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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1979

Random harmonic analysis program, L221 (TEV156). Volume 2: Supplemental system design and maintenenace document

Volume 2 of a two volume document is presented. A computer program, L222 (TEV 156), available for execution on the CDC 6600 computer is described. The program is capable of calculating steady-state solutions for linear second-order differential equations due to sinusoidal forcing functions. From this, steady-state solutions, generalized coordinates, and load frequency responses may be determined. Statistical characteristics of loads for the forcing function spectral shape may also be calculated using random harmonic analysis techniques. The particular field of application of the program is the analysis of airplane response and loads due to continuous random air turbulence.

Graham, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Short-term solar activity forecasting

A method of forecasting the level of activity of every active region on the surface of the Sun within one to three days is proposed in order to estimate the possibility of the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances and proton events. The forecasting method is a probability process based on statistics. In many of the cases, the accuracy in predicting the short term solar activity was in the range of 70%, although there were many false alarms.

Xie-Zhen, C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Classifying northern forests using Thematic Mapper Simulator data

Thematic Mapper Simulator data were collected over a 23,200 hectare forested area near Baxter State Park in north-central Maine. Photointerpreted ground reference information was used to drive a stratified random sampling procedure for waveband discriminant analyses and to generate training statistics and test pixel accuracies. Stepwise discriminant analyses indicated that the following bands best differentiated the thirteen level II - III cover types (in order of entry): near infrared (0.77 to 0.90 micron), blue (0.46 0.52 micron), first middle infrared (1.53 to 1.73 microns), second middle infrared (2.06 to 2.33 microsn), red (0.63 to 0.69 micron), thermal (10.32 to 12.33 microns). Classification accuracies peaked at 58 percent for thirteen level II-III land-cover classes and at 65 percent for ten level II classes.

Nelson, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

C3H2 observations as a diagnostic probe for molecular clouds

Recently the three-membered ring molecule, cyclopropenylidene, C3H2, has been identified in the laboratory and detected in molecular clouds by Thaddeus, Vrtilek and Gottlieb (1985). This molecule is wide-spread throughout the Galaxy and has been detected in 25 separate sources including cold dust clouds, circumstellar envelopes, HII regions, and the spiral arms observed against the Cas supernova remnant. In order to evaluate the potential of C3H2 as a diagnostic probe for molecular clouds, and to attempt to identify the most useful transitions, statistical equilibrium calculations were carried out for the lowest 24 levels of the ortho species and the lowest 10 levels of the para species. Many of the sources observed by Matthews and Irvine (1985) show evidence of being optically thick in the 1(10)-1(01) line. Consequently, the effects of radiative trapping should be incorporated into the equilibrium calculations. This was done using the Large Velocity Gradient approximation for a spherical cloud of uniform density. Some results of the calculations for T(K)=10K are given. Figures are presented which show contours of the logarithm of the ratio of peak line brightness temperatures for ortho-para pairs of lines at similar frequencies. It appears that the widespread nature of C3H2, the relatively large strength of its spectral lines, and their sensitivity to density and molecular abundance combine to make this a useful molecule for probing physical conditions in molecular clouds. The 1(10)-1(01) and 2(20)-2(11) K-band lines may be especially useful in this regard because of the ease with which they are observed and their unusual density-dependent emission/absorption properties.

Avery, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Aircraft studies of size-dependent aerosol sampling through inlets

Representative measurement of aerosol from aircraft-aspirated systems requires special efforts in order to maintain near isokinetic sampling conditions, estimate aerosol losses in the sample system, and obtain a measurement of sufficient duration to be statistically significant for all sizes of interest. This last point is especially critical for aircraft measurements which typically require fast response times while sampling in clean remote regions. This paper presents size-resolved tests, intercomparisons, and analysis of aerosol inlet performance as determined by a custom laser optical particle counter. Measurements discussed here took place during the Global Backscatter Experiment (1988-1989) and the Central Pacific Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (1988). System configurations are discussed including (1) nozzle design and performance, (2) system transmission efficiency, (3) nonadiabatic effects in the sample line and its effect on the sample-line relative humidity, and (4) the use and calibration of a virtual impactor.

Porter, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Effects of Promethazine on Human Performance, Mood States, and Motion Sickness Tolerance

Intramuscular (IM) injections of promethazine in 25 mg or 50 mg dosages are commonly used to treat space motion sickness in astronauts. The present study examined the effects of IM injections of promethazine on neuropsy-chological performance, mood states, and motion sickness tolerance in humans. Twelve men, mean age 36 plus or minus 3.1 participated in one training (no injections) and three treatment conditions: a 25 mg injection of promethazine, a 50 mg injection of promethazine, and a placebo injection of sterile saline. Each condition, spaced at 7 day intervals, required an 8-10 hr session in which subjects were given four repetitions of 12 performance tasks, and one rotating chair motion sickness test. On the training day subjects were trained on each task to establish stability and proficiency. On treatment days, the order in which the drug or placebo was assigned to subjects was counter-balanced and a double-blind technique was used. Statistically significant decrements in performance were observed on 10 of 12 tasks when subjects were given 25 mg or 50 mg of promethazine as compared to the placebo. Performance decrements were associated with mean blood alcohol dose equivalency levels of 0.085% for 25 mg and 0. 1 37% for 50 mg dosages. The mood scale results showed significant changes in individual subjective experiences with maximum deterioration in the arousal state and fatigue level. When compared to placebo significant increases in motion sickness tolerance were found for both dosages of promethazine. These data suggest that effective dosages of promethazine currently used to counteract motion sickness in astronauts may significantly impair task components of their operational performance.

Cowings, Patricia S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Three-Dimensional Nacelle Aeroacoustics Code With Application to Impedance Education

A three-dimensional nacelle acoustics code that accounts for uniform mean flow and variable surface impedance liners is developed. The code is linked to a commercial version of the NASA-developed General Purpose Solver (for solution of linear systems of equations) in order to obtain the capability to study high frequency waves that may require millions of grid points for resolution. Detailed, single-processor statistics for the performance of the solver in rigid and soft-wall ducts are presented. Over the range of frequencies of current interest in nacelle liner research, noise attenuation levels predicted from the code were in excellent agreement with those predicted from mode theory. The equation solver is memory efficient, requiring only a small fraction of the memory available on modern computers. As an application, the code is combined with an optimization algorithm and used to reduce the impedance spectrum of a ceramic liner. The primary problem with using the code to perform optimization studies at frequencies above I1kHz is the excessive CPU time (a major portion of which is matrix assembly). The research recommends that research be directed toward development of a rapid sparse assembler and exploitation of the multiprocessor capability of the solver to further reduce CPU time.

Watson, Willie R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evidence for a Binary Companion to the Enigmatic Compact Central Object 1E 1207.4-5209

Located in the supernova remnant G296.5+10.0, 1E 1207.4-5209 is a 0.424 s period X-ray pulsar that exhibits strong absorption lines in its energy spectrum. The physical origin of the spectral features in 1E 1207.4-5209 and more generally, the absence of similar features in other radio-quiet neutron stars remains a mystery. Another, possibly related, anomalous property of 1E 1207.4-5209 is its non-monotonic spin frequency evolution. Zavlin, Pavlov & Sanwal(2004) proposed that the irregular spin-down was caused by either (i) frequent, recurrent glitches, (ii) the presence of a fall-back disk or (iii) a binary companion. Here, we report on a sequence of seven XMM-Newton observations of 1E 1207.4-5209 performed during a 40 day window between 2005 June 22 and July 3 1. Due to unanticipated phase noise, we identified three statistically-acceptable phase-coherent timing solutions with frequency time derivatives of +0.9, -2.6, and +1.6 x 10-12 Hz/s (listed in descending order of significance). We concluded that the local frequency derivative during our XMM-Newton observing campaign differs from the long-term spin-down rate by more than an order of magnitude. This measurement strongly supports the binary interpretation for the observed spin irregularities in 1E 1207.4-5209. We identified a family of orbital solutions that are consistent with our phase-connected solution as well as all archival data. We will discuss possible orbital solutions, prospects for constraining binary parameters with future observations, and consequences for the nature of 1E 1207.4-5209.

Woods, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗
NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying High Temperature Corrosion

Alloys designed for high temperature service can form a variety of surface oxides or scales based on the alloy composition, service temperature, gas environment, surface deposits, etc. The most severe environments, including molten salts and liquid metals can result in significant metal loss, void formation and/or pitting. Standard and evolving practices are discussed for measuring these types of degradationincluding measuring oxide scale thickness, internal oxidation and/or metal loss, correlating them to mass change and reporting the results. Manual and automated methodologies to measure oxide thickness and metal loss are reviewed and compared in order to provide a summary of techniques and identify the best practices for quantifying a variety of materials and damage mechanisms and producing statistically meaningful results. Such techniques create datasets useful for improved understanding of corrosion degradation mechanisms, potentially better predictive models and enhanced data analytics.

Su, Yi Feng↗
NASA NTRS1987

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Examining the Role of Environment in a Comprehensive Sample of Compact Groups

Compact groups, with their high number densities, small velocity dispersions, and an interstellar medium that has not been fully processed, provide a local analog to conditions of galaxy interactions in the earlier universe. The frequent and prolonged gravitational encounters that occur in compact groups affect the evolution of the constituent galaxies in a myriad of ways, for example, gas processing and star formation. Recently, a statistically significant "gap" has been discovered in the mid-infrared (MIR: 3.6-8 μm) IRAC color space of compact group galaxies. This gap is not seen in field samples and is a new example of how the compact group environment may affect the evolution of member galaxies. In order to investigate the origin and nature of this gap, we have compiled a larger sample of 37 compact groups in addition to the original 12 groups studied by Johnson et al. (yielding 174 individual galaxies with reliable MIR photometry). We find that a statistically significant deficit of galaxies in this gap region of IRAC color space is persistent in the full sample, lending support to the hypothesis that the compact group environment inhibits moderate specific star formation rates. Using this expanded sample, we have more fully characterized the distribution of galaxies in this color space and quantified the low-density region more fully with respect to MIR bluer and MIR redder colors. We note a curvature in the color-space distribution, which is fully consistent with increasing dust temperature as the activity in a galaxy increases. This full sample of 49 compact groups allows us to subdivide the data according to physical properties of the groups. An analysis of these subsamples indicates that neither projected physical diameter nor density shows a trend in color space within the values represented by this sample. We hypothesize that the apparent lack of a trend is due to the relatively small range of properties in this sample, whose groups have already been pre-selected to be compact and dense. Thus, the relative influence of stochastic effects (such as the particular distribution and amount of star formation in individual galaxies) becomes dominant. We analyze spectral energy distributions of member galaxies as a function of their location in color space and find that galaxies in different regions of MIR color space contain dust with varying temperatures and/or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission.

Environment↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic relativistic viscous hydrodynamics from the Metropolis algorithm

We propose an algorithm for simulating stochastic relativistic fluid dynamics based on Metropolis updates. Each step of the algorithm begins with an update based on ideal hydrodynamics. This is followed by proposing random (spatial) momentum transfers between fluid cells, keeping the total energy fixed. These proposals are then accepted or rejected using the change in entropy as a statistical weight. The algorithm reproduces relativistic viscous hydrodynamics in the “density frame,” which is a formulation of viscous hydrodynamics we review and clarify here. This formulation is first order in time and requires no auxiliary dynamical fields such as Π 𝜇⁢𝜈 . The only parameters are the shear and bulk viscosities and the equation of state. Here, by adopting the 3+1 split of general relativity, we extend the Metropolis algorithm to general space-time coordinates, such as Bjorken coordinates, which are commonly used to simulate heavy-ion collisions.

Hydrodynamic noise↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical analysis of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions measured with angularly resolved Thomson scattering

Angularly resolved Thomson scattering is a novel extension of Thomson scattering, enabling the measurement of the electron velocity distribution function over many orders of magnitude. Here, details of the theoretical basis of the technique and the instrument designed for this measurement are described. Angularly resolved Thomson-scattering data from several experiments are shown with descriptions of the corresponding distribution functions. A reduced model describing the distribution function is given and used to perform a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainty in the measurements. The electron density and temperature were determined to a precision of 12% and 21%, respectively, on average, while all other parameters defining the distribution function were generally determined to better than 20%. It was found that these uncertainties were primarily due to limited signal to noise and instrumental effects. Furthermore, measurements with this level of precision were sufficient to distinguish between Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian distribution functions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

A High Performance Computing Approach to Tree Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery Using a Probabilistic Learning Framework

Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets, which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.

Segments↗