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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1971

Crime prediction modeling

A study of techniques for the prediction of crime in the City of Los Angeles was conducted. Alternative approaches to crime prediction (causal, quasicausal, associative, extrapolative, and pattern-recognition models) are discussed, as is the environment within which predictions were desired for the immediate application. The decision was made to use time series (extrapolative) models to produce the desired predictions. The characteristics of the data and the procedure used to choose equations for the extrapolations are discussed. The usefulness of different functional forms (constant, quadratic, and exponential forms) and of different parameter estimation techniques (multiple regression and multiple exponential smoothing) are compared, and the quality of the resultant predictions is assessed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

Demonstration of the range over which the Langley Research Center digital computer charring ablation program (CHAP) can be used with confidence: Comparisons of CHAP predictions and test data for three ablation materials

Comparisons of ablation calculations with the charring ablation computer code and ablation test data are presented over a wide range of environmental conditions in air for three materials: low-density nylon phenolic, Avcoat 5026-39HC/G, and a filled silicon elastomer. Heat fluxes considered range from over 500 Btu/sq ft-sec to less than 50 Btu/sq ft-sec. Pressures range from 0.5 atm to .004 atm. Enthalpies range from about 2000 Btu/lb to 18000 Btu/lb. Predictions of recession, pyrolysis penetration, and thermocouple responses are considered. Recession predictions for nylon phenolic are good as steady state is approached, but strongly transient cases are underpredicted. Pyrolysis penetrations and thermocouple responses are very well predicted. Recession amounts for Avcoat and silicone elastomer are less well predicted, although high heat flux cases near steady state are fairly satisfactory. Pyrolysis penetrations and thermocouple responses are very well predicted.

Moyer, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Microbial burden prediction model for unmanned planetary spacecraft

The technical development of a computer program for predicting microbial burden on unmanned planetary spacecraft is outlined. The discussion includes the derivation of the basic analytical equations, the selection of a method for handling several random variables, the macrologic of the computer programs and the validation and verification of the model. The prediction model was developed to (1) supplement the biological assays of a spacecraft by simulating the microbial accretion during periods when assays are not taken; (2) minimize the necessity for a large number of microbiological assays; and (3) predict the microbial loading on a lander immediately prior to sterilization and other non-lander equipment prior to launch. It is shown that these purposes not only were achieved but also that the prediction results compare favorably to the estimates derived from the direct assays. The computer program can be applied not only as a prediction instrument but also as a management and control tool. The basic logic of the model is shown to have possible applicability to other sequential flow processes, such as food processing.

Hoffman, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Comparisons of Predictions of the XB-70-1 Longitudinal Stability and Control Derivatives with Flight Results for Six Flight Conditions

Preliminary correlations of flight-determined and predicted stability and control characteristics of the XB-70-1 reported in NASA TN D-4578 were subject to uncertainties in several areas which necessitated a review of prediction techniques particularly for the longitudinal characteristics. Reevaluation and updating of the original predictions, including aeroelastic corrections, for six specific flight-test conditions resulted in improved correlations of static pitch stability with flight data. The original predictions for the pitch-damping derivative, on the other hand, showed better correlation with flight data than the updated predictions. It appears that additional study is required in the application of aeroelastic corrections to rigid model wind-tunnel data and the theoretical determination of dynamic derivatives for this class of aircraft.

Wolowicz, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment

Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

Fehrman, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Noncompact source effect on the prediction of tone noise from a fan rotor

A comparison is made between the conventional compact source prediction for airfoil sound radiation and the rigorous prediction based on distributed sources along the airfoil chord. The theoretical analysis performed is for a single airfoil and cascaded airfoils immersed in a sinusoidally varying convected gust field. The pressure field around a single airfoil in supersonic gust flows is also studied. In subsonic flows the phase change of unsteady lift along the chord of a single airfoil reduces the sound radiation significantly in the upstream direction and increases the downstream radiation compared to the compact source prediction. In supersonic flows the compact source prediction gives substantial error in the region just behind the Mach wedge originating from the leading edge, while it approaches the noncompact source results far downstream from the airfoil. In the case of cascaded airfoils the compact source prediction overestimates the upstream radiation by as much as 20 dB depending on frequency and interblade phase.

Kaji, S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Aeroacoustics: Acoustic wave propagation; Aircraft noise prediction; Aeroacoustic instrumentation

The papers in this volume deal with recent research into acoustic-wave propagation through the atmosphere and progress in aeroacoustic instrumentation, facilities, and test techniques. Topics include the propagation of aircraft noise over long distances in the lower atmosphere, measured effects of turbulence on the rise time of a weak shock, sound scattering from atmospheric turbulence, saturation effects associated with sound propagation in a turbulent medium, and a computer model of the lightning-thunder process. Other papers discuss the development of a computer system for aircraft noise prediction; aircraft flyover noise measurements; and theories and methods for the prediction of ground effects on aircraft noise propagation, for the prediction of airframe aerodynamic noise, for turbine noise prediction, and for combustion noise prediction. Attention is also given to the use of Hartmann generators as sources of high-intensity sound in a large absorption flow-duct facility, an outdoor jet noise facility, factors in the design and performance of free-jet acoustic wind tunnels, and the use of a laser shadowgraph for jet noise diagnosis.

Schwartz, I. R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Interim prediction method for turbine noise

A turbine noise prediction method for interim use in the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program is selected. The method predicts the level, directivity, and one-third octave band spectra of far field turbine noise as a function of engine parameters. The selection results from a review of turbine noise data and prediction methods available in the open literature. It is concluded that the state-of-the-art turbine noise prediction capability is primitive and that the selected method represents only a temporary interim approach. Recommendations are made on research requirements.

Krejsa, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Helicopter external noise prediction and correlation with flight test

Mathematical analysis procedures for predicting the main and tail rotor rotational and broadband noise are presented. The aerodynamic and acoustical data from Operational Loads Survey (OLS) flight program are used for validating the analysis and noise prediction methodology. For the long method of rotational noise prediction, the spanwise, chordwise, and azimuthwise airloading is used. In the short method, the airloads are assumed to be concentrated at a single spanwise station and for higher harmonics an airloading harmonic exponent of 2.0 is assumed. For the same flight condition, the predictions from long and short methods of rotational noise prediction are compared with the flight test results. The short method correlates as well or better than the long method.

Gupta, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The prediction of lightning-induced voltages on metallic and composite aircraft

Various government agencies have put forth effort to enable the prediction of what lightning current will do to aircraft avionic systems. Ongoing and future efforts of predicting avionic voltages and currents caused by electromagnetic fields external to the aircraft are illustrated. The Intrasystem Analysis Program (IAP) was put to use to predict lightning-induced voltages on avionic systems. Presently funded programs are investigating the modification nonmetallic composite materials will cause to the metallic IAP program predictions. The various factors involved in designing prediction techniques are discussed.

Birken, J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A jet exhaust noise prediction procedure for inverted velocity profile coannular nozzles

Acoustic model tests have demonstrated that significant noise suppression can be obtained from inverted velocity profile coannular nozzles. An acoustic prediction procedure was developed for inverted velocity profile coannular nozzles that can be used to predict SPL spectra as a function of nozzle geometry and flow conditions. In the development of this prediction procedure, the noise spectrum at a given angle was decomposed into four noise components: a low frequency mixing noise component, a high frequency mixing noise component, an outer stream shock noise component, and an inner stream shock noise component. The physics of the inverted velocity flow field development was used to formulate noise generation models. Scaling laws for each noise component were defined based on these models. Comparisons of predictions from this procedure with experimental data were conducted to verify the prediction procedure.

Larson, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Comparisons between observed and predicted cosmogenic noble gases in lunar samples

Comparisons are made between cosmogenic production rates and isotopic ratios predicted on the basis of nuclear systematics with those observed in well-documented lunar samples. Although some significant differences are found, the agreement in general is surprisingly good. The predicted production rates for Ar-38 and Xe-126 agree reasonably well with observation but the predicted rate for Ne-21 appears to be too high; in most cases the predicted rate for Kr-83 agrees to within 50%, although some larger differences are apparent. There are some prominent cases in which predicted isotopic compositons differ from observation: Kr-78/Kr-83 trends in the wrong sense with the Zr/Sr ratio; Xe-124/Xe-126 is too large by about 13%; Xe-128/Xe-126 is too small by about 6%; Xe-130/Xe-126 is too low by 30-40%.

Hohenberg, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation of approximate methods for the prediction of noise shielding by airframe components

An evaluation of some approximate methods for the prediction of shielding of monochromatic sound and broadband noise by aircraft components is reported. Anechoic-chamber measurements of the shielding of a point source by various simple geometric shapes were made and the measured values compared with those calculated by the superposition of asymptotic closed-form solutions for the shielding by a semi-infinite plane barrier. The shields used in the measurements consisted of rectangular plates, a circular cylinder, and a rectangular plate attached to the cylinder to simulate a wing-body combination. The normalized frequency, defined as a product of the acoustic wave number and either the plate width or cylinder diameter, ranged from 4.6 to 114. Microphone traverses in front of the rectangular plates and cylinders generally showed a series of diffraction bands that matched those predicted by the approximate methods, except for differences in the magnitudes of the attenuation minima which can be attributed to experimental inaccuracies. The shielding of wing-body combinations was predicted by modifications of the approximations used for rectangular and cylindrical shielding. Although the approximations failed to predict diffraction patterns in certain regions, they did predict the average level of wing-body shielding with an average deviation of less than 3 dB.

Ahtye, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Transionospheric propagation predictions

The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

Klobucher, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity

The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.

P S Mcintosh↗
NASA NTRS1980

Stratospheric ozone decrease due to chlorofluoromethane photolysis - Predictions of latitude dependence

A two-dimensional model is used to predict the 1990 reduction in ozone due to the chlorine compounds formed by chlorofluoromethane (CFM) photolysis when the CFM release rate is held constant at the 1975 value. The predicted globally averaged ozone reduction of 3.5% is similar to that predicted by one-dimensional models that did not include chlorine nitrate chemistry, and used lower values for the reactions rates of NO + HO2 yielding NO2 + OH and O3 + HO2 yielding OH + 2O2. When the 5.7 ppbv increase in chlorine compounds predicted by one-dimensional models to occur under steady-state conditions is simulated by the two-dimensional model, a 26% decrease in atmospheric ozone is predicted. The latitude dependence of the ozone reduction is discussed in terms of the relevant photochemical reaction and transport. The chemical reactions that most strongly influence the meridional dependence of the ozone depletion are identified as those associated with the reactions of chlorine monoxide and atomic oxygen, the recombination of ozone and atomic oxygen, and the photodissociation of molecular oxygen.

Borucki, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

NASA progress in aircraft noise prediction

Langley Research Center efforts to develop a methodology for predicting the effective perceived noise level (EPNL) produced by jet-powered CTOL aircraft to an accuracy of + or - 1.5 dB are summarized with emphasis on the aircraft noise prediction program (ANOPP) which contains a complete set of prediction methods for CTOL aircraft including propulsion system noise sources, aerodynamic or airframe noise sources, forward speed effects, a layered atmospheric model with molecular absorption, ground impedance effects including excess ground attenuation, and a received noise contouring capability. The present state of ANOPP is described and its accuracy and applicability to the preliminary aircraft design process is assessed. Areas are indicated where further theoretical and experimental research on noise prediction are needed. Topics covered include the elements of the noise prediction problem which are incorporated in ANOPP, results of comparisons of ANOPP calculations with measured noise levels, and progress toward treating noise as a design constraint in aircraft system studies.

Raney, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Prediction of Earth rotation and polar motion

Based on the analysis of the polar motion behavior, the possibility of predicting polar motion up to one year in advance was found. Comparing these predicted polar coordinates with the observed ones (smoothed), the root mean square (rms) of the differences is about 0.02 seconds. The differences of the relative polar motion are much smaller. For any time interval of 20 to 30 days throughout the whole year, the rms of the relative polar motion differences is about 0.01 second. Compared with the best available VLBI results (from 1977 to 1980), the rms of pred. to obs. is 0.013 seconds, and the relative rms (for time intervals less than two months) is 0.008 seconds (here the observed data is unsmoothed). It appears that 80 to 90% of the polar motion is composed of the stable, predictable Chandler and annual terms. The UT1-UTC has more complicated changes than polar motion making it difficult to find a satisfactory method of long term prediction. So far the rms prediction error is 0.0023 s for up to 30 days.

Zhu, S. Y.↗