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At least 991 records · Page 55

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

Basin-Scale River Runoff Estimation from GRACE Gravity Satellites, Climate Models and In Situ Observations: a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

River runoff is estimated as a water budget residual using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage time series, ERA5 reanalysis data, and precipitation observations for January 2003 through December 2015 for the Obidos upstream drainage basin and for the entire Amazon basin. Estimated runoff based on the water budget agrees remarkably well with in situgauge observations at Obidos, especially at seasonal time scales, with nearly perfect phase agreementbut slightly larger seasonal amplitude. The discrepancy in the seasonal amplitude maybe attributed to underestimation of river gauge runoff during the wet season when water overflows the riverbanks. The ERA5 model appears to overestimate long-term mean evapotranspiration in the Amazon by ~2 cm/monthb ased on comparisons with precipitation and runoff observations. Using precipitation data based on satellites and gauge observations relative to gauge observations alone improved agreement between water budget runoff estimates and in situ runoff observations. Seasonal variations in ERA5 simulated runoff are about twice as large as those from in situobservations and show a large phase lag as well. Water budget based runoff for the entire Amazon (~ 7,200 km3averaged 29over the 13 yr period) is significantly larger than observed runoff (~5,700 km3) at notably larger than previous estimates for the entire Amazon. These differences may be partly related to submarine runoff from the Amazon basin that cannot be captured by surface gauges.

Jianli Chen↗

Hydrothermal alteration of impact melt sheets with implications for Mars

A model of the interaction of water with an impact melt sheet is constructed to explain the presence of hydrothermal alteration, fluid flow channels, and the redistribution of volatile elements in terrestrial melt sheets. A calculation of the amount of water vaporized beneath a melt sheet with a large fraction of melt results in a maximum total steam/melt sheet ratio of 23% by weight. The model also applies to Martian impact melt sheets, which have a total volume greater than a global layer 60 m thick. Hydrothermal circulation of steam in Martian melt sheets may have produced iron-rich alteration clays, ferric hydroxides, and near-surface accumulations of salts. The ability of vapor-dominated hydrothermal systems to concentrate sulfate relative to chloride is consistent with the high sulfate to chloride ratio found in the Martian soil by the Viking landers. A major fraction of the Martian soil may consist of the erosion products of hydrothermally altered impact melt sheets.

Newsom, H. E.↗

Solar-Storm/Lunar Atmosphere Model (SSLAM): An Overview of the Effort and Description of the Driving Storm Environment

On 29 April 1998, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was emitted from the Sun that had a significant impact on bodies located at 1 AU. The terrestrial magnetosphere did indeed become more electrically active during the storm passage but an obvious question is the effect of such a storm on an exposed rocky body like our Moon. The solar-storm/lunar atmosphere modeling effort (SSLAM) brings together surface interactions, exosphere, plasma, and surface charging models all run with a common driver - the solar storm and CME passage occurring from 1-4 May 1998. We present herein an expanded discussion on the solar driver during the 1-4 May 1998 period that included the passage of an intense coronal mass ejection (CME) that had> 10 times the solar wind density and had a compositional component of He++ that exceeded 20%. We also provide a very brief overview oflhe SSLAM system layout and overarching results. One primary result is that the CME driver plasma can greatly increase the exospheric content via sputtering, with total mass loss rates that approach 1 kg/s during the 2-day CME passage. By analogy, we suggest that CME-related sputtering increases might also be expected during a CME passage by a near-earth asteroid or at the Mars exobase, resulting in an enhanced loss of material.

Farrell, W. M.↗

A geochemical model for the formation of hydrothermal carbonates on Mars

It is often argued that substantially more carbon dioxide and water were degassed from the martian interior than can be found at present in the atmosphere, polar caps and regolith. Calculations have shown that atmospheric escape cannot account for all of the missing volatiles. Suggestions that carbon dioxide is stored as marine or lacustrine deposits, are challenged by Earth-based and spacecraft remote-sensing data. Moreover, recent modelling of the martian atmosphere suggests that rainfall or open bodies of water are in any case unlikely to have persisted for extended periods of time. Hydrothermal carbonates therefore provide a possible solution to this dilemma. Using an accessible terrestrial system (Iceland) as a guide to the underlying processes, and a host rock composition inferred from the least-altered martian meteorite, we present a geochemical model for the formation of carbonates in possible martian hydrothermal systems. Our results suggest that an extensive reservoir of carbonate minerals--equivalent to an atmospheric pressure of carbon dioxide of at least one bar--could have been sequestered beneath the surface by widespread hydrothermal activity in the martian past.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

THE DEFINITION AND INTERPRETATION OF TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENT DESIGN INPUTS FOR VEHICLE DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS

The description and interpretation of the terrestrial environment (0-90 km altitude) is an important driver of aerospace vehicle structural, control, and thermal system design. NASA is currently in the process of reviewing the meteorological information acquired over the past decade and producing an update to the 1993 Terrestrial Environment Guidelines for Aerospace Vehicle Design and Development handbook. This paper addresses the contents of this updated handbook, with special emphasis on new material being included in the areas of atmospheric thermodynamic models, wind dynamics, atmospheric composition, atmospheric electricity, cloud phenomena, atmospheric extremes, sea state, etc. In addition, the respective engineering design elements will be discussed relative to the importance and influence of terrestrial environment inputs that require consideration and interpretation for design applications. Specific lessons learned that have contributed to the advancements made in the acquisition, interpretation, application and awareness of terrestrial environment inputs for aerospace engineering applications are discussed.

Johnson, Dale L.↗

A mesospheric source of nitrous oxide

In the terrestrial atmosphere, nitrous oxide (N2O) has a major role in the chemistry of ozone. Current atmospheric models assume that N2O is produced only by fixation at the earth's surface and that there are no local sources in the stratosphere or mesosphere. It is pointed out here that a significant in situ N2O source does exist above 20 km due to the excitation of the metastable N2(A 3Sigma u +) state by resonance absorption of solar UV photons that penetrate deeply into the atmosphere through the 1,800-2,200 A O2-O3 window. This source significantly affects the NO altitude distribution in the mesosphere and, in the earth's prebiological atmosphere, made N2O an important stratospheric constituent.

Zipf, E. C.↗

Continental volume and freeboard through geological time

The consequences of approximately constant freeboard for continental growth are explored using a model that relates the volumes of isostatically compensated continents and oceans to the secular decline in terrestrial heat flow. It is found that a post-Archean increase in freeboard by 200 m requires continental growth of only 10 percent, while a decrease in freeboard by 200 m during this same period necessitates a crustal growth of 40 percent. Shrinkage of the continental crust since the end of the Archean can be ruled out. Changes of more than 10 percent in post-Archean crustal thickness are highly unlikely.

Schubert, G.↗

Calibration of NOAA-7 AVHRR, GOES-5 and GOES-6 VISSR/VAS solar channels

The NOAA-7, GOES-5 and GOES-6 Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer/Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VISSR/VAS) solar channels were calibrated. The White Sands Monument area in New Mexico, whose reflectance properties are well known, and space are used as calibration targets. The shortwave reflected terrestrial irradiance that is measured at satellite altitude is computed using a fairly accurate radiative transfer model which accounts for multiple scattering and bidirectional effects. The ground target reflectance and relevant characteristics of the overlying atmosphere are estimated from climatological data and observation at the nearest meteorological sites. The approach is believed to produce accuracies of 8 to 13% depending on the channel considered.

Frouin, R.↗

Calibration of NOAA-7 AVHRR, GOES-5, and GOES-6 VISSR/VAS solar channels

The NOAA-7, GOES-5 and GOES-6 Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer/Vertical Atmospheric Sounder (VISSR/VAS) solar channels were calibrated. The White Sands Monument area in New Mexico, whose reflectance properties are well known, and space are used as calibration targets. The shortwave reflected terrestrial irradiance that is measured at satellite altitude is computed using a fairly accurate radiative transfer model which accounts for multiple scattering and bidirectional effects. The ground target reflectance and relevant characteristics of the overlying atmosphere are estimated from climatological data and observation at the nearest meteorological sites. The approach is believed to produce accuracies of 8 to 13 percent depending on the channel considered.

Frouin, Robert↗

Baseline estimation from simultaneous satellite laser tracking

Simultaneous Range Differences (SRDs) to Lageos are obtained by dividing the observing stations into pairs with quasi-simultaneous observations. For each of those pairs the station with the least number of observations is identified, and at its observing epochs interpolated ranges for the alternate station are generated. The SRD observables are obtained by subtracting the actually observed laser range of the station having the least number of observations from the interpolated ranges of the alternate station. On the basis of these observables semidynamic single baseline solutions were performed. The aim of these solutions is to further develop and implement the SRD method in the real data environment, to assess its accuracy, its advantages and disadvantages as related to the range dynamic mode methods, when the baselines are the only parameters of interest. Baselines, using simultaneous laser range observations to Lageos, were also estimated through the purely geometric method. These baselines formed the standards the standards of comparison in the accuracy assessment of the SRD method when compared to that of the range dynamic mode methods. On the basis of this comparison it was concluded that for baselines of regional extent the SRD method is very effective, efficient, and at least as accurate as the range dynamic mode methods, and that on the basis of a simple orbital modeling and a limited orbit adjustment. The SRD method is insensitive to the inconsistencies affecting the terrestrial reference frame and simultaneous adjustment of the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) is not necessary.

Dedes, George C.↗

Chemical kinetics and modeling of planetary atmospheres

A unified overview is presented for chemical kinetics and chemical modeling in planetary atmospheres. The recent major advances in the understanding of the chemistry of the terrestrial atmosphere make the study of planets more interesting and relevant. A deeper understanding suggests that the important chemical cycles have a universal character that connects the different planets and ultimately link together the origin and evolution of the solar system. The completeness (or incompleteness) of the data base for chemical kinetics in planetary atmospheres will always be judged by comparison with that for the terrestrial atmosphere. In the latter case, the chemistry of H, O, N, and Cl species is well understood. S chemistry is poorly understood. In the atmospheres of Jovian planets and Titan, the C-H chemistry of simple species (containing 2 or less C atoms) is fairly well understood. The chemistry of higher hydrocarbons and the C-N, P-N chemistry is much less understood. In the atmosphere of Venus, the dominant chemistry is that of chlorine and sulfur, and very little is known about C1-S coupled chemistry. A new frontier for chemical kinetics both in the Earth and planetary atmospheres is the study of heterogeneous reactions. The formation of the ozone hole on Earth, the ubiquitous photochemical haze on Venus and in the Jovian planets and Titan all testify to the importance of heterogeneous reactions. It remains a challenge to connect the gas phase chemistry to the production of aerosols.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

The first geocenter estimation results using GPS measurements

The center of mass of the Earth is the natural and unambiguous origin of a geocentric satellite dynamical system. A geocentric reference frame assumes that the origin of its coordinate axes is at the geocenter, in which all relevant observations and results can be referred and in which geodynamic theories or models for the dynamic behavior of Earth can be formulated. In practice, however, a kinematically obtained terrestrial reference frame may assume an origin other than the geocenter. A fast and accurate method of determining origin offset from the geocenter is highly desirable. Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, because of their abundance and broad distribution, provide a powerful tool to obtain this origin offset in a short period of time. Two effective strategies have been devised. Data from the first Central and South America (Casa Uno) global GPS experiment were studied to demonstrate the ability of recovering the geocenter location with present-day GPS satellites and receivers.

Malla, R. P.↗

Solar and chemical reaction-induced heating in the terrestrial mesosphere and lower thermosphere

Airglow and chemical processes in the terrestrial mesosphere and lower thermosphere are reviewed, and initial parameterizations of the processes applicable to multidimensional models are presented. The basic processes by which absorbed solar energy participates in middle atmosphere energetics for absorption events in which photolysis occurs are illustrated. An approach that permits the heating processes to be incorporated in numerical models is presented.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗

Current Activities and Capabilities of the Terrestrial Environment Group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) designated Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) the center of excellence for space transportation. The Aerospace Environments and Effects (AEE) team of the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch (EL23) in the Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory at MSFC, supports the center of excellence designation by providing near-Earth space, deep space, planetary, and terrestrial environments expertise to projects as required. The Terrestrial Environment (TE) group within the AEE team maintains an extensive TE data base. Statistics and models derived from this data are applied to the design and development of new aerospace vehicles, as well as performance enhancement of operational vehicles such as the Space Shuttle. The TE is defined as the Earth's atmospheric environment extending from the surface to orbital insertion altitudes (approximately 90 km).

Roberts, Barry C.↗

An Assessment of Molten Metal Detachment Hazards During Electron Beam Welding in Space

The safety issue has been raised with regards to potential molten metal detachments from the weld pool and cold filler wire during electron beam welding in space. This investigation was undertaken to evaluate if molten metal could detach and come in contact with astronauts and burn through the fabric of the astronauts' Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) during electron beam welding in space. Molten metal detachments from either the weld/cut substrate or weld wire could present harm to a astronaut if the detachment was to burn through the fabric of the EMU. Theoretical models were developed to predict the possibility and size of the molten metal detachment hazards during the electron beam welding exercises at Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The primary molten metal detachment concerns were those cases of molten metal separation from the metal surface due to metal cutting, weld pool splashing, entrainment and release of molten metal due to filler wire snap-out from the weld puddle, and molten metal accumulation and release from the end of the weld wire. Some possible ways of obtaining molten metal drop detachments would include an impulse force, or bump, to the weld sample, cut surface, or filler wire. Theoretical models were developed for these detachment concerns from principles of impact and kinetic energies, surface tension, drop geometry, surface energies, and particle dynamics. The surface tension represents the force opposing the liquid metal drop from detaching whereas the weight of the liquid metal droplet represents a force that is tending to detach the molten metal drop. Theoretical calculations have indicated that only a small amount of energy is required to detach a liquid metal drop; however, much of the energy of an impact is absorbed in the sample or weld plate before it reaches the metal drop on the cut edge or surface. The tendency for detachment is directly proportional to the weld pool radius and metal density and inversely proportional to the surface tension of the liquid metal. For a detachment the initial kinetic energy of the weld pool with respect to the plate has to exceed the energy to form the extra surface required for the detachment of the pool. The difficulty is in transferring the energy from the point of impact through the plate and sample to the cut edge. It is likely that not all of the kinetic energy is available for detaching the pool; some may be sequestered in weld pool oscillations. The coefficient of restitution for the collision will be lower than one if irreversible deformation, for example plastic flow deformation, takes place during the collision. Thus determining the amount of energy from an impact that actually reaches the molten metal droplet is critical. Various molten metal detachment scenarios were tested experimentally in an enclosed vacuum chamber using the Ukrainian Universal Hand Tool, an electron beam welder designed for space welding. The experimental testing was performed in a 4 ft. X 4 ft. vacuum chamber at Marshall Space Flight Center, evacuated to vacuum levels of at least 50 microTorr, and also some welding garment material was utilized to observe the effect of the molten metal detachments on the material. A "carillon" apparatus consisting of four pendulum hammer strikers, each weighing approximately 3.65 lbs, raised to predetermined specific heights was used to apply an impact force to the weld sample/plate during electron beam welding and cutting exercises. The strikers were released by switching on an electric motor to rotate a pin holding wires retaining the strikers at desired heights. The specimens were suspended so as to be free to respond to the blows with a sudden velocity increment. The specimens were mounted on a hinged plate for minimizing effective mass with the option to fasten it down so as to raise its effective mass closer to that anticipated for an actual space welding scenario. Measurements were made of the impact energy and the horizontal fling distances of the detached metal drops. It was not particularly easy to generate the detachments for this experiment. This document presents the details of the theoretical modeling effort and a summary of the experimental effort to measure molten metal drop detachments from terrestrial electron beam welding in the enclosed vacuum chamber. The results of the experimental effort have shown that molten metal detachments can occur from the sample/weld plate only if a sufficiently large impact force is applied to the weld plate. A "weld pool detachment parameter" was determined to indicate whether detachment would occur. Detachment can be either full or partial (dripping), Partial detachment means that the weld pool detached from one side of the liquid-solid boundary so as to leave a hole at the puddle site but remained attached over part of the liquid-solid boundary and dripped down the plate with no fully detached material detected. Full detachment, however, does not necessarily mean that the whole pool fully detached; in some cases only a smaller portion of the pool detached, the remainder dripping down the plate. The weld pool detachment parameter according to theory and according to the empirical data allows a determination of whether full detachments might occur. Theoretical calculations indicated titanium alloy would be the most difficult from which to detach molten metal droplets followed by stainless steel and then by aluminum. The experimental results were for the most part consistent with the theoretical analysis and predictions. The above theory is applicable to other situations as desired for assessing the potential for molten metal detachments.

Fragomeni, James M.↗

Organic geochemistry of sediments from the continental margin off southern New England, U.S.A.--Part I. Amino acids, carbohydrates and lignin

Total organic carbon (TOC), lignin, amino acids, sugars and amino sugars were measured in recent sediments for the continental margin off southern New England. The various organic carbon fractions decreased in concentration with increasing distance from shore. The fraction of the TOC that was accounted for by these major components also decreased with increasing distance from shore. The concentration of lignin indicated that only about 3-5% of the organic carbon in the nearshore sediment was of terrestrial origin. The various fractions were highly correlated, which was consistent with a simple linear mixing model of shelf organic matter with material form the slope and rise and indicated a significant transport of sediment from the continental shelf to the continental slope and rise.

Non-NASA Center↗

Extra Terrestrial Lava Flows

Volcanism has been one of the major processes shaping the surfaces of the terrestrial planets. Lava flows have been identified on the Moon, Mars, Venus, and on Juptier's moon Io. The study of extra-terrestrial lavas has largely relied on the interpretation of remotely acquired imaging, topographic and spectroscopic data. Models relating the final flow morpohology to eruption characteristics and magma chemistry have been important tools in the interpretation of these data.

lava volcanism↗