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Advanced marine information delivery

The paper examines the information delivery challenges of the follow-on programs to Seasat-1 as they may progress through the next decade. These challenges include coping with the vast amounts of data to be transferred, fulfilling the temporal requirements on data delivery, and the tradeoffs and developments needed to accomplish the various levels of processing required to convert sensor output into useful information. A need for critical development is clearly identifiable in the areas of (1) low cost ground terminals capable of image extraction and image correlation; (2) dynamic data assimilation to accommodate forecasters; (3) low resolution onboard correlators; and (4) low cost user advisory (display) terminals. The system planners for the Ocean Satellite advanced programs are using an end-to-end data systems approach in meeting these challenges.

Durstenfeld, R.↗

Characterization of terrestrial ecosystems for biogeochemical studies using remote sensing

Work is in progress to estimate leaf area index (LAI) of temperate closed canopy coniferous forests using transects in Oregon and California. This variable will be measured using remote sensing techniques including correlations of ground dimensional analysis with linear waveband combinations. LAI will be related to important biological variables such as net primary productivity, biomass, and biogenic gas emission fluxes. The spatial variation in LAI, when coupled with species composition, will be used in part to describe the spatial variation and temporal dynamics of biogeochemical cycling.

Peterson, D. L.↗

Examination of the relationship between outgoing infrared window and total longwave fluxes using satellite data

The relationship between narrowband and broadband thermal radiances is explored to determine the accuracy of outgoing longwave radiation derived from narrowband data. Infrared window (10.2-12.2 microns) data from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite are correlated with longwave (5.0-50.0 microns) data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. A simple quadratic fit between the narrowband and longwave fluxes results in standard errors of 4.4-5.3 percent for data that are matched closely in time and space. The use of matched regional flux data with temporal differences up to 59 minutes yields standard errors of 4.1-5.4 percent. About 30 percent of the error may be attributed to limb darkening and spatial and temporal differences in the matched fluxes. The relationship shows a statistically significant dependence on the relative humidity of the atmosphere above the radiating surface. Although this dependency accounts for only about 1 percent of the standard error, it reduces the monthly mean regional errors by more than 10 percent. Data taken over land produced a relationship slightly different from data taken over water. The differences appear to be primarily due to daytime heating of the land surface.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Detection and Monitoring of Stratigraphic Markers and Temperature Trends at the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Using Passive-Microwave Remote-Sensing Data

Satellite passive-microwave sensors provide a sensitive means of studying ice-sheet surface processes that assists ice-core interpretation and can extend local observations across regional scales. Analysis of special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature (TB) data supports ice-core research in two specific ways. First, the summer hoar complex layers used to date the Holocene portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core can be defined temporally and spatially by SSM/I 37-GHz vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized B ratio (V/H) trends. Second, comparison of automatic weather station temperatures to SSM/I 37-GHz V TB data shows that they are an effective proxy temperature record in this region. Also, the TB data can be correlated with proxy temperature trends from stable-isotope-ratio (delta O-18 and delta-D) profiles from snow pits and this allows the assignment of dates to specific snow depths.

Shuman, C. A.↗

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground tracks surrounding the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

McGillicuddy, Dennis J., Jr.↗

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/ Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (TIP) ground tracks surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

A Deep Search with HST for Late Time Supernova Signatures in the Hosts of XRF 011030 and XRF 020427

X-ray Flashes (XRFs), are, like Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) thought to signal the collapse of massive stars in distant galaxies. Many models posit that the isotropic equivalent energies of XRFs are lower than those for GRBs, such that they are visible hom a reduced range of distances when compared with GRBs. Here we present the results of two epoch Hubble Space Telescope imaging of two XRFs. These images taken approximately 45 and 200 days post bust reveal no evidence for an associated supernova in either case. Supernovae such as SN 1998bw would have been visible out to z approximately 1.5 in each case, while faint supernovae such as SN 2002ap would be visible to z approximately 1. At these distances the bursts would not fit the observed correlations between E(sub p) and E(sub iso) and would have required extremely luminous X-ray afterglows. We conclude that should these XRFs reside at low redshift, it is necessary either that their line of sight is heavily extinguished, or that XRFs, unlike GRBs do not have temporally coincident supernovae.

Patel, Sandeep↗

Improved method for temporally interpolating radiosonde profiles in the convective boundary layer

A significantly improved technique for temporally interpolating radiosonde (RS) profiles of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio in the planetary boundary layer during daytime is introduced. The key innovation of this technique is its operation on a height grid normalized with the planetary boundary layer height. This study utilized a three-month dataset of three-hourly soundings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility's Southern Great Plains site. The technique was evaluated for convective boundary layer cases, with the necessary boundary layer height data obtained from a ground-based infrared spectrometer. A total of 79 comparisons were conducted between reference soundings and interpolated profiles that did and did not employ height normalization. The results demonstrated a substantial improvement in the representation of interpolated profiles using the new technique, characterized by enhanced correlation, improved amplitude representation, and reduced bias for potential temperature, as well as improved correlation and reduced bias for water vapor mixing ratio.

convective boundary layer↗

An Instrument to Enable Identification of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Using Concurrent CO Measurements

We have developed an instrument concept that will enable the measurement of CO from the top of the atmosphere to the Earth's surface with very high sensitivity and at the high spatial and temporal resolutions required by the NRC Decadal Survey mission Active Sensing of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS). We are developing an innovative CO sensor that will enable the ASCENDS mission to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of global carbon. The NRC Decadal Survey places particular emphasis on retrieving CO information for the planetary boundary layer. Measurement made using both the 2.3 micron and 4.7 micron channels are needed to achieve the sensitivity required in the lower atmosphere where the degree of CO - CO2 correlation is indicative of anthropogenic sources of CO2. Measurements made using only the 4.7 micron channel cannot provide sufficient sensitivity to CO in the very lowest layers of the atmosphere. The fundamental method we use is Gas Filter Correlation Radiometry (GFCR), a highly successful technique used in other airborne and space-based missions for detecting trace species in the Earth's atmosphere. Our version of GFCR overcomes many of the limitations encountered by prior and existing instruments, allowing us to measure weak signals from small targets very quickly and with extremely high specificity by employing a new dual beam radiometer concept using a focal plane array. Our design will provide a means to make the desired CO measurements for the ASCENDS mission. A simple change in gas filter cell contents would allow the same hardware to measure CH4 with high precision under the nominal ASCENDS mission spatial and temporal constraints. All critical components in the sensor design are mature, many subsystems tested, and the system has been extensively modeled, bringing it to a present Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 3 (though some individual components are at TRLs 6-9). We are presently developing critical components for the new spectrometer and advancing our understanding of the measurement requirements for both CO and CH4. This new GFCR technique/sensor will enable measurements of trace gases with high sensitivity while maintaining the inherent robustness and simplicity of the more traditional radiometer hardware. Initial estimates of cost/risk of a spacebased 2-channel GFCR indicate that our design is extremely cost effective and will fit within existing ASCENDS mission budget constraints as determined by the NRC Decadal Survey and a NASA-sponsored mission study.

Cook, William B.↗

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Sparse chronology strategy for integrating seasonal energy storage in capacity expansion models

Here, this study develops the sparse chronology method to enhance the representative period framework in capacity expansion models, enabling the effective integration of long-duration energy storage modeling. Traditional representative period methods cannot capture the state of charge of seasonal energy storage systems because they do not establish effective inter-day linkages to connect the state of charge between periods. The sparse chronology approach addresses this limitation by establishing inter-day linkages that allow state of charge to shift inter-seasonally. At the same time, it groups identical representative days into partitions, applying constraints sparsely and implicitly to reduce computational load further. Validation results demonstrate that this method successfully simulates long-duration energy storage patterns, achieving close alignment with a continuous yearly benchmark model, with seasonal trends and state of charge cycles clearly represented. The computational load analysis reveals that the sparse chronology method efficiently applies constraints on maximum and minimum state of charge limits within the representative day framework, eliminating the need for detailed constraints on each individual day. By partitioning representative days and constraining only the start and end of each partition, the method significantly decreases computational requirements. Simulation results show that sparse chronology closely approximates the continuous yearly method's accuracy, even with as few as 20 representative days, achieving correlation values with the benchmark of nearly 0.9 in state of charge plots. Furthermore, it maintains computational efficiency, requiring only 4 % of the solver time compared to the continuous yearly method with 20 representative days. This approach allows capacity expansion models to incorporate long-duration energy storage with high temporal, spatial, and technological resolution, enabling more detailed modeling for large-scale power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

VERITAS Discovery of Very High Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from S3 1227+25 and Multiwavelength Observations

We report the detection of very high energy gamma-ray emission from the blazar S3 1227+25 (VER J1230+253) with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS). VERITAS observations of the source were triggered by the detection of a hard-spectrum GeV flare on 2015 May 15 with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT). A combined 5 hr VERITAS exposure on May 16 and 18 resulted in a strong 13σ detection with a differential photon spectral index, Γ = 3.8 ± 0.4, and a flux level at 9% of the Crab Nebula above 120 GeV. This also triggered target-of-opportunity observations with Swift, optical photometry, polarimetry, and radio measurements, also presented in this work, in addition to the VERITAS and Fermi-LAT data. A temporal analysis of the gamma-ray flux during this period finds evidence of a shortest variability timescale of τ obs = 6.2 ± 0.9 hr, indicating emission from compact regions within the jet, and the combined gamma-ray spectrum shows no strong evidence of a spectral cutoff. An investigation into correlations between the multiwavelength observations found evidence of optical and gamma-ray correlations, suggesting a single-zone model of emission. Finally, the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution is well described by a simple one-zone leptonic synchrotron self-Compton radiation model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Puzzling Variation of Gamma Rays from the Sun over the Solar Cycle Revealed with Fermi-LAT

The steady-state gamma-ray emission from the Sun is thought to consist of two emission components due to interactions with Galactic cosmic rays: (1) a hadronic disk component, and (2) a leptonic extended component peaking at the solar edge and extending into the heliosphere. The flux of these components is expected to vary with the 11 yr solar cycle, being highest during solar minimum and lowest during solar maximum, as it varies with the cosmic-ray flux. No study has yet analyzed the flux variation of each component over solar cycles. In this work, we measure the temporal variations of the flux of each component over 15 yr of Fermi Large Area Telescope observations and compare them with the sunspot number and Galactic cosmic-ray flux from AMS-02 near Earth. We find that the flux variation of the disk anticorrelates with the sunspot number and correlates with cosmic-ray protons, as expected, confirming its emission mechanism. In contrast, the extended component exhibits a more complex variation: despite an initial anticorrelation with the sunspot number, we find neither anticorrelation with the sunspot number nor correlation with cosmic-ray electrons over the full 15 yr period. This most likely suggests that cosmic-ray transport and modulation in the inner heliosphere are unexpectedly complex and may differ for electrons and protons or, alternatively, that there is an additional, unknown component of gamma rays or cosmic rays. These findings impact space weather research and emphasize the need for close monitoring of Cycle 25 and the ongoing polarity reversal.

Acharyya, A. [Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (D↗

Computation of rotor aerodynamic loads with a constant vorticity contour free wake model

An analytical method is presented which facilitates the study of isolated rotors with an improved approach to wake simulation. Vortex filaments are simulated along contours of constant sheet strength for the sheet of vorticity resulting from each rotor blade. Curved vortex elements comprise the filaments which can be distorted by the local velocity field. Called the Constant Vorticity Contour wake model, the approach permits the simulation of the blades' wakes corresponding to the full span of the rotor blade. The discretization of the wake of the rotor blade produces spacing and structure that are consistent with the spatial and temporal variations in the loading. A vortex-lattice aerodynamic model of the blade is also included which introduces a finite-element structural model of the blade and consideration of the force and moment trim analysis. Results of the present version of the simulation, called RotorCRAFT, are found to correlate well with H-34 flight-test data.

Quackenbush, Todd R.↗

Precision Solar Disk Photometry - A Tool for Understanding Changes in the Sun's Luminosity

The principal scientific aim of this project is to better understand the observed long-term temporal variations in the Sun's luminosity. Satellite observations have revealed that the flux of solar radiation striking the Earth is modulated by the solar magnetic cycle, being approximately 0.1 percent larger during solar maximum. The impact of this irradiance modulation on terrestrial climate is difficult to model. However, the correlation between the Maunder minimum (a period of low solar magnetic activity in the late 1600s) and the 'Little Ice Age' in Europe during the same period does suggest that small changes in the solar luminosity can profoundly affect the Earth's climate.

Source record↗

Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

Pinzon, Jorge E.↗