SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2013

Short-term Androgen-Deprivation Therapy Improves Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality in Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Dose-Escalated External Beam Radiation Therapy

Purpose: We investigated the benefit of short-term androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PC) receiving dose-escalated external beam radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The present retrospective study comprised 710 intermediate-risk PC patients receiving external beam radiation therapy with doses of ≥81 Gy at a single institution from 1992 to 2005, including 357 patients receiving neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. Prostate-specific antigen recurrence-free survival (PSA-RFS) and distant metastasis (DM) were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models. PC-specific mortality (PCSM) was assessed using competing-risks analysis. Results: The median follow-up was 7.9 years. Despite being more likely to have higher PSA levels, Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7, multiple National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate-risk factors, and older age (P≤.001 for all comparisons), patients receiving ADT had improved PSA-RFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.598; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.435-0.841; P=.003), DM (HR, 0.424; 95% CI, 0.219-0.819; P=.011), and PCSM (HR, 0.380; 95% CI, 0.157-0.921; P=.032) on univariate analysis. Using multivariate analysis, ADT was an even stronger predictor of improved PSA-RFS (adjusted HR [AHR], 0.516; 95% CI, 0.360-0.739; P<.001), DM (AHR, 0.347; 95% CI, 0.176-0.685; P=.002), and PCSM (AHR, 0.297; 95% CI, 0.128-0.685; P=.004). Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7 and ≥50% positive biopsy cores were other independent predictors of PCSM. Conclusions: Short-term ADT improves PSA-RFS, DM, and PCSM in patients with intermediate-risk PC undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T 0 )-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals. - Highlights: ► We evaluate the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data for use in risk assessment. ► We focus on information about the mechanism of action for the developing testis. ► Multiple studies report effects on testosterone and insl3-related pathways. ► We identify additional affected pathways that may explain some testis effects. ► The case study is a template for evaluating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nanotechnology in agriculture: Opportunities, toxicological implications, and occupational risks

Nanotechnology has the potential to make a beneficial impact on several agricultural, forestry, and environmental challenges, such as urbanization, energy constraints, and sustainable use of resources. However, new environmental and human health hazards may emerge from nano-enhanced applications. This raises concerns for agricultural workers who may become primarily exposed to such xenobiotics during their job tasks. The aim of this review is to discuss promising solutions that nanotechnology may provide in agricultural activities, with a specific focus on critical aspects, challenging issues, and research needs for occupational risk assessment and management in this emerging field. Eco-toxicological aspects were not the focus of the review. Nano-fertilizers, (nano-sized nutrients, nano-coated fertilizers, or engineered metal-oxide or carbon-based nanomaterials per se), and nano-pesticides, (nano-formulations of traditional active ingredients or inorganic nanomaterials), may provide a targeted/controlled release of agrochemicals, aimed to obtain their fullest biological efficacy without over-dosage. Nano-sensors and nano-remediation methods may detect and remove environmental contaminants. However, limited knowledge concerning nanomaterial biosafety, adverse effects, fate, and acquired biological reactivity once dispersed into the environment, requires further scientific efforts to assess possible nano-agricultural risks. In this perspective, toxicological research should be aimed to define nanomaterial hazards and levels of exposure along the life-cycle of nano-enabled products, and to assess those physico-chemical features affecting nanomaterial toxicity, possible interactions with agro-system co-formulants, and stressors. Overall, this review highlights the importance to define adequate risk management strategies for workers, occupational safety practices and policies, as well as to develop a responsible regulatory consensus on nanotechnology in agriculture. - Highlights: • Nanotechnology can help precision farming and sustainable agriculture development. • Nano-innovations for agriculture may impact human and environmental health. • Workers exposed to nanomaterials may face emerging occupational risks. • Toxicology should assess the nanomaterial impact on agrosystems and human beings. • Toxicological research may guide effective risk assessment and management processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk of hematological malignancies from CT radiation exposure in children, adolescents and young adults

Over one million European children undergo computed tomography (CT) scans annually. Although moderate- to high-dose ionizing radiation exposure is an established risk factor for hematological malignancies, risks at CT examination dose levels remain uncertain. Here we followed up a multinational cohort (EPI-CT) of 948,174 individuals who underwent CT examinations before age 22 years in nine European countries. Radiation doses to the active bone marrow were estimated on the basis of body part scanned, patient characteristics, time period and inferred CT technical parameters. We found an association between cumulative dose and risk of all hematological malignancies, with an excess relative risk of 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 3.12) per 100 mGy (790 cases). Similar estimates were obtained for lymphoid and myeloid malignancies. Results suggest that for every 10,000 children examined today (mean dose 8 mGy), 1–2 persons are expected to develop a hematological malignancy attributable to radiation exposure in the subsequent 12 years. Our results strengthen the body of evidence of increased cancer risk at low radiation doses and highlight the need for continued justification of pediatric CT examinations and optimization of doses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m{sup −3} proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas, all building material samples have exceeded the radon concentration in concrete and building materials of 3 to 7 Bq m{sup −3} estimated by ICRP. The annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, and radon exhalation rates in tin tailings were calculated to be in the range of 2.47 to 11.46 mSv, 5.94 to 1090.56 mSv y{sup −1}, and 0.23 to 1.18 mBq kg{sup −1} h{sup −1}. For building materials, the calculated risk assessment of the annual effective dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk were 0.72 to 10.00 mSv, 1.73 to 24.00 mSv y{sup −1}, 0.010 to 0.06 mBq kg{sup −1} h{sup −1} and 40 to 550 chances of persons will suffer the cancer per million (1 × 10{sup 6}), respectively.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Ecological risk assessment of elemental pollution in sediment from Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park, Sabah

Eleven (11) surface sediment samples were collected from Tunku Abdul Rahman National Park, Sabah. The neutron activation analysis (NAA) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) techniques were applied for the determinations metal contents and their distributions in sediment samples. The results shown that Arsenic (As) concentrations are enriched at all sampling stations except for station TAR 09, with enrichment factor (EF) values ranged from 1.1 to 7.2. The elements such as Cd, Cr, Sb and U showed enrichment at a few stations and other elements (Cr, Cu, Pb, Th, Zn) shown as background levels in all stations. Degrees of contamination in this study were calculated base on concentrations of six elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn). TAR 11 station can be categorized as very high degree of contamination with degree of contamination value of 43.2. TAR 07 station can be categorized as a considerable degree of contamination (contamination value of 16.9). Six stations (TAR 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, 08, 10) showed moderate degree of contamination, with contamination values ranging from 8.0 to 16.0. TAR 02 and TAR 09 stations showed low degree of contaminations (< 8.0). TAR 11 showed very high ecological risk index (R{sub I}) with RI value is 916. TAR 07 and TAR 10 showed moderate ecological risk index with R{sub I} value 263 and 213, respectively. Other stations showed low ecological risk with RI values ranging from 42.3 to 117 (< 150). Very high ecological risk index could give an adverse effect to the benthic organism. The data obtained from the enrichment factor, degree of contamination and ecological risk index provided vital information, which can be used for future comparison. Information from the present study will be useful to the relevant government agencies and authorities in preparing preventive action to control direct discharge of heavy metals from industries, agro-base activities and domestic waste to the rivers and the sea.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Inverter-Dominated Power System Controls

Here, this paper develops a risk-aware controller for grid-forming inverters (GFMs) to minimize large frequency oscillations in GFM inverter-dominated power systems. To tackle the high variability from loads/renewables, we incorporate a mean-variance risk constraint into the classical linear quadratic regulator (LQR) formulation for this problem. The risk constraint aims to bound the time-averaged cost of state variability and thus can improve the worst-case performance for large disturbances. The resulting risk-constrained LQR problem is solved through the dual reformulation to a minimax problem, by using a reinforcement learning (RL) method termed as stochastic gradient-descent with max-oracle (SGDmax). In particular, the zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) approach is used to simplify the gradient estimation using simulated system trajectories. Numerical tests conducted on the IEEE 68-bus system have validated the convergence of our proposed SGDmax for GFM model and corroborate the effectiveness of the risk constraint in improving the worst-case performance while reducing the variability of the overall control cost.

Frequency control↗

DOE OSTI2015

Perceptions of risk among households in two Australian coastal communities

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall, the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Moreover, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A structural description of the evolution of stakeholders and risk communication in the Department of Energy's defense nuclear facilities: Historical perspective, major stakeholders, and external events

Regulators and policymakers are routinely challenged with explaining complex concepts concerning risk. Part of the challenge is helping external and internal stakeholders to understand the context behind risk-related information and decisions. Here, this paper will describe the historical evolution of the safety and regulatory framework for an important category in the nuclear industry—defense nuclear facilities owned and operated by the US Department of Energy. In parallel with describing this evolution, three major events which occurred external to the complex of defense nuclear facilities will be summarized, and their impact on the maturation of the Department's safety and regulatory framework will be discussed. Finally, integrated with these two threads of discussion will be a chronicle of the changing set of involved organizations and the expanding set of external stakeholders involved in risk decisions—and therefore, the risk communications ecosystem surrounding defense nuclear facilities. It will be noted that this system was once describable as a classic “iron triangle,” but now has progressed to a complex network of federal and state organizations, numerous congressional committees, and expanding sets of external stakeholders. It is hoped that a comprehensive discussion of the context of risk assessment in the defense nuclear facilities complex—addressing historical insights, organizational evolution, and the maturing structure of regulation—will provide enhanced opportunities for building trust and understanding in this complex environment.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Wildfire Risk and Promoting Equity through Optimal Configuration of Networked Microgrids

As climate change increases the risk of large-scale wildfires, wildfire ignitions from electric power lines are a growing concern. To mitigate the wildfire ignition risk, many electric utilities de-energize power lines to prevent electric faults and failures. These preemptive power shutoffs are effective in reducing ignitions, but they could result in wide-scale power outages. Advanced technology, such as networked microgrids, can help reduce the size of the resulting power outages; however, even microgrid technology might not be sufficient to supply power to everyone, thus forcing hard questions about how to prioritize the provision of power among customers. In this paper, we present an optimization problem that configures networked microgrids to manage wildfire risk while maximizing the power served to customers; however, rather than simply maximizing the amount of power served in kilowatts, our formulation also considers the ability of customers to cope with power outages, as measured by social vulnerability, and it discourages the disconnection of particularly vulnerable customer groups. To test our model, we leverage a synthetic but realistic distribution feeder, along with publicly available social vulnerability indices and satellite-based wildfire risk map data, to quantify the parameters in our optimal decision-making model. Our case study results demonstrate the benefits of networked microgrids in limiting load shed and promoting equity during scenarios with high wildfire risk.

distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2013

Network Effects of Risk Behavior Change Following Prophylactic Interventions

We formulated a network-based model to understand how risk behavior change in conjunction with failure of prophylactic interventions can lead to unintended outcomes where ‘‘less (intervention) is more (effective).’’ Our model captures the distinction between one- and two-sided risk behavior change. In one-sided situations (e.g. influenza/H1N1) it is sufficient for either individual in an interaction to exhibit risk behavior change whereas in two-sided situations (e.g. AIDS/HIV) it is necessary for both individuals in the interaction to exhibit risk behavior change, for a potential transmission of the disease. A central discovery is that this phenomenon occurs at differing levels of intervention coverage depending upon the ‘‘sidedness’’ of the interaction. We find that for one-sided interactions, sufficiently high vaccination coverage is necessary for mitigating the effects of risk behavior; for two-sided interactions, it is essential to combine prophylactic treatments with programs aimed at reducing risky behavior. Furthermore, again dependent on the ‘‘sidedness,’’ targeting highly connected nodes can be strictly worse than uniformly random interventions at the same level of coverage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

2023 Risk Management Plan and Register for Low-Power WEC for Non-Grid Applications

This is an updated risk management plan and risk register for the design, build and test of a novel, remote, low-power wave energy converter (WEC) for non-grid applications. This Columbia Power Technologies project seeks to develop a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. The testing location for this prototype is the U.S. Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) in Kaneohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i. Detailed in the Risk Management Plan document is a Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMEC) that systematically identifies all potential failure modes and their effects on the system. Risk registers for major subsystems were completed according to the methodology described in the Risk Management Plan and are also included here.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2017

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO 2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO 2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO 2 /brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a large number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗