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At least 991 records · Page 55

Observations and numerical simulations of precipitation development is seeded clouds over the Sierra Nevada

The evolution of precipitation in seeded wintertime orographically induced convective and stratiform clouds with embedded convection were studied using in situ observations and particle growth and trajectory models. The particle growth model of Heymsfield embedded in a kinematic flow field representative of the Sierra barrier was used to study the ice particle growth by diffusion, accretion and subsequent fall trajectories. The particles observed by the aircraft were classified into habits. The growth of observed particles were compared with the model predicted evolution. Using the aggregation model of Heymsfield, the observation of formation of aggregates is less than 10 minutes was verified. The key findings of this study are presented.

Prasad, N.↗

Modeling of chemical vapor infiltration for ceramic composites reinforced with layered, woven fabrics

A homogeneous model is developed for the chemical vapor infiltration by one-dimensional diffusion into a system of layered plies consisting of woven tows containing bundles of filaments. The model predictions of the amount of deposition and the porosity of the sample as a function of time are compared with the predictions of a recent nonhomogeneous model with aligned holes formed by the weave. The nonhomogeneous model allows for diffusion through the aligned holes, into the spaces between plies, and into the gaps around filaments; i.e., three diffusion equations apply. Relative to the nonhomogeneous results, the homogeneous model underestimates the amount of deposition, since the absence of holes and spaces allows earlier occlusion of gaps around filaments and restricts the vapor infiltration.

Chung, Gui-Yung↗

Canopy Cover Predictions using Ground Observations and Remotely Sensed Data

Maps of vegetation status are needed at many scales, from the field level to monitor ecosystem condition to the global level to understand the carbon cycle. Status is quantified by such variables as leaf area index, biomass, and fraction of canopy cover. Current methods of predicting vegetation variables use remote sensing data to provide a spatially exhaustive data source. In a study in western Montana, several hundred ground observations made by the US Forest Service on tenth-acre conifer plots were used to develop aspatial regression and geostatistical prediction models. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from Landsat Thematic Mapper images were used as ancillary data. These models were then used to predict canopy cover at unsampled locations in a 97 square kilometer region on the boundary of the Flathead National Forest and the Bob Marshall Wilderness. Independent data from two dates six years apart were used for validation. Given the assumption that actual canopy cover remained relatively unchanged within this time period, partial validation can be achieved by measuring the correspondence of the two maps. This criterion results in ranking the aspatial regression maps as less accurate than the geostatistically generated maps. The geostatistical approach emphasizes ground measurements more heavily than does aspatid regression. Geostatistical simulations of canopy cover also provide a means of describing uncertainty about the patterns of canopy cover.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

Alaska at the Crossroads of Migration: Space Based Ornithology

Understanding bird migration on a global scale is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Revolutionary advances in remote sensing now provide us with near real-time measurements of atmospheric and land surface conditions at high spatial resolution over entire continents. We use spatially-explicit, individual based bird migration models driven by numerical weather prediction models of atmospheric conditions, dynamic habitat suitability maps derived from remotely sensed land surface conditions, biophysiological models, and biological field data to simulate migration routes, timing, energy budgets, and survival of individual birds and populations. Long-distance migratory birds travel annually between breeding grounds in Alaska and wintering grounds in Latin Amierica. Approximately 25% of these species are potential vectors of Avian Influenza. Alaska is at the crossroads of Asian and New World migratory flyways and is likely to be a point of introduction of Asian H5N1 AI into the western hemisphere. If/when an infected bird is detected, a pressing question will be where was this bird several days ago, and where is it likely to go after it was released from the survey site? Answers to such questions will increase effectiveness of AI surveillance and mitigation measures. From a conservation perspective, Alaska's diverse landscape provides breeding sites for many migrants, and climatic and land surface changes along migratory flyways in the western hemisphere may reduce bird survival and physical condition upon arrival at Alaskan breeding territories, success and migrant populations.

Deppe, Jill↗

Material Damping Experiments at Cryogenic Temperatures

A unique experimental facility has been designed to measure damping of materials at cryogenic temperatures. The test facility pays special attention to removing other sources of damping in the measurement by avoiding frictional interfaces, decoupling the test specimen from the support system, and by using a non-contacting measurement device; Damping data is obtained for materials (AI, GrEp, Be, Fused Quartz), strain amplitudes (less than 10-6 ppm), frequencies (20Hz-330Hz) and temperatures (20K-293K) relevant to future precision optical space missions. The test data shows a significant decrease in viscous damping at cryogenic temperatures and can be as low as 10-4%, but the amount of the damping decrease is a function of frequency and material. Contrary to the other materials whose damping monotonically decreased with temperature, damping of Fused Quartz increased substantially at cryo, after reaching a minimum at around l50 K. The damping is also shown to be insensitive to strain for low strain levels. At room temperatures, the test data correlates well to the analytical predictions of the Zener damping model. Discrepancies at cryogenic temperatures between the model predictions and the test data are observed.

cryogenic↗

Modular Open System Architecture for Reducing Contamination Risk in the Space and Missile Defense Supply Chain

To combat contamination of physical assets and provide reliable data to decision makers in the space and missile defense community, a modular open system architecture for creation of contamination models and standards is proposed. Predictive tools for quantifying the effects of contamination can be calibrated from NASA data of long-term orbiting assets. This data can then be extrapolated to missile defense predictive models. By utilizing a modular open system architecture, sensitive data can be de-coupled and protected while benefitting from open source data of calibrated models. This system architecture will include modules that will allow the designer to trade the effects of baseline performance against the lifecycle degradation due to contamination while modeling the lifecycle costs of alternative designs. In this way, each member of the supply chain becomes an informed and active participant in managing contamination risk early in the system lifecycle.

Seasly, Elaine↗

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

Alkali element depletion by core formation and vaporization on the early Earth

The depletion of Na, K, Rb, and Cs in the Earth's upper mantle and crust relative to their abundances in chondrites is a long standing problem in geochemistry. Here we consider two commonly invoked mechanisms, namely core formation, and vaporization, for producing the observed depletions. Our models predict that a significant percentage of the Earth's bulk alkali element inventory is in the core (30 percent for Na, 52 percent for K, 74 percent for Rb, and 92 percent for Cs). These predictions agree with independent estimates from nebular volatility trends and (for K) from terrestrial heat flow data. Our models also predict that vaporization and thermal escape during planetary accretion are unlikely to produce the observed alkali element depletion pattern. However, loss during the putative giant impact which formed the Moon cannot be ruled out. Experimental, observational, and theoretical tests of our predictions are also described. Alkali element partitioning into the Earth's core was modeled by assuming that alkali element partitioning during core formation on the aubrite parent body (APB) is analogous to that on the early Earth. The analogy is reasonable for three reasons. First, the enstatite meteorites are the only known meteorites with the same oxygen isotope systematics as the Earth-Moon system. Second, the large core size of the Earth and the V depletion in the mantle requires accretion from planetesimals as reduced as the enstatite chondrites. Third, experimental studies of K partitioning between silicate and metal plus sulfide show that more K goes into the metal plus sulfide at higher pressures than at one atmosphere pressure. Thus partitioning in the relatively low pressure natural laboratory of the APB is a good guide to alkali elemental partitioning during the growth of the Earth.

Lodders, K.↗

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 1: Summary of findings

Atmospheric analysis and prediction models of varying (grid) resolution were developed. The models were tested using real observational data for the purpose of assessing the impact of grid resolution on short range numerical weather prediction. The discretionary model procedures were examined so that the computational viability of SEASAT data might be enhanced during the conduct of (future) sensitivity tests. The analysis effort covers: (1) examining the procedures for allowing data to influence the analysis; (2) examining the effects of varying the weights in the analysis procedure; (3) testing and implementing procedures for solving the minimization equation in an optimal way; (4) describing the impact of grid resolution on analysis; and (5) devising and implementing numerous practical solutions to analysis problems, generally.

Kesel, P. G.↗

A Deployable 4 Meter 180 to 680 GHz Antenna for the Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder

The Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder (SMLS) is a space-borne heterodyne radiometer which will measure pressure, temperature and atmospheric constituents from thermal emission between 180 and 680 GHz. SMLS, planned for the Global Atmospheric Composition Mission of the NRC Decadal Survey, uses a novel toric Cassegrain antenna to perform both elevation and azimuth scanning. These provide better horizontal and temporal resolution and coverage than were possible with elevation-only scanning at typical Low-Earth orbit spacing in the two previous MLS satellite instruments. Development of the SMLS antenna was the focus of a 2006 Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program whose phase II culminated in the fabrication and thermal stability testing of a composite demonstration model of the SMLS primary reflector. This reflector has the full 4m height and 1/3 the width planned for flight. An Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) titled "A deployable 4 Meter 180 to 680 GHz antenna for the Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder" continues development of the SMLS antenna with the study of 5 topics: 1) detailed mathematical modeling of the antenna patterns from which we simulate geophysical parameter retrievals in order to establish FOV performance requirements; 2) thorough correlation of finite element model predictions with measurements made on the SBIR reflector. We will again measure deformations of this reflector, under more flight-like thermal gradients, using higher precision metrology techniques available in a new large-aperture facility at JPL; 3) fabrication of a full-width primary reflector whose asbuilt surface figure will better meet the figure requirements of SMLS than did the SBIR reflector; 4) integration of the primary with other reflectors, and with residual front ends built in a 2007 IIP, in a breadboard antenna; and finally 5) RF testing of the breadboard on a Near Field Range at JPL. We report on significant progress in 3 areas of the current IIP: development of the mathematical model to predict SMLS antenna patterns and their application in a preliminary set of geophysical retrievals; the correlation between surface deformation predicted by finite element models and measurement in the 2009 isothermal stability tests of the SBIR, with implications for the thermal gradient testing to be performed at JPL; and aspects of the conceptual design of the full-width primary reflector to be fabricated and tested in the 2nd and 3rd years of the IIP.

heterodyne radiometer↗

Refinement of a limit cycle oscillator model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker

In 1990, Kronauer proposed a mathematical model of the effects of light on the human circadian pacemaker. Although this model predicted many general features of the response of the human circadian pacemaker to light exposure, additional data now available enable us to refine the original model. We first refined the original model by incorporating the results of a dose response curve to light into the model's predicted relationship between light intensity and the strength of the drive onto the pacemaker. Data from three bright light phase resetting experiments were then used to refine the amplitude recovery characteristics of the model. Finally, the model was tested and further refined using data from an extensive phase resetting experiment in which a 3-cycle bright light stimulus was presented against a background of dim light. In order to describe the results of the four resetting experiments, the following major refinements to the original model were necessary: (i) the relationship between light intensity (I) and drive onto the pacemaker was reduced from I1/3 to I0.23 for light levels between 150 and 10,000 lux; (ii) the van der Pol oscillator from the original model was replaced with a higher-order limit cycle oscillator so that amplitude recovery is slower near the singularity and faster near the limit cycle; (iii) a direct effect of light on circadian period (tau x) was incorporated into the model such that as I increases, tau x decreases, which is in accordance with "Aschoff's rule". This refined model generates the following testable predictions: it should be difficult to enhance normal circadian amplitude via bright light; near the critical point of a type 0 phase response curve (PRC) the slope should be steeper than it is in a type 1 PRC; and circadian period measured during forced desynchrony should be directly affected by ambient light intensity.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗

Candle Flames in Non-Buoyant Atmospheres

This paper addresses the behavior of a candle flame in a long-duration, quiescent microgravity environment both on the space Shuttle and the Mir Orbiting Station. On the Shuttle, the flames became dim blue after an initial transient where there was significant yellow (presumably soot) in the flame. The flame lifetimes were typically less than 60 seconds. The safety-mandated candlebox that contained the candle flame inhibited oxygen transport to the flame and thus limited the flame lifetime. The flames on the Mir were similar, except that the yellow luminosity persisted longer into the flame lifetime because of a higher initial oxygen concentration, The Mir flames burned for as long as 45 minutes. The difference in the flame lifetime between the Shuttle and Mir flames was primarily the redesigned candlebox that did not inhibit oxygen transport to the flame. In both environments, the flame intensity and the height-to-width ratio gradually decreased as the ambient oxygen content in the sealed chamber slowly decreased. Both sets of experiments showed spontaneous, axisymmetric flame oscillations just prior to extinction. The paper also presents a numerical model of a candle flame. The formulation is two-dimensional and time-dependent in the gas phase with constant specific heats, thermal conductivity and Lewis number (although different species can have different Lewis numbers), one-step finite-rate kinetics, and gas-phase radiative losses from CO2 and H2O. The treatment of the liquid/wick phase assumes that the, fuel evaporates from a constant diameter sphere connected to an inert cone. The model predicts a steady flame with a shape and size quantitatively similar to the Shuttle and Mir flames. The computation predicts that the flame size will increase slightly with increasing ambient oxygen mole fraction. The model also predicts pre-extinction flame oscillations if the rate of decrease in ambient oxygen is small enough, such as that which would occur for a flame burning in a sealed ambient.

Dietrich, D. L.↗

Validating GOES Instrument Thermal Deformations

Comparison of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) instrument thermal model predictions with on-orbit data shows that the models capture the observed temperature and misalignment trends. Lack of precise knowledge as to spacecraft pointing precludes such comparison with instrument pointing predictions. Based on the models, thermally induced instrument attitude variation will dominate GOES N-Q Image Motion Compensation (IMC). Errors due to day-to-day changes in the attitude profiles are predicted to be under 10 microradians except for rapid scans where disturbances may reach 30 microradians.

Harter, Peter↗

Sub/seasonal forecasts with a coupled interactive aerosol model in GEOS-S2S

The NASA/Goddard Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) prediction model includes an interactive aerosol model that allows for prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PM2.5, as well as improved meteorological forecasts under certain conditions. A model intercomparison of the impact of interactive aerosol is under way, and results from retrospective forecasts with and without interactive aerosol were performed using GEOS-S2S as part of this intercomparison. Results from the GEOS-S2S system will be shown, demonstrating useful skill in AOD and PM2.5 and an example of the impact on a "forecast of opportunity". These results will serve as motivation for the participation of CESM in this interactive aerosol model intercomparison.

S2S↗

The Impact of Truth Surrogate Variance on Quality Assessment/Assurance in Wind Tunnel Testing

Minimum data volume requirements for wind tunnel testing are reviewed and shown to depend on error tolerance, response model complexity, random error variance in the measurement environment, and maximum acceptable levels of inference error risk. Distinctions are made between such related concepts as quality assurance and quality assessment in response surface modeling, as well as between precision and accuracy. Earlier research on the scaling of wind tunnel tests is extended to account for variance in the truth surrogates used at confirmation sites in the design space to validate proposed response models. A model adequacy metric is presented that represents the fraction of the design space within which model predictions can be expected to satisfy prescribed quality specifications. The impact of inference error on the assessment of response model residuals is reviewed. The number of sites where reasonably well-fitted response models actually predict inadequately is shown to be considerably less than the number of sites where residuals are out of tolerance. The significance of such inference error effects on common response model assessment strategies is examined.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Enhanced Core Noise Modeling for Turbofan Engines

This report describes work performed by MTC Technologies (MTCT) for NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) under Contract NAS3-00178, Task Order No. 15. MTCT previously developed a first-generation empirical model that correlates the core/combustion noise of four GE engines, the CF6, CF34, CFM56, and GE90 for General Electric (GE) under Contract No. 200-1X-14W53048, in support of GRC Contract NAS3-01135. MTCT has demonstrated in earlier noise modeling efforts that the improvement of predictive modeling is greatly enhanced by an iterative approach, so in support of NASA's Quiet Aircraft Technology Project, GRC sponsored this effort to improve the model. Since the noise data available for correlation are total engine noise spectra, it is total engine noise that must be predicted. Since the scope of this effort was not sufficient to explore fan and turbine noise, the most meaningful comparisons must be restricted to frequencies below the blade passage frequency. Below the blade passage frequency and at relatively high power settings jet noise is expected to be the dominant source, and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the accuracy of the jet noise model recently developed by MTCT for NASA under Contract NAS3-00178, Task Order No. 10. At lower power settings the core noise became most apparent, and these data corrected for the contribution of jet noise were then used to establish the characteristics of core noise. There is clearly more than one spectral range where core noise is evident, so the spectral approach developed by von Glahn and Krejsa in 1982 wherein four spectral regions overlap, was used in the GE effort. Further analysis indicates that the two higher frequency components, which are often somewhat masked by turbomachinery noise, can be treated as one component, and it is on that basis that the current model is formulated. The frequency scaling relationships are improved and are now based on combustor and core nozzle geometries. In conjunction with the Task Order No. 10 jet noise model, this core noise model is shown to provide statistical accuracy comparable to the jet noise model for frequencies below blade passage. This model is incorporated in the NASA FOOTPR code and a user s guide is provided.

Stone, James R.↗