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At least 991 records · Page 55

Final Technical Report for Contract No. DE-EE0006332, "Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation"

This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physics-Informed Deep Neural Network Method for Limited Observability State Estimation

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, due to for example cyber attacks, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact of Distributed Energy Resources on the Bulk Electric System: Combined Modeling of Transmission and Distribution Systems and Benchmark Case Studies

The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on modern distribution systems introduces intermittent power generation, stochastic system operating conditions, and bi-directional power flows that impact the system responses to various types of disturbances and may pose challenges to the operations and reliability of the Bulk Electric System (BES). In order to understand the impact of DERs on the planning and operation of the BES, the distribution system can no longer be represented as a single load at a node on the transmission system. At the same time, advanced control capabilities of DERs offer potential opportunities for improving BES reliability by transforming DERs from a passive “do no harm” resource to an active “support reliability” resource when applied in a planned and well-thought-out manner. This concept is often described as DER “flexibility.” With the persistent trend towards a high- penetration of DERs in distribution systems, regulators such as the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), planning coordinators and grid operators are in serious need of understanding the full-spectrum impact of DERs on the BES to ensure secure and reliable grid planning and operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enhanced Accident-Tolerant Fuel Performance and Reliability for Aggressive iPWR/SMR Operation

This project will develop a process that evaluates the whole-core operational and safety performance of a reactor-and-fuel combination by integrating core-wide three-dimensional neutronics with Moose/Bison and Peregrine multi-physics fuel performance assessments using explicit time and space dependent fuel rod operational power histories generated in the whole-core analysis. Demonstration of the process will target large contemporary PWRs with traditional UO2 fuel and Zircaloy cladding to establish a baseline analysis, while the innovative application of this project will extend the developed process to evaluate operational and safety performance, via reactor physics and fuel performance analyses, of key emerging/leading concepts of enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATFs) within increasingly aggressive operational scenarios such as loadfollow maneuvers in PWRs and long-cycle rodded and unborated operation in small modular reactors (SMRs). The ATFs to be considered include standard UO2 fuel pellets cladded with advanced iron-based alloys (FeCrAl) as well as particle-based Fully Ceramic Microencapsulated (FCM) fuels with FeCrAl or Zircaloy cladding, but the process being developed and demonstrated could ultimately be applied to any candidate ATF concept in a light water reactor. In fact, given that ATF R&D priorities are in a dynamic state, the scope related to ATFs will be targeted for the second half of this three-year project so to provide some opportunity to strengthen the programmatic alignment of this project with the DOE Fuels Campaign, by identifying the most promising and relevant ATFs at that time for further evaluation, while the early part of the project will focus upon fine-tuning the process herein developed and upon generating the baseline analyses against which a larger scope of ATF concepts can be compared.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Best Practices for the Design, Development, and Operation of Robust and Reliable Space Vehicle Guidance, Navigation, and Control Systems

This document summarizes and updates the NESC Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) Technical Discipline Team’s (TDT) work to synthesize and document the current best practices for the design & development of robust and reliable GN&C systems for robotic and crewed (human-rated) spacecraft. These GN&C best practices for future science and exploration missions were derived from the lessons learned, both positive and negative, on earlier spaceflight projects, both robotic and crewed. An attempt has been made to capture preferred practices that reflect the key considerations, trades, and processes directly attributed to past mission success.

Guidance, Navigation, and Control↗

Design Enhancements for the SNS RFQ Coaxial Coupler

The H⁻ ion linear accelerator at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory operates with reliability that routinely surpasses 90% during scheduled beam operation. With the ambitious goal of eventually achieving at least 95% availability, several upgrade and improvement projects are ongoing. One such project is the modification of the coaxial couplers that transfer radio frequency (RF) power to the accelerator’s Radio Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ). The proposed modification utilizes stub sections and capacitive coupling to construct a physically separable assembly with DC isolation. With a separated coupler assembly, the section that includes the magnetic coupling loop can be permanently mounted to the RFQ which would eliminate the need to re-adjust the couplers after maintenance activities, upgrades, and repairs. Additionally, the modified design would provide increased multipaction suppression with DC biasing and potentially lower thermal gradients across the device. This paper presents the design and simulation results of the project.

Toby, George↗

Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules and Systems: Experience and Results from International Research and Pilot Applications

Within the framework of IEA PVPS, Task 13 aims to provide support to market actors working to improve the operation, the reliability and the quality of PV components and systems. Operational data from PV systems in different climate zones compiled within the project will help provide the basis for estimates of the current situation regarding PV reliability and performance. The general setting of Task 13 provides a common platform to summarize and report on technical aspects affecting the quality, performance, reliability and lifetime of PV systems in a wide variety of environments and applications. By working together across national boundaries we can all take advantage of research and experience from each member country and combine and integrate this knowledge into valuable summaries of best practices and methods for ensuring PV systems perform at their optimum and continue to provide competitive return on investment. Task 13 has so far managed to create the right framework for the calculations of various parameters that can give an indication of the quality of PV components and systems. The framework is now there and can be used by the industry who has expressed appreciation towards the results included in the high-quality reports. The IEA PVPS countries participating in Task 13 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United States of America.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Designing New Materials for Photovoltaics: Opportunities for Lowering Cost and Increasing Performance through Advanced Material Innovations

Within the framework of IEA PVPS, Task 13 aims to provide support to market actors working to improve the operation, the reliability and the quality of PV components and systems. Operational data from PV systems in different climate zones compiled within the project will help provide the basis for estimates of the current situation regarding PV reliability and performance. The general setting of Task 13 provides a common platform to summarize and report on technical aspects affecting the quality, performance, reliability and lifetime of PV systems in a wide variety of environments and applications. By working together across national boundaries we can all take advantage of research and experience from each member country and combine and integrate this knowledge into valuable summaries of best practices and methods for ensuring PV systems perform at their optimum and continue to provide competitive return on investment. Task 13 has so far managed to create the right framework for the calculations of various parameters that can give an indication of the quality of PV components and systems. The framework is now there and can be used by the industry who has expressed appreciation towards the results included in the high-quality reports. The IEA PVPS countries participating in Task 13 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United States of America.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Key Reliability Drivers of Liquid Propulsion Engines and A Reliability Model for Sensitivity Analysis

This paper is to address the in-flight reliability of a liquid propulsion engine system for a launch vehicle. We first establish a comprehensive list of system and sub-system reliability drivers for any liquid propulsion engine system. We then build a reliability model to parametrically analyze the impact of some reliability parameters. We present sensitivity analysis results for a selected subset of the key reliability drivers using the model. Reliability drivers identified include: number of engines for the liquid propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine thrust size, reusability, engine de-rating or up-rating, engine-out design (including engine-out switching reliability, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction), propellant specific hazards, engine start and cutoff transient hazards, engine combustion cycles, vehicle and engine interface and interaction hazards, engine health management system, engine modification, engine ground start hold down with launch commit criteria, engine altitude start (1 in. start), Multiple altitude restart (less than 1 restart), component, subsystem and system design, manufacturing/ground operation support/pre and post flight check outs and inspection, extensiveness of the development program. We present some sensitivity analysis results for the following subset of the drivers: number of engines for the propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine de-rating or up-rating requirements, engine-out design, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction, and engine health management system implementation (basic redlines and more advanced health management systems).

Huang, Zhao-Feng↗

Data-Driven Reliability Assessment for Marine Renewable Energy Enabled Island Power Systems

Marine renewable energy (MRE) resources are highly predictable and persistent sources of energy, when compared to other renewable sources like wind and solar. These lend them favorably for potential grid applications, particularly for coastal/island power systems where their generation potential is high. Island power systems, on the other hand, are either supported by onsite generation or by transported energy from the mainland grid. Therefore, robustness of grid operations depend heavily on the diversity of onsite generation resources and the reliability of the power transportation medium. Issues relating to either of these two factors may lead to impediments in smooth and reliable operation of the power system. Analyzing and quantifying operational risks for such island power systems with diverse non-conventional generation portfolios through conventional techniques can also prove to be cumbersome, often requiring multiple different inputs. Therefore, in this paper, we firstly present a novel, purely data-driven formulation which quantifies the operational reliability of such island power systems through minimal input data. Specifically, our proposed methodology only relies on historical knowledge of typical hourly load and generation profiles to quantify associated operational risks. Subsequently, we use our proposed formulation to evaluate the effectiveness of MRE resources (over other renewable resources like wind and solar) in providing resilience benefits to island power systems. The proposed formulation is demonstrated with a case study for an island power system in Nantucket, MA.

Chalishazar, Vishvas H.↗

Cyber-Physical Dynamic System (CPDS) Modeling for Frequency Regulation and AGC Services of Distributed Energy Resources

The substantial integration of renewable energy brings significant challenges to balance the system in real time because of the variability and intermittency of renewable power. For the reliable system operation, the frequency regulation service is used to stabilize the system frequency through automatically balancing the system generation and load. On one hand, with the substantially increasing deployment of renewable energy in electricity system, the requirement of frequency regulation (FR) services increases significantly. On the other hand, the current main resource of FR services, the controllable conventional generation, is continuously decreasing in the system generation mix. This means that in the future high renewable penetration power system, additional and alternative reliable FR services providers such as distributed energy storage (DES) resources should be explored. Although the capability of utility-scale energy storage to provide FR services has been demonstrated, the integrated control and dynamic modeling of distributed energy resource (DER) providing frequency regulation grid services has been rarely explored. There are several challenges to adopt DERs to provide reliable grid services as illustrated in FERC 755. First, the distributed installation of DES requires a comprehensive cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) modeling to fully consider the impacts of the communication latency variability on its real time FR provision capability. Unlike the conventional generators, there are two-layer communication between DERs and system operators which increase the communication delay. Second, unlike the conventional generators whose dynamic models have been comprehensively studied, the difference among individual DER components' power-dynamic characteristic brings challenges in the accurate dynamic AGC modeling of its power-frequency relationship. Third, the temporal dependent state of charge uncertainty of DERs challenges DERs' power and frequency regulation capacities scheduling in the look-ahead generation scheduling. Therefore, the aggregator should optimize the frequency regulation provision from individual DER in real time. To overcome these challenges, this project proposes a cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) model to handle the uncertainty of DERs two-layer communication latency and power dynamics. The variability of DERs' communication delay and dynamic constraints will be comprehensively modeled. The DERs' AGC model with communication delay is designed to validate DESs' frequency regulation services. Like current performance-based frequency regulation evaluation, the delivery of DERs' frequency regulation will be assessed through post-analysis of the actual AGC response with respect to the AGC control signal from system operators. Consequently, the reliability improvement with DERs providing reliable frequency regulation services can be evaluated from a comprehensive perspective considering all the dynamics of communication and power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Project Accomplishments Summary - SC12/01790.00. Concentrating Photovoltaics Component and System Research

Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Cool Earth Solar, Inc. (CES) collaborated to evaluate and validate a new Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) technology for the utility-scale power market. Project goals included demonstration of CES's tracking and energy production mechanism and operation in a realworld configuration to validate and evaluate mechanical reliability, uptime, operations and maintenance, and energy production models. The test facility was located at Sandia California’s Livermore Valley Open Campus (LVOC). The collaboration allowed CES to quickly move from design concept to system prototype deployment in an operational environment, with approximately 17kW of engineering samples deployed. However, economic pressure from inexpensive flat panel photovoltaic modules caused a major contraction in the broader CPV market. CES was ultimately unable to overcome this economic pressure and discontinued efforts to develop their novel CPV product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

General Aviation Aircraft Reliability Study

This reliability study was performed in order to provide the aviation community with an estimate of Complex General Aviation (GA) Aircraft System reliability. To successfully improve the safety and reliability for the next generation of GA aircraft, a study of current GA aircraft attributes was prudent. This was accomplished by benchmarking the reliability of operational Complex GA Aircraft Systems. Specifically, Complex GA Aircraft System reliability was estimated using data obtained from the logbooks of a random sample of the Complex GA Aircraft population.

Pettit, Duane↗