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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial modeling of near subsurface temperatures of the contiguous United States for assessment of materials degradation

Abstract Understanding subsurface temperature variations is crucial for assessing material degradation in underground structures. This study maps subsurface temperatures across the contiguous United States for depths from 50 to 3500 m, comparing linear interpolation, gradient boosting (LightGBM), neural networks, and a novel hybrid approach combining linear interpolation with LightGBM. Results reveal heterogeneous temperature patterns both horizontally and vertically. The hybrid model performed best achieving a root mean square error of 2.61 °C at shallow depths (50–350 m). Model performance generally decreased with depth, highlighting challenges in deep temperature prediction. State-level analyses emphasized the importance of considering local geological factors. This study provides valuable insights for designing efficient underground facilities and infrastructure, underscoring the need for depth-specific and region-specific modeling approaches in subsurface temperature assessment.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1984

A Crustal Structure Study of South America

Variations in the average crustal thickness of the South American platform were determined by measuring fundamental mode Rayleigh wave dispersion between nine pairs of South American WWSSN seismograph stations and inverting the measurements to obtain average shear wave velocity-depth models across the platform. Additional models were derived from the Rayleigh wave dispersion data previously measured over eastern South America. Both sets of models were interpreted in terms of average crustal thickness and average crustal shear wave velocity. The results obtained were depicted in a contour map of crustal thickness. Average values for seismic velocities in the crust and upper mantle were calculated and compared with maps of regional gravity models, MAGSAT magnetic anomalies, and major tectonic features. The correlations and relationships discovered are discussed.

Renbarger, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energetic Electrons Accelerated and Trapped in a Magnetic Bottle above a Solar Flare Arcade

Where and how flares efficiently accelerate charged particles remains an unresolved question. Recent studies revealed that a “magnetic bottle” structure, which forms near the bottom of a large-scale reconnection current sheet above the flare arcade, is an excellent candidate for confining and accelerating charged particles. However, further understanding its role requires linking the various observational signatures to the underlying coupled plasma and particle processes. Here we present the first study combining multiwavelength observations with data-informed macroscopic magnetohydrodynamics and particle modeling in a realistic eruptive flare geometry. The presence of an above-the-loop-top magnetic bottle structure is strongly supported by the observations, which feature not only a local minimum of magnetic field strength but also abruptly slowing plasma downflows. It also coincides with a compact above-the-loop-top hard X-ray source and an extended microwave source that bestrides the flare arcade. Spatially resolved spectral analysis suggests that nonthermal electrons are highly concentrated in this region. Our model returns synthetic emission signatures that are well matched to the observations. The results suggest that the energetic electrons are strongly trapped in the magnetic bottle region due to turbulence, with only a small fraction managing to escape. The electrons are primarily accelerated by plasma compression and facilitated by a fast-mode termination shock via the Fermi mechanism. Our results provide concrete support for the magnetic bottle as the primary electron acceleration site in eruptive solar flares. They also offer new insights into understanding the previously reported small population of flare-accelerated electrons entering interplanetary space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Science synergism study for EOS on evolution of desert surfaces

The effectiveness of EOS data as a basis for the study of desert surfaces' evolution is presently evaluated for both long and short term geomorphic evolution. Attention is given to the usefulness of such sensor systems planned for EOS as MODIS for regional vegetation distribution/variability monitoring, HIRIS for visible-near IR observations, TIMS for lithological identification, HMMR and SSMI for soil characteristics, LASA for atmospheric profiles, SAR for surface roughness, ALT for two-dimensional topography, ACR for the calibration of imaging sensors, and ERBE for climate modeling and regional surface albedo variation determinations.

Farr, Tom G.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The evolution of a coronal streamer prior to mass ejection

A model describing the quasi-static evolution of a coronal helmet streamer as it is inflated with excess mass was developed. The model produces a sequence of magnetostatic equilibria for a magnetic field configuration that includes a current sheet in the equatorial plane as well as distributed volume currents. The equilibrium solutions are given as Legendre series, and the height at which the current sheet starts is adjusted iteratively to maintain constant flux in the closed-field region. The model was fit to SMM coronagraph/polarimeter observations showing the slow growth of a coronal streamer prior to its disruption in association with an eruptive prominence and mass ejection on August 18, 1980. The results suggest that the early phase of this event is consistent with the quasi-static evolution of the corona in response to the slow addition of mass to the closed-field region of the streamer.

Wolfson, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summary of 2020 edge-plasma modeling for FNSFand plans for 2021

This year, following the study of liquid-wall options, our edge-plasma modeling has returned to analyzing issues associated with a solid tungsten-wall, Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF)-size device, primarily using the 2D UEDGE plasma/neutral transport code. The focus is to predict plasma/neutral heat and particle fluxes to various wall components and determine the concentration of injected and wall-sputtered impurities that reach the core plasma region. Our models have been advanced in a number of areas compared to the initial modeling done in the 2017 timeframe: this year we include each individual charge-state of impurity ions instead of assuming a fixed concentration of impurities relative to the deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel plasma, including the interaction between inner and outer divertor legs. Here edge fueling of the impurity and pumping in the private-flux region is incorporated. Increasingly detailed atomic-physics rate files for impurity radiation have been compared, as well as the role of molecules. The impact of spatial variation of the turbulence-driven radial plasma transport is considered to contribute to the understanding of the heat-flux-limit effects of choosing a double-null or single-null divertor configuration. Detailed plasma/neutral wall fluxes, densities, and temperatures have been provided to the ERO group for their more detailed studies of wall sputtering and near-surface impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tertiary structure and thermal history of the Harquahala and Buckskin Mountains, west central Arizona - Implications for denudation by a major detachment fault system

A regional geometrical model for the Whipple-Buckskin-Bullard detachment system (referred to as the Whipple detachment system) is developed. Mineral separates from samples collected in the Harquahala and Buckskin mountains, which lie in the footwall of the Whipple detachment system, are analyzed by the Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectrum technique to determine the cooling history of the mountain range and the age of the metamorphism. Based on the cooling history of the mountains and the bedrock geology of the Harquahala Mountains, the initial geometry of the Whipple detachment system is reconstructed. Next, estimates of slip on the detachment fault and extension within the upper plate terrane are used to determine the regional pattern of extension. The data on the cooling history, structural geometry, and extension pattern are combined into a geometrical model which reconciles the geological data, according to which the breakaway zones represented by the Harquahala Mountains were unroofed by movement on the gently to moderately dipping segment of a great normal fault system as it cut through the upper crust.

Richard, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of 6 weeks of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

The goal of this research is the continued development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. This work involves a combination of modeling and analysis efforts involving 4DDA datasets and simulations from the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) coordinate model and the GEOS GCM.

Johnson, Donald R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaStar: Stellar parameter determination with continuum-supplemented full-spectrum fitting

We present a stellar parameter catalog built to accompany the MaStar Stellar Library, which is a comprehensive collection of empirical, medium-resolution stellar spectra. We constructed this parameter catalog by using a multicomponent χ 2 fitting approach to match MaStar spectra to models generated by interpolating the ATLAS9-based BOSZ model spectra. The total χ 2 for a given model is defined as the sum of components constructed to characterize narrow-band features of observed spectra (e.g., absorption lines) and the broadband continuum shape separately. Extinction and systematics due to flux calibration were taken into account in the fitting. The χ 2 distribution for a given region of model space was sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, the data from which were then used to extract atmospheric parameter estimates (T eff , log g, [Fe/H], and [α/Fe]), their corresponding uncertainties, and direct extinction measurements. Two methods were used to extract parameters and uncertainties: one that accepts the MCMC’s prescribed minimum-χ 2 result, and one that uses Bayesian inference to compute a likelihood-weighted mean from the χ 2 distribution sampled by the MCMC. Results were evaluated for internal consistency using repeat observations where available and by comparing them with external data sets (e.g., APOGEE-2 and Gaia DR2). Our spectral-fitting exercise reveals possible deficiencies in current theoretical model spectra, illustrating the potential power of MaStar spectra for helping to improve the models. This paper represents an update to the parameters that were originally presented with SDSS-IV DR17. The MaStar parameter catalog containing our BestFit results is available on the SDSS-IV DR17 website as part of version 2 of the MaStar stellar parameter value-added catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

A device model for the tandem junction solar cell

A conceptual device model has been developed to explain operation of the tandem junction cell (TJC) when back contacts only are used. Operation and parameters of the cell are explained by transistor action. Experimental observations are presented which confirm that current is collected for carrier generation in the front uncontacted n(plus) region. The model should be useful as a guideline to optimize the TJC by application of transistor design principles.

Matzen, W. T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling secondary organic aerosol formation from volatile chemical products

Abstract. Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are commonly used consumer and industrial items that are an important source of anthropogenic emissions. Organic compounds from VCPs evaporate on atmospherically relevant timescales and include many species that are secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. However, the chemistry leading to SOA, particularly that of intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), has not been fully represented in regional-scale models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, which tend to underpredict SOA concentrations in urban areas. Here we develop a model to represent SOA formation from VCP emissions. The model incorporates a new VCP emissions inventory and employs three new classes of emissions: siloxanes, oxygenated IVOCs, and nonoxygenated IVOCs. VCPs are estimated to produce 1.67 µg m−3 of noontime SOA, doubling the current model predictions and reducing the SOA mass concentration bias from −75 % to −58 % when compared to observations in Los Angeles in 2010. While oxygenated and nonoxygenated intermediate-volatility VCP species are emitted in similar quantities, SOA formation is dominated by the nonoxygenated IVOCs. Formaldehyde and SOA show similar relationships to temperature and bias signatures, indicating common sources and/or chemistry. This work suggests that VCPs contribute up to half of anthropogenic SOA in Los Angeles and models must better represent SOA precursors from VCPs to predict the urban enhancement of SOA.

Pennington, Elyse A. (ORCID:0000000317362342)↗

NASA NTRS1999

Development of Corrections for Biomass Burning Effects in Version 2 of GEWEX/SRB Algorithm

The objectives of this project were: (1) To incorporate into an existing version of the University of Maryland Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) model, optical parameters of forest fire aerosols, using best available information, as well as optical properties of other aerosols, identified as significant. (2) To run the model on regional scales with the new parametrization and information on forest fire occurrence and plume advection, as available from NASA LARC, and test improvements in inferring surface fluxes against daily values of measured fluxes. (3) Develop strategy how to incorporate the new parametrization on global scale and how to transfer modified model to NASA LARC.

Pinker, Rachel T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗