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At least 991 records · Page 55

New methods for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum

Three new and independent methods of predicting the magnitude of a forthcoming sunspot maximum are suggested. The longest lead time is given by the first method, which is based on a terrestrial parameter measured during the declining phase of the preceding cycle. The second method, with only a slightly shorter foreknowledge, is based on an interplanetary parameter derived around the commencement of the cycle in question (sunspot minimum). The third method, giving the shortest prediction lead-time, is based entirely on solar parameters measured during the initial progress of the cycle in question. Application of all three methods to forecast the magnitude of the next maximum (Cycle 21) agree in predicting that it is likely to be very similar to that of Cycle 18.

Brown, G. M.↗

Densities and abundances of hot cometary ions in the coma of P/Halley

On its flight by P/Halley, the Giotto spacecraft carried a High Energy Range Spectrometer (HERS) for measuring the properties of cometary ions picked up by the solar wind in the nearly collisionless regions of the coma. Preliminary estimates of the ion densities observed by HERS were reevaluated and extended; density profiles along the Giotto trajectory are presented for 13 values of ion mass/charge. Comparison with the physical-chemical model of the interaction of sunlight and the solar wind with the comet by other researchers reveals that, with the exception of protons and H2(+), all ion densities were at least an order of magnitude higher than predicted. The high ion densities cannot be explained on the basis of compression of the plasma, but require additional or stronger ionization mechanisms. Ratios of the densities of different ion species reveal an overabundance of carbonaceous material and an underabundance of H2(+) compared to the predictions of the Schmidt. While the densities of solar wind ions (H(+) and He(++)) changed sharply across a magnetic discontinuity located 1.35(10)(exp 5) km from the comet, this feature, which has been called both the 'cometopause' and the 'magnetic pileup boundary' was barely distinguishable in the density profiles of hot cometary ions. This result is consistent with the interpretation that the magnetic pileup boundary detected by Giotto was caused by a discontinuity in the solar wind and is not an intrinsic feature of the interaction of the solar wind with an active comet.

Neugebauer, M.↗

A model of the brightness of moonlight

In this paper, measurements of the sky brightness from the 2800-m level of Mauna Kea are reported. In addition, a model is presented for predicting the moonlight as a function of the moon's phase, the zenith distance of the moon, the zenith distance of the sky position, the angular separation of the moon and sky position, and the local extinction coefficient. The model equations can be quickly calculated on a pocket calculator. A comparison of the model with lunar data and with some Russian solar data shows the accuracy of the predictions to range from 8 percent to 23 percent.

Krisciunas, Kevin↗

Opportunities to Intercalibrate Radiometric Sensors From International Space Station

Highly accurate measurements of Earth's thermal infrared and reflected solar radiation are required for detecting and predicting long-term climate change. We consider the concept of using the International Space Station to test instruments and techniques that would eventually be used on a dedicated mission such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory. In particular, a quantitative investigation is performed to determine whether it is possible to use measurements obtained with a highly accurate reflected solar radiation spectrometer to calibrate similar, less accurate instruments in other low Earth orbits. Estimates of numbers of samples useful for intercalibration are made with the aid of year-long simulations of orbital motion. We conclude that the International Space Station orbit is ideally suited for the purpose of intercalibration.

Roithmayr, C. M.↗

Substorm warnings - An ISEE-3 real time data system

The use of solar wind measurements made by ISEE-3 in its halo orbit around the L1 libration point to predict the onsets of magnetospheric substorms and geomagnetic storms is discussed. Consideration is given to the limitations on the predictive ability of the satellite measurements set by the bulk solar wind velocity, the elliptical orbit of the satellite and the correlation lengths of the magnetic field and the solar wind plasma. The ISEE-3 real-time data system is presented, with attention given to the ground receiving stations, the NASCOM communications system, the Multisatellite Operations Control Center and Information Processing Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center, the link between Goddard and the NOAA Space Environmental Services Center, and the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory data acquisition and display data system, which includes displays allowing storm forecasts. It is noted that the entire system should be operational by March, 1980.

Tsurutani, B.↗

Predicting Ly-alpha intensities in coronal streamers

SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) UVCS (Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer) will make long term observations of coronal streamers in UV lines, providing a new tool for the analysis of structures which have been known for decades but are still far from being adequately described. Work to evaluate the Lyman alpha brightness of coronal streamers is reported, adopting the streamer models obtained, via a time dependent numerical relaxation technique. This will yield understanding on the role of geometric versus physical factors in determining the streamer lyman alpha intensity and provide guidelines for UVCS observational operations. Future prospects along this line of research are summarized.

Noci, Giancarlo↗

Enabling Ultrathin III-V Solar Cells Using Dual Photonic Crystals

III-V materials provide the highest efficiencies, but the higher cost of these materials compared to other alternatives such as silicon has limited their applications. One way of reducing the costs is by minimizing the amount of material needed. In this work, using optical simulations we test light trapping layers in the front and in the back of a GaAs single junction solar cell. By using these layers, we predict that we can obtain near optically thick GaAs single junctions with only 300 nm active material, with maximum calculated J sc of 28.7 mA/cm 2 under the radiative limit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Large-scale solar magnetic fields and H-alpha patterns

Coronal and interplanetary magnetic fields computed from measurements of large-scale photospheric magnetic fields suffer from interruptions in day-to-day observations and the limitation of using only measurements made near the solar central meridian. Procedures were devised for inferring the lines of polarity reversal from H-alpha solar patrol photographs that map the same large-scale features found on Mt. Wilson magnetograms. These features may be monitored without interruption by combining observations from the global network of observatories associated with NOAA's Space Environment Services Center. The patterns of inferred magnetic fields may be followed accurately as far as 60 deg from central meridian. Such patterns will be used to improve predictions of coronal features during the next solar eclipse.

Mcintosh, P. S.↗

Flare heating and ionization of the low solar chromosphere. II - Observations of five solar flares

Two neutral Mg spectral lines formed in the temperature-minimum region and the low chromosphere, at 4571 and 5173 A, are used to quantify the changes in the atmospheric structure as a function of time during five solar flares. Eight proposed flare heating and ionization mechanisms and predictions of the effects of each on the temperature minimum region are discussed. Two Mg spectral observations made at the National Solar Observatory (Sacramento Peak), along with observations of hard and soft X-rays from the SMM and GOES satellites, are compared to the predictions of the eight proposed mechanisms. The initial effects in all five flares are consistent with backwarming by enhanced Balmer- and Paschen-continuum radiation originating in the upper chromosphere. Extended heating observed in two of the flares is most likely due to UV irradiation. In all cases heating by the dissipation of nonreversed electric currents, collisions with an electron or proton beam, irradiation by soft X-rays, and dissipation of Alfven waves are eliminated.

Metcalf, Thomas R.↗

Detecting and disentangling nonlinear structure from solar flux time series

Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.

Ashrafi, S.↗

First Observations of a Foreshock Bubble at Earth: Implications for Magnetospheric Activity and Energetic Particle Acceleration

Earth?s foreshock, which is the quasi-parallel region upstream of the bow shock, is a unique plasma region capable of generating several kinds of large-scale phenomena, each of which can impact the magnetosphere resulting in global effects. Interestingly, such phenomena have also been observed at planetary foreshocks throughout our solar system. Recently, a new type of foreshock phenomena has been predicted: foreshock bubbles, which are large-scale disruptions of both the foreshock and incident solar wind plasmas that can result in global magnetospheric disturbances. Here we present unprecedented, multi-point observations of foreshock bubbles at Earth using a combination of spacecraft and ground observations primarily from the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission, and we include detailed analysis of the events? global effects on the magnetosphere and the energetic ions and electrons accelerated by them, potentially by a combination of first and second order Fermi and shock drift acceleration processes. This new phenomena should play a role in energetic particle acceleration at collisionless, quasi-parallel shocks throughout the Universe.

Turner, D. L.↗

Opportunities to Intercalibrate Radiometric Sensors from International Space Station

Highly accurate measurements of Earth's thermal infrared and reflected solar radiation are required for detecting and predicting long-term climate change. Consideration is given to the concept of using the International Space Station to test instruments and techniques that would eventually be used on a dedicated mission, such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). In particular, a quantitative investigation is performed to determine whether it is possible to use measurements obtained with a highly accurate (0.3%,with 95%confidence) reflected solar radiation spectrometer to calibrate similar, less accurate instruments in other low Earth orbits. Estimates of numbers of samples useful for intercalibration are made with the aid of yearlong simulations of orbital motion. Results of this study support the conclusion that the International Space Station orbit is ideally suited for the purpose of intercalibration between spaceborne sensors.

Intercalibrate↗

Are the high-latitude torsional oscillations of the sun real

A numerical test is made to determine if the high-latitude torsional wave is generated from the low-latitude torsional pattern as a result of reduction procedures. The results indicate that the high-latitude motions are not an artifact of the analysis, but are true solar features. It is also demonstrated that the one-wave-per-hemisphere torsional oscillation does not result from the reduction procedure. These results place the observations in conflict with the predictions of alpha-omega models of the solar cycle.

Labonte, B. J.↗

Development of a solar-cell dust opacity measurement instrument for Mars Pathfinder

The atmosphere of Mars has a considerable load of suspended dust. Over time, this dust is deposited out of the atmosphere. The mechanism and the temporal and geographical variation of this deposition are not well characterized. Measurements of settling rates and dust properties are of considerable scientific interest. Atmospheric dust affects the atmospheric solar absorption and thus the heat balance of Mars, as well as serving as nucleation sites for water and CO2 frost. Knowledge of dust properties is of critical interest to design and prediction of the lifetime and power output of solar arrays, and also to design of mechanical mechanisms and radiators. An instrument has been designed and fabricated to measure the dust accumulation during the course of the Mars Pathfinder rover mission. The solar-cell coverglass transmission experiment will measure the change in optical opacity of a transparent coverglass as dust settles on the surface, and a quartz crystal monitor will measure the mass deposited.

Geoffrey A. Landis↗

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations

Strong, Keith↗

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

Sun: Corona↗