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At least 991 records · Page 55

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Phase evolution during conventional and reactive flash sintering of (Mg,Ni,Co,Cu,Zn)O via in situ X-ray diffraction

Reactive flash sintering (RFS) enables the simultaneous synthesis and sintering of ceramics and has been shown to affect the reaction pathway of different materials. Herein, in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) is used to investigate the (Mg,Ni,Co,Cu,Zn)O entropy-stabilized oxide formation during: (i) conventional heating and (ii) RFS under current rate-controlled mode. The same reaction pathway is verified in both instances: the starting rock-salt (RS), spinel (Co 3 O 4 ), tenorite (CuO), and wurtzite (ZnO) phases transform into a single RS phase with a (1 1 1) to (2 0 0) intensity ratio of 0.67, consistent with a random distribution of the cations into the structure. Pt lattice peak shift from the XRD patterns is used as standard to monitor the sample surface temperature, revealing a strong endothermic reaction during the RS single-phase formation (Pt peaks shift toward higher angles while increasing sample temperature/current density). Furthermore, in RFS, the single-phase RS structure is formed in just 60 s at a furnace temperature of 600°C and a current rate of 220 mA mm -2 /min. Therefore, RFS greatly accelerates the synthesis of (Mg,Ni,Co,Cu,Zn)O, however, it does not play a role in the reaction pathway for this material formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Digital generation of alongwind velocity field

A procedure is described for generating simulation samples of the two-dimensional fluctuating component of the wind velocity acting on the surface of a paraboloidal antenna. A numerical example shows that a simulation sample can be generated rapidly by computer with results that appear reasonable. To complete the performance evaluation of the antenna surface for the random wind velocity, it would be necessary to combine the velocity field with pressure coefficients that can be established for the antenna surface. Loading coefficients could be derived readily from this combination and then standard procedures could be applied for the evaluation of the antenna rms measure of performance in response to the loading.

Shinozuka, M.↗

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Agarwal, G. C.↗

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

Young, G. E.↗

Chemical classification of iron meteorites. XI - Multi-element studies of 38 new irons and the high abundance of ungrouped irons from Antarctica

Concentrations of 14 elements in the metal of 38 iron meteorites and a pallasite are reported. Three samples are paired with previously classified irons, raising the number of well-classified, independent iron meteorites to 598. Several of the new irons are from Antarctica. Of 24 independent irons from Antarctica, eight are ungrouped, a much higher fraction than that among all classified irons. The difference is probably related to the fact that the median mass of Antarctic irons is about two orders of magnitude smaller than that of non-Antarctic irons. Smaller meteoroids may tend to sample a larger number of asteroidal source regions, perhaps because small meteoroids tend to have higher ejection velocities or because they have random-walked a greater increment of orbital semimajor axis away from that of the parent body.

Wasson, John T.↗

Studies of solar type stars

Satellite observations show a change of 0.1 percent in solar irradiance over the past decade. The question arises as to whether larger changes in irradiance may occur over century time scales. Researchers approached this question by looking at changes in surface magnetism, since the satellite observations also show that irradiance and surface magnetism are correlated. To obtain information on possible variations in surface magnetism over century-long intervals, researchers looked at records of surface magnetism spanning up to 20 years for a sample of 74 stars of solar type, i.e., of similar age and mass to the sun. The histories of these stars, observed in random phases of their long-term variability, give a snapshot at any one time of the behavior of a solar-type star over long periods of time. Evidence on Maunder Minimum phases and levels of magnetic activity in these solar-type stars are compared with information on solar magnetism. Implications for solar irradiance changes are discussed.

Baliunas, Sallie↗

Perceptually Lossless Wavelet Compression

The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) decomposes an image into bands that vary in spatial frequency and orientation. It is widely used for image compression. Measures of the visibility of DWT quantization errors are required to achieve optimal compression. Uniform quantization of a single band of coefficients results in an artifact that is the sum of a lattice of random amplitude basis functions of the corresponding DWT synthesis filter, which we call DWT uniform quantization noise. We measured visual detection thresholds for samples of DWT uniform quantization noise in Y, Cb, and Cr color channels. The spatial frequency of a wavelet is r 2(exp -1), where r is display visual resolution in pixels/degree, and L is the wavelet level. Amplitude thresholds increase rapidly with spatial frequency. Thresholds also increase from Y to Cr to Cb, and with orientation from low-pass to horizontal/vertical to diagonal. We propose a mathematical model for DWT noise detection thresholds that is a function of level, orientation, and display visual resolution. This allows calculation of a 'perceptually lossless' quantization matrix for which all errors are in theory below the visual threshold. The model may also be used as the basis for adaptive quantization schemes.

Watson, Andrew B.↗

Visibility of Wavelet Quantization Noise

The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) decomposes an image into bands that vary in spatial frequency and orientation. It is widely used for image compression. Measures of the visibility of DWT quantization errors are required to achieve optimal compression. Uniform quantization of a single band of coefficients results in an artifact that is the sum of a lattice of random amplitude basis functions of the corresponding DWT synthesis filter, which we call DWT uniform quantization noise. We measured visual detection thresholds for samples of DWT uniform quantization noise in Y, Cb, and Cr color channels. The spatial frequency of a wavelet is r 2(exp)-L , where r is display visual resolution in pixels/degree, and L is the wavelet level. Amplitude thresholds increase rapidly with spatial frequency. Thresholds also increase from Y to Cr to Cb, and with orientation from low-pass to horizontal/vertical to diagonal. We describe a mathematical model to predict DWT noise detection thresholds as a function of level, orientation, and display visual resolution. This allows calculation of a "perceptually lossless" quantization matrix for which all errors are in theory below the visual threshold. The model may also be used as the basis for adaptive quantization schemes.

Watson, Andrew B.↗

Exoplanet Detection Synenergy Between Gaia and the WFIRST Coronagraph

Future astrometric detections of exoplanets from the Gaia mission will augment and improve the sample of targets accessible to the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) on WFIRST. We assessed the joint detection sensitivity of Gaia and WFIRST by modeling random planet populations around nearby (d less than 20 pc), bright (V less than 6) stars, and applying nominal detection thresholds for each mission. Our analysis suggests that only a small number of the new planet detections from Gaia will be favorable for spectroscopic characterization by WFIRST CGI: 1-3 planets, depending on the assumed planet population model. The target stars hosting gas giants detectable to both missions tend to be GK dwarfs with brightness between V = 3-5, and distances within 10 pc. While few in number, these new Gaia-detected exoplanets could be exceptionally valuable targets for WFIRST due to the ability to incorporate astrometric mass estimates into the spectral retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

Zimmerman, Neil T.↗

Powder River Basin Water Resources: Mapping Russian Olive in the Powder River Basin to Inform Invasive Species Management

Since its introduction in the late 1800s, Elaeagnus augustifolia (Russian olive) has become a widespread invasive shrub that poses a threat to native riparian species in the United States by competing with native riparian plants for space and resources. To date, limited information on the distribution of Russian olive in the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming have hampered management efforts and decision making. Here, we detect and model the distribution of Russian Olive using field surveys, ocular sampling, and variables from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) using the Random Forest algorithm. We derived topographic, spectral, and hydrological variables from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, and SRTM to utilize as model inputs. The team was able to successfully create a spectral Russian olive detection map for the Powder River Basin (RMSE =15.44%, R2 = 0.6482). The team also examined change in stream channel geomorphology from 1984-2020 in a time-series analysis using Landsat visible imagery and the RivMap MATLAB package and found little change. Our results will help our partners at the Powder River County Weed Board, Gay Ranch, United States Geological Survey, and University of Northern Colorado to locate and prioritize areas for riparian habitat restoration and to understand the region’s hydrology and geomorphology.

Catherine Buczek↗

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-on Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick​↗

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-On Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick↗

Direct Simulation of Extinction in a Slab of Spherical Particles

The exact multiple sphere superposition method is used to calculate the coherent and incoherent contributions to the ensemble-averaged electric field amplitude and Poynting vector in systems of randomly positioned nonabsorbing spherical particles. The target systems consist of cylindrical volumes, with radius several times larger than length, containing spheres with positional configurations generated by a Monte Carlo sampling method. Spatially dependent values for coherent electric field amplitude, coherent energy flux, and diffuse energy flux, are calculated by averaging of exact local field and flux values over multiple configurations and over spatially independent directions for fixed target geometry, sphere properties, and sphere volume fraction. Our results reveal exponential attenuation of the coherent field and the coherent energy flux inside the particulate layer and thereby further corroborate the general methodology of the microphysical radiative transfer theory. An effective medium model based on plane wave transmission and reflection by a plane layer is used to model the dependence of the coherent electric field on particle packing density. The effective attenuation coefficient of the random medium, computed from the direct simulations, is found to agree closely with effective medium theories and with measurements. In addition, the simulation results reveal the presence of a counter-propagating component to the coherent field, which arises due to the internal reflection of the main coherent field component by the target boundary. The characteristics of the diffuse flux are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a model based on the diffusion approximation of the radiative transfer theory.

spheres↗

NbTaV_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution ternary alloys niobium-tantalum-vanadium (Nb-Ta-V). The first-principle code that has been used to run the calculations is the closed-source Vienna Ab-Initio Simulation Package (VASP). The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 8. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 10,500 randomized atomic structures over 105 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on NERSC-Perlmutter using the VASP 6.3.2. The VASP calculations for every atomic structure have been performed in 2 main steps: 1. Starting from an ideal body-centered-cubic (BCC) structure, geometry optimization with low precision has been executed to perform a preliminary optimization of the atomic structure. The output for this calculations is available in the files 0.CONTCAR, 0.OUTCAR, rlx1.out. 2. Using the atomic structure resulting from the preliminary geometry optimization, a second geometry optimization has been performed using normal precision. The output for this calculations is available in the files CONTCAR, OUTCAR, rlx2.out, vaspout.h5, and vasprun.xml. Every chemical composition sampled across the composition range in the dataset has its own directory. The convention used to name the directories for ternary alloys is AXBYCZ, where A, B, and C refer to the constituents, and X, Y, and Z are positive integers that represent the number of atoms for each constituent and their values still sum up to 128. Each atomic structure associated with a specific chemical composition has its own sub-directory within the directory of the corresponding chemical composition. The sub-directories for each atomic structure for each chemical composition are named 'case-*', where * is a positive integer that spans all the values from 1 through 100, extremes included. The files contained in each sub-directory 'case-*' for each atomic structure are as follows: 1. INCAR: input file that contains various parameters and settings for controlling the behavior of the electronic structure calculations 2. 0.POSCAR: input file that defines the atomic structure of a system 3. 0.CONTCAR: output file that provides the atomic positions and cell parameters after the first geometry optimization has been run with the precision variable set to PREC=Low in the INCAR file 4. 0.OUTCAR: output file that contains detailed information about the progress of a calculation after the first geometry optimization has been run with the precision variable set to PREC=Low in the INCAR file 5. rlx1.out: file with diagnostic information about the execution of the first geometry optimization with precision variable set to PREC=Low in the INCAR file 6. POSCAR: input file that defines the atomic structure of a system after the first geometry optimization has been run at low precision. This represents the input for the second geometry optimization run with the precision variable set to PREC=Normal in the INCAR file 7. CONTCAR: output file that provides the atomic positions and cell parameters after the second geometry optimization has been run with the precision variable set to PREC=Normal in the INCAR file 8. OUTCARL: output file that contains detailed information about the progress of a calculation after the second geometry optimization has been run with the precision variable set to PREC=Normal in the INCAR file 9. rlx2.out: file with diagnostic information about the execution of the second geometry optimization with precision variable set to PREC=Normal in the INCAR file 10. vaspout.h5: hierarchical HDF5 file containing the inputs and outputs of a VASP calculation. To analyze the data in this file we recommend using py4vasp. This file is only produced if the VASP version used is compiled with HDF5 support 11. vasprun.xml: contains similar information to OUTCAR, but in an xml format. This research is sponsored by the Artificial Intelligence Initiative as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. This work used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725, under Directorate Discretionary awards MAT025 (Materials Science) and LRN026 (Machine Learning), and INCITE award MAT201. This work also used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231, under award ERCAP0025216.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Density Dependence of the Phases of the v = 1 Integer Quantum Hall Plateau in Low Disorder Electron Gases

Recent magnetotransport measurements in low-disorder electron systems confined to GaAs/AlGaAs samples reveal that the v = 1 integer quantum Hall plateau is broken into three distinct regions. These three regions are associated with two phases with different types of bulk localization: the Anderson insulator is due to random quasiparticle localization, and the integer quantum Hall Wigner solid is due to pinning of a stiff quasiparticle lattice. Universal properties of the v = 1 plateau are highlighted: the structure of the stability diagram, the nonmonotonic dependence of the activation energy on the filling factor, and the alignment of features of the activation energy with features of the stability regions of the different phases are found to be similar in three samples spanning a wide range of electron densities. Quantitative differences between the samples are also discussed, such as the dependence of the onset temperature and the activation energy of the integer quantum Hall Wigner solid on the electron density. The findings provide insights into the localization behavior along the v = 1 integer quantum Hall plateau in the low disorder regime.

Anderson insulator↗

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strontium isoscape of sub-Saharan Africa allows tracing origins of victims of the transatlantic slave trade

Abstract Strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) analysis with reference to strontium isotope landscapes (Sr isoscapes) allows reconstructing mobility and migration in archaeology, ecology, and forensics. However, despite the vast potential of research involving 87 Sr/ 86 Sr analysis particularly in Africa, Sr isoscapes remain unavailable for the largest parts of the continent. Here, we measure the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios in 778 environmental samples from 24 African countries and combine this data with published data to model a bioavailable Sr isoscape for sub-Saharan Africa using random forest regression. We demonstrate the efficacy of this Sr isoscape, in combination with other lines of evidence, to trace the African roots of individuals from historic slavery contexts, particularly those with highly radiogenic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios uncommon in the African Diaspora. Our study provides an extensive African 87 Sr/ 86 Sr dataset which includes scientifically marginalized regions of Africa, with significant implications for the archaeology of the transatlantic slave trade, wildlife ecology, conservation, and forensics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗