SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2022

Statistical Distribution of Gear Surface Fatigue Lives at High Reliability

The reliability of gears is important for a wide variety of applications, and the gearing community has a desire for better prediction of fatigue life at very high reliability. To improve predictions, a set of 950 NASA-conducted gear surface fatigue test results were gathered, pooled together using the general standardized Weibull variate, and then fit to a Weibull three-parameter distribution. An iterative fitting method was developed and then applied to the gear fatigue data to determine the values of the distribution parameters. Additional analyses were done using bearing and gear data that demonstrate a trend of increasing minimum life coefficient as correlated to the timeframe of the fatigue testing, and material cleanliness is proposed as a primary explanation for such correlation. It is noted that this observed trend supports published findings from analytical modeling and experimental studies that improvements to material cleanliness improves minimum fatigue life. Further use and study of the three-parameter Weibull distribution is recommended as a tool to quantify fatigue life most accurately in the high reliability regime.

gear↗

NASA NTRS1981

Galileo maneuver analysis

In the maneuver analysis of the Galileo spacecraft, analytic models have been developed to assess the performance of an interplanetary dual spin spacecraft. These models take into account all the important effects of dual spin and flexible body dynamics to determine the spacecraft capability to achieve precise velocity changes for a variety of maneuver modes, as dictated by the requirements and as are tested and verified by computer simulation. Proportional velocity change magnitude accuracies as small as 0.34%, proportional velocity change pointing accuracies as little as 10 milliradians and fixed velocity change accuracies as precise as 0.015 m/sec are indicative of the stringency of these requirements. Error sources considered in the statistical analysis include probabilistic uncertainties due to wobble, plume impingement, nutation, thruster and accelerometer misalignments and radial offsets, gyro drift, burn timing, mass properties and algorithm errors. With its twelve thrusters, the versatility of the spacecraft to maneuver among the Galilean moons for eleven encounters after delivering a probe into the Jovian atmosphere provides a new level of challenge in the area of maneuver analysis.

Longuski, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Study of advanced fuel system concepts for commercial aircraft

An analytical study was performed in order to assess relative performance and economic factors involved with alternative advanced fuel systems for future commercial aircraft operating with broadened property fuels. The DC-10-30 wide-body tri-jet aircraft and the CF6-8OX engine were used as a baseline design for the study. Three advanced systems were considered and were specifically aimed at addressing freezing point, thermal stability and lubricity fuel properties. Actual DC-10-30 routes and flight profiles were simulated by computer modeling and resulted in prediction of aircraft and engine fuel system temperatures during a nominal flight and during statistical one-day-per-year cold and hot flights. Emergency conditions were also evaluated. Fuel consumption and weight and power extraction results were obtained. An economic analysis was performed for new aircraft and systems. Advanced system means for fuel tank heating included fuel recirculation loops using engine lube heat and generator heat. Environmental control system bleed air heat was used for tank heating in a water recirculation loop. The results showed that fundamentally all of the three advanced systems are feasible but vary in their degree of compatibility with broadened-property fuel.

Coffinberry, G. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Flexure fatigue testing of 90 deg graphite/epoxy composites

A great deal of research has been performed characterizing the in-plane fiber-dominated properties, under both static and fatigue loading, of advanced composite materials. To the author's knowledge, no study has been performed to date investigating fatigue characteristics in the transverse direction. This information is important in the design of bonded composite airframe structure where repeated, cyclic out-of-plane bending may occur. Recent tests characterizing skin/stringer debond failures in reinforced composite panels where the dominant loading in the skin is flexure along the edge of the frame indicate failure initiated either in the skin or else the flange, near the flange tip. When failure initiated in the skin, transverse matrix cracks formed in the surface skin ply closest to the flange and either initiated delaminations or created matrix cracks in the next lower ply, which in turn initiated delaminations. When failure initiated in the flanges, transverse cracks formed in the flange angle ply closest to the skin and initiated delamination. In no configuration did failure propagate through the adhesive bond layer. For the examined skin/flange configurations, the maximum transverse tension stress at failure correlates very well with the transverse tension strength of the composites. Transverse tension strength (static) data of graphite epoxy composites have been shown to vary with the volume of material stressed. As the volume of material stressed increased, the strength decreased. A volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics can be used to predict the transverse strength measurements. The volume dependence reflects the presence of inherent flaws in the microstructure of the lamina. A similar approach may be taken to determine a volume scale effect on the transverse tension fatigue behavior of graphite/epoxy composites. The objective of this work is to generate transverse tension strength and fatigue S-N characteristics for composite materials using 3-point flexure tests of 90 deg graphite/epoxy specimens. Investigations will include the volume scale effect as well as frequency and span-to-thickness ratio effects. Prior to the start of the experimental study, an analytical study using finite element modeling will be performed to investigate the span-to-thickness effect. The ratio of transverse flexure stress to shear stress will be monitored and its values predicted by the FEM analysis compared with the value obtained using a 'strength of materials' based approach.

Peck, Ann Nancy W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computational and Experimental Mechanistic Insights into the Ethanol-to-Butanol Upgrading Reaction over MgO

The mechanism of ethanol upgrading to higher products is still under debate, especially regarding intermediate species and hydrogenation and dehydrogenation steps. In this work, we conducted a combined theoretical and experimental approach to contribute to this discussion. For such, detailed electronic structure density functional theory calculations (aiming at probing density of states, infrared spectra, geometric parameters, charge densities, and reaction energetics) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy experiments were carried out revealing the relevance of an appropriate combination of reactive surface sites to support the formation of several intermediates that are formed in the C-C coupling over MgO. The roles of Mg and O sites were also studied under an electronic perspective and different geometrical arrangements. We found that a kink configuration was the most adequate for ethanol to 1-butanol upgrading. Our calculations also gave us arguments to propose distinct reaction routes, whose mutual predominance would depend upon reaction temperature. At temperatures up to 573 K, the so-called β-route, which goes through scission of a Cβ-H bond and formation of an oxametallacycle-like intermediate, would dominate the coupling, whereas at higher temperatures, up to 673 K, a more usual Guerbet mechanism, via an aldol coupling step and then consecutive hydrogenations, would be expected. Here, the theoretical conclusions were followed by a careful experimental strategy using sequential experimental planning techniques in order to estimate accurate parameters with the lowest possible experimental load. Information from these different sources were coupled to develop a mathematical model for the rate of the ethanol upgrading reaction, using a Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson approach. The developed and statistically validated model adequately described the experimental data at 673 K and 1.1 bar total pressure for ethanol partial pressures in the range from 0 to 20 kPa.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process prediction and detection of faults using probabilistic bidirectional recurrent neural networks on real plant data

Attaining Industry 4.0 for manufacturing operations requires advanced monitoring systems and real-time data analytics of plant data, among other topics. We propose a Probabilistic Bidirectional Recurrent Network (PBRN) for industrial process monitoring for the early detection of faults. The model is based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network that allows the model to retain long-term dependencies between sensor data along a time horizon, hence learning the dynamic behavior of the process. To reduce the false-positive detection rate of the model, we compel the model to learn from a highly noisy sensor reading while outputting noise-free sensor outputs. The performance of the proposed model is compared to other data-driven statistical process monitoring schemes using real plant data from an industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) containing noisy sensor readings. We show that the model can learn from noisy data without reducing its performance. Using two different fault cases, we demonstrate the model’s ability to carry out early fault detection with average false-positive rates of 2.9% and 4.9% for both fault cases. The missed detection rates are 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Barren Plateaus Preclude Learning Scramblers

Scrambling processes, which rapidly spread entanglement through many-body quantum systems, are difficult to investigate using standard techniques, but are relevant to quantum chaos and thermalization. In this Letter, we ask if quantum machine learning (QML) could be used to investigate such processes. In this study we prove a no-go theorem for learning an unknown scrambling process with QML, showing that it is highly probable for any variational Ansatz to have a barren plateau landscape, i.e., cost gradients that vanish exponentially in the system size. This implies that the required resources scale exponentially even when strategies to avoid such scaling (e.g., from Ansatz -based barren plateaus or no-free-lunch theorems) are employed. Furthermore, we numerically and analytically extend our results to approximate scramblers. Hence, our work places generic limits on the learnability of unitaries when lacking prior information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Energy X-ray Diffraction Microscopy for Nuclear Forensics FY2022 Project Report

Morphological information on nuclear material has been identified using visible light and scanning electron microscopy. These identify qualitative differences in particle morphology. Three-dimensional imaging of materials through alternating scanning electron microscopy imaging and focused ion beam milling has also been used. Unfortunately, these techniques are time- and labor-intensive, with significant sample preparation required and lengthy analysis times. Further, the resulting 3D images are qualitative, require manual identification, and do not capture statistically-representative populations. High energy X-ray 3D imaging using a direct-beam or diffracted-beam (High-Energy Diffraction Microscopy) have been developed at the Advanced Photon Source and can produce quantitative information on grains (phase, location, etc.) and pores (size distribution, sphericity) in a material. These techniques require only minutes to characterize a sample volume and are non-destructive, thus suitable for a wide range of existing samples and for confirmatory analyses to be carried out using conventional microscopy techniques. In this first year of the project, all uranium oxide samples were synthesized and characterized using conventional analyses by the analytical chemistry laboratory. Conventional analysis methods included powder x-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, impurity analysis via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and infrared spectroscopy. Impurity analysis shows a drop in boron content from UO 3 to the lowest U 3 O 8 calcination temperature, but otherwise no appreciable difference in any sample. Analysis of diffraction data shows a flip of peaks from UO 3 dominated for the 600 °C calcined sample to U 3 O 8 dominated at 700 °C and 800 °C. Analysis of scanning electron microscopy images shows that with increased calcination temperature the size distribution of particles seems to increase and broaden. Both of these last findings are in line with previously published data, though this work used significantly fewer particles to simply show similar trends instead of getting truly quantitative particle analysis. Infrared analysis similarly shows ingrowth of U 3 O 8 as calcination temperature is increased, along with depression of peaks associated with UO 3 and water. Samples were prepared for analysis at the Advanced Photon Source at beamline 1-ID. It is anticipated that analysis will occur in November of 2022. AI/ML techniques to de-noise data coming out of 1-ID during the analyses was also developed during this time using previously gathered data. Preliminary results using a self-supervision technique called Noise2Selfshow good de-noising of data. Once the uranium oxide samples are analyzed, real data will be used to test the de-noising and other AI/ML techniques that may be developed in the second year of the project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and wind variations between 50 and 200 km

Data on atmospheric pressure, density, temperature and winds between 50 and 200 km were collected from sources including Meteorological Rocket Network data, ROBIN falling sphere data, grenade release and pitot tube data, meteor winds, chemical release winds, satellite data, and others. These data were analyzed by a daily difference method and results on the distribution statistics, magnitude, and spatial structure of the irregular atmospheric variations are presented. Time structures of the irregular variations were determined by the analysis of residuals from harmonic analysis of time series data. The observed height variations of irregular winds and densities are found to be in accord with a theoretical relation between these two quantities. The latitude variations (at 50 - 60 km height) show an increasing trend with latitude. A possible explanation of the unusually large irregular wind magnitudes of the White Sands MRN data is given in terms of mountain wave generation by the Sierra Nevada range about 1000 km west of White Sands. An analytical method is developed which, based on an analogy of the irregular motion field with axisymmetric turbulence, allows measured or model correlation or structure functions to be used to evaluate the effective frequency spectra of scalar and vector quantities of a spacecraft moving at any speed and at any trajectory elevation angle.

Justus, C. G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A review of crack propagation under unsteady loading

The theories and research current available on crack propagation under unsteady loadings, especially those of acoustic origin, are reviewed. Since the original theories on fatigue failure did not account for random loading conditions, modified theories which provide statistical methods for evaluating the random loading have emerged. The impact of acoustic fatigue in the aerospace industry, basic principles such as fatigue crack initiation and propagation and load interactions, and testing procedures are discussed. Attention is also given to metal and metal alloy structures, fiber-reinforced composites and nonmetallic structures, short crack growth, and the effects of temperature, moisture, and corrosion on structures. Suggestions for future research in this field are presented, namely, studies on the effect of 'snap-through' response and associated crack growth patterns, studies in microcrack and 'small crack'; propagation under unsteady loading conditions, and the development of an accurate analytical model to predict acceleration and retardation effects in fatigue crack growth under random loading conditions.

Bryan, H. H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Experimental Investigations of Non-Stationary Properties In Radiometer Receivers Using Measurements of Multiple Calibration References

Radiometers must be periodically calibrated because the receiver response fluctuates. Many techniques exist to correct for the time varying response of a radiometer receiver. An analytical technique has been developed that uses generalized least squares regression (LSR) to predict the performance of a wide variety of calibration algorithms. The total measurement uncertainty including the uncertainty of the calibration can be computed using LSR. The uncertainties of the calibration samples used in the regression are based upon treating the receiver fluctuations as non-stationary processes. Signals originating from the different sources of emission are treated as simultaneously existing random processes. Thus, the radiometer output is a series of samples obtained from these random processes. The samples are treated as random variables but because the underlying processes are non-stationary the statistics of the samples are treated as non-stationary. The statistics of the calibration samples depend upon the time for which the samples are to be applied. The statistics of the random variables are equated to the mean statistics of the non-stationary processes over the interval defined by the time of calibration sample and when it is applied. This analysis opens the opportunity for experimental investigation into the underlying properties of receiver non stationarity through the use of multiple calibration references. In this presentation we will discuss the application of LSR to the analysis of various calibration algorithms, requirements for experimental verification of the theory, and preliminary results from analyzing experiment measurements.

Racette, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2003

On the Computation of Space-Time Correlations by Large-Eddy Simulation

Numerical comparisons in decaying isotropic turbulence suggest that there exist discrepancies in time correlations evaluated by DNS and LES using eddy-viscosity-type SGS models. This is consistent with the previous observations in forced isotropic turbulence. Therefore, forcing is not the main cause of the discrepancies. Comparisons among different SGS models in the LES also indicate that the model choice affects the time correlations in the LES. The multi-scale LES method using the dynamic Smagorinsky model on the small scale equation is the most accurate of the all models, the classic Smagorinsky model is the least accurate and the dynamic Smagorinsky model and spectral eddy viscosity model give intermediate results with small differences. The generalized sweeping hypothesis implies that time correlations in decaying isotropic turbulence are mainly determined by the instantaneous energy spectra and sweeping velocities. The analysis based on the sweeping hypothesis explains the discrepancies in our numerical simulations: the LES overpredicts the decorrelation time scales because the sweeping velocities are smaller than the DNS values, and underpredicts the magnitudes of time correlations because the energy spectrum levels are lower than the DNS ones. Since the sweeping velocity is determined by the energy spectra, one concludes that an accurate prediction of the instantaneous energy spectra guarantees the accuracy of time correlations. An analytical expression of sound power spectra based on Lighthill's theory and the quasi-normal closure assumption suggests that the sound power spectra are sensitive to errors in time correlations. Small errors in time correlations can cause significant errors in the sound power spectra, which exhibit a sizable drop at moderate to high frequencies accompanied by a shift of the peaks to lower frequencies. Based on the above analysis, two possible ways to improve the acoustic power spectrum predictions can be considered. The first is to construct better SGS models to improve the LES accuracy for time correlations. The second is to remedy the temporal statistics of the Lighthill stress tensor in order to "recover" the contribution from the unresolved scales in LES to time correlations.

He, Guo-Wei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble Simulations and Experimental Free Energy Distributions: Evaluation and Characterization of Isoxazole Amides as SMYD3 Inhibitors

Optimization of binding affinities for ligands to their target protein is a primary objective in rational drug discovery. Herein, we report on a collaborative study that evaluates various compounds designed to bind to the SET and MYND domain-containing protein 3 (SMYD3). SMYD3 is a histone methyltransferase and plays an important role in transcriptional regulation in cell proliferation, cell cycle, and human carcinogenesis. Experimental measurements using the scintillation proximity assay show that the distributions of binding free energies from a large number of independent measurements exhibit non-normal properties. We use ESMACS (enhanced sampling of molecular dynamics with approximation of continuum solvent) and TIES (thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling) protocols to predict the binding free energies and to provide a detailed chemical insight into the nature of ligand-protein binding. Our results show that the 1-trajectory ESMACS protocol works well for the set of ligands studied here. Although one unexplained outlier exists, we obtain excellent statistical ranking across the set of compounds from the ESMACS protocol and good agreement between calculations and experiments for the relative binding free energies from the TIES protocol. ESMACS and TIES are again found to be powerful protocols for the accurate comparison of the binding free energies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy bispectrum in the spherical Fourier-Bessel basis

The bispectrum, the three-point correlation in Fourier space, is a crucial statistic for studying many effects targeted by the next-generation galaxy surveys, such as primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) and general relativistic (GR) effects on large scales. In this work we develop a formalism for the bispectrum in the spherical Fourier-Bessel (SFB) basis—a natural basis for computing correlation functions on the curved sky, as it diagonalizes the Laplacian operator in spherical coordinates. Working in the SFB basis allows for line-of-sight effects such as redshift space distortions and GR to be accounted for exactly, i.e., without having to resort to perturbative expansions to go beyond the plane-parallel approximation. Only analytic results for the SFB bispectrum exist in the literature given the intensive computations needed. We numerically calculate the SFB bispectrum for the first time, enabled by a few techniques: We implement a template decomposition of the redshift-space kernel Z 2 into Legendre polynomials, and separately treat the PNG and velocity-divergence terms. We derive an identity to integrate a product of three spherical harmonics connected by a Dirac delta function as a simple sum and use it to investigate the limit of a homogeneous and isotropic Universe. Furthermore, we present a formalism for convolving the signal with separable window functions and use a toy spherically symmetric window to demonstrate the computation and give insights into the properties of the observed bispectrum signal. While our implementation remains computationally challenging, it is a step toward a feasible full extraction of information on large scales via a SFB bispectrum analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Precise Modeling of a Complex Solenoidal Magnetic Field Using a Combination of Analytic Functions and a PINN

We demonstrate an iterative approach to modeling a sparsely measured magnetic field in a large-bore solenoid. This approach uses a hybrid of traditional and machine learning techniques. The traditional technique is a linear least-squares fit using a series solution to Laplace's equation, while the machine learning technique involves the training of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) on the least-squares fit residuals. We use a newly defined activation function "DELTAsnake," a modification to the snake activation function proposed by Ziyin et al. that allows for stronger curvature and non-monotonicity. The combined model approximately obeys Maxwell's equations to a level sufficient for producing high quality physics simulations and analysis. Our approach is applied to a highly realistic calculation of the expected magnetic field in the Mu2e experiment's Detector Solenoid which includes a simple model for the expected statistical measurement uncertainties. Using ten toy measurement simulations, we demonstrate the capabilities of our model in comparison to the least-squares method alone; the least-squares method alone results in a reduced chi-squared statistic of ${2.15 \pm 0.01}$, while our approach improves the reduced chi-square to ${1.034 \pm 0.005}$. Furthermore, for an average toy simulation, we show that the range of the RMS of the three field component residuals reduces from ${0.07-0.37}$ Gauss to ${0.05-0.07}$ Gauss. We find that this novel method is robust against a realistic systematic uncertainty deriving from Hall probe calibration bias and can be used to significantly reduce the number of measurements required to achieve an accurate model.

Kampa, Cole [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000192972920)↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Latent Dynamics to Meaningful Representations

While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or are ad hoc. To deal with this, recent efforts have shifted towards leveraging the insights from physical principles to guide the learning process. In this spirit, we propose a purely dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of relying on predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow overdamped Langevin dynamics with a learnable transition density — a prior driven by statistical mechanics. We show this is a more natural constraint for representation learning in stochastic dynamical systems, with the crucial ability to uniquely identify the ground truth representation. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. Here, we show that our algorithm can uniquely identify orthogonal, isometric and meaningful latent representations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Redesigned Hybrid Nylons with Optical Clarity and Chemical Recyclability

Aliphatic polyamides, or nylons, are typically highly crystalline and thermally robust polymers used in high-performance applications. Nylon 6, a high-ceiling-temperature (HCT) polyamide from e-caprolactam, lacks expedient chemical recyclability, while low-ceiling temperature (LCT) nylon 4 from pyrrolidone exhibits complete chemical recyclability, but it is thermally unstable and not melt-processable. Here, we introduce a hybrid nylon, nylon 4/6, based on a bicyclic lactam composed of both HCT ..epsilon..-caprolactam and LCT pyrrolidone motifs in a hybridized offspring structure. Hybrid nylon 4/6 overcomes trade-offs in (de)polymerizability and performance properties of the parent nylons, exhibiting both excellent polymerization and facile depolymerization characteristics. This stereoregular polyamide forms nanocrystalline domains, allowing optical clarity and high thermal stability, however, without displaying a melting transition before decomposition. Of a series of statistical copolymers comprising nylon 4/6 and nylon 4, a 50/50 copolymer achieves the greatest synergy in both reactivity and polymer properties of each homopolymer, offering an amorphous nylon with favorable properties, including optical clarity, a high glass transition temperature, melt processability, and full chemical recyclability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for early DESI data

ABSTRACT We present an extended validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on simulated catalogs representative of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) data collected during the initial 2 months of operations of the Stage-IV ground-based Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We run the pipeline on multiple effective Zel’dovich (EZ) mock galaxy catalogs with the corresponding cuts applied and compare the results with the mock sample covariance to assess the accuracy and its fluctuations. We propose an extension of the previously developed formalism for catalogs processed with standard reconstruction algorithms. We consider methods for comparing covariance matrices in detail, highlighting their interpretation and statistical properties caused by sample variance, in particular, non-trivial expectation values of certain metrics even when the external covariance estimate is perfect. With improved mocks and validation techniques, we confirm a good agreement between our predictions and sample covariance. This allows one to generate covariance matrices for comparable data sets without the need to create numerous mock galaxy catalogs with matching clustering, only requiring 2PCF measurements from the data itself. The code used in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/oliverphilcox/RascalC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗