing prices are determined from the market model simulation. In conclusion, the results show that the N-R HES can contribute to the reserve requirements and also meet the thermal load, thereby increasing the economic efficiency of N-R HES (with increased revenue ranging from 1.55% to 35.25% at certain cases) compared to the baseline case where reserve and thermal power exports are not optimized.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A new effective theory for stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics

Thermal fluctuations are a fundamental feature of dissipative systems that are essential for understanding physics near the expected critical point of QCD and in small systems. When such fluctuations are modeled naively in relativistic systems, strange features can appear such as negative self-correlation functions. We construct an effective theory for nonlinear stochastic relativistic hydrodynamics that ensure a well-posed mathematical formulation. Using Crooks fluctuation theorem, we derive a symmetry of the effective action that incorporates fluctuations through a suitable free energy functional. For divergence type theories, the action can then be fully specified using a single vector generating current. The equations of motion obtained using this procedure are guaranteed to be flux conservative and symmetric hyperbolic when the dynamics is causal. This ensures that these equations are well-posed (for suitable initial data) and are in a form that can easily be simulated, including with Metropolis techniques.

Mullins, Nicki [University of Illinois at Urbana-C↗

DOE OSTI2022

System-Level Comparison of Sodium and Salt Systems in Support of the Gen3 Liquids Pathway

This paper presents the comparison of the annual performance and the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of two high- temperature solar power tower configurations using a 565MWth chloride salt receiver and a 540 MWth liquid sodium receiver. Each power tower consists of a sodium or salt receiver, a 175 m high concrete tower, and a two-tank chloride salt system for thermal energy storage (TES). The power plants were simulated using SolarTherm to estimate their energy per year, capacity factor, and LCOE. The simulation was verified against the System Advisor Model (SAM), showing that the LCOE calculation differences are within ±1.0%. Results showed that the sodium-receiver system yields 69.60 USD/MWh real LCOE, versus 78.55 USD/MWh for the chloride salt system. Results also showed that sodium wins here due to a smaller and more efficient receiver, enabled by higher flux limits and reduced field size, leading to less mirror reflective area and site improvement cost.

capacity factor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finite-temperature phase diagram of the Berenstein-Maldacena-Nastase matrix model on the lattice

We investigate the thermal phase structure of the Berenstein-Maldacena-Nastase matrix model using nonperturbative lattice Monte Carlo calculations. Our main analyses span 3 orders of magnitude in the coupling, involving systems with sizes up to 𝑁𝜏 =24 lattice sites and SU⁡(𝑁) gauge groups with 8 ≤𝑁 ≤16. In addition, we carry out extended checks of discretization artifacts for 𝑁𝜏 ≤128 and gauge group SU(4). We find results for the deconfinement temperature that interpolate between the perturbative prediction at weak coupling and the large-𝑁 dual supergravity calculation at strong coupling. While we confirm that the phase transition is first order for strong coupling, it appears to be continuous for weaker couplings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast Response of East Asian Precipitation in June 2020 to Local and Remote Aerosol Emission Reductions during COVID-19

Here, in this study, the fast response of East Asian summer precipitation to COVID-19–induced aerosol emission reductions is examined using the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2). The emission reductions decreased aerosol optical depth and cloud cover over northern China in June 2020. The troposphere became warmer, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly winds. The subtropical westerly jet accelerated and shifted southward, favoring low-level convergence, upward air motions, and subsequent condensational heating over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The feedback of condensational heating in return strengthened the convergence and ascent. The western North Pacific subtropical high was intensified, which further enhanced the moisture advection and convergence over the YRB. Both the enhanced moisture convergence and ascent increased precipitation over the YRB during June 2020. Furthermore, local and remote emission reductions show different impacts on convection and moisture transport over the YRB. The emission reductions over China caused stronger convective precipitation (1.15 vs 0.63 mm day −1 ) but weaker larger-scale precipitation (1.17 vs 2.24 mm day −1 ) than the emission reductions outside China. In addition to the emission reductions, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 2020 also play an important role in increasing precipitation over the YRB, contributing about 42.8%. The relative contribution of SST anomalies also increases under the COVID-19–induced emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pan-Arctic Permafrost Subsidence [Slides]

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, resulting in dramatic loss of ice across the Arctic system. Models project 7% to 90% of permafrost could be lost by the end of the century. Permafrost thaw is driving landscape degradation and infrastructure disruption through thermokarst and thermal erosion. Previous pan-arctic modeling shows potential for significant subsidence (Lee et al. 2014). CLM4.5 pan-Arctic simulations from PCNMIP were used to calculate change in projected ALT from 2010-2030.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Saving Estimation of ASHRAE Guideline 36 Supervisory Setpoint Reset Controls in a Commercial Large Office Building

Designing, commissioning, and retrofitting HVAC control systems for energy efficiency is crucial, but the use of ad-hoc control sequences by designers and contractors, based on scattered information, results in diverse and sub-optimal sequences. ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36) addresses the challenge by providing standardized, rule-based HVAC control sequences that prioritize energy efficiency. However, there is limited evaluation of their energy performance at the building level, with only a few studies primarily focused on HVAC airside systems in small-to-medium-sized commercial buildings. In this study, the energy performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences was assessed using a large office building emulator in Chicago. The emulator features a central plant system with multiple chillers and boilers as well as multiple variable air volume (VAV) systems with terminal reheat. To achieve a high-fidelity representation, we developed a Spawn-of-EnergyPlus-based model for the large office building, maintaining the DOE prototype large office building setup but substituting the HVAC system with its Modelica counterpart. This substitution ensures that the building thermal load, HVAC system's dynamics, and detailed control sequences are all accurately represented. The study involved evaluating and implementing control strategies outlined in ASHRAE Guideline 36-2021 to replace conventional controls. These strategies include the demand-based supply air temperature and duct static pressure setpoint reset and the request logic for demand-based reset of chilled/hot water supply temperature setpoints and pipe static pressure setpoints. Energy performance was evaluated under various load conditions, including cooling, heating, and transitional seasons, both for individual control strategies and in combination. The results indicate that the collective control strategies retrofit yield greater energy savings than the sum of individual strategies, highlighting the synergistic benefits of incorporating both airside and plant-side control retrofits. Additionally, energy savings of up to 41% in the heating season, 18% in the shoulder season, and 20 % in the cooling season were observed compared to baseline control while maintaining the thermal comfort level.

ASHRAE Guideline 36, Commercial buildings, Control↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor Automated Control System Test Bed Digital Architecture for Real-Time, Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This work describes progress made towards the development of a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test bed for non-nuclear testing of microreactor control schemes and failure modes. Non-nuclear testing is a crucial step in developing robust control algorithms for managing microreactor dynamics. The creation of an HIL simulation harnesses the realistic dynamics of physical analogue systems while additionally considering the challenges of variable communication delay. This collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory has resulted in a LabVIEW-based gRPC communication protocol which couples a TRANSFORM Modelica simulation of nuclear components to the ViBRANT physical hardware for realistic feedback and visual representation of control action in real time. A modular python client structure is developed to manage FMU-based Modelica simulation and real-time gRPC communication. HIL testing suggests that the modeled reactor with natural convection molten salt loop coolant configuration responds well to PID control of drum positioning for modulation of reactor core power, however, future efforts will be made to explore the added thermal inertial delay of system level control and downstream demand changes. Development of this platform with a generalized methodology provides a foundation for exploring a variety of reactor configurations and failure modes in rapid order to provide insight into the most effective avenues of study for further research and development.

McConnell, Jono [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000238984741)↗

DOE OSTI2024

UAS remote sensing (AltaX platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery, thermal infrared (TIR) imagery, and canopy reflectance (Level 0 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Airborne remote sensing data collected using Brookhaven National Laboratory’s (BNL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) AltaX platform on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA. This package includes raw (L0) data from 11 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Kougarok mile marker 64 (MM64) and Teller MM 27 sites in July, 2023. The AltaX is a multi-sensor UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) and thermal infrared (TIR) surface “skin” temperature imagery, as well as near-surface surface reflectance at 1 nm intervals in the visible to near-infrared spectral range from ~350 – 1000 nm. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors. Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json), binary (*.dat, *.ulg), tabular (*.csv), geospatial (*.kml. *kmz), image (*.jpg, *.png, *.tif) and pdf formats. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the L0 data and the file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

UAS remote sensing (AltaX platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery, thermal infrared (TIR) imagery, and canopy reflectance (Level 0 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

Airborne remote sensing data collected using Brookhaven National Laboratory’s (BNL) heavy-lift unoccupied aerial system (UAS) AltaX platform on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA. This package includes raw (L0) data from 10 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Kougarok mile marker 64 (MM64) and Teller MM 27 sites in July, 2022. The AltaX is a multi-sensor UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) and thermal infrared (TIR) surface “skin” temperature imagery, as well as near-surface surface reflectance at 1 nm intervals in the visible to near-infrared spectral range from ~350 – 1000 nm. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors. Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json), binary (*.dat, *.ulg), tabular (*.csv), geospatial (*.kml. *kmz), image (*.jpg, *.png, *.tif) and pdf formats. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the L0 data and the file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnon heat transport in a two-dimensional Mott insulator

Whether or not anomalies in the thermal conductivity in insulating cuprates can be attributed to antiferromagnetic order and magnons in a 2D Mott insulator remains an intriguing open question. To shed light on this issue, we investigate the thermal conductivity $\kappa$ and its relationship with the specific heat $c_v$ in the half-filled 2D single-band Hubbard model, using the numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo algorithm and maximum entropy analytic continuation. At low temperatures where the charge degrees of freedom are gapped-out and $c_v$ exhibits a clear magnon peak, we observe that thermal conductivity $\kappa$ also tends to form a peak at similar temperatures. Reducing temperature further produces a sharp upturn in $\kappa$, associated with an increasing mean-free path. Here we identify this as the high-temperature side of the anomalous peak in insulating cuprates, where the mean-free path eventually is cut-off by other scattering effects, including phonons, disorder, and physical size. Different scattering effects in our model are identified and analyzed in the thermal diffusivity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗