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NASA NTRS2018

Results from ORACLES-2016: Observed Biomass Burning Aerosol Properties over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean and the Relationship to Meteorology

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning (BB) smoke plumes overlying persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers an excellent natural laboratory to make the observations necessary to understand the complexities of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The first field deployment of the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign was conducted in September of 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. During this deployment, two NASA aircraft (a P-3 and an ER-2) were flown with a suite of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and meteorological instruments for remote-sensing and in-situ observations. In this talk, I will first present results from an intercomparison of the different instrument retrievals for the 2016 flights, with a specific focus on the measures of aerosol absorption. In ORACLES, data collected by eight different instrument teams are used to derive aerosol properties over this region by independent methods. We focus on the single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of the relative absorption versus total extinction by aerosols, as the main comparable property between all methods. I will also discuss comparisons of the retrieved aerosol absorption parameters, as well as the agreement and the variability seen between different instruments, and spatially over the study region. Another important factor in understanding aerosol radiative effects is how the magnitude of these effects may be modified by meteorological conditions. I will next describe observations collected from the P-3 aircraft (from near-surface up to 6-7 kilometers) which show a strong correlation between the in-situ pollution indicators (carbon monoxide and aerosol properties) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. This condition is seen to persist over all flights, with minimal detrainment during advection from the continental source. In exploring the potential causal factors behind and implications of this relationship, we see indications that convective dynamics over the continent likely contribute to this elevated signal, but neither meteorological reanalysis nor trajectory analysis fully capture the magnitude and vertical structure of the observed elevated signal. Finally, I will discuss the radiative implications of the observed correlations, a topic of ongoing analysis in ORACLES: understanding the mechanisms which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength is important to quantifying the radiative effects (direct and semi-direct) of biomass burning aerosol in the region.

Pistone, Kristina↗
NASA NTRS2018

Analyzing the Relationship between Tracking and Covariance for Satellite Collision Avoidance

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed with over 150,000 Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) received for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the three year period of March 2015 through February 2018. The analysis performed demonstrates the relationship between the covariance of a secondary object and the amount of tracks it receives, as a function of Time to Closest Approach (TCA). The examination indicates that higher tracking frequencies result in lower uncertainties inclusively from the time the data is screened up until TCA. Further investigation displays the impacts of how additional observations of secondary objects lower their position uncertainties and what period of time prior to TCA convergence of the covariance can be expected depending on how well the objects are tracked. Data points from several recent EOS High Interest Events (HIEs) are used to exemplify this analysis.

Collision Avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development Of FIAT-Based Parametric Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships For NASA's Multi-Mission Earth Entry Concept

An integrated tool called the Multi Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry Descent and Landing (M-SAPE) is being developed as part of NASAs In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) program. Part of M-SAPEs development requires the formulation of mass estimating relationships (MERs) to determine the vehicle's Thermal Protection System (TPS) material and required thickness for safe Earth entry. The objective of this study was to develop MERs using simple correlations that were non-ITAR and matched as accurately as possible NASAs high-fidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT ). These MERs would be a first-estimate for feasibility studies; it is understood that higher-fidelity modeling like FIAT would be necessary once a proposed trajectory was down-selected. The trajectory space for these MERS consisted of 840 different trajectories, and a materials heating limit was the main constraint for an allowable trajectory. MERs for the vehicle fore body included the ablating materials Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA ) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the backshell the materials were Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA ), Acusil II, SLA-561V, and LI-900. The MERFIAT ratio indicates MERs are accurate to within 14 percent (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER can under-predict TPS thickness is 18.7 percent of FIAT prediction. This poster focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

thermal protection system↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inter-relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers

The inter-relationship between subtropical western–central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980–2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag–correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4–0.5 with significance at the 5 percent level. Both observations and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that the positive STWCPSST anomaly and subsequent planetary-scale wave propagation act to increase the Arctic upper-level geopotential heights and temperatures in the following season. This response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. Connected with this atmospheric response, SIC and surface albedo decrease with an increase in the surface net shortwave flux over the Beaufort Sea. Examination of the surface energy balance (radiative and turbulent fluxes) reveals that surplus energy that can heat the surface increases over the Arctic, enhancing the SIC reduction.

SST↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Relationship Of Size Distributions To Spectral (300 - 700 Nm) Extinction Parameterization Of Ambient In Situ Aerosols Measured During FIREX-AQ And The Influence Of Aerosol Composition

Hyperspectral (300 - 700 nm, 0.7 nm resolution) aerosol extinction spectra were measured at seven fires in six states in the western United States during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign in July and August 2019. Obtained using an in situ aerosol sampling method, these spectra are directly comparable to other in situ aerosol measurements such as size distribution and composition. A previous deployment of the in situ Spectral Aerosol Extinction (SpEx) instrument that measured fine mode aerosols (50% size cut of 1.3 µm particle diameter) around the Korean peninsula showed that over this spectral range 2nd order polynomials provided a better fit to the logarithmically transformed spectra than linear fits (representative of Ångström exponents). The two fit parameters (a1, a2) of the polynomials are related to the classic Ångström exponent but provide additional information via their two-dimensional parameter space. The previous work was limited by the lack of commensurate size distribution information. Here, using the FIREX-AQ spectra set it is possible to expand on the previous analysis in three specific ways: 1) size distribution information is available to further elucidate how size distribution maps into (a1, a2) space, 2) the sampled size distributions include larger particles than the Korean study, and 3) the FIREX-AQ data set exhibits smoke-related spectral features in the UV part of the spectrum that are not present in background air nor were they observed previously in the Korean study. The UV spectral features are particularly intriguing as they likely arise from the absorption component of the extinction measurement and therefore may be related to composition. The relationships between the ambient in situ aerosol size distributions, the extinction spectra, and composition will be presented.

Carolyn Jordan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Relationship Between Social Factors and Government Survey Nonresponse

In a previous study, we explored the relationship between economic and political factors and survey refusal, and noted the importance to collect or otherwise obtain measures that will help us understand more about the social aspect of the social-political-economic construct of survey nonresponse. Recently, we had the opportunity to collect such measures as part of the Census Tracking Survey. The Tracking Survey was launched in September 2019 and concluded in June 2020. It was a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that tracked public awareness of the 2020 Census. Participants were asked about a variety of questions, including questions about social engagement and empathy, both possible measures of one’s social environment and hence one’s attitude towards participating in a government survey. To our knowledge, empathy has not been considered as factor of survey nonresponse. We propose that social factors such as these play an important role in the decision to participate in a survey. Using the Tracking Survey data, we built a logistic regression model, with plan to participate/participated in the 2020 Census as the dependent variable, and known and suspected factors of survey participation as independent variables. We found that social engagement and empathy were both important factors of participating in the Census.

Luke J. Larsen↗
NASA NTRS1997

Current Understanding of Magnetic Storms: Storm/Substorm Relationships

This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerabel amount of controversy and addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes.

Magnetic↗
NASA NTRS2021

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensorimotor Predictors: Examining the Relationship Between Measures of Post-Landing Sensorimotor Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to Earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study is to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on sensorimotor functional tasks. To date, we have recruited fifteen astronauts who returned from the International Space Station on Soyuz and participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography within one day following long-duration spaceflight. We are specifically utilizing a combination of three quantitative post-flight functional task outcomes(relative to pre-flight baselines): tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography, along with a subjective self-rating of post-flight decrements and recovery. The recovery from fall is performed with eyes open on a stable support, allowing the use of vestibular, visual and proprioceptive feedback for task performance. In contrast, the dynamic posturography measures are performed with eyes closed on asway-referenced unstable support, requiring reliance on vestibular feedback for task performance. Tandem walk is performed on a stable surface with eyes open and eyes closed. Fourteen of the 15 subjects performed the field tests. These were nominally performed during three timepoints on the first postflight day, while posturography was performed only once during the third time point after direct return to JSC. More than 20% were unable to complete the initial field testing in the medical tent, while all participants completed testing during the third time point at JSC. As expected, there was considerable variability among all performance outcome measures, with more variability post-flight relative to preflight. Given the variability in all post-flight outcomes, we have been examining the relationships in performance across tasks. While there is a strong association within tests obtained at different landing daytime points, our preliminary findings suggest that by R+24 hrs performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. This underscores the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. We expect that further examining specific behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic sensorimotor biomarkers with post-flight functional task performance will improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

S J Wood↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensorimotor Predictors: Examining the Relationship Between Measures of Post-Landing Sensorimotor Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to Earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study is to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on sensorimotor functional tasks. To date, we have recruited fifteen astronauts who returned from the International Space Station on Soyuz and participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography within one day following long-duration spaceflight. We are specifically utilizing a combination of three quantitative post-flight functional task outcomes(relative to pre-flight baselines): tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography, along with a subjective self-rating of post-flight decrements and recovery. The recovery from fall is performed with eyes open on a stable support, allowing the use of vestibular, visual and proprioceptive feedback for task performance. In contrast, the dynamic posturography measures are performed with eyes closed on asway-referenced unstable support, requiring reliance on vestibular feedback for task performance. Tandem walk is performed on a stable surface with eyes open and eyes closed. Fourteen of the 15 subjects performed the field tests. These were nominally performed during three timepoints on the first post flight day, while posturography was performed only once during the third time point after direct return to JSC. More than 20% were unable to complete the initial field testing in the medical tent, while all participants completed testing during the third time point at JSC. As expected, there was considerable variability among all performance outcome measures, with more variability post-flight relative to preflight. Given the variability in all post-flight outcomes, we have been examining the relationships in performance across tasks. While there is a strong association with in tests obtained at different landing daytime points, our preliminary findings suggest that by R+24 hrs performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. This underscores the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. We expect that further examining specific behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic sensorimotor biomarkers with post-flight functional task performance will improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

Yiri De Dios↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exploring the Relationship Between Temperature Forecast Errors and Earth System Variables

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasts, from two weeks up to a season, can help reduce costs and impacts related to weather and corresponding extremes. The quality of weather forecasts has improved considerably in recent decades as models represent more details of physical processes, and they benefit from assimilating comprehensive Earth observation data as well as increasing computing power. However, with ever–growing model complexity, it becomes increasingly difficult to pinpoint weaknesses in the forecast models’ process representations which is key to improving forecast accuracy. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of observation–based ecological, hydrological and meteorological variables to study their potential for explaining temperature forecast errors at the weekly time scale. For this purpose, we compute Spearman correlations between each considered variable and the forecast error obtained from the ECMWF subseasonal–to–seasonal (S2S) reforecasts at lead times of 1–6 weeks. This is done across the globe for the time period 2001–2017. The results show that temperature forecast errors globally are most strongly related with climate–related variables such as surface solar radiation and precipitation, which highlights the model’s difficulties in accurately capturing the evolution of the climate–related variables during the forecasting period. At the same time, we find particular regions in which other variables are more strongly related to forecast errors. For instance, in central Europe, eastern North America and southeastern Asia, vegetation greenness and soil moisture are relevant, while in western South America and central North America, circulation–related variables such as surface pressure relate more strongly with forecast errors. Overall, the identified relationships between forecast errors and independent Earth observations reveal promising variables on which future forecasting system development could focus by specifically considering related process representations and data assimilation.

Temperature↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stratigraphic Relationships of the Western Delta and Crater Floor in Jezero Crater From Rimfax Gpr Observations.

One of the most fundamental questions about the geology of Jezero prior to the arrival of Mars 2020 Perseverance rover was the relative sequence of emplacement of the western delta and the adjacent crater floor terrain. Based on orbital evidence, some authors favored delta formation to post-date crater floor emplacement, though crater floor material appears to exhibit embaying relationships in other areas. An older crater floor would also be inconsistent with the crater floor material consisting of lake or eroded delta sediments, which would be syn- or post-depositional with the delta.

P. S. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2023

Upper Arctic Ocean Properties and Relationships with Sea Ice in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

While current-generation CMIP and OMIP models have clear biases in their upper Arctic Ocean hydrography, it is less clear how these biases impact the models' ability to simulate the observed Arctic sea ice mean state and trends. In this study we seek to quantify cross-relationship between sea ice and ocean states in CMIP6 historical simulations and identify common model behaviors. Multi-model mean (MMM) simulations exhibit accelerated changes in the ice and ocean system since the late 20th century. Underlying the MMM is strong inter-model variation in the simulated ice and ocean mean states and their temporal variability including trends. Despite such inter-model differences, all models show a similar ratio between sea ice reduction and upper ocean warming such that models with higher ocean warming also have higher SIE reduction and vice versa. Our results also highlight the urgent needs of reliable Arctic Ocean observations or data products in order to better contextualize modeling results.

Upper Arctic Ocean↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Springtime SEA Air Is Consistently Both Smoky and Humid, but This Relationship (and Its Radiative Effects) Varies Spatially and Seasonally

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) sees a consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward in the free troposphere, where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the SEA stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region during three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. A previous study discussed the spatial characteristics of the water vapor-BB plume observations in the September 2016 flight data and their degree of agreement with several atmospheric reanalyses and models. In the present work, we first discuss atmospheric chemistry, structure, and aerosol results from all three ORACLES deployments to place these results in a broader seasonal context. Despite the differing locations and season of each deployment, we show that there continues to be good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and large-scale reanalyses, specifically the ECMWF ERA5 and CAMS reanalyses. Other reanalyses (specifically NASA's MERRA-2) preserved the observed correlation between meteorology and biomass burning conditions, but, as was seen for 2016, was frequently displaced spatially relative to the observations. The CAMS reanalysis performs better with water vapor than with CO. Results comparing CAMS column AOD to the field measurements show slight overestimates, consistent with previous analysis, but the good relationship observed between AOD and inlet-based aerosol extinction demonstrates this metric's utility to broader studies. The good ERA5/CAMS/ORACLES agreement allows us to next examine the multi-year seasonal patterns and trends beyond the three ORACLES deployment periods. Looking at seven years of reanalysis data for the BB season, we find distinct variations between each month/deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions through the BB season. Using k-means clustering of these climatological reanalysis, we identify six canonical atmospheric profile types of varying total atmospheric humidity and vertical structure and describe their changing incidence spatially and throughout the season, and six analogous profile types for carbon monoxide, allowing us to characterize the atmospheric structure of both vapor and BB over time throughout the SEA region. This classification will allow for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗