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DOE OSTI2014

MAGNETIC HELICITY AND ENERGY SPECTRA OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION

We compute for the first time the magnetic helicity and energy spectra of the solar active region NOAA 11158 during 2011 February 11-15 at 20° southern heliographic latitude using observational photospheric vector magnetograms. We adopt the isotropic representation of the Fourier-transformed two-point correlation tensor of the magnetic field. The sign of the magnetic helicity turns out to be predominantly positive at all wavenumbers. This sign is consistent with what is theoretically expected for the southern hemisphere. The magnetic helicity normalized to its theoretical maximum value, here referred to as relative helicity, is around 4% and strongest at intermediate wavenumbers of k ≈ 0.4 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to a scale of 2π/k ≈ 16 Mm. The same sign and a similar value are also found for the relative current helicity evaluated in real space based on the vertical components of magnetic field and current density. The modulus of the magnetic helicity spectrum shows a k {sup –11/3} power law at large wavenumbers, which implies a k {sup –5/3} spectrum for the modulus of the current helicity. A k {sup –5/3} spectrum is also obtained for the magnetic energy. The energy spectra evaluated separately from the horizontal and vertical fields agree for wavenumbers below 3 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to scales above 2 Mm. This gives some justification to our assumption of isotropy and places limits resulting from possible instrumental artifacts at small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

PENUMBRAL-LIKE FILAMENTS IN THE SOLAR PHOTOSPHERE AS A MANIFESTATION OF FLUX EMERGENCE

Rare observations of the solar photosphere show the appearance of orphan penumbrae, filamentary structures very similar to a bundle of sunspot penumbral filaments not connected to any umbra. Lim et al. found an orphan penumbra in active region NOAA 11391 near a mature sunspot. We analyze a different data set to study the same structure using the Solar Optical Telescope on board the Hinode satellite. Spectropolarimetric measurements along the Fe I 630.2 nm pair, complemented by G-band and Ca II H filtergrams, show the evolution of this penumbral-like structure and reveal that an emerging flux region is its ancestor. We find new evidence for the interaction between the emerging flux and the pre-existing field that leads to a brightening observed near the base of the chromosphere. Our analysis suggests that as a result of the combination of photospheric flux emergence and magneto-convection in inclined fields the horizontal component of the emerging field can be trapped in the photosphere by the overlying fields and form a structure resembling penumbral filaments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

PROPAGATION OF THE 2012 MARCH CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO HELIOPAUSE

In 2012 March the Sun exhibited extraordinary activities. In particular, the active region NOAA AR 11429 emitted a series of large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which were imaged by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory as it rotated with the Sun from the east to west. These sustained eruptions are expected to generate a global shell of disturbed material sweeping through the heliosphere. A cluster of shocks and interplanetary CMEs were observed near the Earth, and are propagated outward from 1 AU using an MHD model. The transient streams interact with each other, which erases memory of the source and results in a large merged interaction region (MIR) with a preceding shock. The MHD model predicts that the shock and MIR would reach 120 AU around 2013 April 22, which agrees well with the period of radio emissions and the time of a transient disturbance in galactic cosmic rays detected by Voyager 1. These results are important for understanding the ''fate'' of CMEs in the outer heliosphere and provide confidence that the heliopause is located around 120 AU from the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF TETHER-CUTTING RECONNECTION DURING A MAJOR SOLAR EVENT FROM 2014 FEBRUARY 24 TO 25

Using multi-wavelength data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigated two successive solar flares, a C5.1 confined flare and an X4.9 ejective flare with a halo coronal mass ejection, in NOAA active region 11990 from 2014 February 24 to 25. Before the confined flare onset, EUV brightening beneath the filament was detected. As the flare began, a twisted helical flux rope (FR) wrapping around the filament moved upward and then stopped, and in the meantime an obvious X-ray source below it was observed. Prior to the ejective X4.9 flare, some pre-existing loop structures in the active region interacted with each other, which produced a brightening region beneath the filament. Meanwhile, a small flaring loop appeared below the interaction region and some new helical lines connecting the far ends of the loop structures were gradually formed and continually added into the former twisted FR. Then, due to the resulting imbalance between the magnetic pressure and tension, the new FR, together with the filament, erupted outward. Our observations coincide well with a tether-cutting model, suggesting that the two flares probably have the same triggering mechanism, i.e., tether-cutting reconnection. To our knowledge, this is the first direct observation of tether-cutting reconnection occurring between pre-existing loops in an active region. In the ejective flare case, the erupting filament exhibited an Ω-like kinked structure and underwent an exponential rise after a slow-rise phase, indicating that the kink instability might be also responsible for the eruption initiation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

MAGNETIC AND DYNAMICAL PHOTOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES OBSERVED DURING AN M3.2 SOLAR FLARE

This Letter reports on a set of full-Stokes spectropolarimetric observations in the near-infrared He i 10830 Å spectral region covering the pre-flare, flare, and post-flare phases of an M3.2 class solar flare. The flare originated on 2013 May 17 and belonged to active region NOAA 11748. We detected strong He i 10830 Å emission in the flare. The red component of the He i triplet peaks at an intensity ratio to the continuum of about 1.86. During the flare, He i Stokes V is substantially larger and appears reversed compared to the usually larger Si i Stokes V profile. The photospheric Si i inversions of the four Stokes profiles reveal the following: (1) the magnetic field strength in the photosphere decreases or is even absent during the flare phase, as compared to the pre-flare phase. However, this decrease is not permanent. After the flare, the magnetic field recovers its pre-flare configuration in a short time (i.e., 30 minutes after the flare). (2) In the photosphere, the line of sight velocities show a regular granular up- and downflow pattern before the flare erupts. During the flare, upflows (blueshifts) dominate the area where the flare is produced. Evaporation rates of ∼10{sup −3} and ∼10{sup −4} g cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} have been derived in the deep and high photosphere, respectively, capable of increasing the chromospheric density by a factor of two in about 400 s.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

THE CONFINED X-CLASS FLARES OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGION 2192

The unusually large active region (AR) NOAA 2192, observed in 2014 October, was outstanding in its productivity of major two-ribbon flares without coronal mass ejections. On a large scale, a predominantly north–south oriented magnetic system of arcade fields served as a strong top and lateral confinement for a series of large two-ribbon flares originating from the core of the AR. The large initial separation of the flare ribbons, together with an almost absent growth in ribbon separation, suggests a confined reconnection site high up in the corona. Based on a detailed analysis of the confined X1.6 flare on October 22, we show how exceptional the flaring of this AR was. We provide evidence for repeated energy release, indicating that the same magnetic field structures were repeatedly involved in magnetic reconnection. We find that a large number of electrons was accelerated to non-thermal energies, revealing a steep power-law spectrum, but that only a small fraction was accelerated to high energies. The total non-thermal energy in electrons derived (on the order of 10{sup 25} J) is considerably higher than that in eruptive flares of class X1, and corresponds to about 10% of the excess magnetic energy present in the active-region corona.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

OSCILLATING LIGHT WALL ABOVE A SUNSPOT LIGHT BRIDGE

With the high tempo-spatial Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph 1330 Å images, we find that many bright structures are rooted in the light bridge of NOAA 12192, forming a light wall. The light wall is brighter than the surrounding areas, and the wall top is much brighter than the wall body. The New Vacuum Solar Telescope Hα and the Solar Dynamics Observatory 171 and 131 Å images are also used to study the light-wall properties. In 1330, 171, and 131 Å, the top of the wall has a higher emission, while in the Hα line, the wall-top emission is very low. The wall body corresponds to bright areas in 1330 Å and dark areas in the other lines. The top of the light wall moves upward and downward successively, performing oscillations in height. The deprojected mean height, amplitude, oscillation velocity, and the dominant period are determined to be 3.6 Mm, 0.9 Mm, 15.4 km s{sup −1}, and 3.9 minutes, respectively. We interpret the oscillations of the light wall as the leakage of p-modes from below the photosphere. The constant brightness enhancement of the wall top implies the existence of some kind of atmospheric heating, e.g., via the persistent small-scale reconnection or the magneto-acoustic waves. In another series of 1330 Å images, we find that the wall top in the upward motion phase is significantly brighter than in the downward phase. This kind of oscillation may be powered by the energy released due to intermittent impulsive magnetic reconnection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery

We consider the use of probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery. This framework is constructed by assuming that the target variables are sampled from a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the inputs. Consequently, the overall formulation sets up a procedure to predict the hyperparameters of this distribution which are then used to compute an objective function given training data. We demonstrate that this framework has the ability to provide for prediction confidence intervals based on the assumption of a probabilistic posterior, given an appropriate model architecture and adequate training data. The applicability of the present framework to cases with noisy measurements and limited observations is also assessed. To demonstrate the capabilities of this framework, we consider canonical regression problems of fluid dynamics from the viewpoint of reduced-order modeling and spatial data recovery for four canonical data sets. The examples considered in this study arise from (i) the shallow-water equations, (ii) a two-dimensional cylinder flow, (iii) the wake of a NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap, and (iv) the NOAA sea surface temperature data set. Furthermore, the present results indicate that the probabilistic neural network not only produces a machine-learning-based fluid flow surrogate model but also systematically quantifies the uncertainty therein to assist with model interpretability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Joint Probabilistic Forecasts of Temperature and Solar Irradiance

In this paper, a mathematical relationship between temperature and solar irradiance is established in order to reduce the sample space and provide joint probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts can then be used for the purpose of stochastic optimization in power systems. A Volterra system type of model is derived to characterize the dependence of temperature on solar irradiance. A dataset from NOAA weather station in California is used to validate the fit of the model. Using the model, probabilistic forecasts of both temperature and irradiance are provided and the performance of the forecasting technique highlights the efficacy of the proposed approach. Results are indicative of the fact that the underlying correlation between temperature and irradiance is well captured and will therefore be useful to produce future scenarios of temperature and irradiance while approximating the underlying sample space appropriately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗

DOE OSTI2014

Retrieval of Areal-averaged Spectral Surface Albedo from Transmission Data Alone: Computationally Simple and Fast Approach

We introduce and evaluate a simple retrieval of areal-averaged surface albedo using ground-based measurements of atmospheric transmission alone at five wavelengths (415, 500, 615, 673 and 870nm), under fully overcast conditions. Our retrieval is based on a one-line semi-analytical equation and widely accepted assumptions regarding the weak spectral dependence of cloud optical properties, such as cloud optical depth and asymmetry parameter, in the visible and near-infrared spectral range. To illustrate the performance of our retrieval, we use as input measurements of spectral atmospheric transmission from Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR). These MFRSR data are collected at two well-established continental sites in the United States supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The areal-averaged albedos obtained from the MFRSR are compared with collocated and coincident Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) white-sky albedo. In particular, these comparisons are made at four MFRSR wavelengths (500, 615, 673 and 870nm) and for four seasons (winter, spring, summer and fall) at the ARM site using multi-year (2008-2013) MFRSR and MODIS data. Good agreement, on average, for these wavelengths results in small values (≤0.01) of the corresponding root mean square errors (RMSEs) for these two sites. The obtained RMSEs are comparable with those obtained previously for the shortwave albedos (MODIS-derived versus tower-measured) for these sites during growing seasons. We also demonstrate good agreement between tower-based daily-averaged surface albedos measured for “nearby” overcast and non-overcast days. Thus, our retrieval originally developed for overcast conditions likely can be extended for non-overcast days by interpolating between overcast retrievals.

atmospheric transmission↗

DOE OSTI2018

Features of Short-Period Oscillations of Microwave Emission from the Solar Active Region before the Flare

The radiation of microwave sources above sunspots at a frequency of 17 GHz gives information about the parameters of solar plasma in the regions where the magneti-field strength is B ~ 2000 G in the transition region between the chromosphere and corona. Short-period oscillations (with a period of several minutes) of microwave emission from solar active regions (ARs) reflect wave processes in magnetic flux tubes of sunspots. Short-period oscillations of microwave emission from AR NOAA 12242 before two flares on December 17, 2014 are analyzed. This analysis is based on solar radio images obtained by means of the Nobeyama Radio Heliograph with a 10″−15″ two-dimensional spatial resolution. The radio maps of the whole solar disk were synthesized in a nonstandard mode with a cadence of 10 s and an averaging time of 10 s. An increase in the power of about ten-minute oscillations of microwave radiation approximately 40 to 50 min before the M1.5 flare (01: 00 UT) is found. On the same day, an increase in the power of ten-minute oscillations is observed about 60 min before the M8.7 flare (04: 42 UT). This effect is similar to the effect found earlier by two groups of authors independently for three-minute oscillations—namely, they observed a sharp increase in three-minute oscillations 15 to 20 min before the radio burst accompanying the flare. The effect in question may be interpreted as an relationship ofMHD waves propagating along the magnetic flux tube of a sunspot and the onset of the solar flare.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Self-organization of local magnetoplasma structures in the upper layers of the solar convection zone

Self-organization and evolution of magnetoplasma structures in the upper layers of the solar convection zone are discussed as a process of diffuse aggregation of magnetic flux tubes. Equations describing the tube motion under the action of magnetic interaction forces, hydrodynamic forces, and random forces are written explicitly. The process of aggregation of magnetic flux tubes into magnetic flux clusters of different shapes and dimensions is simulated numerically. The obtained structures are compared with the observed morphological types of sunspot groups. The quantitative comparison with the observational data was performed by comparing the fractal dimensions of the photospheric magnetic structures observed in solar active regions with those of structures obtained in the numerical experiment. The model has the following free parameters: the numbers of magnetic flux tubes with opposite polarities on the considered area element (Nn and Ns), the average radius of the cross section of the magnetic flux tube (a), its effective length (l), the twist factor of the tube field (k), and the absolute value of the average velocity of chaotic tube displacements (d). Variations in these parameters in physically reasonable limits leads to the formation of structures (tube clusters of different morphological types) having different fractal dimensions. Using the NOAA 10488 active region, which appeared and developed into a complicated configuration near the central meridian, as an example, it is shown that good quantitative agreement between the fractal dimensions is achieved at the following parameters of the model: Nn = Ns = 250 ± 50; a = 150 ± 50 km; l ∼ 5000 km, and d = 80 ± 10 m/s. These results do not contradict the observational data and theoretical estimates obtained in the framework of the Parker “spaghetti” model and provide new information on the physical processes resulting in the origin and evolution of local magnetic plasma structures in the near-photospheric layers of the solar convection zone.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Panel-Segmentation [SWR-21-18]

Panel-Segmentation contains the scripts for automated metadata extraction of solar PV installations, using satellite imagery coupled with computer vision techniques. In this package, the user can perform the following actions: *Automatically generate a satellite image using a set of lat-long coordinates, and a Google Maps API key. Users would need to set up a Google Cloud account and get a Maps Static API key. Please refer to Setting Up Google Maps Static API Key section for this process. *Perform image segmentation on the satellite image, to locate the solar array(s) in the image on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using an image segmentation model (panel_detection_model.pth). Get classification of the installation (rooftop, ground mounted fixed-tilt or tracking, carport, etc). *Perform azimuth estimation on each solar array cluster in the masked image. *Detect solar panels and get its latitude, longitude, and address within a geographic bounding box through the SOL-Searcher Pipeline. *Detect and calculate hurricane damage on solar installations given pre-hurricane and post-hurricane satellite imagery through the Hurricane Detection Pipeline. *Detect and calculate hail damage on solar installations given satellite imagery through the Hail Detection pipeline. *Convert NOAA MESH (Maximum Estimated Size of Hail) grib2 files into kml or geojson files. *Estimate tilt and azimuth of a solar array by processing USGS LiDAR data for the array’s location.

Edun, Ayobami↗

DOE OSTI2015

Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) for Analysis and Comparison of Reanalyses and Other Datasets

While atmospheric reanalysis datasets are widely used in climate science, many technical issues hinder comparing them to each other and to observations. The reanalysis fields are stored in diverse file architectures, data formats, and resolutions. Their metadata, such as variable name and units, can also differ. Individual users have to download the fields, convert them to a common format, store them locally, change variable names, regrid if needed, and convert units. Even if a dataset can be read via the Open-Source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (commonly known as OPeNDAP) or a similar protocol, most of this work is still needed. All of these tasks take time, effort, and money. Our group at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado and affiliated colleagues at the NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division have expertise both in making reanalysis datasets available and in creating web-based climate analysis tools that have been widely used throughout the meteorological community. To overcome some of the obstacles in reanalysis intercomparison, we have created a set of web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) at www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/writ/. WRIT allows users to easily plot and compare reanalysis datasets, and to test hypotheses. For standard pressure-level and surface variables there are tools to plot trajectories, monthly mean maps and vertical cross sections, and monthly mean time series. Some observational datasets are also included. Users can refine date, statistics, and plotting options. WRIT also facilitates the mission of the Reanalyses.org website as a convenient toolkit for studying the reanalysis datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability

The Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) is a collection of flagship U.S. weather and climate models and model components that are being instrumented to conform to interoperability conventions, documented to follow metadata standards, and made available either under open-source terms or to credentialed users. Furthermore, the ESPS represents a culmination of efforts to create a common Earth system model architecture, and the advent of increasingly coordinated model development activities in the United States. ESPS component interfaces are based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), community-developed software for building and coupling models, and the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, a set of ESMF-based component templates and interoperability conventions. Our shared infrastructure simplifies the process of model coupling by guaranteeing that components conform to a set of technical and semantic behaviors. The ESPS encourages distributed, multiagency development of coupled modeling systems; controlled experimentation and testing; and exploration of novel model configurations, such as those motivated by research involving managed and interactive ensembles. ESPS codes include the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and the Modular Ocean Model (MOM); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); and the NASA ModelE climate model and the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Risks of Contracting the Acquisition and Processing of the Nation’s Weather and Climate Data to the Private Sector

Here, we are deeply concerned with the trend toward the purchase of commercial weather and climate data by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other government agencies that may follow. One major concern is for the stability of both the raw and processed forms of these datasets as commercial enterprises come and go. Also of concern is the loss of free, publicly available data, which provide the backbone for much of the non-profit research at universities, government laboratories, and other nonprofit organizations. Related to this latter point is the questionable practice of private companies gaining the rights over data collected by instruments paid for by United States taxpayers. This letter highlights recent events that prompted our concerns and provides arguments in favor of maintaining an open and free data policy, which has established the United States as the global leader in supporting weather and climate operations, applications, basic research, and education.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Observational Field Campaign

The science of wind energy forecasting has taken a leap forward with the unique meteorological observations gathered in complex terrain during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) funded program, with private-sector and university partners, which aims to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts of wind speed in complex terrain for wind energy applications. A core component of WFIP2 was an 18-month field campaign which took place in the U.S. Pacific Northwest between October 2015 and March 2017. A large suite of instrumentation was deployed in a series of telescoping arrays, ranging from 500 km across to a densely instrumented 2 x 2 km area similar in size to a high-resolution NWP model grid cell. Observations from these instruments are being used to improve our understanding of the meteorological phenomena that affect wind energy production in complex terrain, and to evaluate and improve model physical parameterization schemes. We present several brief case studies using these observations to describe phenomena that are routinely difficult to forecast, including wintertime cold pools, diurnally driven gap flows, and mountain waves/wakes. Observing system and data product improvements developed during WFIP2 are also described.

17 WIND ENERGY↗