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At least 991 records · Page 55

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Correcting implicit solvation at metal/water interfaces through the incorporation of competitive water adsorption

Conventional continuum solvation models are ubiquitous in computational catalysis, including for describing metal/water interfaces, which are relevant to both solution-phase heterogeneous catalysis and electrocatalysis. Nonetheless, we find that such continuum models qualitatively fail to describe both the adsorption free energy and conformational preference for many organic molecules at such interfaces, largely due to the failure of continuum models to incorporate the role of competitive water adsorption. We develop a simple phenomenological model that accounts for competitive water adsorption and show that the model, when used in conjunction with continuum solvation, provides a dramatic improvement in the description of both adsorption and conformational preference. The model is also extended to additionally incorporate the influence of applied potential at the electrode surface, thus facilitating computationally efficient applications to scenarios including electrocatalysis.

Chemistry↗

ENVISAT Land Surface Processes

This is a progress report of the 2nd phase of the project ENVISAT- Land Surface Processes, which has a 3-year scope. In this project, preparative research is carried out aiming at the retrieval of land surface characteristics from the ENVISAT sensors MERIS and AATSR, for assimilation into a system for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Where in the 1st phase a number of first shot experiments were carried out (aiming at gaining experience with the retrievals and data assimilation procedures), the current 2nd phase has put more emphasis on the assessment and improvement of the quality of the retrieved products. The forthcoming phase will be devoted mainly to the data assimilation experiments and the assessment of the added value of the future ENVISAT products for NWP forecast skill. Referring to the retrieval of albedo, leaf area index and atmospheric corrections, preliminary radiative transfer calculations have been carried out that should enable the retrieval of these parameters once AATSR and MERIS data become available. However, much of this work is still to be carried out. An essential part of work in this area is the design and implementation of software that enables an efficient use of MODTRAN(sub 4) radiative transfer code, and during the current project phase familiarization with these new components has been achieved. Significant progress has been made with the retrieval of component temperatures from directional ATSR-images, and the calculation of surface turbulent heat fluxes from these data. The impact of vegetation cover on the retrieved component temperatures appears manageable, and preliminary comparison of foliage temperature to air temperatures were encouraging. The calculation of surface fluxes using the SEBI concept,which includes a detailed model of the surface roughness ratio, appeared to give results that were in reasonable agreement with local measurements with scintillometer devices. The specification of the atmospheric boundary conditions appears a crucial component, and the use of first guess estimates from the RACMO models partially explains the success. Earlier data assimilation experiments with directional surface temperatures have been analysed a bit further and were also compared to results obtained from directly modeling the surface roughness ratio. Results between these calculations and the data assimilation results appeared well comparable, but a full test in which the surface roughness model is allowed to play a free role during the data assimilation process has yet to be carried out. A considerable number of tasks that have yet to be carried out during Phase 3 has been formulated.

vandenHurk, B. J. J. M.↗

Analog Phase Holograms by Electron Beam Lithography

Phase holograms have been created on the surface of a thin film of poly-methyl methacrylate (PMMA, Plexiglas) by direct-write electron beam (E-Beam) lithography. The process involves delivering a patterned exposure dose followed by partial development with a strong developer. The patterned dose derives from arbitrary computer-calculated holograms, which must be corrected for the sensitivity characteristic of the PMMA and for the effective point-spread function of the E-Beam.

phase↗

Detailed in situ ATR-FTIR spectroscopy study of the early stages of C-S-H formation during hydration of monoclinic C3S

The early stages of tricalcium silicate hydration has been studied by in situ ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. A method for data reduction based on background correction and subtraction of spectra of pure components is presented, which makes it possible to describe the kinetic evolution of the calcium silicate hydrate phase upon hydration with great detail. The results obtained are in full agreement with recently reported, detailed solid-state NMR spectroscopy measurements. As ATR-FTIR spectroscopy does not require any isotope enrichment in order to increase the signal intensities and is a widely available technique, we suggest that our study opens up an avenue towards detailed in situ characterization of hydrating cementitious systems and hydrating systems in general.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Atomic resolution coherent x-ray imaging with physics-based phase retrieval

Coherent x-ray imaging and scattering from accelerator based sources such as synchrotrons continue to impact biology, medicine, technology, and materials science. Many synchrotrons around the world are currently undergoing major upgrades to increase their available coherent x-ray flux by approximately two orders of magnitude. The improvement of synchrotrons may enable imaging of materials in operando at the atomic scale which may revolutionize battery and catalysis technologies. Current algorithms used for phase retrieval in coherent x-ray imaging are based on the projection onto sets method. These traditional iterative phase retrieval methods will become more computationally expensive as they push towards atomic resolution and may struggle to converge. Additionally, these methods do not incorporate physical information that may additionally constrain the solution. In this work, we present an algorithm which incorporates molecular dynamics into Bragg coherent diffraction imaging (BCDI). This algorithm, which we call PRAMMol (Phase Retrieval with Atomic Modeling and Molecular Dynamics) combines statistical techniques with molecular dynamics to solve the phase retrieval problem. We present several examples where our algorithm is applied to simulated coherent diffraction from 3D crystals and show convergence to the correct solution at the atomic scale.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantifying the hydration structure of sodium and potassium ions: taking additional steps on Jacob's Ladder

The ability to reproduce the experimental structure of water around the sodium and potassium ions is a key test of the quality of interaction potentials due to the central importance of these ions in a wide range of important phenomena. In this study, we simulate the Na + and K + ions in bulk water using three density functional theory functionals: (1) the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) based dispersion corrected revised Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof functional (revPBE-D3) (2) the recently developed strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional (3) the random phase approximation (RPA) functional for potassium. We compare with experimental X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements to demonstrate that SCAN accurately reproduces key structural details of the hydration structure around the sodium and potassium cations, whereas revPBE-D3 fails to do so. However, we show that SCAN provides a worse description of pure water in comparison with revPBE-D3. RPA also shows an improvement for K + , but slow convergence prevents rigorous comparison. Finally, we analyse cluster energetics to show SCAN and RPA have smaller fluctuations of the mean error of ion–water cluster binding energies compared with revPBE-D3.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dimensional interpolation for metallic hydrogen

In this work, we employ a simple and mostly accurate dimensional interpolation formula using dimensional limits D = 1 and D = ∞ to obtain D = 3 ground-state energy of metallic hydrogen. We also present results describing the phase transitions for different symmetries of three-dimensional structure lattices. The interpolation formula not only predicts fairly accurate energies but also predicts a correct functional form of the energy as a function of the lattice parameters. That allows us to calculate different physical quantities such as the bulk modulus, Debye temperature, and critical transition temperature, from the gradient and the curvature of the energy curve as a function of the lattice parameters. These theoretical calculations suggest that metallic hydrogen is a likely candidate for high temperature superconductivity. The dimensional interpolation formula is robust and might be useful to obtain the energies of complex many-body systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Transition-state correlations for predicting thermochemistry of adsorbates and surface reactions

Estimating thermochemical properties from linear correlations may provide a pathway to circumvent expensive density functional theory (DFT) calculations for quantities such as pre-exponentials and temperature corrections to DFT energies. Here, in this work, we construct thermochemical scaling relations between C 1 –C 6 n-alkanes in the gas phase and adsorbed alkyl chains extending from several transition metal surfaces, and examine changes in the slope and fit between metals and adsorption sites. We subsequently add –OH, –NH 2 , C$=$O, and C$=$C functional groups to the C 1 –C 6 molecules and demonstrate strong linear correlations for thermochemistry across all species. We broaden the correlations to incorporate transition states of C 1 –C 6 n-alkane dehydrogenation reactions, where thermochemistry for computationally prohibitive transition-state calculations can be quickly assessed. Additionally, we rationalize the linearity of thermochemical correlations based on the composition of the homologous series and theoretical assessments. As an application of the correlations, we estimate pre-exponentials for elementary surface reactions of ethane and propane hydrogenolysis on Ru(0001), which is of relevance to plastic hydrogenolysis. Depending on kinetically important steps, entropic contributions may be necessary to include in certain reaction mechanisms; in contrasting examples, entropies are found to be relatively insignificant for ethane hydrogenolysis but pertinent for propane hydrogenolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surveyor Project Final Report: Part 1 - Project Description and Performance, Volume 1

The Surveyor Project planned and conducted seven unmanned lunar missions for which spacecraft were launched between May 1966 and January 1968. Each of the spacecraft was successfully launched with the then newly developed Atlas/Centaur vehicle which utilized for the first time a high-specific-impulse, liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen fueled stage. Five of the spacecraft successfully soft-landed and returned a great quantity of engineering and scientific data on extensive postlanding operations, accomplishing all mission and project objectives. Four of the spacecraft soft-landed at selected mare sites to provide data which were required to support the Apollo Program. The final spacecraft was then successfully used for scientific investigation of a contrasting site in the rugged lunar highlands. Surveyor was a fully attitude-stabilized spacecraft designed to receive and execute a wide variety of earth commands, as well as to perform certain automatic functions including the critical terminal-descent and soft-landing sequences. Significant new and advanced subsystems that were developed and/or used in combination to enable Surveyor to execute the complex terminal phase of flight were: (1) a solid-propellant main retro motor, (2) throttlable liquid-propellant vernier engines (also used for midcourse velocity correction), (3) highly sensitive velocity- and altitude-sensing radars, and (4) an automatic closed-loop guidance and control system. The first Surveyor spacecraft carried a survey television camera which, together with other engineering instrumentation, obtained in-flight and postlanding data. The complement of instruments carried on later missions included various combinations of the following additional devices: (1) a soil mechanics/surface sampler instrument for picking, digging, and handling lunar surface material; (2) an alpha scattering instrument for performing a chemical analysis of the lunar surface material; and (3) magnets attached to the spacecraft for determining magnetic properties of the soil.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory↗

Surveyor Project Final Report: Part 1 - Project Description and Performance, Volume 2

The Surveyor Project planned and conducted seven unmanned lunar missions for which spacecraft were launched between May 1966 and January 1968. Each of the spacecraft was successfully launched with the then newly developed Atlas/Centaur vehicle which utilized for the first time a high-specific-impulse, liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen fueled stage. Five of the spacecraft successfully soft-landed and returned a great quantity of engineering and scientific data on extensive postlanding operations, accomplishing all mission and project objectives. Four of the spacecraft soft-landed at selected mare sites to provide data which were required to support the Apollo Program. The final spacecraft was then successfully used for scientific investigation of a contrasting site in the rugged lunar highlands. Surveyor was a fully attitude-stabilized spacecraft designed to receive and execute a wide variety of earth commands, as well as to perform certain automatic functions including the critical terminal-descent and soft-landing sequences. Significant new and advanced subsystems that were developed and/or used in combination to enable Surveyor to execute the complex terminal phase of flight were: (1) a solid-propellant main retro motor, (2) throttlable liquid-propellant vernier engines (also used for midcourse velocity correction), (3) highly sensitive velocity- and altitude-sensing radars, and (4) an automatic closed-loop guidance and control system. The first Surveyor spacecraft carried a survey television camera which, together with other engineering instrumentation, obtained in-flight and postlanding data. The complement of instruments carried on later missions included various combinations of the following additional devices: (1) a soil mechanics/surface sampler instrument for picking, digging, and handling lunar surface material; (2) an alpha scattering instrument for performing a chemical analysis of the lunar surface material; and (3) magnets attached to the spacecraft for determining magnetic properties of the soil.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory↗

Malfunction of Television Camera Monitor on Command Module

The command module television camera monitor exhibited loss of horizontal synchronization during the initial usage. This condition cleared and performance of the monitor was normal until the press conference telecast during the transearth coast phase. At that time, the monitor had the same horizontal synchronization problem reported during the initial usage. The horizontal hold control adjustment would not correct the condition. The monitor was turned off for approximately 5 minutes, then turned back on, after which the monitor's picture was normal. The loss of horizontal synchronization was most likely caused by either an intermittent condition in the precision voltage regulator circuit assembly in the low voltage power supply, or the shift of the stable range of the horizontal potentiometer setting when warming up after turn-on.

Source record↗

Analysis of longitudinal pilot-induced oscillation tendencies of YF-12 aircraft

Aircraft flight and ground tests and simulator studies were conducted to explore pilot-induced oscillation tendencies. Linear and nonlinear calculations of the integrated flight control system's characteristics were made to analyze and predict the system's performance and stability. The investigations showed that the small-amplitude PIO tendency was caused by the interaction of the pilot with a combination of the aircraft's short-period poles and the structural first bending mode zeros. It was found that the large-amplitude PIO's were triggered by abrupt corrective control actions by the pilot, which caused the stability augmentation system servo to position and rate limit. The saturation in turn caused additional phase lag, further increasing the tendency of the overall system to sustain a PIO.

Smith, J. W.↗

Application of unconnected phase narrowband Delta VLBI to deep space navigation

Unconnected phase narrowband Delta VLBI data strategies are evaluated for enhancing deep space cruise navigation and for rapidly redetermining the spacecraft trajectory after a midcourse correction maneuver. Results of a covariance analysis study are presented for a Jupiter bound spacecraft based on a simulated data strategy consisting of daily 10 minute narrowband scans from two baselines augmented with conventional two way range and Doppler passes. For post-maneuver recovery, the narrowband strategy achieves a factor of two improvement in orbit determination performance. Cruise OD performance is also significantly enhanced due to the ability of the narrowband data to accurately sense the orientation of the orbital plane.

Ellis, J.↗

Maser cavity servo-tuning system

Two collocated, weakly coupled probes, one loop and one dipole, detect the magnetic and electric fields inside a maser cavity. Signals from the probes are compared in phase, and the signal output from the phase detector is applied to a varactor, the reactance of which is coupled into the cavity by a microwave coupler. Alternatively, the varactor may be placed inside the cavity. Any deviation of phase from 90 deg as detected by the phase detector will then produce an error signal that will change the reactance coupled into the resonant cavity to change its reactance, and thus correct its resonance frequency. An alternative to using two probes is to use a single disk probe oriented to detect both the magnetic and electric fields, and thus provide the error signal directly.

Sydnor, R. L.↗

Multiple-Trellis-Coded Modulation

Theoretical gain over simple multiple-phase-shift keying at least 2 to 3 decibels. Multiple-trellis-coded modulation scheme combined with M-ary modulation shows theoretically to yield asymptotic gains in performance over uncoded multiple-phase-shift keying, while employing symmetric multiple-phase-shift signal constellations and avoiding code catastrophe. Suitable for satellite and terrestrial-mobile/satellite communications or other communications requiring burst-error correction. Extended to such higher dimensional modulations as quadrature amplitude modulation.

Divsalar, D.↗

Maneuver Design and Calibration for the Genesis Spacecraft

Genesis is the fifth mission selected as part of NASA's Discovery Program. The objective of Genesis is to collect solar wind samples for a period of approximately two years while in a halo orbit about the Earth-Sun L I point. At the end of this period, the samples are to be returned to a specific recovery point on the Earth for subsequent analysis. This goal has never been attempted before and presents a formidable challenge in terms of mission design and operations, particularly planning and execution of propulsive maneuvers. To achieve a level of cost-effectiveness consistent with a Discovery-class mission, the Genesis spacecraft design was adapted to the maximum extent possible from designs used on earlier missions, such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Stardust, another sample collection mission. The spacecraft design for Genesis is shown. Spin stabilization was chosen for attitude control, in lieu of three-axis stabilization, with neither reaction wheels nor accelerometers included. This precludes closed-loop control of propulsive maneuvers and implies that any attitude changes, including spin changes and precessions, will behave like translational propulsive maneuvers and affect the spacecraft trajectory. Moreover, to minimize contamination risk to the samples collected, all thrusters were placed on the side opposite the sample collection canister. The orientation and characteristics of thrusters are indicated. For large maneuvers (>2.5 m/s), two 5 lbf thrusters will be used for delta v, with precession to the burn attitude, followed by spin-up from 1.6 to 10 rpm before the burn and spin down to 1.6 rpm afterwards, then precession back to the original spin attitude. For small maneuvers (<2.5 m/s), no spin change is needed and four 0.2 lbf thrusters are used for Av. Single or double 360 deg. precession changes are required whenever the desired delta v falls inside the two-way turn circle (about 0.4 m/s) based on the mass properties, spin rate and lever arm lengths based on thruster locations. In such instances, delta v resulting from spacecraft precession cannot be used effectively as a component of the desired delta v, and must therefore be removed by precessing at least one complete revolution around the turn circle. To eliminate cross-track execution errors, a second revolution in the opposite direction would also be performed. This paper will address the design of propulsive maneuvers in light of the aforementioned challenges and other constraints. Maneuver design will be performed jointly by the Navigation Team at JPL and the Spacecraft Team at LMA, based on the process indicated . Typical maneuver timelines will be presented which address considerations introduced by attitude changes. These include nutation, which is introduced by precessing or spinning down and must be given sufficient time to damp out prior to execution of subsequent events, as well as sun and earth pointing constraints, which must be considered to ensure sufficient spacecraft power and to minimize telecommunications interruptions, respectively. The paper will include a description of how individual propulsive maneuvers are resolved into components to account for delta v from translational burns and spacecraft attitude changes required to carry out such maneuvers. Contributions to maneuver delta v arising from attitude changes, based on mass properties for the period just after launch, are indicated. Similar curves will be presented spanning all mission phases from launch through return. A set of closed-form equations for resolving maneuver components, base on a specific delta v required for correction or deterministic changes to the spacecraft trajectory will be presented, as well. In addition to nominal maneuvers, special calibration maneuvers are planned to improve open-loop modeling of maneuvers and to reduce execution errors. Uncalibrated execution errors are indicated. Such errors could be reduced by 50% or more over the course of the mission. Special calibrations are of particular importance for the return leg of the mission, since the sample canister must be returned to a specific location within the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) for mid-air retrieval. An entry angle tolerance of no less than +/- 0.08 deg. is required to achieve this objective. Biasing of the final return maneuvers coupled with a specific maneuver mode to use a series of well-characterized spin changes to effect these maneuvers is part of the current Genesis baseline mission plan. Another important objective of calibrations is to better characterize precession maneuvers. Such maneuvers are part of most propulsive maneuvers, but are also required periodically to maintain sun-pointing for power or daily during solar-wind pointing during collection periods. Although relatively small, such maneuvers will have a significant cumulative impact on orbit determination, particularly in the halo portion of the mission. The current mission design also calls for three stationkeeping maneuvers during each halo orbit of approximately six months duration. These stationkeeping maneuvers may be sufficiently small that single or double 360 deg. precession changes may be required. Because there are no accelerometers on board the spacecraft, calibration can only be performed with the aid of ground-based radiometric tracking. To establish a high degree of accuracy in characterizing the magnitude of burns, the spacecraft spin axis should be along the line of sight to the Earth, providing Doppler measurements with <1 mm/sec accuracy in S-Band. Emission constraints allow such alignment only during certain portions of the mission when the Earth-spacecraft-sun geometry is favorable. The impact of precessions, or burns at times when geometry is not favorable, can be assessed by reconstruction of the spacecraft trajectory using tracking arcs of several days before and after the event.

Williams, Kenneth E.↗